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recent bookmarks from jerrykingOpinion | A War With China Would Be Unlike Anything Americans Faced Before2023-02-28T12:59:13+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/27/opinion/a-war-with-china-would-reach-deep-into-american-society.html
jerryking> “The Next Major War: Can the U.S. and Its Allies Win Against China?” by Dr. Ross Babbage <<
A major war in the Indo-Pacific is probably more likely now than at any other time since World War II.
The most probable spark is a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. President Xi Jinping of China has said unifying Taiwan with mainland China “must be achieved.” His Communist Party regime has become sufficiently strong — militarily, economically and industrially — to take Taiwan and directly challenge the United States for regional supremacy.
The United States has vital **strategic interests** at stake. A successful Chinese >>invasion<< of Taiwan would punch a hole in the U.S. and allied chain of defenses in the region, seriously undermining America’s strategic position in the Western Pacific, and would probably cut off U.S. access to world-leading >>semiconductors<< and other critical components manufactured in Taiwan....Joe Biden has stated repeatedly that he would defend Taiwan.
Washington also need to avoid stumbling carelessly into a war with China because it would be unlike anything ever faced by Americans. U.S. citizens have grown accustomed to sending their military off to fight far from home. But China is a different kind of foe — a military, economic and technological power capable of making a war felt in the American homeland.....the challenges facing the United States are serious, and its citizens need to become better aware of them.
The military scenario alone is daunting: China would probably launch a lightning air, sea and cyber assault to seize control of key strategic targets on Taiwan within hours, before the United States and its allies could intervene...........China also has more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles poised to strike U.S. and allied forces in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and American-held territories in the Western Pacific. Then there’s the sheer difficulty the United States would face waging war thousands of miles across the Pacific against an >>adversary<< that has the world’s largest navy and Asia’s biggest air force.........U.S. military planners would prefer to fight a conventional war. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society.....China has increasingly viewed the United States as mired in political and social crises......Mr. Xi evidently feels that America’s greatest weakness is on its home front.....he is ready to exploit this with a multi-pronged campaign to divide Americans and undermine and exhaust their will to engage in a prolonged conflict — what China’s military calls **enemy disintegration.**......China has built formidable political warfare and >>cyber warfare<< capabilities designed to penetrate, manipulate and disrupt the United States and allied governments, media organizations, businesses and civil society........China can be expected to use this to disrupt communications and spread.....>>disinformation<<. The aim would be to foster confusion, division and distrust and hinder decision making. China might compound this with electronic and probably some physical attacks on satellites or related infrastructure.......These operations would most likely be accompanied by cyber offensives to disrupt electricity, gas, water, transport, health care and other public services......China could also weaponize its dominance of supply chains and shipping. The impact on Americans would be profound........The U.S. economy is heavily dependent on Chinese resources and manufactured goods, including many with military applications, and American consumers rely on moderately priced Chinese-made imports for everything from electronics to furniture to shoes.............U.S. supplies of many products could soon run low, paralyzing a vast range of businesses. It could take months to restore trade, and emergency rationing of some items would be needed. Inflation and unemployment would surge, especially in the period in which the economy is repurposed for the war effort, which might include some automobile manufacturers switching to building aircraft or food-processing companies converting to production of priority pharmaceuticals. Stock exchanges in the United States and other countries might temporarily halt trading because of the enormous economic uncertainties.....the United States is no longer able to outproduce China in advanced weapons and other supplies needed in a war, which the current one in Ukraine has made clear. Provision of military hardware to Kyiv has depleted American stocks of some key military systems. Rebuilding them could take years. Yet the war in Ukraine is relatively small-scale compared with the likely demands of a major war in the Indo-Pacific.......So what needs to be done?.......On the military front, the United States should accelerate programs already underway to strengthen and disperse American forces in the Western Pacific to make them less vulnerable to attacks by China. At home, a concerted effort must be made to find ways to better protect U.S. traditional and social media against Chinese disinformation. >>Supply chains<< of some critical goods and services need to be reconfigured to shift production to the United States or allied nations, and the United States must pursue a longer-term strategic drive to restore its dominance in global manufacturing.......Building a stronger deterrence by addressing such weaknesses is the best means of averting war. But this will take time. Until then, it is important for Washington to avoid provocations and maintain a civil discourse with Beijing.
]]>adversaries assume_the_worst Beijing books capabilities challenges China China_rising cyber_warfare disinformation endgame geopolitics howto Indo-Pacific invasions manufacturers maritime military-industrial_complex missiles national_interests PACOM rising_powers reshoring semiconductors South_China_Sea supply_chains Taiwan U.S._Navy warfare Washington_D.C. Xi_Jinping unprecedentedhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:ffd8cc23b812/Always look two moves ahead. It’s important in chess and economics2023-02-05T21:43:12+00:00
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/article-always-look-two-moves-ahead-its-important-in-chess-and-economics/
jerryking>Strategic thinking<< is essential in both politics and chess,” Reeves once told the Guardian. “So I definitely feel continuing to play chess when I can helps keep me nimble in the Labour campaign to be our next government. Always thinking two moves ahead.”]]>career_paths chess economics preparation strategic_thinking anticipatory_strategic_volleying Chancellor_of_the_Exchequer endgame forward_lookinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:8beabe76b66e/Old Age Is Like a Debenture - WSJ2023-01-18T23:26:02+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/old-age-is-like-a-debenture-wisdom-advice-fame-career-gardening-patience-humility-11673991364?mod=hp_trending_now_opn_pos3
jerryking> When you know you’re living on borrowed time, [i.e. = time is your most valuable asset"] you learn to be patient and to tend your own garden.<<
A friend and I both turn 85 this year. He says we are like 10-year debentures that might get called early. His >>life-expectancy<< prediction may be generous, as the actuarial number is closer to 6 years. But the uncertainty raises the challenge of how to approach the final years. Endings have meaning. It is important to know when and how to leave each >>stage of life<<.........Macbeth laments: “Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player / That struts and frets his hour upon the stage / And then is heard no more. It is a tale / Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, / Signifying nothing.”........Leaving the stage at the right time demands >>self-awareness<<. I asked the diva soprano Beverly Sills how she knew when to retire, and she gave me this sensible answer: “I knew that to continue would not be worthy of what my audience deserved.” The wise thing for us old folks is to continue to >>self-audit<< our mental acuity and act in >>age-appropriate<< ways........ the best example is from my former headmaster, whose lifelong objective was counsel from Voltaire’s “Candide”: “Il faut cultiver notre jardin”—“we must cultivate our garden.” The garden may be tiny and perhaps hidden, but it is mine to make of it as I want........The key to contentment in old age is to define the aspects of life that remain within reach. The corollary is to surrender those things that are risky, silly or just plain stupid.....In the ninth decade of life, death is a looming omnipresence. As a lawyer, I learned not to ignore >>planning ahead<<. But I also learned the futility of trying to influence matters too far into the future. It is appropriate to leave final instructions and requests, but vital to realize the future will demand future wisdom. Injunctions from the grave are never valid..........One of the consolations of old age is the realization, as George Will has written, that one isn’t going to die young. Not everyone receives the gift of being an avuncular old soul whose voice is occasionally vibrant and who is capable of sharing pleasure and wisdom and even warmth and affection. Not all of us will avoid the grouch stage, and some of us may be >>self-centered<< and vain and impatient. Maybe we old-timers should increase the use of words of thanks and apology and politeness.......I will need to increase my patience with those who no longer accept values I believe are important like duty, honor and country. And I still embrace faith, hope and charity. But tending my own little garden might keep me from looking over the fence at what others are doing.
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Mr. Crosby told The Orange County Register in 2019 that his late-in-life resurgence was sparked by his realization that “at this stage, you don’t know if you’ve got two weeks or 10 years,” adding, “Really what matters is what you do with whatever time you have.”]]>aging cognitive_decline dying elderly elder_wisdom exits gardening George_Will life_expectancy old_age overstaying plan_ahead preparation self-audit self-awareness stages_of_life wisdom endgame age-appropriate self-centered time_is_your_most_valuable_assethttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:7a6c22dfe986/Xi Jinping’s Endgame: A China Prepared for Conflict With the U.S. - WSJ2022-10-14T22:06:52+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-congress-xi-jinping-us-11665753002?mod=hp_lead_pos5
jerrykingChina China_rising conflicts endgame U.S.-China_relations Xi_Jinpinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:823f2ca0cd53/Opinion: Deny, deny, deny all we want, but COVID-19 is still a health threat2022-08-02T20:54:18+00:00
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-deny-deny-deny-all-we-want-but-covid-19-is-still-a-health-threat/
jerryking>cognitively dissonant<< time now when COVID-19 is still very much a medical threat, but has been deemed to be over, politically, and socially.]]>COVID-19 denials health_risks threats pandemics André_Picard endgame Canada cognitive_dissonance infectiousness mistakes panaceas public_health vaccines wishful_thinkinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:281d0d57090d/Veteran chess coach says understanding your pieces, not memorization, is the key to chess success2022-05-23T12:14:03+00:00
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/article-veteran-chess-coach-says-understanding-your-pieces-not-memorization-is/
jerrykingchess endgame L-shaped play_your_position weak_links Magnus_Carlsen pawns Rooks DoFhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:4263b6f2ccec/Pulitzer-Winning Critic Wesley Morris Captured the Moment2021-07-27T02:05:56+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/26/insider/wesley-morris-pulitzer.html?action=click&module=Features&pgtype=Homepage
jerryking>memorable<<, revised-to-perfection ending [i.e. = "endgame"] . “He always **reworks** his last graph until it slays,”[i.e.= "well written"]
]]>African-Americans criticism journalists NYT Pulitzer_Prize Wesley_Morris writers blackness carpe_kairos culture cultural_criticism cultural_interpretation incisiveness race revisions self-identification popular_culture facial_hair memorableness endgame writing_wellhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:991169066eb0/Opinion | Stop Hoping the G.O.P. Will Play Ball2021-06-23T11:41:31+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/20/opinion/republicans-democrats-manchin-filibuster.html
jerrykingbipartisanship Capitol_attack Charles_Blow civil_rights Democrats Donald_Trump endgame filibuster GOP illusions Joe_Manchin obstructionism political_power power-hunger power_to_obstruct U.S._Senate uncomfortable_truths voter_suppression Voting_Rights_Act what_really_matters wishful_thinking disenfranchisementhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:3e1f7b995dba/Stockdale Paradox2020-04-17T15:12:13+00:00
https://notes.pinboard.in/u:jerryking/f613e0cc4b0371c046d0
jerrykingbooks candour captivity character_traits COVID-19 crisis defining_moments dual-consciousness economic_downturn existential false_hope gurus hard_times inspiration Jim_Collins leadership paradoxes POWs recessions Vietnam_War resilience endgame Stockdale_Paradoxhttps://notes.pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:618914ea9dd2/Year in a Word: Thucydides’s trap2018-12-19T19:43:06+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/0e4ddcf4-fc78-11e8-aebf-99e208d3e521
jerrykingGraham_Allison op-ed rivalries Thucydides_trap China China_rising conflicts endgame Huawei security_&_intelligence superpowers rising_powers grand_strategy strategic_thinking U.S.foreign_policy post-Cold_War Donald_Trump confrontations U.S.-China_relationshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:8287f32924b1/America, China and the art of confrontation2018-12-17T20:31:31+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/ec5f406a-01db-11e9-9d01-cd4d49afbbe3
jerrykingChina China_rising conflicts endgame Huawei security_&_intelligence superpowers Thucydides_Trap rising_powers grand_strategy strategic_thinking U.S.foreign_policy post-Cold_War Donald_Trump confrontations U.S.-China_relations rivalrieshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:291f6e9d8468/As China moves away from communist regime, cracks appear - The Globe and Mail2015-03-20T12:08:10+00:00
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/as-china-moves-away-from-communist-regime-cracks-appear/article23548297/
jerryking>despotism<< is severely stressing China’s system and society – and bringing it closer to a >>breaking point<<.”
He cited the eagerness of wealthy Chinese to leave the country and the risks to Mr. Xi from an anti-corruption campaign that threatens powerful entrenched interests, and also argued that economic reforms will be stillborn without accompanying political change.]]>China Xi_Jinping corruption Mao_Zedong Chinese_Communist_Party endgame entrenched_interests Beijing breaking_points despotismhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:6f7bd43a16e3/Invest like a legend: Peter Thiel2014-02-03T04:06:24+00:00
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/invest-like-a-legend-peter-thiel/article16617778/#dashboard/follows/
jerrykingPeter_Thiel endgame chess Palantir start_ups long-term personal_finance orders-of-magnitude customer_adoption market_risk Big_Tech 10x self-improvement self-betterment strategic_thinkinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:fe8605af3760/How to develop the mind of a strategist Part 1 of 3 - Google Drive2013-09-11T18:11:21+00:00
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1FgWmslPQhFbvjJECbMUJTtzYx1oYSemTq1nA-nRQIEo/edit
jerryking>Advance warning<<, plus options for solving, or at least managing, trouble
or opportunity, and the unintended consequences both often bring
Someone who understands the pattern of events and problems
Supporting evidence through the behavior of their peers
To be strategic, ideas must pass four tough tests: They must help the
boss achieve his/her objectives and goals. They must help the
organization achieve its goals. They must be truly necessary (and pass
the straight face and laugh tests). Without acting on the strategy recommended, some aspect of the business will fail or fail to progress.]]>strategic_thinking strategy public_relations Communicating_&_Connecting indispensable JCK howto endgame wisdom insights warning_signs ambiguities advice job_opportunities job_search actionable_information pattern_recognition generating_strategic_options perceptiveness advance_warningshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:8e98faf2f163/Keeping Up With Your Quants2013-07-12T18:36:54+00:00
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1oAYPOjQVH7W9Phl8Kld0KT5fk2q_F1vkQGCTissrbqk/edit
jerrykingHBR Thomas_Davenport massive_data_sets data_scientists data data_driven howto analytics decision_making quants questions endgame curiosity data_curiosityhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:f7d538d227b5/War Without End - WSJ.com2012-07-20T11:57:56+00:00
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB1002672334111247560,00.html
jerryking>endstate<<" on the matter of dealing with terrorists? Eradication, containment, or some other option? And what would the United States consider the literal and figurative >>center of gravity<
Gen. McCaffrey: Great issue to consider . . . we have too liberally borrowed from the language of science to deal with the imperfections of political and security analysis.
There will be no endstate . . . we will, if successful, manage this chronic threat to our survival, economy, and self-confidence by dramatically lowering the risk. We will build a series of defensive programs that will make a multiple order of magnitude increase in our day-to-day security. Second, we will form a coalition based on common danger. Much of the globe will join us to leverage foreign intelligence services and security forces to fight these FTO's forward in the battle area. Finally, we will at last take the gloves off and use integrated military power to find, fix, and destroy these organizations.]]>Barry_McCaffrey military_academies 9/11 security_&_intelligence terrorism endgame imperfections orders-of-magnitude West_Point centers_of_gravityhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:87bffaaf56ac/New Rules for Bringing Innovations to Market2012-07-04T16:27:29+00:00
http://www.globalsolve.org/Documents/strategic%20Planning/1/New%20Rules%20for%20Bringing%20Innovations%20to%20Market,%20The%20(HBR).pdf
jerrykingHBR innovation networks network_effects rules_of_the_game commercialization monetization product_launches howto growth managing_uncertainty cloud_computing endgame Adobe uncertainty switching_costs jump-start platforms orchestration ecosystems big_bang behaviours behavioral_change frameworks sharing_economy customer_adoption thinking_backwards new_categories early_adopters distribution_channels mass_adoption Bhaskar_Chakravorti work-back_schedules new_ruleshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:0ee77527fea7/Amazon.com: How Wars End: Why We Always Fight the Last Battle (9781416590538): Gideon Rose: Books2010-10-18T04:49:43+00:00
http://www.amazon.com/How-Wars-End-Always-Battle/dp/1416590536/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1287194538&sr=1-1
jerrykingAmazon warfare exits strategy books endgamehttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:7d5ef8e98c06/The 15 Minutes that Could Save Five Years2010-06-21T04:53:51+00:00
http://blogs.hbr.org/schrage/2010/06/the-15-minutes-that-could-save.html
jerrykingMichael_Schrage retirement HBR personal_finance aging human_capital role_models Kauffman_Foundation long-term shibboleths savings planning myths strategic_thinking endgame Second_Acts long-range invest_in_yourself JCK Zoomershttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:b50fd60d45a6/TheAtlantic.com :: Magazine :: How We Would Fight China2010-03-17T18:07:44+00:00
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/print/2005/06/how-we-would-fight-china/3959/
jerrykingU.S._Navy PACOM Robert_Kaplan China China_rising balance_of_power howto calibration adversaries rising_powers von_Bismarck power_relations endgamehttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:1cb5e12e06fc/