Pinboard (jerryking)
https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/public/
recent bookmarks from jerrykingHow to read fiction to build a startup2024-03-21T15:31:30+00:00
https://techcrunch.com/2019/02/16/the-best-fiction-for-building-a-startup/
jerryking Ideating++
++For Answers To Life’s Biggest Questions, Inquire Within++
++Read To Think Differently++
]]>authors books fiction howto Neal_Stephenson Paul_Graham reading start_ups writers Charlie_Munger Kai-Fu_Lee Richard_Feynman think_differently Virginia_Heffernan William_Gibsonhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:9d49f4ab5f58/How to Check in on Your Emotional Well-Being - The New York Times2024-03-06T15:01:05+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/28/well/mind/mental-health-wellbeing-check-in.html?searchResultPosition=1
jerryking>mental health<<, or search for a local therapist or psychiatrist on the Psychology Today and American Psychiatric Association websites.
]]>dashboards emotional howto indicators mental_health mood relationships self-guided self-talk well-beinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:f6e961f24281/High Blood Pressure: How To Recognize It and Lower Your Level2024-03-04T13:22:29+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/29/well/live/high-blood-pressure-lower.html
jerryking>hypertension<<-- “is a smoldering public health crisis..........High blood pressure can raise the risk of heart attack, stroke, pregnancy complications and other health problems, but the symptoms are “often silent,”........Here’s what to know about the issue, and how to get your blood pressure under control..
++What is blood pressure? And what’s a normal level?++
Blood pressure is the force that blood exerts against artery walls in the heart.....You’ll always hear your blood pressure given as two numbers: The top number, known as systolic pressure, measures that force when the heart contracts. The bottom number, known as diastolic pressure, gauges the force when the heart muscle relaxes. It’s measured in units known as millimeters of mercury, or mm Hg............The American Heart Association and the American College of Cardiology define **normal blood pressure** as below 120/80 mm Hg.The C.D.C. defines **high blood pressure** as 130/80 mm Hg or higher.
Very high blood pressure can cause symptoms including severe headaches, chest pain and dizziness. For many people, however, blood pressure increases too gradually for them to notice these issues,
++Why is high blood pressure harmful?++
High blood pressure forces the heart to work harder to pump blood. Over time, the overwhelmed heart can slowly start to falter and struggle to pump blood out to the rest of the body, a condition called heart failure.
The force and friction of high blood pressure can also injure the delicate lining of the arteries, Dr. Liu said. Tears in the artery wall allow LDL cholesterol — also known as the “bad” cholesterol — to latch on and form clumps, or plaques, in these gaps. This can block blood flow and, in some patients, cause a heart attack.
Blockages in arteries that carry blood to the brain can lead to a stroke. Long-term damage to blood vessels in the brain can also lead to a condition called vascular dementia, Dr. Liu said.
**What leads to high blood pressure?**
All arteries stiffen over time, leading blood pressure to climb steadily as people age. By age 75, an estimated 80 percent of men and 86 percent of women in the United States have high blood pressure.
Multiple risk factors have been linked to high blood pressure, including smoking, heavy drinking, obesity and chronic stress. A lack of exercise and diets high in sodium and processed foods have also been associated with an increased risk of hypertension.
**How can you reduce your blood pressure?**
For some people, lifestyle changes can be as powerful as medication, said Dr. Martha Gulati, the director of preventive cardiology at the Smidt Heart Institute at Cedars-Sinai in Los Angeles. She recommends at least 30 minutes of moderate exercise a day and sleeping seven to nine hours a night, both of which are associated with lower blood pressure. Maintaining or achieving a healthy body weight can also reduce blood pressure, Dr. Gulati said.
Avoiding products that contain nicotine is important. Using nicotine drives up blood pressure, narrows blood vessels and may contribute to the hardening of arteries, according to the American Heart Association.
Some research suggests that following a low-sodium diet could reduce blood pressure by two to eight mm Hg for some patients, and that adopting the DASH diet — which emphasizes fruits, vegetables and low-fat dairy products — could reduce blood pressure by eight to 14 points. Abstaining from alcohol or limiting consumption to no more than one glass per day for women and two glasses for men could reduce blood pressure by two to four points.
People who can’t lower their blood pressure to normal levels through lifestyle changes will need medication, Dr. Gulati said. Water pills, or diuretics, help remove sodium and water from the body, bringing down blood pressure. Angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs) both relax blood vessels, though they work in different ways. Calcium channel blockers help relax the muscle cells of blood vessels, and some slow your heart rate. People who can’t lower their blood pressure with these drugs may need additional medications. Doctors take a patient’s age, health and risk factors into consideration before deciding what medication to prescribe.
........“Blood pressure is the most modifiable risk factor for >>heart disease<< and stroke,” Dr. Gulati said. “With lifestyle changes and medications, our patients can take control of it — and their heart health.”]]>blood_pressure howto mens'_health aging heart_disease hypertension public_health risk_factorshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:90870a9c2f3e/How to Generate Good Ideas2024-02-26T17:12:00+00:00
https://www.nightviewcapital.com/articlescommentary/how-to-generate-good-ideas
jerrykingCharlie_Munger creativity cross-disciplinary daydreaming domain_expertise Dunning-Kruger_Effect fresh_ideas howto ideas idea_generation Jeff_Bezos outdoors wandering Johan_Gutenberghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:5057bd56681d/How to Monetize Your Knowledge - Small Business Trends2023-12-10T06:46:05+00:00
https://smallbiztrends.com/2013/10/monetize-your-knowledge-expertise.html
jerrykinghowto know-how knowledge monetization branching_out domain_expertisehttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:0fa38b0f783d/How to Avoid Being Boring at 60 - WSJ2023-11-25T13:23:39+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/how-to-avoid-being-boring-at-60-1e9d087a?mod=hp_listc_pos1
jerrykingaging howto unstuckhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:31d5b2fa4d6d/How to Speak in Public - The New York Times2023-09-28T10:03:58+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/article/how-to-speak-in-public.html
jerrykinghowto presentations public_speaking speecheshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:b5bdaaed7990/How to battle superbugs with viruses that “eat” them2023-09-26T19:39:02+00:00
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/05/03/how-to-battle-superbugs-with-viruses-that-eat-them
jerrykingantibiotics bacteria howto viruses antimicrobial_resistancehttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:df7331b72ee5/Aging and Sleep: How to Combat Sleeping Problems That Hit in Middle Age2023-09-26T17:05:11+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/health/wellness/sleep-problems-middle-age-94d0ef61?mod=WTRN_pos1&cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_169&cx_artPos=0
jerrykingaging howto insomnia midlife sleep sleeplessnesshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:34246a48ee28/How to Practice Positive Self Talk with Laura Camacho2023-07-17T19:41:51+00:00
https://jennymelrose.com/how-to-practice-positive-self-talk/
jerrykingCommunicating_&_Connecting howto psychology self-talk positive_thinkinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:1035f148f5e3/How to Pack Better - The New York Times2023-07-09T09:46:46+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/21/smarter-living/wirecutter/how-to-pack-better.html
jerrykinghowto packing tips travelhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:984031862e82/How to Make a Healthy Breakfast2023-06-29T01:05:14+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/23/well/eat/healthy-breakfast.html
jerrykingbreakfasts healthy_lifestyles howtohttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:bf3360d8d270/How Major League Baseball Is Using Its Rules Changes to Win New Fans - WSJ2023-06-25T21:12:00+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/major-league-baseball-marketing-strategy-83cfb2e4?mod=hp_jr_pos1
jerrykingbaseball comebacks fan_engagement howto MLB rule-changinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:9f3b01e7f937/How to Build a Baseline Model | Towards Data Science2023-06-16T20:36:41+00:00
https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-build-a-baseline-model-be6ce42389fc
jerrykingbaselines howtohttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:5fb5470e4bed/Welcome to the 21st Century: How To Plan For The Post-Covid Future2023-06-13T04:20:13+00:00
https://www.oreilly.com/tim/21stcentury/
jerryking21st._century howto post-coronavirus_era scenario_planning start_ups Tim_O'Reillyhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:2c8959fa3f1d/How To Create a Baseline (Trend Line) for an Indicator - Clear Impact2023-06-12T21:12:24+00:00
https://clearimpact.com/results-based-accountability/create-baseline-trend-line-indicator/
jerrykingbaselines howto indicators trendshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:9eb11180c62b/Success Requires Saying No, Here's How The Experts Do It2023-05-24T17:00:09+00:00
https://robertglazer.substack.com/p/success-requires-saying-no-heres
jerrykinghowto Robert_Glazer say_"no"https://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:0ae4ec050963/The 14 Best Sunglasses for Your Face Shape - Buy Side from WSJ2023-05-22T02:41:50+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/buyside/style/best-sunglasses-647d1981?mod=wsj_hp_buyside_pos1
jerrykingeyeglasses howto stylishhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:9619abbd83d0/Opinion: I used to dread growing old. Then I befriended a superathlete in his 70s2023-04-30T23:53:33+00:00
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-i-used-to-dread-growing-old-then-i-befriended-a-superathlete-in-his/
jerryking> ""Outsider: An Old Man, a Mountain and the Search for a Hidden Past" by Brett Popplewell, associate professor of journalism at Carleton University.>>
On a frosty Saturday in November, 2015, an old man, Dag Aabye, led me to the top of a mountain and reframed the way I think about life, death and the limits we place on ourselves as we age..... in search of a man who was often called the world’s first >>extreme<< skier. He was 74 when I found him: a wild hermit and Norwegian ski legend who had lived alone in a school bus parked in a forest since the start of the 21st century, and who was now apparently forestalling his **dotage** [i.e. = "cognitive decline"] by reinventing himself into a trail-running superathlete in British Columbia.........I viewed every subject’s life as an arc that rose and fell over time within a set frame. I believed the impermanence of life forced us to seek out meaning from the days we were given. But I didn’t view the different chapters of life as equal. I thought childhood was important because it laid the foundation for all that followed. I viewed the middle years as the peak. And I saw >>old age<< as inescapably tragic. Time had a way of grinding people down, removing their gifts, ravaging their minds and bodies. I had bought into, and perpetuated, a narrative that told people that as they aged through life, they aged out of life itself.....Dag was fit. Fit enough to run for 24 hours straight, which he did, on multiple occasions, while competing in the Canadian Death Race. Every summer, Dag ran in that 125-km ultramarathon – one of the most gruelling on the planet. Set in the Rocky Mountain foothills of Alberta, the race leads runners up and down three mountain summits and across a river. He trained for the race endlessly, running day and night through blizzards and heatwaves, on a network of deer trails that he’d repurposed on the mountainside near his bus.......Dag viewed age as a state of mind more than an actual number. “You should never let anyone tell you that you’re old,” he said. “And you shouldn’t ask people how old they are, either. Ask them how young they are, instead.”........Dag refused to forfeit any of his independence just because other people thought it was time for him to take it easy.
He said that we as a society had a learned habit of prematurely aging each other. He reverse-engineered the old Oscar Wilde quote, the one about youth being wasted on the young; in Dag’s version, youth was abandoned by the elderly.......Dag's philosophy was a view that people often hastened their demise by **lamenting their past, limiting their present and dreading their future.** “Every day, we get to make a choice between trying to do something for what might be the last time or not trying at all,” he said. “That’s what it is to age. I might never be able to do again what I did yesterday, but I’m going to keep trying. I’d rather live like that than on a couch with a remote in my hand.”.........“Old people need superheroes, too,” he told me at one point. ........in >>popular culture<<, our superheroes are essentially young or ageless. He didn’t understand why, even when we were being creative, **we limited our vision for what we could be or achieve as seniors**.
“Of all the ways you can limit yourself, >>self-definition<< is the most powerful,” ...... I now view age less as something that defines us, and more as something that we define for ourselves........As a 40 yr. old Canadian male, I am halfway to my life expectancy.....aware that my body is deteriorating naturally, shedding muscle mass, >>bone density<< and maximal aerobic capacity. ...... I may run slower than I did when I was 30, now I go farther. I’ve begun to **view life as an ultramarathon in its own right**. Anyone who has ever competed in a race knows that you have to pace yourself, sure, but you also have to push yourself to the finish.[i.e. "discomforts"/"pushing beyond one's comfort zone"]........I reflect on something Dag told me. “I just want to be movable,” he said. “And **if I want to be movable, I’ve got to move every day**.”..........Dag's secret to longevity: avoid the aging effects of stress. “Don’t fill your life with things to worry about,” he said. He also advised me to always keep a >>journal<<. Without a journal, he never would have known that he had clocked more hours running on his trails at age 80 than he did at age 60. He liked to start each day by looking back one year in his journals. Then he would go about trying to improve on the previous year’s accomplishments........age-related deterioration to be the side effect of a >>sedentary<< lifestyle. ..........“Time is a river,” he said. “Never to return.”
“That’s a nice >>quote<<,” I replied. He smiled, and then told me to pass it on in case anyone else needed to hear it.
]]>aging arduous athletes_&_athletics behavioral_activation books centenarians cognitive_decline cognitive_skills discomforts extreme_sports hard_things hard_work howto journaling long-lived longevity marathons old_age popular_culture quotes self-definition skiing sedentariness struggles anti-aging bone_density pushing_beyond_one's_comfort_zone backcountry outdoors wilderness self-limiting senescencehttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:7511be7e50ed/How Dentists Keep Their Own Teeth Healthy - The New York Times2023-04-26T06:29:56+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/08/well/dentists-teeth-care.html
jerrykingdental howto personal_hygienehttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:fb165a9028d8/The Mental Toll of Keeping a Secret2023-04-17T21:14:05+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/03/well/mind/keeping-secrets-effects.html
jerryking>In a new book, Michael Slepian considers the costs of keeping quiet.<<
Give this article
119
Credit...Seb Agresti
]]>books classified_information howto secrecy secrets mental_tollhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:e9ec03ff2efa/How to use Quandl with Python for Data Analysis. - YouTube2023-03-31T17:21:53+00:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3GB1dn4YKk
jerrykingdata_analysis howto Python Quandlhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:7e7e5b5604de/How to completely empty your bladder in 3 easy steps - YouTube2023-03-31T07:14:20+00:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9OHUwCcY0Q
jerrykinghowto urination urologyhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:9de517358496/How to Be a Better Grandfather - The New York Times2023-03-06T02:09:21+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/03/well/family/grandfather-grandparent-how-to.html
jerrykingcultural_norms family howto kin_work parentinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:6e7cdd2e0a7c/Exercise and Aging: How to Build Strength - The New York Times2023-03-05T02:19:44+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/01/well/move/strength-exercises-aging.html
jerrykingaging exercise fitness flexibility howto strength_traininghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:9ac8352dec4f/Opinion | A War With China Would Be Unlike Anything Americans Faced Before2023-02-28T12:59:13+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/27/opinion/a-war-with-china-would-reach-deep-into-american-society.html
jerryking> “The Next Major War: Can the U.S. and Its Allies Win Against China?” by Dr. Ross Babbage <<
A major war in the Indo-Pacific is probably more likely now than at any other time since World War II.
The most probable spark is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. President Xi Jinping of China has said unifying Taiwan with mainland China “must be achieved.” His Communist Party regime has become sufficiently strong — militarily, economically and industrially — to take Taiwan and directly challenge the United States for regional supremacy.
The United States has vital **strategic interests** at stake. A successful Chinese >>invasion<< of Taiwan would punch a hole in the U.S. and allied chain of defenses in the region, seriously undermining America’s strategic position in the Western Pacific, and would probably cut off U.S. access to world-leading >>semiconductors<< and other critical components manufactured in Taiwan....Joe Biden has stated repeatedly that he would defend Taiwan.
Washington also need to avoid stumbling carelessly into a war with China because it would be unlike anything ever faced by Americans. U.S. citizens have grown accustomed to sending their military off to fight far from home. But China is a different kind of foe — a military, economic and technological power capable of making a war felt in the American homeland.....the challenges facing the United States are serious, and its citizens need to become better aware of them.
The military scenario alone is daunting: China would probably launch a lightning air, sea and cyber assault to seize control of key strategic targets on Taiwan within hours, before the United States and its allies could intervene...........China also has more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles poised to strike U.S. and allied forces in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and American-held territories in the Western Pacific. Then there’s the sheer difficulty the United States would face waging war thousands of miles across the Pacific against an >>adversary<< that has the world’s largest navy and Asia’s biggest air force.........U.S. military planners would prefer to fight a conventional war. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society.....China has increasingly viewed the United States as mired in political and social crises......Mr. Xi evidently feels that America’s greatest weakness is on its home front.....he is ready to exploit this with a multi-pronged campaign to divide Americans and undermine and exhaust their will to engage in a prolonged conflict — what China’s military calls **enemy disintegration.**......China has built formidable political warfare and >>cyber warfare<< capabilities designed to penetrate, manipulate and disrupt the United States and allied governments, media organizations, businesses and civil society........China can be expected to use this to disrupt communications and spread.....>>disinformation<<. The aim would be to foster confusion, division and distrust and hinder decision making. China might compound this with electronic and probably some physical attacks on satellites or related infrastructure.......These operations would most likely be accompanied by cyber offensives to disrupt electricity, gas, water, transport, health care and other public services......China could also weaponize its dominance of supply chains and shipping. The impact on Americans would be profound........The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods, including many with military applications, and American consumers rely on moderately priced Chinese-made imports for everything from electronics to furniture to shoes.............U.S. supplies of many products could soon run low, paralyzing a vast range of businesses. It could take months to restore trade, and emergency rationing of some items would be needed. Inflation and unemployment would surge, especially in the period in which the economy is repurposed for the war effort, which might include some automobile manufacturers switching to building aircraft or food-processing companies converting to production of priority pharmaceuticals. Stock exchanges in the United States and other countries might temporarily halt trading because of the enormous economic uncertainties.....the United States is no longer able to outproduce China in advanced weapons and other supplies needed in a war, which the current one in Ukraine has made clear. Provision of military hardware to Kyiv has depleted American stocks of some key military systems. Rebuilding them could take years. Yet the war in Ukraine is relatively small-scale compared with the likely demands of a major war in the Indo-Pacific.......So what needs to be done?.......On the military front, the United States should accelerate programs already underway to strengthen and disperse American forces in the Western Pacific to make them less vulnerable to attacks by China. At home, a concerted effort must be made to find ways to better protect U.S. traditional and social media against Chinese disinformation. >>Supply chains<< of some critical goods and services need to be reconfigured to shift production to the United States or allied nations, and the United States must pursue a longer-term strategic drive to restore its dominance in global manufacturing.......Building a stronger deterrence by addressing such weaknesses is the best means of averting war. But this will take time. Until then, it is important for Washington to avoid provocations and maintain a civil discourse with Beijing.
]]>adversaries assume_the_worst Beijing books capabilities challenges China China_rising cyber_warfare disinformation endgame geopolitics howto Indo-Pacific invasions manufacturers maritime military-industrial_complex missiles national_interests PACOM rising_powers reshoring semiconductors South_China_Sea supply_chains Taiwan U.S._Navy warfare Washington_D.C. Xi_Jinping unprecedentedhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:ffd8cc23b812/How not to be the panellist from hell2023-02-13T22:09:20+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/e858e926-f6b9-4aab-918e-86ec45f9a3f1
jerrykingconferences howto conversations panels panel_moderation preparation presentationshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:b347a3691208/How to Prep for Your First Colonoscopy, According to Experts - The New York Times2023-01-26T16:29:58+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/well/colonoscopy-prep.html
jerrykingcolons howto preparationhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:dee6e3087f0e/Opinion | How Waze Changed the Way We Drive2023-01-24T04:07:29+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/23/opinion/founder-waze-entrepreneurship.html
jerrykingbooks crowdsourcing data entrepreneur entrepreneurship GPS howto ideas Israel mapping minimum_viable_products mobile_applications navigation network_effects origin_story Peter_Coy problems problem_solving real-time traffic_congestion Waze wayfindinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:3457f1c2d131/How to Prevent Shoulder Injury2022-12-30T23:24:59+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/29/well/move/shoulder-injury-prevention.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=Well
jerrykingexercise fitness howto injuries pain prevention shoulder_exercises strength_traininghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:5de13ce3d2d5/Towards your North Star-Rep...2022-12-30T04:04:33+00:00
https://share.getcloudapp.com/llugojJp
jerrykinge-books howto North_Starhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:c5072dbf9814/First Principles: Elon Musk on the Power of Thinking for Yourself2022-12-18T23:31:10+00:00
https://jamesclear.com/first-principles
jerryking>Rene Descartes<<, the French philosopher and scientist, embraced this approach with a method now called Cartesian Doubt in which he would “systematically doubt everything he could possibly doubt until he was left with what he saw as purely **indubitable truths**.”
In practice, you don’t have to simplify every problem down to the atomic level to get the benefits of first principles thinking. You just need to go one or two levels deeper than most people. Different solutions present themselves at different >>layers of abstraction<<.
John Boyd, the famous fighter pilot and military strategist, created the following thought experiment which showcases how to use first principles thinking in a practical way.
Imagine you have three things:
A motorboat with a skier behind it
A military tank
A bicycle
Now, let’s break these items down into their constituent parts:
Motorboat: motor, the hull of a boat, and a pair of skis.
Tank: metal treads, steel armor plates, and a gun.
Bicycle: handlebars, wheels, gears, and a seat.
What can you create from these individual parts? One option is to make a snowmobile by combining the handlebars and seat from the bike, the metal treads from the tank, and the motor and skis from the boat.
This is the process of first principles thinking in a nutshell. It is a cycle of breaking a situation down into the core pieces and then putting them all back together in a more effective way. Deconstruct then reconstruct.
**How First Principles Drive Innovation**
The snowmobile example also highlights another hallmark of first principles thinking, which is the combination of ideas from seemingly unrelated fields. A tank and a bicycle appear to have nothing in common, but pieces of a tank and a bicycle can be combined to develop innovations like a snowmobile.
Many of the most groundbreaking ideas in history have been a result of boiling things down to the first principles and then substituting a more effective solution for one of the key parts.
The best solution is not where everyone is already looking.
First principles thinking helps you to cobble together information from different disciplines to create new ideas and innovations. You start by getting to the facts. Once you have a foundation of facts, you can make a plan to improve each little piece. This process naturally leads to exploring widely for better substitutes.
**The Challenge of Reasoning From First Principles**
First principles thinking can be easy to describe, but quite difficult to practice. One of the primary obstacles to first principles thinking is our tendency to optimize form rather than function.
**How to Think for Yourself**
The human tendency for imitation is a common roadblock to first principles thinking. When most people envision the future, they project the current form forward rather than projecting the function forward and abandoning the form.......Be wary of the ideas you inherit. Old conventions and previous forms are often accepted without question and, once accepted, they set a boundary around creativity.
This difference is one of the key distinctions between continuous improvement and first principles thinking. Continuous improvement tends to occur within the boundary set by the original vision. By comparison, first principles thinking requires you to abandon your allegiance to previous forms and put the function front and center. What are you trying to accomplish? What is the functional outcome you are looking to achieve?
Optimize the function. Ignore the form. This is how you learn to think for yourself.........First principles thinking does not remove the need for continuous improvement, but it does alter the direction of improvement. Without reasoning by first principles, you spend your time making >>small improvements<< to a bicycle rather than a snowmobile. First principles thinking sets you on a different trajectory.
If you want to enhance an existing process or belief, continuous improvement is a great option. If you want to learn how to think for yourself, reasoning from first principles is one of the best ways to do it.
]]>Elon_Musk first_principles James_Clear mental_models problem_solving thinking think_for_yourself Aristotle howto John_Boyd levels_of_abstraction doubt ground_truths Rene_Descartes small_improvementshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:5d7001bcf743/How to Organize Life’s Most Important Documents2022-12-01T01:08:51+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/guides/how-to-organize-lifes-most-important-documents/?searchResultPosition=1
jerryking>it’s time to develop a proper filing system.<<
What you need
- pens
- sticky notes
- a label maker (optional)
- document binders or hanging file folders
- storage containers for paperwork, such as this one, this one, or this one
- a document safe
- a paper shredder
Be prepared to spend at least 15 minutes on the task to make some progress......once your documents have a proper home, you’ll only need a few minutes a week to maintain the new system......As you organize, keep a running list of bills, notices, and other documents that have an option to go paperless, and set aside time to set them up.
**Develop a filing system**
Give each file folder a recognizable name, such as Immigration, Medical, or Taxes [year]. Then, collect everything into document binders or hanging file folders for a file bin or cabinet. Individual three-ring binders work best for smaller piles of documents, such as your Actionable stack with this month’s bills and receipts. (You can also store these in a 1-gallon freezer bag and sort through them later.)
**Evaluate what you have**
First, determine your end goal. Do you want to organize every document in your life? Or do you prefer to get rid of as much paper as possible? Then, touch every document and decide where it should go. Divide those documents into piles that make sense to you. As you sort, keep each pile organized with sticky notes. Here are some category suggestions:
Actionable: permission slips and pending bills
Household: vehicle registration, home insurance, tax documents, and medical bills; reevaluate annually
Recycle: generic junk mail, envelopes, and loose notes
Shred: anything with your personal information
Relocate: anything that belongs to someone else, such as a neighbor’s mail or employer records that you need to return to the office
[Name]: family members should have their own designations
[Project]: bathroom renovation receipts and paint swatches, or pool remodel paperwork
Archive: >> irreplaceable<< items, such as birth certificates, deeds, immigration paperwork, passports, social security cards, and estate plans (these should always go in a fireproof safe)
Adjust when you need to
It’s important to not let yourself get overloaded. Our experts say decluttering affects the head space as much as it does the physical space. ]]>categorization howto sorting what_really_matters decluttering filing_systems paperless family_records private_records self-organization irreplaceabilityhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:a04b41d2ae96/Value Proposition Design2022-11-12T20:57:56+00:00
https://www.slideshare.net/ypigneur/value-proposition-design-47698911
jerrykingbusiness_models howto value_propositionshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:8d6575322202/How To Test Your Idea: Start With The Most Critical Hypotheses2022-10-19T11:47:22+00:00
https://www.strategyzer.com/blog/how-to-test-your-idea-start-with-the-most-critical-hypotheses
jerrykingbusiness_models experimentation howto hypothesis testinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:7e75f5d25e62/How to Get Rid of Bad Breath - The New York Times2022-10-18T11:33:16+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/13/well/live/bad-breath-tips.html
jerrykingbacteria dental halitosis howto mens'_healthhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:91106d4f2de9/These Core Exercises That Keep Ballet Dancers Tall and Strong Can Help Anyone2022-10-02T11:33:01+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/these-core-exercises-that-keep-ballet-dancers-tall-and-strong-can-help-anyone-11628935200?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_2&cx_artPos=3&mod=WTRN#cxrecs_s
jerrykingabdominals ballet core_stability exercise fitness howto strength_traininghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:5ad165be0e88/How to Prevent Common Exercise Injuries2022-09-16T11:31:52+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/well/move/exercise-injuries.html
jerrykingexercise fitness howto injuries preventionhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:738d7b22ff10/How to Use a Diaper Genie: 15 Steps (with Pictures) - wikiHow2022-08-18T08:57:54+00:00
https://www.wikihow.com/Use-a-Diaper-Genie
jerrykingAggrey_King howto instructionshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:fdcae6a4e25d/Be the Favorite Aunt or Uncle You Were Destined to Become2022-08-10T09:29:05+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/be-the-favorite-aunt-or-uncle-you-were-destined-to-become-11660046442?mod=wsjhp_columnists_pos2
jerrykingElizabeth_Bernstein emotional_connections family howto listening parenting relationships kinship kin_work personal_connections serving_othershttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:17bce773c6fa/The Beatles, Beyoncé and How to Be Creative Today2022-08-07T10:23:55+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/beyonce-renaissance-album-beatles-documentary-remote-work-11659562582?mod=wsjhp_columnists_pos1
jerryking>What we can learn about collaboration and remote work from two pandemic hits<<
It’s worth reading Beyoncé.....“This three-act project was recorded over three years during the pandemic,” the pop star wrote on her website. “A time to be still, but also a time I found to be the most creative.”
That statement was a useful reminder that stuff coming out now wasn’t just made during the pandemic. It was made possible by the pandemic.
For Beyoncé, that means the escapist quality of the work itself sounds like a product of the era. For those of us who aren’t Beyoncé, it’s not just >>what<< we produce but >>how<< we produce it.........The fundamental question in creative fields right now is when it makes sense to be with each other physically and when we can be effective working virtually. To put it another, catchier way: Are we more like Beyoncé or the Beatles?........The Beatles exemplified the magic and the misery of being around other people. Beyoncé can make her music without necessarily being around other people......what's the relationship between creativity and remote collaboration??......"people are less creative when they’re not in the same physical space,” said Dr. Brucks. “But there seem to be tasks that people can perform similarly online as in person—and maybe even a little better.”
>>We may be worse at generating ideas remotely, but not at selecting ideas or executing those ideas.<<
.....economists studying the discovery of breakthrough scientific ideas recently analyzed millions of scholarly papers over seven decades and showed that we learned how to be productive through remote collaboration over the past 10 years. Technology we have come to know, love and hate during the pandemic gave us the tools to simulate working in person.....Writing music was a team sport in which most of the players never met one another even before the pandemic. The collaborators making remote contributions to Beyoncé’s latest album.....didn’t have to be with Beyoncé. They didn’t even have to be with each other.........After her long nights in the studio, engineers sent files of those sessions to these producers with an intriguing sound, and they dropped everything for their chance to work on a Beyoncé album. She selected ideas. They executed....This is how collaboration happens these days. But what’s typical now was close to impossible not long ago.........The filmmakers had the pleasure of watching four people crammed in a room pursuing creative greatness—riffing and noodling and experimenting and refining until, suddenly, almost inexplicably, the band had a masterpiece. The documentary team was trying to do the same thing.......
It begins when John Lennon is late to rehearsal and Paul McCartney is fiddling on his bass as he waits with George Harrison and Ringo Starr. He’s toying around, playing with sounds, grasping for… something. He’s got nothing and he’s going nowhere, but he doesn’t give up. He keeps tinkering. And then it happens. Something. You hear it. You see it. You feel it. Before long George is reaching for his guitar, Ringo is clapping a drumbeat and Paul is singing: “Get back! Get back! Get back to where you once belonged.” By the time John walks into the studio, the Beatles have the makings of a hit.
“They took something they had and they worked it and worked it again and kept iterating and changing it and improving little bits of it and telling each other what they liked and didn’t like,”..... “It really shows you that creative genius is a process.........John, Paul, George and Ringo had to be in the same room to bring their ideas to life. Beyoncé and her collaborators didn’t.
Neither did the people who made “Get Back.” They learned during the making of their documentary about the Beatles that they preferred to be. “It does help to be in the same room,” Mr. Olssen told me via Zoom from the other side of the world. “It’s maybe not as necessary as we used to think it was.”
]]>Beatles Beyoncé creativity howto collaboration idea_generation music remote_working songwritershttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:80115338ecbb/Opinion | How to Find Out Who You Are2022-07-29T15:47:40+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/opinion/find-who-you-are.html
jerrykingartists bad_ideas Beatles closed_systems copycats David_Brooks friendships howto mimetic self-discovery thieveryhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:aa76d714061b/How to Deal With Product Shortages: Build Your Own Supply Chain2022-07-27T15:34:45+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/building-supply-chain-prevent-shortages-11658154080?mod=article_relatedinline
jerrykingDIY howto personal_economy shortages supply_chainshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:00cd042cb7f6/How to run a business at a time of stagflation2022-07-19T00:21:34+00:00
https://www.economist.com/business/2022/06/08/how-to-run-a-business-at-a-time-of-stagflation
jerryking>“stagflation”<< is preoccupying the denizens of corner offices. Today’s executives may think of themselves as battle-hardened—they have experienced a financial crisis and a pandemic. However, the stagflationary challenge requires a different toolkit that borrows from the past and also involves new tricks.......The primary task for any management team is to defend >>margins<< and >>cashflow<<, which investors favour over revenue growth when things get dicey........To create shareholder value in this environment companies must increase their cashflows in real terms. That means a combination of cutting expenses and passing cost inflation on to customers without dampening sales volumes.
Cost-cutting will not be easy. The prices of commodities, transport and labour remain elevated and most companies are price-takers in those markets. Supply-chain constraints have begun to ease a bit and may keep easing in the coming months. But disruptions will almost certainly continue.........The input bosses can control most easily is labour. After months of frenzied hiring, companies are looking to protect margins by getting more from their workers—or getting the same amount from fewer of them. The labour market remains drum-tight.....American bosses are again demonstrating that they are less squeamish about lay-offs than their European counterparts.....the latest quarterly earnings calls more American ceos have been talking up automation and labour efficiencies........In the current climate, though, hard-headed (and hard-hearted) cost control won’t be enough to maintain profitability. The remaining cost inflation must be pushed through to customers. Many businesses are about to learn the difficulty of raising prices without crimping demand. The companies that wield this superpower often share a few attributes: weak competition, customers’ inability to delay or avoid the purchase, or inflation-linked revenue streams. A strong brand also helps. >>Starbucks<< boasted on an earnings call in May that, despite caffeinated price rises for its beverages, it has struggled to keep up with “relentless demand”.[i.e. = "rising demand"]
]]>cash_flows CEOs cost-controls cost-cutting hard_times howto inflation labour layoffs margins Paul_Volcker price_hikes productivity running_a_business stagflation Warren_Buffett price-takers rising_demand brands Starbuckshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:abe4f709a898/How to Start Investing in a Bear Market2022-06-27T05:20:23+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/24/business/how-to-invest-stocks-bear-market.html
jerrykingadvice bear_markets crypto-currencies howto investing investment_advice personal_financehttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:3beef8b020c2/Opinion | How to Celebrate Juneteenth - The New York Times2022-06-19T16:57:12+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/18/opinion/how-to-celebrate-juneteenth.html
jerrykingCharles_Blow howto Juneteenthhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:7bb89d2d1f55/How to Do Squats Correctly - The New York Times2022-06-09T12:58:38+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/23/well/how-to-do-squats.html
jerrykingexercise fitness howto squatshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:b5b5c5b624fe/How to Target the Transversus Abdominis Muscle in Abs Workouts2022-05-31T09:05:20+00:00
https://www.menshealth.com/fitness/a27305104/transversus-abdominis-workout/
jerrykingabdominals core_stability exercise fitness howto strength_traininghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:e3eca4d2f3a7/Opinion | How to Make Friends After a Pandemic — and Why You Should2022-04-18T00:41:30+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/17/opinion/culture/making-friends-covid.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=Guest%20Essays
jerrykingCOVID-19 howto friendships relationships Brad_Stulberghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:8e1d49a99006/6 Ways to Use Instagram to Promote a Consulting Business2022-03-27T15:41:18+00:00
https://surveyanyplace.com/blog/how-to-get-clients-with-instagram/
jerrykinghowto Instagram management_consultinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:55d890bbe8c8/French Onion Everything: This Season’s Most Soothing Recipes - WSJ2022-03-22T22:33:00+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/french-onion-everything-seasonal-soothing-recipes-11647617039?mod=life_work_featured_pos4
jerrykingFrench howto onions recipes soupshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:9d3978734994/How to Invest With Certainty in an Uncertain World - The Wall Street Journal Google Your News Update - WSJ Podcasts2022-03-04T06:56:03+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/google-news-update/how-to-invest-with-certainty-in-an-uncertain-world/c7c36870-da45-435a-a084-6d1f87e68122?page=1
jerryking>self-honesty<< to say I was certain last week. And now I'm certain this week. And I was certain about things that were completely contradictory. Maybe I shouldn't be so certain. You know, all it took was one geopolitical bolt from the blue to transform most people's forecasts about an uncertain event. And they took one form of certainty and replaced it with another just like that. And I think what that should tell investors is it's much better to think in terms of **probabilities and ranges of outcomes** [i.e. = "possibility space"] than it is to think about a particular point [i.e. = "point solutions"], you know? And everyone would be better off being a lot more humble [i.e. = "be less certain"/"doubt"/"humility"]] about the ability of professional forecasters to call what's going to happen next.
J.R. Whalen: And so what lessons can smaller investors learn from the big investment houses that made wholesale changes to their portfolios based on what they think is going to happen?
Jason Zweig: Well, so if you're a professional money manager, you get paid to make predictions [i.e. = "forecasting"] and to act on them. You know, if you have a forecast about where the market is headed, you pretty much have to follow through on it. If you're a small investor, you don't. You can recognize that your view of the world might well be proven wrong and nobody's staring over your shoulder who's going to judge you if your forecast turns out to be wrong or you don't act on it.[i.e. = "changing your mind"/"updating your priors"] So you have that great advantage of being able to say to yourself, well I think I know what might happen. But not necessarily having to change your investment portfolio based on it. And professionals don't have that luxury.
J.R. Whalen: All right. But not every investment is going to go as planned, geopolitical mess or not. And many investors won't be able to resist buying in an unsettled market. So what kind of mindset should they have? You know, what steps can they take to be smarter and not risk seeing their portfolio suffer substantial losses?
Jason Zweig: Well, I think one of the biggest problems investors face is making a mistake and not being willing to admit it, not fessing up when you did something wrong because it's painful. I mean, nobody wants to admit that they did something that turned out to be foolish. And one technique that I really like and I have advocated is you could imitate General Dwight D. Eisenhower who on the eve of D-Day wrote a press release that fortunately for the future of civilization he never had to use, which was called In Case of Failure. And what he did was he wrote the statement that he would read to the press if the D-Day invasion was a flop. He took responsibility for the mistake and he said it was his fault alone. And he was prepared to admit he was wrong before he even knew whether he would turn out to be right. And so before you make a big trade that might make a big difference to your portfolio results, it'd be a good idea to think about writing a note [i.e. = a "pre-mortem"] that said something like this investment has been a **failure**, so I have to sell. I based it on information that I believed at the time to be valid, but I was wrong because, and then you have to fill in the blank. Why were you wrong? And, of course, you would know because you would have hindsight. And then you could finish by saying it was a bad investment, but that doesn't make me a bad investor. It's very important to give yourself that out, to recognize in advance that you're going to make mistakes and it's okay to make mistakes. And that will enable you, I think, more easily to admit when you do make one. And that can give you the flexibility to exit and reverse a decision that hasn't worked out well a lot more easily because you haven't invested as much of yourself in it, so it would be easier for you to let go.
J.R. Whalen: But Jason, people all day will see forecasts and pundits giving their opinion on everything from the Fed, to what Russia will do, to the Chinese economy, to the U.S. economy. So what can an investor who's trying to manage their savings and their 401(k) do when they're just being beaten over the head with all of this stuff [i.e. ="financial pornography"], oftentimes at a very loud volume, all day?
Jason Zweig: One approach that I think is effective, at least for people who have some investing experience is to look back. If you've been in the markets for quite a while, look back 10 years or five years, or if you're new to the markets, look back one year. See if you can remember what investment decisions you made exactly one year ago, or five years ago, or 10 years ago, or even imagine making an investment decision in the past at those points. [Reminiscent of Suzy Welch’s 10-10-10 rule. When you’re about to make a decision, ask yourself how you will feel about it 10 minutes from now? 10 months from now? and 10 years from now? People are overly biased by the immediate pain of some choice, but they can put the short-term pain in long-term perspective by asking these questions]. And then ask yourself what decision could I have made that would've made a big difference to my portfolio results today? And if you put it in longer-term perspective, you're likely to realize that there wasn't much you could have done at the time that would've made a significant difference to your performance, which tells you that except in extraordinary turning points in market history, which can be very hard to recognize in any case, most decisions that people make are likely to make very little difference to their overall returns.
]]>certainty change_your_mind Cromwell’s_Law doubt fast-changing geopolitics howto humility invasions investing investors Jason_Zweig possibility_space probabilities Russia Ukraine uncertainty volatility decision_making Dwight_Eisenhower failure financial_pornography forecasting mistakes pre-mortems Suzy_Welch update_your_priors failure_denial self-honesty point_solutionshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:4fefdae8da04/The Best Exercises to Prevent Lower Back Pain2022-02-28T04:08:53+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/25/well/move/back-pain-exercises.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=Well
jerrykingabdominals core_stability exercise fitness howto pain strength_training instabilityhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:73e3462dba1a/Looking for Early Warning Signs of Pancreatic Cancer2022-02-07T16:37:41+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/07/well/live/pancreatic-cancer-warning-signs.html
jerrykingcancers diabetes early_warnings howto life-threatening pancreas risks risk_factors symptomshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:4fc71c10c9e5/How to Build Resilience in Hard Times - The New York Times2022-02-04T01:35:54+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/31/well/mind/building-resilience-loss.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=Well
jerrykinghard_times howto resiliencehttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:ceaa159550e5/How to Organize Your Digital Files2022-01-19T15:26:12+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/guides/how-to-organize-your-digital-files/
jerrykingfolksonomy howto keywords naming nomenclature self-organization structured_data systematic_approaches tagging work_in_progress filing_systemshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:a8ca0583cc8a/How The mRNA Vaccines Were Made: Halting Progress and Happy Accidents2022-01-17T14:04:11+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/15/health/mrna-vaccine.html
jerrykingbreakthroughs COVID-19 epidemics fundamental_discoveries howto mRNA vaccines Anthony_Fauci Moderna Pfizer-BioNTechhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:66299828a161/Stop Making Small Talk. No One Will Miss It. - WSJ2021-12-29T19:14:40+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/stop-making-small-talk-no-one-will-miss-it-11640798121?mod=hp_lead_pos13
jerryking5_W’s Communicating_&_Connecting conversations Dan_Ariely follow-up_questions howto ice-breakers likeability listening questions second-order small_talkhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:98c42fd1d826/Second-Order effects dominate our world and are worth thinking about deeply | JamesStuber.com2021-12-28T18:54:20+00:00
https://jamesstuber.com/second-order-effects/
jerryking>possibility space<<"] is huge. Let’s say we live in a simple world, where every action has only 3 possible consequences. Thinking about consequences of consequences means we have to consider 9 possibilities. Thinking one order higher grows our >>possibility space<< exponentially.
Second, second-order consequences include ‘unknown-unknowns’. Living in this chaotic world, there is no way we can account for every possibility. There will always be consequences we didn’t even think about, no matter how hard we try.
Third, second-order effects are not as defendable. When the possibility space is so large, and there are unknown unknowns, it can be difficult to convince yourself to take second order consequences seriously. Convincing others can prove even more difficult.
Our brains hate thinking hard. It’s easier to bait and switch and ask ourselves an easier question, or just ignore thinking about second-order effects.
How can we think of possible second-order effects?
It is possible to forecast second order effects. Never with 100% accuracy of course. ......Considering the possibility of higher order consequences is a useful skill to have. If developed, you can gain an advantage over first-order thinkers.
How can we become better second-order thinkers?
Ask more questions. Shane Parrish of Farnham Street suggests the following:
- What is the **range of possible outcomes** [i.e. = the "possibility spaces"]?
- What’s the probability I’m right?
- What’s the follow-on? How could I be wrong? [i.e. = do a "pre-mortem"]
Asking more questions opens you to thinking about more possibilities.
Another option: Think like a forecaster. Phillip Tetlock’s book Superforecasting outlines the thinking process of the best forecasters in the world. The Ten Commandments of Superforecasting are:
1. Focus your time and effort on forecasts that will prove rewarding.
2. Unpack problems to expose assumptions, catch mistakes, and correct biases.
3. Consider the larger category before looking at the particular case.
4. Revise your beliefs often, and in small increments, to reduce the risks of both over- and under-reacting to the news.
5. Find merit in >>opposing viewpoints<<
6. Reject the illusion of certainty and learn to think in degrees of uncertainty.[i.e. = probabilistic thinking"]
7. Avoid being either a blowhard or a waffler. Aim to be prudently decisive.
8. Learn from experience, whether success or failure.
9. Use precision questioning to bring out the best in others–and to let others bring out the best in you.
10. Try, fail, analyze, and adjust. And try again.
11. There are no universally correct commandments, including these. Question everything.
Shifting your thinking to that of a superforecaster can help you to ‘see’ second-order effects more readily.
How can we give more weight to second-order effects?
Because they are easy to think about, First order effects loom large in your mind. We all put more weight behind first order effects, and ignore or push away the harder-to-think-about second order effects.
Sometimes to compensate, we need to over-compensate. Mentally reduce how much importance you give to first order effects, or even try completely ignoring them for a while. Increase how much importance you give to possible secondary effects, to the point of absurdity.
How would your behavior change?
Conclusion
Second order effects can have a larger impact than first order effects. It is hard to think about second order effects, so we often ignore them. To compensate, we have to overcompensate, and put more weight on thinking about second order effects.
]]>complex_systems consequences decision_making foresight howto metacognition overcompensation Philip_Tetlock pre-mortems probabilities questions revenge_effects second-order Shane_Parrish thinking_deliberatively unknowns possibility_space beforemath butterfly_effect opposing_viewpoints probabilistic_thinkinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:d57673a9df58/The Economist2021-12-22T04:46:46+00:00
https://view.e.economist.com/?qs=a9986f7bb3b146ee53c7a98d77345cc0393fa4b3fa57fdaa9b5fbde14b4b1430661ca8df8ac1177dae5b62d738ebf69e5ff3ef1c0cf90cc2e098036d9b2f855e0435cee3600ef8067600089c4248a279
jerrykingdata_journalism howto indices inflationhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:dcbb2c2b7f5e/How to build a powerful business index?2021-11-14T19:54:56+00:00
https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-build-an-index-452f5018d5aa
jerrykingbaselines base_rates howto indicators indices tracking representative_variableshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:b922acc56b35/How to Present to Senior Executives2021-11-07T19:41:09+00:00
https://hbr.org/2012/10/how-to-present-to-senior-execu
jerryking>Summarize up front<<: Say you’re given 30 minutes to present. When creating your intro, pretend your whole slot got cut to 5 minutes. This will force you to lead with all the information your audience really cares about — high-level findings, conclusions, recommendations, a call to action. State those points clearly and succinctly right at the start, and then move on to supporting data, subtleties, and material that’s peripherally relevant.
Set expectations: >>Outline<< of what's coming time-wise: e.g. summary and the rest of the time on discussion.
Create summary slides: When making your slide deck, place a short overview of key points at the front; the rest of your slides should serve as an appendix. Follow the 10% rule: If your appendix is 50 slides, create 5 summary slides, and so on. After you present the summary, let the group drive the conversation, and refer to appendix slides as relevant questions and comments come up. Often, executives will want to go deeper into certain points that will aid in their decision making. If they do, quickly pull up the slides that speak to those points.
Give them what they asked for: If you were invited to give an update about the flooding of your company’s manufacturing plant in Indonesia, do so before covering anything else...... answer specific requests directly and quickly.
Rehearse: Practice before a colleague who will serve as an honest coach. ..... Ask for pointed feedback: Is your message coming through clearly and quickly? Do your summary slides boil everything down into skimmable key insights? **Are you missing anything** your audience is likely to expect?[i.e. = " looking for what's missing"]
Sounds like a lot of work? It is, but presenting to an executive team is a great honour and can open tremendous doors. If you nail this, people with a lot of influence will become strong advocates for your ideas.
]]>briefing Communicating_&_Connecting cues executive_management expectations HBR howto leaders managing_expectations managing_up Managing_Your_Career memoranda outlining pitches practice presentations rehearsals attention_spans strategic_communications presence looking_for_what's_missing headlines_titles_captions summarizationhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:e50a33a0910e/How to Brief a Senior Executive2021-11-07T19:10:35+00:00
https://hbr.org/2020/11/how-to-brief-a-senior-executive
jerryking>competing interests<<, and >>unforeseen<< circumstances can threaten to pull you off task during the meeting, but don’t lose focus.
**Practice the art of staying silent.** [i.e. = "Shut up and listen!"/"strategic silence"]
You’ve floated your idea or posed your question. The discussion has taken off and now you need to be exceedingly strategic about whether and when to chime in.......Often, **not speaking at the wrong time** [i.e. = "what not to do"] is just as important as saying the right thing at the right time.
Focusing on the interpersonal dynamics ahead of time and improving your situational awareness once in the room will make you more effective. You’ll be better placed to communicate the right message >>under pressure<<,
]]>body_language briefing Communicating_&_Connecting cues executive_management gestures HBR howto interpersonal_interactions interpersonal_skills leaders managing_up Managing_Your_Career memoranda pitches presentations pushback reading_the_room shut_up_and_listen! nonverbal situational_awareness strategic_silence presence competing_interests under_pressure plussing probabilistic_thinking what_not_to_do unforeseen time-strappedhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:0399cc02f5fc/How to put some white space in your day2021-10-16T04:00:40+00:00
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/careers/management/article-how-to-put-some-white-space-in-your-day/
jerryking>wander<< freely. If eating alone, do it alone – without television or a podcast.[i.e. = "disconnecting"/"unwired"] Give yourself permission to daydream every day for a moment or two. Organize yourself so each day begins with a moment or two of white space. Tie pauses to a cue – when you notice the sun on your face, bask in it for a quiet minute.
She says giving these breathers a title – white space, or strategic pause – emphasizes their importance and fights against the tendency to feel you’re slacking off and therefore succumb to the taskmaster of your mind.
Quick hits
**Don’t work on projects you don’t think will succeed, argues consultant Mike Shipulski. It doesn’t matter what others think: If you sense it’s a bad project, it’s a bad project and you won’t make it work out.
**Behavioural scientist Jon Levy says the greatest predictor of success isn’t IQ or what university you went to. It’s who you are connected to, how much they trust you, and the sense of community you share.
**A study suggests when we encounter a person through an image rather than in the flesh we attribute less “mind” to that individual, undervaluing their experience and abilities. In a world of remote communication, we need to be wary of how we evaluate others in such situations.
]]>Harvey_Schachter books commuting daydreaming disconnecting howto power_of_the_pause timeouts unwired white_spaces Wally_Bock free_time wanderinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:fa515c6d58eb/Opinion | The Tax Loophole That Helps America's Richest Families Stay That Way2021-09-25T01:54:19+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/24/opinion/biden-tax-loophole.html
jerrykinggenerational_wealth high_net_worth howto moguls loopholes plutocracies plutocrats gaming_the_system multigenerationalhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:5983d7b7a362/How to Clean Bathroom Tile and Grout | Reviews by Wirecutter2021-09-20T00:07:21+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/reviews/how-to-clean-bathroom-tile-grout/
jerrykingcleaning howto bathroomshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:d4be1ebdfa3d/How to Avoid Running Injuries2021-07-03T19:47:41+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/30/well/move/prevent-running-injuries.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=Well
jerrykingexercise fitness howto injuries running avoidance multiple_stressorshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:71f14e0ee58e/Ransomware attacks must be stopped — here’s how2021-06-12T15:38:33+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/8a26196c-ee82-45ad-a138-16d0884f4f09
jerryking>perpetrators<< could not function as they do if the FSB domestic security service were deployed against them......The incentives for such criminal activity should be addressed, too. As chief of the Secret Intelligence Service, I saw first-hand the effects of the non-payment of terrorist ransoms policy adopted by the UK and our allies in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing group. Such a policy is often heartbreaking to implement, but it is the right thing to do. The alternative is to finance the very activity that you are trying to prevent.
There is a case for bringing such an approach to ransomware. Opponents ask if forbidding payment in a life-threatening situation could ever be justified on moral grounds. They have a point. But a partial ban, which allowed payment in “emergency” circumstances, would simply incentivise attackers to create such a situation. And that would be the worst of all worlds.
If one accepts that this is a national security problem, then it becomes hard to defend the suggestion that governments should simply leave these decisions to private citizens. As a first step, I think it should be mandatory to disclose payments publicly and in detail. Attackers seek to present payment as the easy option. We have to change that.
We also need to look at insurance and the risks of >>moral hazard<<. Often attackers gain access to insurance policies in advance and know exactly how much they can get away with asking for. However, insurers now expect to see evidence of good quality cyber security before they write business.
Then there is the question of cryptocurrency. It is arguable that the problem would not exist without crypto, which allows for ransom payments to be made in a way that preserves the anonymity of the recipients. This is not to argue for a ban on such currencies, which are obviously here to stay. But it is to urge the development of robust know-your-customer and anti-money laundering laws fit for the digital age.
Cryptocurrencies are not untraceable: they sit on the blockchain and sometimes are more easily traced than cash. The difficulty law-enforcement agencies face is discovering the real identity, or at least the real intent, of the recipient or originator. The good news is that data and modern analytics can combine in such a way as to allow good transactions to be distinguished from bad.
And then, an irony. Often, the software used by attackers is based on code written with the best of intentions by penetration testers who help organisations probe their systems for vulnerability. While there are significant practical obstacles, we need to draw on our experience of counter-proliferation licensing techniques and identify ways in which we can restrict the use of such code to its intended purpose.
It follows that governments can and should do more but not to the point of absolving individuals and firms of their own responsibilities. A surprisingly large amount of this is about getting the cyber security basics right.
Ultimately, this is about human agency. Individually, we are easy to pick off and intimidate. But collectively, we are far from helpless. These attackers are bullies. And bullies come back for more, unless you bully them back, preferably in company.
]]>collective_action cyber_security incentives ransomware Russia spymasters criminality crypto-currencies Five_Eyes geopolitics howto insurance Vladimir_Putin Alex_Younger panaceas bullying cyberattacks FSB government-adjacent moral_hazards perpetratorshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:9da6251fe547/Opinion | A Practical Guide to Building Trust - The New York Times2021-06-11T22:06:42+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/10/opinion/distrust-respect-safety.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
jerryking>subcultures<< is bound to become a team in which distrust thrives. Mix people up so they don’t divide into cliques [i.e. = "in-group" or "small groups"].
**Don’t overvalue/romanticise/fetishize transparency. ** There is a widespread perception that people will trust you if you make your organization’s operations more visible to outsiders. This is mostly false.
**Maximum feasible vulnerability.** Screw-ups are, paradoxically, opportunities to build trust, so long as you admit error and are clear about what you’ve learned and what you’re doing to change. Prosperous times can undermine trust if leaders preen [i.e. =" self aggrandizement or self-congratulatory"]and self-promote. This kind of behavior seems selfish — and thus trust-destroying.
** Admit social ignorance. ** we’re not always so good at understanding what’s going on in other people’s minds [i.e. = being prone to misinterpretations & misjudgments"]. People who feel mis-seen and misheard will not trust you. The only solution is to constantly ask people what they are thinking and what dilemmas they are facing. Often, we send social signals that are too subtle to be received. >>Be explicit<<.
**Give away power. ** [i.e. = "delegation of authority--not tasks" a la Robert Glazer] In eras when distrust is high, hierarchies of power are usually suspect......Pyramid structures encourage a competitive win-lose mind-set, he writes, while constellation structures encourage cooperation.
**Answer distrust with trust. ** People who have learned to be distrusting will resist overtures to friendship because they assume you will eventually betray them. If you keep showing up for them [i.e. = assume "positive intent"] after they have rejected you, it will eventually change their lives.
]]>books Communicating_&_Connecting delegation distrust in-group interpersonal_interactions interpersonal_skills leaders misinterpretations misjudgement mistakes self-aggrandizement self-congratulatory self-promotion social_skills social_trust transparency trustworthiness vulnerabilities back-channels howto fetishization trust-building positive_intent subcultures explicitnesshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:29e149b5ed5e/How to Sleep: Questions and Answers - The New York Times2021-06-09T12:52:52+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/well/sleep-questions.html?action=click&module=Editors%20Picks&pgtype=Homepage
jerrykinghowto insomnia sleephttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:e8b61ef5f5b2/