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Lehrer: Do these different styles correlate with levels of accuracy?

Tetlock: In assessing accuracy, it is crucial to make the “law of large numbers” work for you. Any fool can be lucky a few times. The key is consistency. So, in the first round of our studies, we assessed the accuracy of almost 30,000 predictions from almost 300 experts. We tested a lot of different hypotheses about the correlates of consistency and accuracy. Is ideology the key factor? Having a PhD? Having past access to classified information? And a lot of hypotheses bit the dust. The most consistent predictor of consistently more accurate forecasts was “style of reasoning”: experts with the more eclectic, self-critical, and modest cognitive styles tended to outperform the big-idea people (foxes tended to outperform hedgehogs).]]> politics journalism statistics generalists https://pinboard.in/u:rbhlms/b:1458de238d8a/ 2011-07-27T14:46:53+00:00 http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/26/the-cult-that-is-destroying-america/ rbhlmspolitics journalism economics centrism debt-ceiling https://pinboard.in/u:rbhlms/b:38806e99504c/ 2011-05-24T19:17:50+00:00 http://beta.boston.com/2011/05/19/boston-globe-storefront-webpage/ rbhlmshistory journalism news newspaper twitter media https://pinboard.in/u:rbhlms/b:41a08c74d151/ 2010-09-17T20:15:43+00:00 http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/09/17/teaching-journalists-to-read/ rbhlmsjournalism media-criticism https://pinboard.in/u:rbhlms/b:c45ead97675b/ 2010-06-27T19:53:38+00:00 http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2010/06/27/goldberg/index.html rbhlms journalism brutal-evisceration https://pinboard.in/u:rbhlms/b:f6d60c76a3a7/ 2010-03-02T21:55:10+00:00 http://castingwords.com/ rbhlmstranscription tools mechanical-turk journalism https://pinboard.in/u:rbhlms/b:946a1edb7832/ 2010-03-02T21:51:25+00:00 http://waxy.org/2008/09/audio_transcription_with_mechanical_turk/ rbhlmstranscription mechanical-turk tools journalism https://pinboard.in/u:rbhlms/b:5a42639050bd/ 2010-02-15T18:03:08+00:00 http://lhote.blogspot.com/2010/02/mole-people.html rbhlmsunderground manhattan subterranean literature journalism https://pinboard.in/u:rbhlms/b:3b51813283e0/ 2009-06-26T16:26:13+00:00 http://correspondents.theatlantic.com/christina_davidson/2009/06/_the_flopeye_cafe_in.html rbhlms recession journalism south-carolina https://pinboard.in/u:rbhlms/b:3eeb44a66fc8/ 2009-06-15T22:20:31+00:00 http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/06/irans_disputed_election.html rbhlmsiran photography journalism democracy election https://pinboard.in/u:rbhlms/b:f9f9c0c628e9/ 2009-03-23T14:04:59+00:00 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/20/AR2009032002660.html?hpid%3Dopinionsbox1&sub=AR rbhlmsglobal-warming science journalism george-will https://pinboard.in/u:rbhlms/b:e5c1fe797ca3/ 2009-02-19T21:48:44+00:00 http://overlawyered.com/2009/02/new-york-times-on-cpsia-needless-fears-that-the-law-could-injure-smaller-enterprises/ rbhlmsjournalism media cpsia toys https://pinboard.in/u:rbhlms/b:c079f1b5c572/ 2009-02-17T21:03:29+00:00 http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2009/02/14/brooks/index.html rbhlmspolitics obama journalism ethics media david-brooks beltway-insiders https://pinboard.in/u:rbhlms/b:36d8ebaeed89/ 2008-12-05T20:32:14+00:00 http://www.circleofblue.org/ rbhlmswater sustainability journalism bracket https://pinboard.in/u:rbhlms/b:c89debd2813f/ 2008-09-15T23:03:48+00:00 http://www.kenyonreview.org/issues/spring08/doyle.php rbhlmswriting journalism to-blog https://pinboard.in/u:rbhlms/b:4c8fcf5783f3/ 2008-09-03T14:14:00+00:00 http://jeffreygoldberg.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/dexter_filkins.php rbhlmsiraq to-blog foreign-policy journalism https://pinboard.in/u:rbhlms/b:b2e749241a3f/ 2008-04-29T04:17:44+00:00 http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/27/opinion/27edwards.html?_r=1&oref=slogin rbhlmspolitics journalism exactly-right https://pinboard.in/u:rbhlms/b:915cabc2036c/