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    <title>Ed-Tech, WTF</title>
    <dc:date>2020-11-11T17:32:31+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://edtech.wtf</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>education digital-pedagogy prediction futures history repetition</dc:subject>
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    <title>Ancient magicians as innovation consultants. Also birds (Interconnected)</title>
    <dc:date>2020-10-06T14:33:06+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://interconnected.org/home/2020/10/05/birds</link>
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    <title>Elicit</title>
    <dc:date>2020-09-01T20:29:46+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://elicit.ought.org</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>prediction tools crowdsourcing markets probability</dc:subject>
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    <title>CSET Foretell</title>
    <dc:date>2020-09-01T20:29:39+00:00</dc:date>
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    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Foretell is a crowd forecasting pilot project launched by Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology that focuses on questions relevant to technology-security policy. We are seeking forecasters with related experience or interest to help us inform policymakers."]]></description>
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    <title>PredictIt</title>
    <dc:date>2020-09-01T20:29:38+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.predictit.org</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>prediction markets</dc:subject>
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    <title>What went wrong with the media’s coronavirus coverage? - Vox</title>
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    <link>https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/4/13/21214114/media-coronavirus-pandemic-coverage-cdc-should-you-wear-masks</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>covid19 risk communication long-tail prediction media-studies</dc:subject>
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    <title>A Failure, But Not Of Prediction | Slate Star Codex</title>
    <dc:date>2020-04-15T20:18:15+00:00</dc:date>
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    <title>302 Found</title>
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    <link>https://onezero.medium.com/how-science-fiction-imagined-the-2020s-f8e98a5bc729</link>
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    <title>Charlie Stross's CCC talk: the future of psychotic AIs can be read in today's sociopathic corporations / Boing Boing</title>
    <dc:date>2018-11-02T21:12:15+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://boingboing.net/2017/12/29/llcs-are-slow-ais.html</link>
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    <title>there is no psychohistory, and there never will be – scatterplot</title>
    <dc:date>2018-02-22T21:44:17+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://scatter.wordpress.com/2018/02/22/there-is-no-psychohistory-and-there-never-will-be/</link>
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<item rdf:about="http://tasat.ucsd.edu">
    <title>TASAT – There's a Story about That</title>
    <dc:date>2017-11-20T19:54:48+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://tasat.ucsd.edu</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>sf fiction futures futurism prediction policy</dc:subject>
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<item rdf:about="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/11/humans-are-bad-at-predicting-futures-that-dont-benefit-them/544709/">
    <title>Humans Are Bad at Predicting Futures That Don’t Benefit Them - The Atlantic</title>
    <dc:date>2017-11-02T18:52:12+00:00</dc:date>
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<item rdf:about="http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/our-weather-prediction-models-keep-getting-better-and-hurricane-irma-is-the-proof">
    <title>Our Weather-Prediction Models Keep Getting Better, and Hurricane Irma Is the Proof | The New Yorker</title>
    <dc:date>2017-09-07T15:11:48+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/our-weather-prediction-models-keep-getting-better-and-hurricane-irma-is-the-proof</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>weather climate meteorology science accuracy prediction models</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:fc41d78ca11c/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:weather"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:climate"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:meteorology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:accuracy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:models"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2017/06/more_science_fiction_can_help_us_create_a_better_tomorrow.html">
    <title>More science fiction can help us create a better tomorrow.</title>
    <dc:date>2017-06-20T02:18:12+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2017/06/more_science_fiction_can_help_us_create_a_better_tomorrow.html</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>sf fiction futures prediction literature imagination</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:500821cffef3/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:sf"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:fiction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:futures"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:literature"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:imagination"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.dataschool.io/roc-curves-and-auc-explained/">
    <title>ROC curves and Area Under the Curve explained (video)</title>
    <dc:date>2017-04-24T14:06:49+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.dataschool.io/roc-curves-and-auc-explained/</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>statistics tutorial video prediction</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:9092f704e486/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:tutorial"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:video"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-02/apa-nsm021717.php">
    <title>No spoilers! Most people don't want to know their future | EurekAlert! Science News</title>
    <dc:date>2017-02-23T18:39:17+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-02/apa-nsm021717.php</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>future psychology knowledge prediction understanding</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:0892d0a9b14b/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:future"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:psychology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:knowledge"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:understanding"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2016/11/is-political-science-another-election-casualty/507515/">
    <title>Predictive Models Should Become More Humanistic - The Atlantic</title>
    <dc:date>2016-11-14T18:45:15+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2016/11/is-political-science-another-election-casualty/507515/</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>political-science scientism prediction methodology qualitative humanists</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:04e7667dc5f0/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:political-science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:scientism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:methodology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:qualitative"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:humanists"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/arts/yes-he-thought-trump-would-win-no-he-didnt-use-hard-data.html?smid=tw-nytimes&amp;smtyp=cur&amp;_r=3">
    <title>www.nytimes.com</title>
    <dc:date>2016-11-10T11:56:34+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/arts/yes-he-thought-trump-would-win-no-he-didnt-use-hard-data.html?smid=tw-nytimes&amp;smtyp=cur&amp;_r=3</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>political-science history prediction fundamental</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:6ce98f3e9add/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:political-science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:history"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:fundamental"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/05/the-future-is-almost-now/482718/">
    <title>With Works Like 'Orphan Black,' 'Ex Machina,' and 'The Martian,' Science Fiction Is Becoming Less Fictional - The Atlantic</title>
    <dc:date>2016-05-15T21:41:03+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/05/the-future-is-almost-now/482718/</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>sf fiction television movies prediction near-future</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:8f8b84be77ad/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:sf"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:fiction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:television"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:movies"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:near-future"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://theintercept.com/2016/05/04/beyond-schadenfreude-the-spectacular-pundit-failure-on-trump-is-worth-remembering/">
    <title>Beyond Schadenfreude, the Spectacular Pundit Failure on Trump Is Worth Remembering</title>
    <dc:date>2016-05-09T22:57:13+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://theintercept.com/2016/05/04/beyond-schadenfreude-the-spectacular-pundit-failure-on-trump-is-worth-remembering/</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>media politics campaign 2016 elections prediction</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:2e9cafc10cdd/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:media"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:politics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:campaign"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:2016"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:elections"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://blogs.swarthmore.edu/burke/blog/2016/05/05/on-the-arrival-of-rough-beasts/">
    <title>On the Arrival of Rough Beasts | Easily Distracted</title>
    <dc:date>2016-05-09T22:57:11+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://blogs.swarthmore.edu/burke/blog/2016/05/05/on-the-arrival-of-rough-beasts/</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>two-cultures quantitative creativity qualitative data style politics campaign prediction 2016 pundits</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:851fa9f043d9/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:two-cultures"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:quantitative"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:creativity"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:qualitative"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:data"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:style"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:politics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:campaign"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:2016"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:pundits"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/19/opinion/a-new-dark-age-looms.html?_r=1">
    <title>www.nytimes.com</title>
    <dc:date>2016-05-02T20:43:26+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/19/opinion/a-new-dark-age-looms.html?_r=1</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>global-warming climate-change environment knowledge climate climatology prediction science</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:45e1f6851340/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:global-warming"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:climate-change"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:environment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:knowledge"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:climate"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:climatology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:science"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.thenation.com/article/how-the-democrats-could-be-obliterated-in-the-fall-elections/">
    <title>How Donald Trump Could Beat Hillary Clinton | The Nation</title>
    <dc:date>2016-03-13T21:24:46+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.thenation.com/article/how-the-democrats-could-be-obliterated-in-the-fall-elections/</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["﻿In the general election, he could win by running to her left—and her right."]]></description>
<dc:subject>politics campaign 2016 prediction election trade liberal</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:c3d774b626c7/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:politics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:campaign"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:2016"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:election"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:trade"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:liberal"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/09/opinion/only-trump-can-trump-trump.html?_r=1">
    <title>www.nytimes.com</title>
    <dc:date>2016-03-09T06:31:03+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/09/opinion/only-trump-can-trump-trump.html?_r=1</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Don't know whether this will be prescient or not.]]></description>
<dc:subject>politics american campaign 2016 prediction</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:b0055e73029f/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:politics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:american"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:campaign"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:2016"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/12/predictability_is_going_through_some_unpredictable_changes.html">
    <title>Predictability is going through some unpredictable changes.</title>
    <dc:date>2016-01-06T02:28:06+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/12/predictability_is_going_through_some_unpredictable_changes.html</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>prediction science methods data-mining theory explanation understanding philosophy big-data</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:e576537ee6a0/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:methods"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:data-mining"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:theory"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:explanation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:understanding"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:philosophy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:big-data"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://ahr.oxfordjournals.org/content/117/5.toc">
    <title>ahr.oxfordjournals.org</title>
    <dc:date>2014-11-19T23:38:07+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://ahr.oxfordjournals.org/content/117/5.toc</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[AHR Form: histories of the future 1. David C. Engerman. Introduction: Histories of the Future and the Futures of History 2. Jenny Andersson. The Great Future Debate and the Struggle for the World 3. Matthew Connelly, Matt Fay, Giulia Ferrini, Micki Kaufman, Will Leonard, Harrison Monsky, Ryan Musto, Taunton Paine, Nicholas Standish, and Lydia Walker. “General, I Have Fought Just as Many Nuclear Wars as You Have”: . Forecasts, Future Scenarios, and the Politics of Armageddon 4. Manu Goswami. Imaginary Futures and Colonial Internationalisms]]></description>
<dc:subject>history historiography future prediction futurism</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:16953fdea564/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:history"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:historiography"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:future"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:futurism"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/on-it/whats-the-next-big-tech-trend-this-federal-agency-thinks-it-can-predict-the-answer/2014/09/20/48b0e1e2-3dd8-11e4-b03f-de718edeb92f_story.html">
    <title>What’s the next big tech trend? This federal agency thinks it can predict the answer - The Washington Post</title>
    <dc:date>2014-09-26T03:12:23+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/on-it/whats-the-next-big-tech-trend-this-federal-agency-thinks-it-can-predict-the-answer/2014/09/20/48b0e1e2-3dd8-11e4-b03f-de718edeb92f_story.html</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>science innovation tracking prediction</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:85e76567e49f/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:innovation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:tracking"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://bigthink.com/amped/struggling-to-stay-relevant-incorporate-these-cultural-marketing-concepts">
    <title>Struggling to Stay Relevant? Incorporate these Four Cultural Marketing Concepts | Amped | Big Think</title>
    <dc:date>2013-10-01T19:22:04+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://bigthink.com/amped/struggling-to-stay-relevant-incorporate-these-cultural-marketing-concepts</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>marketing public-relations online social-media trends fashion prediction</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:eb2e647263ce/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:marketing"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:public-relations"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:online"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:social-media"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:trends"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:fashion"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://cliodynamics.info">
    <title>Cliodynamics</title>
    <dc:date>2013-09-06T21:41:13+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://cliodynamics.info</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Empires rise and fall, populations and economies boom and bust, world religions spread or wither... What are the mechanisms underlying such dynamical processes in history? Are there 'laws of history'? We do not lack hypotheses to investigate - to take just one instance, more than two hundred explanations have been proposed for why the Roman Empire fell. But we still don't know which of these hypotheses are plausible, and which should be rejected. More importantly, there is no consensus on what general mechanisms explain the collapse of historical empires. What is needed is a systematic application of the scientific method to history: verbal theories should be translated into mathematical models, precise predictions derived, and then rigorously tested on empirical material. In short, history needs to become an analytical, predictive science"]]></description>
<dc:subject>science history scientism prediction</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:34f7bd6d2214/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:history"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:scientism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2013/01/your-elusive-future-self.html?ref=hp">
    <title>Your Elusive Future Self - ScienceNOW</title>
    <dc:date>2013-01-06T01:15:03+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2013/01/your-elusive-future-self.html?ref=hp</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>self time change future psychology prediction habit</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:d67a40d27ae3/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:self"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:time"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:change"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:future"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:psychology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:habit"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-intelligence-council-global-trends">
    <title>National Intelligence Council - Global Trends</title>
    <dc:date>2013-01-06T01:14:58+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.dni.gov/index.php/about/organization/national-intelligence-council-global-trends</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["The National Intelligence Council's (NIC) Global Trends Report engages expertise from outside government on factors of such as globalization, demography and the environment, producing a forward-looking document to aid policymakers in their long term planning on key issues of worldwide importance. Since the first report was released in 1997, the audience for each Global Trends report has expanded, generating more interest and reaching a broader audience that the one that preceded it. A new Global Trends report is published every four years following the U.S. presidential election."]]></description>
<dc:subject>futures prediction government intelligence america empire</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:3ffc8a4fd8a7/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:futures"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:government"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:intelligence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:america"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:empire"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175633/tomgram%3A_engelhardt%2C_apocalypse_when/">
    <title>Tomgram: Engelhardt, Apocalypse When? | TomDispatch</title>
    <dc:date>2013-01-06T01:14:56+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175633/tomgram%3A_engelhardt%2C_apocalypse_when/</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Ever since, every few years the National Intelligence Council (NIC), the IC’s “center for long-term strategic analysis,” has been intent on producing a document it calls serially Global Trends [fill in the future year].  The latest edition, out just in time for Barack Obama’s second term, is Global Trends 2030.  Here’s one utterly predictable thing about it: it’s bigger and more elaborate than Global Trends 2025.  "]]></description>
<dc:subject>futures prediction government intelligence america empire</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:be542be66fa1/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:futures"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:government"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:intelligence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:america"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:empire"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.wfs.org/blogs/michael-lee/shock-testing-black-swan-theory">
    <title>Shock-testing the Black Swan Theory | World Future Society</title>
    <dc:date>2012-12-11T20:40:55+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.wfs.org/blogs/michael-lee/shock-testing-black-swan-theory</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>black-swan statistics history chance contingency prediction futures scientism</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:575f63a7c5a4/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:black-swan"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:history"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:chance"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:contingency"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:futures"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:scientism"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2012/07/26/greenland-melt-was-predicted-in-advance-by-paper-awaiting-publication/">
    <title>Greenland Melt Was Predicted In Advance By Paper Awaiting Publication - Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal - AGU Blogosphere</title>
    <dc:date>2012-07-27T02:42:13+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2012/07/26/greenland-melt-was-predicted-in-advance-by-paper-awaiting-publication/</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>climate-change climate meteorology arctic ice science prediction</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:1c0e1f3ff632/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:climate-change"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:climate"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:meteorology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:arctic"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:ice"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.iza.org/en/webcontent/publications/papers/viewAbstract?dp_id=6557">
    <title>Why do people pay for useless advice? Implications of gambler's and hot-hand fallacies in false-expert settingsIZA - Institute for the Study of Labor</title>
    <dc:date>2012-06-23T19:56:04+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.iza.org/en/webcontent/publications/papers/viewAbstract?dp_id=6557</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["We investigated experimentally whether people can be induced to believe in a non-existent expert, and subsequently pay for what can only be described as transparently useless advice about future chance events. Consistent with the theoretical predictions made by Rabin (2002) and Rabin and Vayanos (2010), we show empirically that the answer is yes and that the size of the error made systematically by people is large. "]]></description>
<dc:subject>economics research statistics probability expertise reasoning chance bias prediction cognition</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:7a2187bad1d7/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:research"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:probability"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:expertise"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:reasoning"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:chance"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:bias"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:cognition"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2012/05/hot-hands-and-guranteed-winners.html">
    <title>Roger Pielke Jr.'s Blog: Hot Hands and Guranteed Winners</title>
    <dc:date>2012-06-23T19:54:08+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2012/05/hot-hands-and-guranteed-winners.html</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>statistics probability expertise reasoning chance prediction bias cognition</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:37de1b4f07cb/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:probability"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:expertise"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:reasoning"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:chance"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:bias"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:cognition"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.openthefuture.com/2012/01/the_future_isnt_what_it_used_t.html">
    <title>Open the Future: The Future Isn't What It Used to Be</title>
    <dc:date>2012-02-19T06:35:49+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.openthefuture.com/2012/01/the_future_isnt_what_it_used_t.html</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["And on and on. If futurists have become almost too good at technological foresight, we remain woefully primitive in our abilities to examine and forecast changes to cultural, political, and social dynamics.

Why is this? There isn't a single cause. "]]></description>
<dc:subject>futurism futures prediction technology social change</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:3e00a51b56da/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:futurism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:futures"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:technology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:social"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:change"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.cs.unm.edu/~aaron/blog/archives/2011/09/what_is_the_pro.htm">
    <title>Structure Strangeness: What is the probability of a 9/11-size terrorist attack?</title>
    <dc:date>2011-09-13T21:18:19+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.cs.unm.edu/~aaron/blog/archives/2011/09/what_is_the_pro.htm</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Sunday is the 10-year anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. As a commemoration of the day, I'm going to investigate answers to a very simple question: what is the probability of a 9/11-size or larger terrorist attack?
]]></description>
<dc:subject>terrorism probability complexity prediction model social</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:8a5ba96694f0/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:terrorism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:probability"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:complexity"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:model"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:social"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/the_future_issue">
    <title>The Future Issue - An FP Special Report | Foreign Policy</title>
    <dc:date>2011-08-31T23:30:45+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.foreignpolicy.com/the_future_issue</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>future futures futurism prediction world international economics military foreign-policy</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:13d8c6d19671/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:future"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:futures"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:futurism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:world"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:international"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:military"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:foreign-policy"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/07/28/minority-rules-why-10-percent-is-all-you-need">
    <title>Freakonomics » Minority Rules: Why 10 Percent is All You Need</title>
    <dc:date>2011-07-30T22:22:22+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/07/28/minority-rules-why-10-percent-is-all-you-need</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>social-networks trends prediction opinion network-analysis simulation complexity</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:0aa67692defc/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:social-networks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:trends"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:opinion"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:network-analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:simulation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:complexity"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2011/07/beyond-prediction.html">
    <title>Beyond Prediction - Charlie's Diary</title>
    <dc:date>2011-07-28T19:21:52+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2011/07/beyond-prediction.html</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["In other words I have a new ambition for my own SF: not as prediction, and not cautionary, either--but aspirational.

The fact is that if I've learned one thing in two years of studying how we think about the future, it's that the one thing that's sorely lacking in the public imagination is positive ideas about where we should be going. We seem to do everything about our future except try to design it. It's a funny thing: nobody ever questions your credentials if you predict doom and destruction. But provide a rosy picture of the future, and people demand that you justify yourself. Increasingly, though, I believe that while warning people of dire possibilities is responsible, providing them with something to aspire to is even more important. The foresight programme has given me a lot of tools to do that in a justifiable way, so I might as well use them."
]]></description>
<dc:subject>foresight futurism futures aspiration sf literature writing prediction near-far</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:47811bd97e1f/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:foresight"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:futurism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:futures"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:aspiration"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:sf"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:literature"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:writing"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:near-far"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/11/dan-gardner-and-philip-tetlock/overcoming-our-aversion-to-acknowledging-our-ignorance">
    <title>Overcoming Our Aversion to Acknowledging Our Ignorance | | Cato Unbound</title>
    <dc:date>2011-07-18T13:10:19+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.cato-unbound.org/2011/07/11/dan-gardner-and-philip-tetlock/overcoming-our-aversion-to-acknowledging-our-ignorance</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[by Dan Gardner and Philip Tetlock
]]></description>
<dc:subject>expertise prediction accuracy future</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:87b1718b0f53/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:expertise"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:accuracy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:future"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/winter-storm">
    <title>USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project » ARkStorm: West Coast Storm Scenario</title>
    <dc:date>2011-06-11T21:18:42+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/winter-storm</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>risk prediction weather meteorology science state(California)</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:b1d6b70fcaf5/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:risk"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:weather"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:meteorology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:state(California)"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.economicpredictions.org/">
    <title>Who's Who of Wall Street - Economic Predictions from Top Wall Street Economists - Top Wall Street Investors - Wall Street Opinion Leaders - Top Wall Street Executives - Top Wall Street Journalists</title>
    <dc:date>2011-05-14T02:12:32+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.economicpredictions.org/</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>economics crisis research prediction recession</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:d262ced7d392/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:crisis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:research"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:recession"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.openthefuture.com/2011/04/listening_to_foresight.html">
    <title>Open the Future: Listening to Foresight</title>
    <dc:date>2011-04-29T09:59:20+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.openthefuture.com/2011/04/listening_to_foresight.html</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>prediction forecasts future futurism</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:f7b4203c63b1/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:forecasts"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:future"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:futurism"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=duncan-watts-book">
    <title>The Anti-Predictor: A Chat with Mathematical Sociologist Duncan Watts: Scientific American</title>
    <dc:date>2011-04-24T22:25:38+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=duncan-watts-book</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Though Lazarsfeld was writing 60 years ago, 20/20 hindsight is still very much with us. Contemporary psychologists call this tendency to view the past as more predictable than it actually was "the hindsight bias." Watts, a Yahoo! Labs scientist best known for his research on social networks and his earlier book,  Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age (W. W. Norton, 2003), argues that this tendency is a greatly underappreciated problem, one that not only causes us to make up just-so stories to explain any conceivable outcome—but to delude ourselves that we can predict the future by learning from the past."
]]></description>
<dc:subject>interview sociology internet yahoo book prediction randomness</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:4ac447a820a5/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:interview"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:sociology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:internet"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:yahoo"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:book"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:randomness"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.voidspace.org.uk/cyberpunk/gibson_rocketradio.shtml">
    <title>Rocket Radio - an Article by William Gibson</title>
    <dc:date>2011-04-01T16:30:51+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.voidspace.org.uk/cyberpunk/gibson_rocketradio.shtml</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["ONCE PERFECTED, communication technologies rarely die out entirely
]]></description>
<dc:subject>technology technology-adoption user street adaptation anarchy future prediction</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:eb3a25dadb40/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:technology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:technology-adoption"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:user"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:street"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:adaptation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:anarchy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:future"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robust_regression">
    <title>Robust regression - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</title>
    <dc:date>2011-02-11T21:48:52+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robust_regression</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>statistics quantitative measurement research methods probability robust linear-regression prediction error</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:29f6df462864/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:quantitative"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:measurement"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:research"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:methods"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:probability"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:robust"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:linear-regression"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:error"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robust_statistics">
    <title>Robust statistics - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</title>
    <dc:date>2011-02-11T21:48:40+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robust_statistics</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>statistics quantitative measurement research methods probability robust linear-regression prediction error</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:d8b0eaa4c0ef/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:quantitative"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:measurement"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:research"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:methods"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:probability"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:robust"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:linear-regression"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:error"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.thetelegraph.com/news/meteorologists-50131-predictions-accuracy.html">
    <title>Meteorologists review accuracy of predictions | meteorologists, predictions, accuracy - Forecast aftermath - The Telegraph</title>
    <dc:date>2011-02-05T20:34:45+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.thetelegraph.com/news/meteorologists-50131-predictions-accuracy.html</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Predicted to be a storm of historic proportions, Tuesday’s snow and ice storm fell short of expectations, and meteorologists couldn’t be happier."
]]></description>
<dc:subject>meteorology prediction weather science success failure accuracy</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:1e5c99f4fc31/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:meteorology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:weather"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:success"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:failure"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:accuracy"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.cbc.ca/spark/2011/01/full-interview-eric-rabkin-on-sci-fi-predictions">
    <title>Full Interview: Eric Rabkin on Sci-Fi Predictions | Spark | CBC Radio</title>
    <dc:date>2011-01-15T20:21:09+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.cbc.ca/spark/2011/01/full-interview-eric-rabkin-on-sci-fi-predictions</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>interview sf prediction literature</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:63e187203670/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:interview"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:sf"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:literature"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://thevirtuosi.blogspot.com/2011/01/darts.html?utm_source=feedburner">
    <title>The Virtuosi: Darts</title>
    <dc:date>2011-01-14T20:30:31+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://thevirtuosi.blogspot.com/2011/01/darts.html?utm_source=feedburner</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Modeling where to aim in darts to maximize your score.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>physics games prediction</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:18b3c12b4090/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:physics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:games"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://michaelnielsen.org/blog/what-should-a-reasonable-person-believe-about-the-singularity/?utm_source=feedburner">
    <title>What should a reasonable person believe about the Singularity? | Michael Nielsen</title>
    <dc:date>2011-01-14T20:29:51+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://michaelnielsen.org/blog/what-should-a-reasonable-person-believe-about-the-singularity/?utm_source=feedburner</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>singularity technology future prediction probability reason</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:1366ed239b36/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:singularity"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:technology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:future"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:probability"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:reason"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/12/let-gambling-save-science.html">
    <title>Overcoming Bias : Gambling Save Science?</title>
    <dc:date>2010-12-14T01:26:56+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/12/let-gambling-save-science.html</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Academics are trustees of one of our greatest resources – the accumulated abstract knowledge of our ancestors. Academics appear to spend most of their time trying to add to that knowledge, and such effort is mostly empirical – seeking new interesting data. Alas, for the purpose of intellectual progress, most of that effort is wasted. And one of the main wastes is academics being too gullible about their and allies’ findings, and too skeptical about rivals’ findings.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>academia academic bias confirmation-bias gullibility skepticism prediction markets</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:11194d47976d/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:academia"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:academic"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:bias"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:confirmation-bias"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:gullibility"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:skepticism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:markets"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11/101101171236.htm?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed:+sciencedaily+(ScienceDaily:+Latest+Science+News)">
    <title>After good or bad events, people forget how they thought they'd feel</title>
    <dc:date>2010-11-05T20:33:04+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11/101101171236.htm?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed:+sciencedaily+(ScienceDaily:+Latest+Science+News)</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[People aren't very accurate at predicting how good or bad they'll feel after an event -- such as watching their team lose the big game or getting a flat-screen TV. But afterwards, they "misremember" what they predicted, revising their prognostications after the fact to match how they actually feel, according to new research.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>psychology self-analysis self-knowledge future prediction forgetting memory</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:112b552fcbd1/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:psychology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:self-analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:self-knowledge"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:future"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:forgetting"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:memory"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2010/10/fallible-preferences-universities.html">
    <title>Stumbling and Mumbling: Fallible preferences &amp; universities</title>
    <dc:date>2010-10-24T20:11:04+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2010/10/fallible-preferences-universities.html</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[20-year-olds cannot predict the specific skills they’ll need in the labour market in 10-20 years time. This is not just because they don‘t know what jobs they‘ll have then, but because they don‘t know how occupations will change. For this reason, there’s a huge danger that purely vocational skills will quickly date. Instead, the key is to teach them more general skills: how to interpret evidence; how to write, and so on. One good way to do this is to give them a rigorous education in anything; how else do you explain the economic success of Oxford classics graduates?
]]></description>
<dc:subject>education purpose business utility career prediction preference university</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:fdcd08a806da/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:education"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:purpose"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:business"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:utility"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:career"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:preference"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:university"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://rafaelpopper.wordpress.com/">
    <title>Popper's Foresight &amp; Horizon Scanning Blog</title>
    <dc:date>2010-07-14T02:58:01+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://rafaelpopper.wordpress.com/</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Rafael Popper (1976- ) has more than 10 years experience as a foresight researcher  and practitioner. Since 2002 he is based at PREST Manchester Institute of Innovation Research of the University of Manchester (one of the world’s leading foresight think tanks)
]]></description>
<dc:subject>weblog-individual futurists future prediction weak-signals horizon-scanning foresight</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:39ba025b0722/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:weblog-individual"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:futurists"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:future"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:weak-signals"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:horizon-scanning"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:foresight"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://climateprogress.org/2009/06/15/us-global-change-research-program-noaa-global-climate-change-impacts-in-united-states">
    <title>Our hellish future: Definitive NOAA-led report on U.S. climate impacts warns of scorching 9 to 11°F warming over most of inland U.S. by 2090 with Kansas above 90°F some 120 days a year — and that isn’t the worst case, it’s business as usual! « Cl</title>
    <dc:date>2010-01-12T05:18:23+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://climateprogress.org/2009/06/15/us-global-change-research-program-noaa-global-climate-change-impacts-in-united-states</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>climate weather meteorology american prediction future environment global-warming</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:d8770b46a204/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:climate"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:weather"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:meteorology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:american"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:future"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:environment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:global-warming"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.future2.org/">
    <title>Future2</title>
    <dc:date>2010-01-11T03:18:10+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.future2.org/</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[The field of futures and forecasting is undergoing a revolution. Since the field was founded in the 1950s, the problems futurists must make sense of have become much more complex. The tools we can use-- and could develop-- to follow trends and forecast possible futures have become more sophisticated. The audiences we try to reach have expanded. The media we use to communicate have changed. And our knowledge of how people and groups actually think about and respond to the future has evolved greatly. The purpose of this blog is to make sense of how the field is responding to these changes, and try see where the field is going-- in effect, to forecast the future of futures
]]></description>
<dc:subject>weblog-individual futurism prediction</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:6878d3aabf88/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:weblog-individual"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:futurism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://theuncertainfuture.com/">
    <title>The Uncertain Future</title>
    <dc:date>2009-12-06T23:39:01+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://theuncertainfuture.com/</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[In the Uncertain Future, we let you input the full range of your uncertainties — and we show you the distribution over futures that your current, uncertain beliefs imply. We help you create your own picture of the uncertain future.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>future futurism prediction artificial-intelligence singularity</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:2e6e1bfafeb0/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:future"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:futurism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:artificial-intelligence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:singularity"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.openleft.com/diary/15293/the-financial-crisis-those-who-saw-it-comingand-why">
    <title>Open Left:: The Crash: Who Saw It Coming--And Why</title>
    <dc:date>2009-10-05T14:12:20+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.openleft.com/diary/15293/the-financial-crisis-those-who-saw-it-comingand-why</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Dutch economist Dirk Bezemer, writing in the Financial Times on September 7, "Why some economists could see the crisis coming".  What's more, he has a much more detailed explanation in a 51-page paper, "'No One Saw This Coming': Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models" (pdf).  Long story short, Bezemer set out to find those who had been right in predicting the financial meltdown, not just randomly, but because of a well-reasoned argument.  He found eight examples-including Baker-and analyzed what they had in common.  He discovered that they all relied on accounting models that looked at the economy in terms of stocks and flows, in sharp contrast to the standard macro-economic models that actually have no way of predicting a financial crisis, since their programming does not allow for the possibility.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>economics prediction recession macroeconomic methods modeling retrospective</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:c53190d486e0/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:recession"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:macroeconomic"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:methods"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:modeling"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:retrospective"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://chaospet.com/2009/09/24/143-zombie-karl-popper/">
    <title>chaospet » Archive » #143 Zombie Karl Popper</title>
    <dc:date>2009-09-27T17:20:41+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://chaospet.com/2009/09/24/143-zombie-karl-popper/</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Comic about the efficient market hypothesis and its defenders, especially John Cochrane who said that EMH predicts that no one can predict anything so it must be true.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>humor economics science philosophy efficient-markets-hypothesis falsifiable evidence comic prediction geeky</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:93d9d98442df/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:humor"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:philosophy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:efficient-markets-hypothesis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:falsifiable"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:evidence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:comic"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:geeky"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/jamais-cascio/open-future/futures-thinking-basics">
    <title>Futures Thinking: The Basics | Open The Future | Fast Company</title>
    <dc:date>2009-09-20T19:00:06+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/jamais-cascio/open-future/futures-thinking-basics</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>future futurism tools planning prediction forecasting</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:b51d04646d37/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:future"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:futurism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:tools"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:planning"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:forecasting"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2009/09/economists-stories-mechanisms.html">
    <title>Stumbling and Mumbling: Economists, stories &amp; mechanisms</title>
    <dc:date>2009-09-06T12:36:50+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2009/09/economists-stories-mechanisms.html</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[First, I fear Anthony has too much confidence in economists’ ability to build useful scenarios. The problem is that extreme events are often not captured by scenarios. For example, back in 2007 loads of economists had a disaster scenario. But these revolved around an unwinding of consumer debt, or a meltdown of hedge funds, or a dollar collapse triggered by global imbalances. Very few indeed had a remotely accurate credit crunch scenario.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>economics prediction finance rationality sociology decision-making scenario-planning story-telling wages minimum-wage</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:d2e2052ac190/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:finance"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:rationality"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:sociology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:decision-making"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:scenario-planning"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:story-telling"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:wages"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:minimum-wage"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7260/full/nature08227.html#a1">
    <title>Access : Early-warning signals for critical transitions : Nature</title>
    <dc:date>2009-09-06T12:31:30+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7260/full/nature08227.html#a1</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, work in different scientific fields is now suggesting the existence of generic early-warning signals that may indicate for a wide class of systems if a critical threshold is approaching.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>complexity science dynamics systems prediction early-warning change</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:6e94deeaf160/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:complexity"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:dynamics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:systems"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:early-warning"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:change"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://andymckenzie.blogspot.com/2009/07/building-relationship-with-your-future.html">
    <title>Andy McKenzie: The Blog: Building a Relationship With Your Future Selves</title>
    <dc:date>2009-07-05T13:49:46+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://andymckenzie.blogspot.com/2009/07/building-relationship-with-your-future.html</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[People in their 20s wished they had saved for travel, people in their 30s wished they had saved for a house, and people in their 40s wished they had saved for retirement. His implicit suggestion is that younger people should use this data and get "ahead" of the curve by aligning their current savings patterns with what they probably will want to have done in 20 years.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>philosophy future self prediction rationality</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:22785b16fdb3/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:philosophy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:future"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:self"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:rationality"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.intel.com/technology/itj/2007/v11i2/4-forecasting/1-abstract.htm">
    <title>Using Forecasting Markets to Manage Demand Risk</title>
    <dc:date>2009-07-03T12:16:19+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.intel.com/technology/itj/2007/v11i2/4-forecasting/1-abstract.htm</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[A research effort launched in 2005 sought to introduce new methodologies that might help crack the bias in demand signals. We worked with our academic partners to develop a new application, a form of prediction market, integrated with Intel's regular short-term forecasting processes. The process enables product and market experts to dynamically negotiate product forecasts in an environment offering anonymity and performance-based incentives.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>prediction markets case-study</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:5538b8c229a3/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:markets"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:case-study"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://orgtheory.wordpress.com/2009/06/25/iran-and-unpredictable-events">
    <title>iran and unpredictable events « orgtheory.net</title>
    <dc:date>2009-06-30T06:46:51+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://orgtheory.wordpress.com/2009/06/25/iran-and-unpredictable-events</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[quick taxonomy of unpredictability: information, computational, endogenous, chaotic, under-determined
]]></description>
<dc:subject>prediction future</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:736f5eea22b7/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:future"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.pmcluster.com/">
    <title>Prediction Markets Cluster</title>
    <dc:date>2009-06-04T12:30:12+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.pmcluster.com/</link>
    <dc:creator>tsuomela</dc:creator><dc:subject>prediction markets</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/b:34541d413ed1/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:tsuomela/t:markets"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
</rdf:RDF>