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recent bookmarks from yencarnacionElon Musk on AGI Safety, Superintelligence, and Neuralink (2024) | EP #91 - YouTube2024-03-29T06:28:54+00:00
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yencarnacion>>
s - Specific
m - Measurable
a - Attainable
r - Relevant
t - Time-bound
<<<
]]>youtube video videos smart goal goals atomic habit habits daily report card journal journaling 12 week yearhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:yencarnacion/b:49452dcc8a50/The Stock Market is 'Priced to Insanity'. - YouTube2024-03-18T21:07:41+00:00
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gu8smLhXkuo
yencarnacion>>
If Monday so far is the highest traded point for the last 3 days, i.e.. Monday Tuesday Wednesday, then how often is Thursday going to trade below the low of Wednesday?
I found there were a total of 25 times, when I was faced with this possibility, i.e. Monday was so far the highest point of the week, and Tuesday and Wednesday were weak.
Out of those 25 times, the Dow trade below the Wednesday low a total of 21 times.
<<<
15:00 if Thursday is higher than Friday then what does Monday look like
15:15
>>>
* Another scenario that I have dreamt up is the idea of weakness going into the weekend.
* Specifically, what happens to "Monday" if the previous Friday trades below the highs of Thursday?
* Over the last 52 weeks, there were 21 instances where the price action on Friday was unable to trade above the highest point of the previous day, Thursday.
* I then looked at what happened on the following Monday. If there was a holiday on the Monday, I would view the price action on the Tuesday.
* Considering the random nature of the markets on a day by day basis, there shouldn't be a pattern, and if there is, I have found an edge to exploit.
<<<
16:41 20 out of 21 times based on the last 252 trading days based on the last 21 observations the market has traded lower on the Monday
17:14 >>>
* Out of 256 trading days, how many days did the Dow make a gap up or down? The answer is 206 days.
* The Dow made no meaningful gap only 50 times in the last year. By "meaningful" I mean a gap of more than 10 points.
Next I will differentiate between
* The Dow made a gap and it was filled within the same trading day.
* Dow made a gap and it was not filled on the same, but within 2 additional trading days.
* Dow made a gap and it was not filled on the day or the next 2 days.
<<<
17:18 the odds of a gap being filled on the day is 58 percent
19:59 78% of all gaps get filled at least within three days
20:34 High or Low of the Day
>>>
All 5min bars:
1st bar of the day has a 20% chance of being the HIGH or the LOW of the day.
But, if we see a BIG BULL BAR after a gap down, or a BIG BEAR BAR after a gap up, then the odds are now 30% that we just saw the low or the high of the day.
By 30 minutes in, or by bar 7, there is now a 50% chance that the high or low of the day is formed.
By the close of the 13th bar, around 1 hour into the trading session, the odds are now 70% that we have seen the high or the low of the day.
By bar 18, there is now a 90% chance we have seen the H or L for the day.
By bar 78, there is a 99.99% chance you have seen the high or the low of the day
<<<
]]>youtube video videos day trading daytrading trader tom hougaard normal does not make money doesnt best loser wins psychology thinking in scenarios scenario analysis data crunching science statistic statisticshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:yencarnacion/b:603c3c57a903/Trading Psychology Event | A Trading Framework | Part 5 - YouTube2024-03-18T02:55:22+00:00
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