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recent bookmarks from jerrykingMore Startups Throw in the Towel, Unable to Raise Money for Their Ideas2023-06-10T19:18:27+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-startups-throw-in-the-towel-unable-to-raise-money-for-their-ideas-eff8305b?mod=hp_trending_now_article_pos2
jerryking> Startup shutdowns, fire sales and hard pivots are under way in the face of a downturn in the venture market <<
The pace of startup >>shutdowns<<, >>fire sales<< and sharp business-strategy changes is picking up.........Fresh capital from venture investors and bank loans is scarce and expensive. Going public is nearly impossible. Some business models that worked when cash was cheap are unsustainable now. That means venture-backed startups are running out of money [i.e. = cash-strapped"] and facing >>hard choices<<.....“The >>Mass Extinction Event<< for startups is under way,”...............Some venture investors see the impact already......“It is hitting now,” said Elizabeth Yin, co-founder of pre-seed investment firm Hustle Fund. Of her firm’s first fund, only about 60 of the original 101 portfolio companies are around. There were roughly 90 active startups a year ago. “I had modelled out before that at least half of them would die in the first three years and that didn’t happen,” she said, adding she believes the frothy market boosted >>survival rates<< before the current downturn........Larger shutdowns could put further pressure on venture returns that have been falling overall. The yearly internal rate of return for venture firms was negative 7% in the third quarter of 2022, the lowest value since 2009.........The venture-capital boom in 2021, as well as pandemic-era government funding to small businesses, likely kept businesses alive for longer than they would have otherwise [i.e. = "zombies"]......Now that those funding sources have dried up, the failures are coming in...........Venture-backed businesses in the U.S. raised $346 billion in venture capital in 2021.....Many are still surviving on that for now, investors and founders say. Some hope that they will be able to get through to a time when the market rebounds and they can consider tapping public markets........The venture market, meanwhile, has been declining. Startups in the U.S. raised $37 billion in the first quarter of this year, down 55% from the first three months of last year. The longer the venture market stays depressed, the closer many startups get to the moment of truth...........Historically, data on the number of startups that ceased operations is hard to track, researchers say. Successes, though, are rare. About 45% of some 1,100 companies that raised a seed financing round in 2017 never raised follow-on funding, according to Carta.......Getting to a successful outcome is even more rare. Roughly 16% of companies have had a successful acquisition or went public within seven years of raising their first venture capital funding, according to data on close to five thousand U.S. companies that raised first funding between 1995 and 2013. That research was conducted by Honggi Lee, of the University of New Hampshire, Tel Aviv University’s Lia Sheer and Matt Marx of Cornell University.
Failure rates may increase during downturns, Lee said. “If startups don’t have money then they cannot operate,”..........**Selling Out**......Samantha Ettus, founder and chief executive at fintech Park Place Payments, which had raised $4 million in venture funding, had to act fast when the largest investor of a planned financing failed to send the check last September. Ettus cut expenses, raised $440,000 in bridge funding from existing investors, and hired an investment bank to sell Park Place...“When I first started the company, we said we will build this [into a] billion-dollar company. I had never intended to sell so early,” Ettus said. Publicly traded Logiq acquired Park Place in April in an all-stock deal valued at more than $6 million, allowing Ettus to continue building her business with the resources of a larger company. .............**Pivots** Last year, a debt provider for fintech startup Upfront toughened the terms on a pending loan. “The covenants made the business plan not viable,” said Marc Escapa, the company’s co-founder. The company had just raised a $6 million equity round but could no longer pursue offering auto loans as it planned,.....so it >>pivoted<< and is now selling loan-origination software under the name Fuse Finance......Escapa said he’s glad that his startup hit on a new business direction that is working well. Yet the experience also showed him how macro trends **out of control of the startup** can make an idea unfeasible.
]]>bankruptcies beyond_one's_control cash-strapped cash_preservation economic_downturn failure failure_rates financial_distress fire_sales hard_choices hard_to_find mass_extinction_events pivots pullbacks restructurings selling_out shutting_down start_ups survival_rates vc venture_capital zombies cut_losseshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:45003f7b0a3d/Survival Lessons From Past Tech Downturns2022-12-16T00:12:04+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/survival-lessons-from-past-tech-downturns-11670627117?page=1
jerryking>“The Code " by Margaret O’Mara<<
>> The current tech downturn could be much worse than it appears now, say those who lived through the 2001 and 2008 crashes—but those who make it have the chance to fuel the next bubble >>
]]>'80s blitzscaling books Christopher_Mims dotcom economic_downturn Jack_Welch John_Chambers layoffs market_crashes public_spending start_ups survival_strategieshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:45ab04023aab/How CMOs Are Marketing Through a Turbulent Economy - WSJ2022-11-17T23:39:16+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-cmos-are-marketing-through-a-turbulent-economy-11668636691?mod=hp_minor_pos1
jerrykingCMOs economic_downturn marketing recessions turbulencehttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:73a500bb7d24/Inside the library of financial mistakes2022-11-14T13:57:03+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/b1aa763e-592a-49e8-99a2-e836a31df8b9
jerryking>"Boom and Bust, by John Turner and William Quinn."<<
In 1772 Douglas Heron & Co, more popularly known as the Ayr Bank, after the town where its head office was located (aptly spelt “Air” in some contemporary documents), went spectacularly bust....... In 1857 the Western Bank of Scotland, which had ridden the industrial boom in Glasgow to expand its lending book aggressively — again using paper and borrowed money — was caught out by a downturn in the market that exposed the poor quality of its lending. In addition to the failure of its biggest customers at home, the bank had been caught up in the frenzy of the American railroad mania, investing in mortgages of dubious value.......... In 1878 the City of Glasgow Bank . . . but you get the picture by now. A seemingly solid bank, which had grown much faster than its rivals, suddenly failed, triggering a chain of bankruptcies among its shareholders and creditors........Stories such as that of Ayr Bank and the Western Bank of Scotland have been familiar to a small band of academics brave enough to specialize in >>financial history<<, but they are seldom taught as >>cautionary tales<< in business schools or economics faculties and are practically unknown in the City of London or on Wall Street. >>Institutional memory<< is also short in government. Prime Minister >>Rishi Sunak<< was not even in parliament, let alone in government, during the financial collapse of 2008. His administration’s intention to soften regulatory requirements and remove the cap on bankers’ bonuses to make London’s financial services more competitive shows no understanding of the role weak >>regulation<< played in the banking collapse only 14 years ago, nor the failure to >>claw back<< the vast bonuses paid to top bankers on the basis of profits that proved to be illusory.
The man at the heart of the administration who had experienced the crash at first hand, Sir Tom Scholar, was sacked as permanent secretary at the Treasury in September. The move was described as “challenging Treasury orthodoxy”, but it might just as well have been labelled “history has nothing to teach us”...... Does it? If the politicians, the regulators or the boards and executives of any of the banks and other financial institutions on both sides of the Atlantic that were brought down by the subprime crisis of 2008 had known about past banking failures [i.e. = "institutional memory"], would it have made any difference?
“Absolutely yes,” says Russell Napier, founder and keeper of the Library of Mistakes, a financial history library in Edinburgh. “What these banks had in common with the casualties of 2007-08 is that they were expanding their balance sheets much faster than their peers. Had their boards known a little history, they would have learnt that an institution that grows like a weed is a weed. Any bank that consistently grows faster than the economy in which it operates must be at risk. It is an indicator only lately recognized by regulators, but there are plenty of historical precedents.”.......reading history provides a scepticism about the growing fashion for the “mathematization” of finance — the belief that human behaviour (the buying and selling of stocks and bonds) could be reduced to an equation. That faith persisted even after the collapse in 1998 of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management, [i.e. = LTCM"] despite having two Nobel Prize-winning economists on its board.........Napier’s studies convinced him that there were lessons to be learnt from the past. Despite innovation, very little is new in finance: someone, somewhere, will have faced similar circumstances before. We could learn by their experience, yet too often fail to do so — the same >>patterns<< of causes and effects [i.e. = "causality"] are repeated time after time. Napier is fond of apposite quotations. One of his favourites is from the American author James Grant: ++“Progress is >>cumulative<< in science and engineering, but cyclical in finance.”++ [i.e. = "cyclical learning"].......If we know the mistakes made in the past, can we avoid them in the future? Napier believes so......“Market myopia” suppressed demand, and few were interested in the failures of the past when it was easy to make money........The financial history course led to the Library of Mistakes. “People were asking, ‘where can we read about this stuff?’ But books of financial history had largely disappeared from libraries. You can do a course in finance at almost any business school without having to learn any financial history at all,” says Napier.......there is a growing trend to teach financial history more widely, but just as the Library of Mistakes would be less attractive to readers if it was plainly branded as the Financial History Library, so courses in business schools sometimes have to be “smuggled in by the back door”.................. “I’m a believer that there should be a place in the curriculum for history,” Turner adds. “ In asset pricing or insurance, for example, the long-run experience is really important. There is growing interest in the UK and the US in long-run data series — the prices of stocks, corporate bonds, government securities [i.e. "financial data"] and so on — and the longer the series, the more its value. The problem is that once you go back further than the 1980s, then definitions start to change and the way of doing things was different. That’s where you need a historian to help you understand the data.”........The question asked at the beginning of this article has been posed before. “There are several questions banks should ask themselves. Do they really pay attention to the lessons of history — for example the property crisis of the early 1970s? Did they really monitor the credit criteria which had served them well in the past?”.......The speaker was the governor of the Bank of England, but not in 2008 or following recent scandals such as the collapse of Greensill or of Wirecard. It was Robin Leigh-Pemberton in 1993, shortly after another banking crisis. His answer was clearly “no”. In finance, knowledge is >>cyclical<<.
]]>banks books boom-to-bust bubbles cautionary_tales causality central_banks cyclicality economic_downturn economic_history economics economists Edinburgh false_sense_of_objectivity finance financial_crises financial_data financial_failure financial_history historical_lessons history institutional_memory lessons_learned libraries LTCM mistakes patterns policymakers quotes recessions regulations regulators Rishi_Sunak Scotland smart_people myopic short-sightedness claw_backs cumulative cyclical_learninghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:a8340086b0ec/Tech Is Getting Boring. That’s a Good Thing. - WSJ2022-10-31T09:21:18+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/tech-is-getting-boring-thats-a-good-thing-11667016004?mod=wsjhp_columnists_pos1
jerryking> History shows that downturns are when the industry shifts focus from flashy novelties to things that are truly useful <<
During financial crises, belt-tightening leads to the rollout and broad adoption of existing but not yet widely used technologies, according to lecturer and consultant Carlota Perez, who is a favorite of some venture capitalists for her studies of what drives **revolutions in technology**.
**Cost cutting and >>hybrid work<< favor >>remote-collaboration<< tech**
**Practical automation will help keep the lights on**
**Crypto grows up**
**The metaverse becomes the most boring place of all**
]]>austerity automation Big_Tech boring Christopher_Mims cost-cutting crypto-currencies cutbacks economic_cycles economic_downturn FAANG fantasies focus hard_times metaverse recessions Roelof_Botha start_ups technology vc venture_capital Carlota_Perez hybrid_work remote_collaboration technological_revolutionshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:e4f2f374d2cf/Venture Capitalists to Tech Startups: Embrace the Downturn - WSJ2022-09-23T19:59:02+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/venture-capitalists-to-tech-startups-embrace-the-downturn-11663705011?mod=business_minor_pos12
jerrykingeconomic_downturn start_ups vc venture_capitalhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:5644e92e2fd9/Opinion: Canadian Tire’s rise in past-due accounts might be a big red flag - The Globe and Mail2022-09-15T05:03:33+00:00
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-canadian-tires-rise-in-past-due-accounts-might-be-a-big-red-flag/
jerryking>canary in the coal mine<< for Canadian consumers.
Canadian Tire’s latest numbers are for the three months from April through June, before the full effect of rapidly rising interest rates could be seen in Canadians’ curtailed spending, rising debt and declining wealth. Numerous studies have suggested Canadian consumers are among the world’s most overextended.
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What is disturbing is that a Canadian Tire (CT) card holder portfolio , which was already sub-prime - is getting worse. With a 7.6% increase in cardholders carrying a balance (70% of bank card holders pay off their balance at the end of the month) credit quality is deteriorating.
Unfortunately, disclosure of arrears in card portfolios (30, 60, 90 days past due) is paltry and OSFI is no help with its annoyingly scant and >>unhelpful<< disclosure/non disclosure of comparable data for the industry.
Anything 60 or 90 days past due is provisioned for loss before being written off at 180 days past due. There is no public data to let you know how comparatively bad the CT card portfolio is against peers.
So, Canadian Tires sales revenue could become something of a fiction if the monies CT advanced to its customers to make those sales start to default in increasing numbers - a double whammy for the CT bottom line.
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Credit card delinquency = credit card arrears
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Reminds me of an article i read a very long time ago in Barrons, i think. Featured a bit on what they called the Seven-Eleven index. Following inventory consumption beer & cigarettes. [i.e. = "alternative data"] As a lead up to recession, the company noticed a definite shift from single purchases of a dozen beer at once, to a move to six packs. Ditto for cigarettes, a definite move from a carton of cigarettes to single packs. Other multi packs showed the same trends. Back tested, it was infallible.
I bet gas station sales are the same...normally people fill up but when things slow down they don't. I used to work in a gas station in high school and we literally saw the early 90s recession hit by how many liters people put in. Single sales were lower but we had more of them as people just put in enough for a few days at a time rather than a fill. Just for kicks gas was often 49.9 and sometimes as low as 46.5 and as high as 52.5. Blast from the past! :)
I was also thinking that gas stations have >>unique data<< that could be used a leading economic indicator. Tie data on the amount of gas put in the tank with the volume of impulse purchases at the cash register and you get a pretty good idea on how consumers are feeling about spending their cash.
]]>bad_debt Canadian_Tire canaries_in_the_coal_mines credit_cards economic_downturn financial_services indicators lending overextended past-due_receivables retailers shadow_banking warning_signs red_flags consumer_finance leading_indicators subprime unhelpfulness alternative_data unique_datasets public_data delinquencieshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:4cf2b33f6e6a/Venture capital’s silent crash: when the tech boom met reality | Financial Times2022-08-02T19:51:13+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/6395df7e-1bab-4ea1-a7ea-afaa71354fa0
jerryking>FOMO<<--the “fear of missing out” ...brought a stampede at the peak of the market. It wasn’t just the high prices investors were prepared to pay not to miss the boat: periods for conducting due diligence were drastically shortened and protections that investors usually build in to protect their investments fell by the wayside.
The steady economic expansion and relaxed financial conditions that followed the financial crisis more than a decade before had led many investors to view venture capital as a one-way bet.....“Over the last 12 years, the right answer for almost every company was just to hold, and distribute [the shares] later,”.
“The incentives were lined up for keeping companies private and doing bigger and bigger rounds” of funding .......For company founders and employees, as well as the venture firms that backed them and the >>limited partners<< that supplied the capital, it looked like a gravy train. As valuations ratcheted higher, companies set up share-trading programmes for employees and executives to cash in, and investors were able to mark up their valuations with each new round of capital.
As a result, according to Vishria, the venture capital industry became bloated. Many companies stayed private far longer than was usual for a start-up, drawing on private investors rather than moving to the stock market. The size of venture funds exploded as investors put ever-larger amounts of capital to work. And investment discipline was loosened, with VCs spreading their bets widely across entire sectors rather trying to single out the small number of big winners that had traditionally provided the lion’s share of the industry’s profits.
The new investors that set the tone as venture investments ballooned included SoftBank’s Vision fund, which ploughed $100bn into the market. Tiger Global, which spread its bets widely, at one stage held more stakes in $1bn start-ups than any other investor. Both have since disclosed shattering losses: the Vision Fund registered a one-year loss of $27bn in May, the same month it emerged that Tiger had lost $17bn.
At the height of the boom, investors raced to back everything from electric vehicle companies like Rivian, which raised more than $5bn last year, to fringe tech bets that gambled on significant scientific breakthroughs to generate a return, such as >>nuclear fusion<<. “The inbound [interest] was insane,” with two or three unprompted offers of financing a week, says Jeremy Burton, a former top Oracle executive who now heads a private software company called Observe. Those approaches have stopped, he adds — a reflection of the deep chill that has fallen over the venture market as entrepreneurs and investors wait for reality to sink in and a new consensus about valuation levels to take hold.
High-risk projects
The surfeit of capital pushed new fields of science forward at a faster pace. They included technologies like quantum computing and driverless cars, “moonshot” projects that were once considered too risky or long term even for venture capital funds, which typically take a seven- to eight-year view. Significant headway has been reported by start-ups in both fields, though the truly transformative breakthroughs that venture investors hoped for remain out of reach.
That treasure chest also helped to open up risky new sectors of the economy to private start-ups. The amount of money flowing into commercial space start-ups, for instance, doubled last year to more than $15bn, according to BryceTech. In the middle of the last decade, annual investments were around $3bn a year.
Private investment has backed a flurry of novel rocket technologies, satellite systems and earth imaging services. But start-ups have also ventured on to the frontier of space exploration......With Nasa planning a return to the moon, private companies hoping to ride in its wake are already plotting lunar activities that range from mining to building cloud computing centres.
“There’s a lot more commercial activity” in areas of space exploration and research that were once considered the province of governments,......If the money dries up,......“I don’t know if it’s going to be sustainable.” Back on Earth, venture investors have been left reassessing bets in fields that were once considered among the hottest fields for start-ups. Howard Morgan, chair of New York venture firm B Capital, singles out the tech industry’s various attempts to revolutionize the transport sector as one cause of regret. The driverless car and electric scooter companies his firm invested in no longer look like they’re about to change the world.
One company B Capital invested in, scooter company Bird, was valued at nearly $3bn at the start of 2020. After going public late last year, and taking the total amount of outside capital it has raised to nearly $900mn, Bird is now worth just $142mn. “We’ve realized maybe the world isn’t ready for as many of these things as we thought,” says Morgan. Asked which sectors are likely to prove the biggest disappointments, most venture investors list the same handful: the ultrafast delivery companies, like Gopuff and Gorillas, that have set out to bring customers their grocery items in as little as 20 minutes; fintechs that embarked on an expensive campaign to build large consumer businesses; and blockchain-based ventures that have been caught up in the crypto crash.
In a recent presentation to its own investors, Coatue depicted the tumbling valuations it expects in the tech world as a series of dominoes [i.e. = "domino effect"] that are only just starting to topple...... big losses spreading, starting with unprofitable internet companies and reaching deeper into the crypto and fin-tech sectors, before eating into more solid-seeming sectors like software and semiconductors. If predictions are correct, then investors who placed the bulk of their latest funds to work at the peak of the market could be facing the sort of negative returns that have not been seen since the dotcom crash at the turn of the century.
In venture, timing is everything. The median venture fund that was raised in 1996, when the first internet boom was just gathering steam, returned 41 per cent a year over its life, according to Greenwich Associates, which tracks fund performance. But the median fund raised in 1999, at the peak of the bubble, went on to suffer a loss of 3%/yr. A repeat of that performance could drive away many of the new investors who have recently been drawn to the market. Yet even if some, like SoftBank and Tiger Global, end up being less significant forces in future, several VCs predicted that the big investors who backed those firms will look for other vehicles to invest in, meaning that competition for investments will remain high.
Resetting expectations
For most tech start-ups, meanwhile, the world has just changed drastically.
With a large amount of cash still sitting in existing venture funds, start-ups with proven businesses that are at no immediate risk from a weakening economy can still look forward to raising money on favourable terms........But most have little choice but to adjust their goals. The boom in capital-raising has left many with plenty of cash in the bank to get through two or three years of a funding drought. Yet uncertainty about when capital will next be freely available, and on what terms, has fostered an inevitable caution.
Instant delivery company Gopuff, which raised $3.4bn before the venture wave crested, is among the many well-capitalized start-ups that have moved in recent weeks to lay off staff and close facilities to conserve cash. According to one Gopuff investor, the basic unit economics of its business — the amount of revenue it can generate on each order, relative to what that order costs — are sound. But, this investor added, the expensive race for growth that was once the goal of start-ups like this no longer makes sense when capital becomes constrained. A similar calculation is being made across the start-up world. Payback periods are shortening. Hyper-growth is no longer the order of the day.
In recent years, investors became accustomed to seeing successful software start-ups tripling their revenues in the early years, .......With the reset in expectations...... “I’m not sure that still holds.” When his company gets past its early phase of product development and is ready to ramp up its marketing spending, he is already anticipating a less frenetic dash for growth: “It may be more measured or more economical growth, rather than growth at any cost.” “There’s no question, growth at any price is gone for the next few years,”.
For venture investors, it may sound like a big step back after the go-go years that are coming to an end. Yet there is a reason for the equanimity many profess: a reset brings with it the chance to pay lower prices for future investments, to back start-ups that show greater financial discipline, and to face less competition from rival start-ups funded by deep-pocketed interlopers like SoftBank......... “All the pretenders and the speculators will get wiped out. We’ll have the believers and the builders.” It’s an appealing vision that many venture investors — by definition among the professional world’s greatest optimists — subscribe to. But it is still far from clear how long it will take the venture capital market to reset, or how many of today’s investors and start-ups will still be standing when it does.
]]>anchoring breakthroughs delivery_services delivery_times denials domino_effects down_rounds due_diligence economic_downturn entrepreneur expectations FOMO founders investors IPOs Josh_Wolfe Klarna Lux_Capital market_crashes moonshots private_markets public_markets realities Richard_Waters SoftBank space_exploration start_ups Tiger_Global unheralded valuations vc venture_capital nucelar_fusion limited_partnershipshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:d6ba74c1e129/‘It will be mostly a white-collar recession’: Milken economist William Lee on how the next economic downturn will be different - MarketWatch2022-07-31T11:40:15+00:00
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/it-will-be-mostly-a-white-collar-recession-milken-institute-economist-william-lee-on-how-the-next-downturn-will-be-different-11658935183?mod=hp_minor_pos25&adobe_mc=MCMID%3D20510376152082262453962320723993196216%7CMCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%2540AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1659265344
jerryking>high demand<<, like the Amazon warehouse worker, delivery guy, the guy who’s working in the ghost kitchen.’
— William Lee, Milken Institute chief economist
“The Joe Six Pack, who used to be the first guy to be laid off, can be less concerned if he has one of these jobs that are in high demand, like the Amazon warehouse worker, delivery guy, the guy who’s working in the ghost kitchen,
.......... young professionals entering the workforce will be among the first tranche of workers let go if there’s a sharp downturn in the economy. “The entry-level white-collar guy is going to have to watch out. That’s going to be the surprise in this downturn,” he said.
The tech sector, meanwhile, has announced a wave of job losses. Shopify is laying off roughly 1,000 jobs or 10% of its workforce...........CEO and co-founder, Tobi Lütke. He wrote: “We bet that the channel mix — the share of dollars that travel through e-commerce rather than physical retail — would permanently leap ahead by five or even 10 years.” But that bet, he added, did not pay off.........low-skill white-collar workers, such as entry-level accountants, were more vulnerable as businesses upgraded their business models after weathering the worst of the pandemic. Many of these entry-level roles have been replaced by apps and new technology; alternatively, businesses simply don’t have a need for certain lower-wage white-collar workers anymore............Due to a labor shortage in key industries, Lee noted that since mid-2021, low-wage workers were receiving bigger wage increases than they got pre-pandemic.
“As the pandemic hit, a lot of people have upgraded their skills. So waiters and warehouse workers have retrained themselves to be truck drivers and maybe accountants, and they’re looking for better jobs,”
]]>blue-collar economic_downturn Joe_Six_Pack labour_shortages layoffs low-skilled Milken_Institute recessions white-collar Tobias_Lütke high-demandhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:4160770efff3/Venture Capital Feels the Stock Market’s Pain - WSJ2022-07-05T20:28:34+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/venture-capital-bear-stock-market-impact-11656706787?mod=hp_jr_pos3
jerrykingbear_markets economic_downturn inflation recessions valuations vc venture_capitalhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:21514420091f/Big hit in store for Canadian tech sector as wave of layoffs looms, industry players say - The Globe and Mail2022-06-13T23:01:05+00:00
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-bloodbath-in-store-for-canadian-tech-sector-as-wave-of-layoffs-looms/
jerrykingCanada Canadian layoffs recessions start_ups technology vc venture_capital cash_preservation burn_rates economic_downturnhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:a25e39f61a74/What CFOs Are Planning If the Economy Goes South - WSJ2022-06-06T08:28:12+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-cfos-are-planning-if-the-economy-goes-south-11654255800?mod=hp_minor_pos7
jerrykingCFOs economic_downturn playbooks recessionshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:e8dba572aa17/The Tech Crash Could Be a Talent Bonanza for Big Tech - WSJ2022-05-30T11:08:18+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-tech-crash-could-be-a-talent-bonanza-for-big-tech-11653710449?mod=wsjhp_columnists_pos1
jerrykingBig_Tech Christopher_Mims economic_downturn hiring talent FAANGhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:470276b92a3a/Silicon Valley Investors Give Startups Survival Advice for Downturn - WSJ2022-05-30T03:42:18+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/silicon-valley-investors-give-startups-survival-advice-for-downturn-11653822000?mod=hp_lead_pos4
jerryking> Venture-capital firms tell portfolio companies to buckle down for the long haul; ‘before you thrive, you have to survive’<<
In recent online slide presentations, blog posts and social-media threads, venture-capital doyens including Lightspeed Venture Partners, Craft Ventures, Sequoia Capital and Y Combinator are telling the founders that they need to take emergency action for what could be the sharpest turn in more than a decade. Their advice includes cutting costs, preserving cash and jettisoning hopes that hedge funds or other investors will swoop in with big checks......“The boom times of the last decade are unambiguously over,”....The investors’ admonitions are a departure from the growth-above-all mantra for startups in recent years, and come as the venture market is showing signs of sputtering......Startup investors have sounded alarm bells in previous moments of financial and economic tumult, including the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. But partners at venture funds say the current situation is different. In past downturns, the Federal Reserve cut rates and pumped money into markets to support the economy, providing liquidity and cheap capital. This time, the central bank has been raising rates and taking money out of the system in a bid to tame inflation.......The Fed’s moves are making capital more expensive, and increasing the pressure on companies to preserve their cash. “I would be planning to ride this thing out for at least 18 months or more,” Fred Wilson, co-founder of Union Square Ventures,
]]>advice Bill_Gurley culling economic_downturn Fred_Wilson investors recessions Silicon_Valley survival_strategies triage vc venture_capital cash_preservationhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:fd02da4197d9/Library of Mistakes – Edinburgh, Scotland - Atlas Obscura2022-05-11T16:00:47+00:00
https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/library-of-mistakes
jerryking>A library where thousands of books explain how to avoid another Great Recession<<
IN BOTH 1929 AND 2008, economic experts everywhere claimed to know exactly what they were doing, yet not a single person could fix the series of mistakes that crashed the world’s economy. To avoid future financial catastrophes, a library in Edinburgh, Scotland has compiled a collection of sensible economic literature that aims to educate the next generation of economists.
The Library of Mistakes contains over 2,000 books, all relating to economics and finance. The small, cozy room that makes up the library is packed with books by writers like Karl Marx, Milton Friedman, Paul Krugman, and Michael Lewis. Cumulatively, the collection addresses every country on the planet........The Library of Mistakes was inspired by the 2008 Great Recession, which served as a perfect example of how, according to the library’s curators, “>>smart people<< keep doing stupid things.”
The library promotes the belief that quantitative economic algorithms provide a >> false sense of objectivity <<, and that trusting these imperfect models is a recipe for disaster. The books offer readers a chance to turn to financial history as a way to learn from past mistakes instead of relying on how economics should theoretically function under unrealistic assumptions.
Its mission is to provide university students with a more accurate economic education, a holistic understanding of financial history, and a grasp of how to use books as a resource to prevent another recession.
]]>books central_banks economic_downturn economic_history economics economists Edinburgh false_sense_of_objectivity finance financial_crises financial_history historical_lessons Karl_Marx lessons_learned libraries Michael_Lewis Milton_Friedman mistakes Paul_Krugman policymakers recessions regulators Scotland smart_people cautionary_tales institutional_memory financial_failurehttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:95f32f6e7fe0/Opinion | Biden Needs to Diversify the Fed’s Leadership2021-10-25T18:42:13+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/25/opinion/federal-reserve-powell-biden.html
jerrykingappointments blind_spots boards_&_directors_&_governance books central_banking central_banks civil_society diversity economic_downturn groupthink homogeneity homophily humility impartiality inbreeding in-group intellectual_diversity Jerome_Powell Joe_Biden leadership monetary_policy SEC think_differently U.S._Federal_Reserve unconventional_thinking unthinkable Wall_Street white_men economics economists financial_crises forward-thinkinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:636d96b0f0eb/The best businesses are often born in the worst times2021-05-20T20:55:46+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/0b7bb515-ef46-4596-8e70-bde2d5bd7020
jerrykingadversity carpe_diem coding Covid-19 entrepreneur founders hard_times lemons-to-lemonade millennials start_ups economic_downturn recessionshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:d8d5b896c15f/The spread of the arbitrage economy2021-04-19T01:17:08+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/3f4f36c4-afa1-4608-bab3-8598f03789e8
jerrykingArchegos bitcoin Coinbase Deliveroo digital_assets digital_currencies economic_downturn ethereum family_office factoring gig_economy Greensill invoicing LTCM opacity regulatory_arbitrage shadow_banking taxonomy regulations regulators financial_crises value_extractionhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:5cee8b20d8d5/The fight for the future of America’s local newspapers2021-01-22T03:37:26+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/5c22075c-f1af-431d-bf39-becf9c54758b
jerrykingabandoned_fields advertising bankruptcies business_models cash-strapped civics community cost-cutting Covid-19 Craigslist digital_media economic_downturn Facebook Google hedge_funds high_net_worth investors journalism layoffs local_journalism newspapers newsstand_circulation playbooks print_journalism private_equity social_cohesion turnarounds vulture_investing zero-based_budgeting consolidation engaged_citizenry structural_declinehttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:27ffa9313c4b/Crush it: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem says a crisis is no time for half measures2020-10-04T05:40:54+00:00
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-crushing-it-bank-of-canada-governor-tiff-macklem-says-a-crisis-is-no/
jerrykingBank_of_Canada books Covid-19 crisis economics economic_downturn GoC lessons_learned mandarins Ottawa overwhelmed pandemics public_servants Rotman Tiff_Macklem UWO governorships half-measures Laurentian_Consensus Queen’shttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:4ed346a0e776/Pandemic threatens African economic success2020-08-21T01:52:45+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/3e1bcd36-d2a7-4429-af55-859e2ddf0366
jerryking>economies of scale<< or specialization. **Small is not beautiful, it is >>unproductive<<**. Africa needs more companies capable of organising a workforce into specialised, collaborative teams, disciplined by competition. Yet even the firms that Africa has are bleeding from the economic impact of coronavirus.
Firms in Africa has are bleeding from the >>economic impact<< of **coronavirus.**
This shock is not predominantly a result of Africa’s health crisis. The causes are the sharp downturns in advanced economies. Commodity prices have dropped and Africa is a major net exporter. Ghana and Senegal are losing oil revenues that would have financed infrastructure. The slump in global tourism is a heavy blow for Rwanda, whose economic development strategy focused on tourism and conferences. By 2019 it had become the second most-visited country in Africa for these purposes. Now this business has collapsed. Senegal and Ethiopia are major recipients of remittances from citizens working abroad. Normally, these rise during a domestic crisis, but in this global emergency Africa’s diaspora are losing their jobs. This also hits the most desperate places such as Yemen.
Finally, the retreat of international capital to safety is hitting hardest the countries that were most promising for investors. Ghana was attracting US pension fund money and major companies such as Volkswagen and Bosch. All four shocks are eroding Africa’s scarce organisational capital and are likely to persist for the medium term.
Why is this the West's problem and not just Africa’s? Because Africa’s shocks are forms of transfer. The fall in commodity prices, which has reduced incomes in Africa, has softened the impact of Covid-19 on the commodity-importing economies of the EU and China. Similarly, the collapse of tourism is a transfer of demand. The people no longer buying Africa’s tourist services are spending their money closer to home. The capital no longer flowing into Africa is a transfer of finance. It is now available for domestic spending in OECD countries and China. These effects are inadvertent, but they are damaging and indefensible. They urgently need to be offset.
]]>commodities economic_development economic_downturn Ghana Senegal sub-Saharan_Africa unproductive Africa agriculture capital_flows COVID-19 economies_of_scale Ethiopia informal_economy organizational_capital pandemics remittances Rwanda smallholders tourism small-scale Diaspora economic_impacthttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:36691fc406da/America’s largest shopping mall owner gets a new tenant: itself2020-08-18T17:22:15+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/f25ff5aa-e1b8-4296-903a-3fa3f85ecb44
jerrykinganchor_tenants bricks-and-mortar core_businesses department_stores economic_downturn e-commerce foot_traffic investors JCPenney landlords lockdown occupancy_rates opportunistic pandemics REITs shopping_malls store_closings bankruptcies brands Brookfield commercial_real_estate COVID-19 dealmakers diversification Neiman_Marcus physical_retail private_equity recessions retailers Simon_Property deal-making distressed_assets fallen_angels orphan_brandshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:2ca714415913/Building back better requires systemic shifts2020-07-30T22:18:44+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/72b1fbd7-6059-4cb9-835d-c608acc3e603
jerryking>counter-productive<<.
The potentially severe downturn caused by Covid-19 comes on top of longstanding economic frailties such as declining investment and low-quality jobs in a number of western economies. Since the mid-2000s productivity has barely been growing in the UK and other OECD countries.
Public-sector austerity has also reinforced geographical divides: educated workers in big cities have generally done ever-better, while others have seen their towns left ever further behind. Regional health inequalities now have ominous epidemiological consequences.
We face systemic challenges. Is this the crisis that will finally trigger real changes — as the 2008 financial one did not?.....The challenge for policymakers talking about building back better is to make sure they mean it.
]]>austerity centralized_control clichés counterintuitive COVID-19 economic_downturn health_inequalities health_outcomes interconnections metrics over-centralization pandemics policy post-coronavirus_era productivity public_sector rebuilding recessions rethinking societal_change systemic_challenges United_Kingdom counter-productive forensics hard_truths businessman_fallacy experimentation policymakers joined-up policy_failures devolutionhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:c6fedae94925/Too Interconnected to Fail2020-07-28T04:27:33+00:00
https://notes.pinboard.in/u:jerryking/25a687f3703234056d26
jerrykingeconomic_downturn interconnections SPOF systemic_risks interdependence politicians regulators Amazon Apple AT&T AWS banks Comcast Covid-19 crisis cross-sector data_driven data_scientists network_risk nodes risks threats concentration_risk networks hidden hubs modellinghttps://notes.pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:11e4108d0b2b/Opinion | It’s 2022. What Does Life Look Like?2020-07-10T17:39:51+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/10/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-economy-two-years.html
jerryking>baseline scenario<<: a vaccine will arrive sometime in 2021-- Until then, the world endures waves of sickness, death and uncertainty....Many things will not change. That’s one of history’s lessons. The financial crisis of 2007-9 didn’t cause Americans to sour on stocks, and it didn’t lead to an overhaul of Wall Street. The election of the first Black president didn’t usher in an era of racial conciliation. The 9/11 attacks didn’t make Americans unwilling to fly. The Vietnam War didn’t bring an end to extended foreign wars without a clear mission.....
** Weak companies will die -- Local newspapers will be one casualty. Traditional department stores another.... the virus has interrupted in-person shopping and caused many consumers to shift even more business online, to Amazon, Target and Walmart.....Higher education......The virus is exacerbating almost every problem that colleges faced......Cuts to higher-education budgets could make it even harder for poor and middle-class students to graduate....
** Habits will change --remote learning during the pandemic — from preschool through college --was disappointing. On the other hand, white-collar workers' experiences with videoconferencing doesn’t replace the richness of in-person conversations, but many meetings work perfectly well over Zoom, FaceTime or Google Meet..... several major companies don't expect to use as much Manhattan office space as they did before the pandemic.....In-person meetings and conferences will continue to happen. But the threshold for what requires travel, and the time, cost and fatigue it brings, will rise........The larger theme is that crises can force or accelerate behavior changes. Some of the old behavior will revert when the pandemic ends. But not all of it will. In some cases, people will realize that they were sticking to old habits out of inertia and prefer their new habits
** Politics will shape the economy -- The biggest source of uncertainty about the post-virus American economy is political. Past crises have transformed the economy, but almost always because of government policy.....The Civil War allowed Abraham Lincoln and his allies to create a transcontinental railroad and a national network of public universities. The Great Depression led to a raft of federal laws that reduced inequality. The housing crisis that began in 2007 helped elect a Democratic president and Congress that extended health insurance to millions of people........One of the key post-virus implications could be further consolidation in many industries, with big companies becoming even bigger......Consolidation, in turn, tends to increase income and wealth inequality,.....A big Trump loss, amid a pandemic and recession, could jolt the Republican Party into being more open to government action. ....A progressive agenda is shaping up to have two defining features. The first is reducing inequality — through higher taxes on the rich, greater scrutiny of big companies, new efforts to reduce racial injustice and more investments and programs for the middle class and poor, including health care, education and paid leave. The second is acting on climate change, which could cause even more global misery than the coronavirus.
.............Biden may not seem like a history-altering figure, certainly like less of one than Barack Obama did. But he could wind up presiding over a larger scale of political change than Mr. Obama did, for reasons largely independent of the two men themselves.........“Although you had this crisis, you didn’t have the ideas that were ready to go,” ..... progressives are better positioned to pass sweeping change in 2021 than they were in 2009, after the financial crisis. ...... progressives have spent years working through the details of plans on climate change, high-end tax increases, antitrust policy and more........In less than 15 years, the United States has suffered the biggest two economic crises since the Great Depression, the worst pandemic in more than a century and the election of two presidents unlike any before them — and diametrically unlike each other. If there is a single lesson of the current era of American politics, it’s that change can happen more quickly than we imagined (i.e. punctuated equilibrium).
]]>baselines climate_change Colleges_&_Universities crisis cruise_ships department_stores e-commerce economic_downturn future habits ideas in-person income_inequality Joe_Biden lessons_learned new_normal Obama pandemics post-coronavirus_era punctuated_equilibrium restaurants seminal_moments shopping_malls store_closings the_Great_Depression theme_parks think_tanks vaccines viruses WWII health_insurance rapid_change historical_lessons progressivism local_journalism scientific_breakthroughshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:24e4c58c1ce0/Brookfield to provide $5-billion to cash-strapped retailers for stake in business -2020-05-08T02:06:30+00:00
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-brookfield-to-provide-5-billion-to-cash-strapped-retailers-for-stake/
jerrykingBrookfield economic_downturn e-commerce investors lockdown opportunistic pandemics private_equity recessions retailers shopping_malls anchor_tenants bankruptcies cash-strapped commercial_real_estate COVID-19 funding landlords physical_retail store_closingshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:b921318416d1/The Coronavirus Revealed America’s Failures2020-04-22T17:11:04+00:00
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/06/underlying-conditions/610261/
jerrykingAmerica_in_Decline? civil_servants civil_service COVID-19 crisis crony_capitalism Donald_Trump economic_downturn failed_states fault_lines fractured_internally George_Packer gridlocked_politics healthcare income_inequality Jared_Kushner leadership nepotism Obama pandemics partisan_politics politics political_polarization right-wing Sarah_Palin U.S. viruses conflicts_of_interest cronyism plutocracies plutocratshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:8cdcbca38d14/Who will be the winners in a post-pandemic economy? | World Economic Forum2020-04-21T04:46:12+00:00
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/post-pandemic-economy-favour-fastest-movers/
jerrykingagility artificial_intelligence automation BYOD cloud_computing digital_strategies economic_downturn government_stimulus grocery post-coronavirus_era pandemics recessions repurposing resilience restaurants supermarkets supply_chains universal_basic_income workplaces global_economy digital-firsthttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:ba1135b8696f/Coronavirus Forces Tech Startup Founders to Grow Up Fast2020-04-19T03:52:51+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-tech-startup-founders-silicon-valley-economy-11587163061?mod=hp_lead_pos8
jerrykingblitzscaling cost-cutting COVID-19 economic_downturn founders hard_choices hard_times layoffs pandemics recessions Silicon_Valley start_ups pullbackshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:96a281a8d0f5/Stockdale Paradox2020-04-17T15:12:13+00:00
https://notes.pinboard.in/u:jerryking/f613e0cc4b0371c046d0
jerrykingbooks candour captivity character_traits COVID-19 crisis defining_moments dual-consciousness economic_downturn existential false_hope gurus hard_times inspiration Jim_Collins leadership paradoxes POWs recessions Vietnam_War resilience endgame Stockdale_Paradoxhttps://notes.pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:618914ea9dd2/Exit unicorns, pursued by bears - Technology startups are headed for a fall | Briefing | The Economist2020-04-08T16:39:24+00:00
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/04/04/technology-startups-are-headed-for-a-fall
jerrykingCOVID-19 economic_downturn recessions Sequoia start_ups unicorns Michael_Moritzhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:e86a8a8242de/The CEO who built Cisco into a powerhouse has a sobering coronavirus diagnosis: At least nine months of economic pain - MarketWatch2020-04-08T04:30:45+00:00
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ceo-who-built-cisco-into-a-powerhouse-has-a-sobering-coronavirus-diagnosis-at-least-nine-months-of-economic-pain-2020-04-07?mod=hp_minor_pos19&adobe_mc=MCMID%3D40386264467971997291122119096518373306%7CMCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%2540AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1586313309
jerrykingCEOs Cisco COVID-19 crisis culling digital_strategies economic_downturn Fortune_500 John_Chambers North_Star pandemics reinvention start_ups viruses post-coronavirus_erahttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:bf47141c6090/Guyana must prepare for the looming economic catastrophe - Stabroek News2020-04-05T22:43:27+00:00
https://www.stabroeknews.com/2020/04/05/opinion/letters/guyana-must-prepare-for-the-looming-economic-catastrophe/
jerrykingcatastrophes COVID-19 debt economic_downturn Guyana instability letters_to_the_editor local_content preparationhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:1f096b4d6043/Historical lessons for unprecedented times | TVO.org2020-04-02T06:50:18+00:00
https://www.tvo.org/article/historical-lessons-for-unprecedented-times
jerrykingCanada Canadian history lessons_learned pandemics universal_basic_income 9/11 AIDS Cold_War COVID-19 economic_downturn GoC HIV the_Great_Depression unemployment_rates whole-of-government WWI WWII Spanish_flu historical_lessonshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:adbec6380e89/How Philanthropists Are Helping During the Crisis - The New York Times2020-04-01T03:26:14+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/your-money/philanthropy-coronavirus.html
jerryking>vetting<<.[i.e. = "due diligence" so that there is a "check-and-balance" preventing a donor from doing double-duty as both cheerleader and monitor.]
** Double down on your regular charities.
** Be a bridge for government aid.
** Speed up your long-term giving plans.
** Be open to bending the rules.
** Use your voice for the greater good.
]]>adaptability charities COVID-19 doubling_down economic_downturn high-impact high_net_worth moguls philanthropy recessions nonprofit financial_crises checks_and_balances cheerleading due_diligence monitoring vettinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:17cff20cf0d7/Scary Times for U.S. Companies Spell Boom for Restructuring Advisers2020-03-31T16:42:40+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/business/coronavirus-companies-restructuring-bankruptcy.html
jerrykingAlixPartners bailouts bankruptcies COVID-19 cruise_ships foot_traffic FTI law_firms private_equity retailers economic_downturn recessions turnarounds restructurings financial_criseshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:8e03c7e5ef12/Startup Funding Dwindles Due to Coronavirus Slowdown2020-03-27T21:15:46+00:00
https://notes.pinboard.in/u:jerryking/9622b9efa51563908bf0
jerrykingacquihires angels automation Big_Tech corporate_investors COVID-19 early-stage Fortune_500 funding investors large_companies layoffs pandemics start_ups valuations viruses economic_downturnhttps://notes.pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:888f546c74c6/Great Escapes: Expensify CEO David Barrett’s Five Books to Help Weather the Storm2020-03-21T11:08:54+00:00
https://www.barrons.com/articles/great-escapes-expensify-ceo-david-barretts-five-books-to-help-weather-the-storm-01584740915?mod=hp_minor_pos25&adobe_mc=MCMID%3D64429048710458450750763419891671319363%7CMCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%2540AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1584788687
jerrykingbooks booklists CEOs economic_downturn hard_times pandemics reading_lists Jared_Diamond science_fiction Jane_Austen Cixin_Liu Liu_Cixin Kim_Stanley_Robinsonhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:5fcd0fbc798f/Some VCs Urge Startups to Jump on Opportunities Amid Downturn; While fear grows in the market, some companies become more aggressive2020-03-19T23:22:22+00:00
https://notes.pinboard.in/u:jerryking/d6ecfc350befdba081fc
jerryking>taking stock<< of their portfolios and making projections about how the bear market and the coronavirus pandemic coul...]]>economic_downturn healthcare opportunities recessions start_ups vc venture_capital COVID-19 cash_preservation taking_stock seizing_opportunitieshttps://notes.pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:9caed8b4304b/How many tech start-ups will survive the market turmoil?2020-03-15T18:23:38+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/52a272dd-6575-4623-9ca4-18889bebad2d
jerrykinganniversaries COVID-19 dotcom economic_downturn pandemics recessions Richard_Waters Sequoia start_ups vc venture_capital turmoilhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:80b0e1ff3823/Investors dole advice to struggling start-ups2020-03-04T20:39:45+00:00
https://notes.pinboard.in/u:jerryking/f32eebfee03ccd62a8af
jerrykingadvice angels cash_reserves crisis culling exits financial_distress founders investors John_Doerr layoffs Ron_Conway selling_out start_ups triage vc venture_capital economic_downturn burn_rates cash_preservationhttps://notes.pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:77f0266a1584/Venture Capitalists Battle to Keep Portfolios Afloat --- New Investments Buttress Companies Already Launched2020-03-04T20:07:53+00:00
https://notes.pinboard.in/u:jerryking/a352611fe77227eedd48
jerrykingculling economic_downturn start_ups recessions triage vc venture_capitalhttps://notes.pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:f69a3890156b/Plugged in: New signs of life begin to show for venture investors2020-03-04T19:47:12+00:00
https://notes.pinboard.in/u:jerryking/0b6f954724e50c4fc4e2
jerrykingeconomic_downturn recessons start_ups vc venture_capitalhttps://notes.pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:a41c8ce05670/Venture Capital Forced to Perform Triage2020-03-04T19:16:19+00:00
https://notes.pinboard.in/u:jerryking/58b887f7b0119cbc95cc
jerrykingculling Pui-Wing_Tam start_ups triage vc venture_capital economic_downturn recessions Darwinianhttps://notes.pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:c2781c1b42c3/BlackRock’s black box: the technology hub of modern finance2020-02-26T15:25:09+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/5ba6f40e-4e4d-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5
jerryking>chokepoint<< if either faced a **shock** — a cyber attack, a rogue line of code or a sudden crisis for the company — destabilizing the financial system.....Although Aladdin does not tell asset managers what to buy or sell, the worry is that if a large enough portion of global assets respond to the warnings that Aladdin gives off, trillions of dollars will react to events — such as the outbreak of a pandemic or war in the Middle East — in the same way, causing dangerous *herding behaviour*. [i.e. = "hidden risks"].....Aladdin creates the potential for “>>groupthink<<” .......Aladdin’s critical role within high-profile companies also makes it a prime target for cyber crime. .....Aladdin’s risk tools are designed to support, rather than replace, portfolio managers.....The scale of BlackRock’s dominance in both the investment industry and in providing its plumbing has led to potential >>conflicts of interest<<. As the world’s biggest asset manager, BlackRock is among the top shareholders of most listed companies globally, including many Aladdin clients.........Aladdin — which stands for asset, liability, debt and derivative investment network — began as a simple ledger for bond portfolios shortly after BlackRock was founded in 1988. As it grew, BlackRock extended its use for certain clients. The first was General Electric, which in 1994 was selling Kidder Peabody, the beleaguered brokerage, but was unsure how to price the assets on its balance sheet. A series of similar one-off arrangements eventually led BlackRock to offer Aladdin as a product in 2000.....Powerful trends have buffeted Aladdin’s rise. Investing has become more electronic and reliant on big data. As the tools that process the information have become more complex, investors, fund managers and insurers have turned to larger platforms such as Aladdin to replace multiple specialised systems.
]]>Aladdin asset_management BlackRock cyber_security economic_downturn hackers Hank_Paulson herd_behaviour institutional_investors Laurence_Fink one-time_events origin_story platforms portfolio_management regulators rivalries Second_Acts systemic_risks tools trends U.S._Federal_Reserve U.S.Treasury_Department Wall_Street conflicts_of_interest financial_system analytics government_contracts crisis risk-management choke_points exogenous_shocks groupthink hidden_risks cyberattacks risk-assessmenthttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:22a6978f47b6/As the Start-Up Boom Deflates, Tech Is Humbled2020-02-24T20:28:26+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/24/technology/tech-start-up-boom-deflate.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=Business
jerrykingcannabis investors layoffs pullbacks scale_downs skepticism SoftBank start_ups unicorns vc venture_capital shutting_down cost-cutting economic_downturn Josh_Wolfe Lux_Capitalhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:fbddbb114eaa/My Thoughts On “Startup Depression” – AVC2019-12-29T00:02:20+00:00
https://avc.com/2008/09/my-thoughts-on/
jerrykingeconomic_downturn recessions start_ups Fred_Wilsonhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:5e1ef1925521/Who Wants a Market Downturn? These Investors Actually Do - The New York Times2019-12-13T02:09:03+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/06/technology/market-downturn-venture-capital-investors.html
jerrykingeconomic_downturn investors KKR preparation recessions start_ups vc venture_capitalhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:99251b68980d/What Will a Recession Do to Venture Capital? | Real Vision2019-12-10T20:50:31+00:00
https://www.realvision.com/tv/shows/interviews/videos/what-will-a-recession-do-to-venture-capital
jerryking>inflection point<<. Wolfe and Pal discuss the idea that inflated >>valuations< in venture capital are being caused by the incremental buyer's desperate search for growth. Wolfe warns that if the cycle indeed turns, a liquidity crisis could emerge. Filmed on July 9, 2019 in New York.]]>recessions Softbank vc venture_capital economic_downturn inflection_points start_ups indicators warning_signs valuations business_cycles Josh_Wolfe Lux_Capitalhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:39cd801eed80/Stock Market Drops. VCs Hold Partner Meetings. What Happens Next? | TechCrunch2019-11-29T06:16:07+00:00
http://techcrunch.com/2011/08/09/stock-market-drops-vcs-hold-partner-meetings-what-happens-next/
jerrykingentrepreneurship history technology economy business via:sha economic_downturn investors recessions start_ups vc venture_capitalhttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:0544d8f13781/Contrasting Strategic Response to Economic Recession in Start-Up Versus Established Software Firms2019-11-29T06:13:01+00:00
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228314172_Contrasting_Strategic_Response_to_Economic_Recession_in_Start-Up_Versus_Established_Software_Firms
jerrykingeconomic_downturn recessions start_upshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:0a2df82cdce2/What Companies Should Do to Prepare for a Recession2019-11-29T05:50:26+00:00
https://hbr.org/2019/05/what-companies-should-do-to-prepare-for-a-recession?referral=03758&cm_vc=rr_item_page.top_right
jerrykingpreparation economic_downturn recessionshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:3a5128da0cf2/How to Survive a Recession and Thrive Afterward2019-11-29T05:49:16+00:00
https://hbr.org/2019/05/how-to-survive-a-recession-and-thrive-afterward
jerrykingeconomic_downturn howto recessions survival_strategieshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:d135e389950e/Your Startup May Be Worth Less Than You Think2019-11-29T05:46:45+00:00
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/203374
jerrykingeconomic_downturn recessions start_ups valuationshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:5a9545320680/What Happens To Startups In The Next Recession?2019-11-29T05:45:24+00:00
https://news.crunchbase.com/news/what-happens-to-startups-in-the-next-recession/
jerryking>target price<< similarly slashed. Or a public company may use its stock to acquire a private company; therefore, when stock prices are down, a public company has less liquid assets to conduct acquisitions, meaning the private company might have to reduce its valuation to be acquired at all. And when late-stage valuations come down in private markets, then early-stage valuations necessarily do, too, since expected exit values decrease.
Early-stage valuations would also suffer because the cost of capital increases. Most venture capital funds raise frequently—roughly every two to four years. In a (prolonged) downturn, it seems likely that high-risk, high-reward venture capital funds become less attractive to investors. When VCs have a harder time accessing capital, there’s less for them to invest in startups, and the capital they do have on hand would likely be invested more conservatively. This means that raising capital would generally be more expensive for startups: VCs would demand more equity, startups would raise less money per round, and valuations will be lighter.
This spells existential trouble for many startups. >>Paul Graham<< likes to differentiate between startups that are default-dead and default-alive. A company is default-dead [i.e. = "zombies"] if they need to raise more money to survive; otherwise, they’ll run out of cash and declare bankruptcy. In 2018, a great number of startups are default-dead. There’s been a great proliferation of these default-dead startups in recent years, because venture financing has been so easily accessible.
For example, Postmates or WeWork can post losses for years on end, subsidizing user growth in the hopes of ultimately flipping the profit-switch and making huge profits on tiny margins at gargantuan scale. Most startups that I know are unprofitable in this way, and project being unprofitable for the foreseeable future, such that they definitely need the next round of financing to survive.
These default-dead companies don’t have a lot of runway either.[i.e. = "burn rates"] Conventional wisdom is to raise about every 18 months, which implies that most startups never have more than two years of cash in the bank. A given startup in this cycle might have a year’s worth of runway in the bank. So if valuations suddenly tank, these startups are going to be in serious trouble due to a lack of time and difficulty in fundraising. Some may even perish in the absence of cheap capital.
However, for most startups, a harsher fundraising environment means raising money on worse terms. Practically speaking, it means that startups will raise down rounds at valuations smaller than what previous raises commanded. Critically, down rounds severely diminish the value of the common stock. Most venture investments are made with anti-dilution protections, which means that prior investors (owners of preferred stock) will get to own proportionally more of a company if it undergoes a down round. It is the holders of common stock/options—founders and employees of the company—who bear the brunt of the financial loss in this case. Employees usually own options, which have a strike price: a price the employee needs to pay in order to turn the option into stock. It’s not uncommon to see a down round leave shares valued close to or below the strike, making the employee’s option package worthless.
This has troubling implications for startup employees, because stock options are usually sold to them as a major part of their compensation, and startups should expect an economic downturn before an exit. If you work at a default-dead startup that needs to raise another round, then the big question is whether your company will raise the round before the next economic downturn (and whether it will then have enough cash to weather the storm or reach profitability). If not, and your startup is forced to raise a down round, then the value of your options is on the line.
These implications are ultimately also troubling for the less well-positioned VCs: there may come a day when their entire portfolio of default-dead companies gets marked down by a double-digit percentage. The model of VC-subsidized startup growth, while deferring immediate profitability, is a precarious dance. We don’t know exactly when the next macroeconomic downturn will strike, but default-dead startups, their investors, and most of all, their employees, may come to find they’ve been climbing a house of cards.
This is especially critical in today’s startup market, since acquisitions by blue-chip companies have become a cornerstone of exit strategies.↩
Because public equities are on discount, while the valuations of the VC’s portfolio companies will be heavily marked down. It’s likely poorly positioned VC funds will shut their doors altogether.↩
One complication is that most startup employees have nowhere near the information to assess those cases. They almost certainly don’t know the terms their company raised on. Even elementary figures like the most recent valuation are often not known by employees.↩
Furthermore, it’s worth keeping in mind that in a market downturn, consumer activity slows. Startups that are default-alive right now would become default-dead in a downturn because its market will have shrunk.↩
]]>economic_downturn recessions start_ups down_rounds bull_markets valuations vc venture_capital zombies bear_markets burn_rates founders Paul_Graham stock_options market_corrections target_priceshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:a9aa1832f384/For Start-Ups, Cash Is King (Again)2019-11-18T17:40:13+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/17/technology/start-ups-cash.html?searchResultPosition=1
jerrykingeconomic_downturn preparation recessions start_ups cash_reserves burn_rates cash_preservationhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:cc82f9f43a84/Smart Startup Advice: Don't Panic - Profit2019-11-18T16:35:33+00:00
https://www.businessinsider.com/2008/12/startup-advice-how-to-make-the-collapse-work-for-you
jerrykingadvice economic_downturn panic recessions start_ups vc venture_capital staying_calmhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:f701924319bc/Will liquidity in the VC world dry up with an incoming recession? What will happen to startups as a result? - Quora2019-11-18T14:23:38+00:00
https://www.quora.com/Will-liquidity-in-the-VC-world-dry-up-with-an-incoming-recession-What-will-happen-to-startups-as-a-result
jerrykingeconomic_downturn liquidity recessions venture_capitalhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:3c76847dc703/Sequoia Capital | Michael Moritz: Lessons from a Long-Ball Hitter|2019-11-08T16:09:54+00:00
https://creativecapital.wordpress.com/tag/sequoia-capital/
jerrykingbooks Cisco economic_downturn Georges_Doriot hard_times lessons_learned Michael_Moritz presentations reality_checks Ron_Conway Sequoia Spencer_Ante start_ups tough-mindedness vc venture_capitalhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:0248419687e8/CIBC Acquires Accenture's Tech Venture Portfolio - WSJ2019-11-04T20:24:08+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1028648536705001000
jerryking>limited partnership<< interests in venture funds," said Scott Conners, a principal at Landmark Partners Inc. of Simsbury, Conn. "It's much less diversified, and managers of corporate venture units don't normally have the same disciplines as the traditional venture fund managers. Also, even if they had the requisite management skills, why not handpick your own investments rather than acquire other people's baggage?"
According to sources, Accenture had been negotiating with frontrunner Thomas Weisel Partners LLC of San Francisco. Credit Suisse First Boston, retained as investment adviser, was also believed to be a potential buyer. Neither could be reached for comment.
CIBC gave no details on the transaction, due to close at the end of the year. As with all secondary market transactions, it remains subject to transfer approvals from companies within the portfolio.
Some secondary market sources said they had given Accenture's offer a "quick look" but declined because the portfolio consisted of direct investments that are tougher to manage or require undetermined extra financing to make them viable.
"They've been trying to sell for a long time now, and it didn't look spectacular to me," said one potential New York buyer.
Conners added: "Many corporate venture deals tend to be 'me-too' deals that they pay a high price for."
CIBC executives described the deal as "an attractive investment" opportunity.
"The acquisition clearly demonstrates our commitment to the technology sector generally and software specifically," said Marshall Heinberg, a CIBC World Markets managing director and head of U.S. corporate finance, in a statement.
It isn't clear whether the transaction will include the transfer of any managers from Accenture Technology Ventures, the Palo Alto, Calif., business unit that made the original investments, to help manage the assets.
CIBC's venture group, consisting of six investment professionals, makes direct investments as part of CIBC Capital Partners. Its portfolio currently includes about 50 companies, primarily in North America. Since its inception in 1989, CIBC Capital Partners has invested more than $1 billion.
The firm would not elaborate on its secondary market activities, but one New York-based secondary specialist said CIBC hasn't bought such interests since a $300 million purchase nearly two years ago.
Accenture, which split from Arthur Andersen LLP and was formerly known as Andersen Consulting, said it will continue its existing client relationships with companies in the portfolio.
Accenture made only direct investments in companies, putting in $2 million to $30 million, according to New York financial markets research firm Capital IQ. Portfolio companies include AltoWeb Inc., a Palo Alto-based supplier of application production platforms, and Epylon Corp., a San Francisco-based online procurement company.
Accenture and CIBC World Markets also said they plan to join an alliance to offer CIBC access to Accenture's technology-sector knowledge.]]>Accenture CIBC early-stage mergers_&_acquisitions venture_capital portfolio_management corporate_investors selling_off exits secondary_markets start_ups economic_downturn limited_partnershipshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:441776dd4adb/How CIOs Can Prepare for a Downturn - WSJ2019-10-23T06:07:05+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-cios-can-prepare-for-a-downturn-11571701947?mod=hp_minor_pos4
jerrykingCIOs economic_downturn howto preparation recessionshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:97ae8694de51/Software sector braces for a split among leading companies2019-08-26T19:12:35+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/ac6a7fa6-c558-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9
jerrykingcloud_computing economic_downturn recessions Richard_Waters SaaS Salesforce software uncertaintyhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:2c047e8430de/How to Prepare for the Next Recession: Automate the Rescue Plan2019-05-17T11:56:12+00:00
https://notes.pinboard.in/u:jerryking/3a05f9e2df1a28cf2479
jerrykingcomplexity economic_downturn ecosystems howto letters_to_the_editor modelling models Nassim_Taleb oversimplification preparation recessions financial_crises complex_systems engineer's_mindset ex_post_factohttps://notes.pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:3efadb52590e/A preacher for Trump’s America: Joel Osteen and the prosperity gospel2019-04-22T17:00:55+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/3990ce66-60a6-11e9-b285-3acd5d43599e
jerryking>The Power of Positive Thinking" by Norman Vincent Peale<<
>>Blessed: A History of the American Prosperity Gospel, by Kate Bowler<<
Optimism, hope, destiny, harvest, bounty — these are Lakewood’s buzzwords. Prosperity too. Words that are rarely heard include guilt, shame, sin, penance and hell. Lakewood is not the kind of church that troubles your conscience.....the market share of US churches run by celebrity prosperity preachers such as Osteen, Creflo Dollar (sic), Kenneth Copeland and Paula White keeps growing. Three out of four of the largest >>megachurches<< in America subscribe to the >>prosperity gospel<<. Formal >>religion<< in the US has been waning for years. Almost a quarter of Americans now profess to having none. Among the >>Christian<< brands, only “non-denominational charismatics” — a scholarly term for the prosperity preachers — are expanding.......About the only book that >>Trump<< is known to have read from cover to cover is "The Power of Positive Thinking" by >>Norman Vincent Peale<<, the grandfather of the prosperity gospel. It has sold five million copies since it was published in 1952. His message is that the more you give to God, the more he will give back in return......The prosperity gospel is all about harvesting the seed. The more money you plant in God’s church, the greater your heavenly bounty. Wealth is a mark of God’s benevolence. >>Poverty<< is a sign of godlessness...........The more you consider Lakewood’s business model, the more it seems like a vehicle to redistribute money upwards — towards heaven, perhaps — rather than to those who most need it. Like all religious charities, Lakewood is exempt from taxes. All donations to it are tax deductible. It has never been audited by the IRS......On the left, the prosperity gospel is attacked for encouraging reckless spending by those who can least afford it. Among Lakewood’s night classes is Own Your Dream Home. Leaps of financial faith fit into Osteen’s view that God will always underwrite true believers........Some of the home repossessions in the 2008 crash were blamed on irresponsible advice from the prosperity churches, which are concentrated in the Sun Belt. In her book Blessed: A History of the American Prosperity Gospel, Kate Bowler says the churches have created a “deification and ritualisation” of >>the American dream<<.......people who are depressed should shun the company of other depressed people.... Addicts must steer clear of other addicts. The poor should avoid others who are poor.......“If you’re struggling in your finances, get around blessed people, generous people, people who are well off,” Osteen advises. Misery loves company, he says. Avoid miserable people.........Osteen’s idea of whether God would have hesitated before creating the universe. “He didn’t check with accounting and say, ‘I am about to create the stars, galaxies and planets,’” says Osteen. He just went ahead and did it. All that is holding the rest of us back is a lack of >>self-belief<<: “God spoke worlds into creation,”........The more one listens to Osteen, the harder it is to shut out Trump. Their mutual guru, Norman Vincent Peale...**Believe in yourself** like others believe in their product, was Peale's message. “Stamp indelibly on your mind a mental picture of yourself as succeeding,” wrote Peale. “Hold this picture tenaciously. Never permit it to fade.”
.........People often ask why so many blue-collar Americans still support Trump in spite of his failure to transform their economic prospects. They might need to widen their aperture. To many Americans, Trump’s wealth and power are proof of God’s favour. That alone is a reason to support him. ]]>blue-collar churches Christianity Donald_Trump Edward_Luce Joel_Osteen leaps_of_faith mega-churches pastors positive_thinking prosperity_gospel religion the_American_Dream self-belief tithing books economic_downturn abundance true_believers Norman_Vincent_Peale povertyhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:6ae0e62338c0/How to write business that will survive the debt cycle | Financial Times2019-03-30T19:34:47+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/e5ae16c6-2ed4-11e9-80d2-7b637a9e1ba1
jerrykingalternative_lenders alternative_lending economic_downturn howtohttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:abdaa37c1798/Why further financial crises are inevitable2019-03-20T09:59:52+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/d9d94f4a-4884-11e9-bbc9-6917dce3dc62
jerryking> “shadow banking” <<.
* Ideological
the tendency to view this complex system through a simplistic lens. The more powerful the ideology of free markets, the more the authority and power of regulators will tend to erode. Naturally, public confidence in this ideology tends to be strong in booms and weak in busts.
* Political
the financial system controls vast resources and can exert huge influence. In the 2018 US electoral cycle, finance, insurance and real estate (three intertwined sectors) were the largest contributors, covering one-seventh of the total cost. This is a superb example of Mancur Olson’s Logic of Collective Action: concentrated interests override the general one. This is much less true in times of crisis, when the public is enraged and wants to punish bankers. But it is true, again, in normal times.
Borderline or even blatant corruption also emerges: politicians may even demand a share in the wealth created in booms. Since politicians ultimately control regulators, the consequences for the latter, even if they are honest and diligent, are evident.
A significant aspect of the politics is closely linked to regulatory arbitrage: international competition. One jurisdiction tries to attract financial business via “light-touch” regulation; others then follow. This is frequently because their own financiers and financial centres complain bitterly. It is hard to resist the argument that foreigners are cheating.
* Human
There is a human tendency to dismiss long-ago events as irrelevant, to believe >> This Time is Different << and ignore what is not under one’s nose. Much of this can be summarised as “disaster myopia”. The public gives irresponsible policymakers the benefit of the doubt and enjoys the boom. Over time, regulation degrades, as the forces against it strengthen and those in its favour corrode.
The cumulative effect of these efforts is quite clear: regulations erode and that erosion will be exported. This has happened before and will do so again. This time, too, is not different.
]]>boom-to-bust bubbles complacency corruption disaster_myopia entrenched_interests economic_downturn financiers financial_regulation financial_system historical_amnesia Mancur_Olson Martin_Wolf policymakers politicians politics procyclicality regulatory_arbitrage regulators U.S._Federal_Reserve stress-tests This_Time_is_Different financial_crises collective_action financial_innovation regulations public_confidence complex_systems historical_lessons free_markets ideologies shadow_bankinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:412a4f0540fc/5 Ways to Value Your Collection, Whether It’s Fine Wine or Shrunken Heads2019-03-03T01:12:44+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/01/your-money/collectibles-value-market.html
jerrykingcollectibles collectors high-risk howto obscure valuations AIG auctions assets brands eBay economic_downturn esoteric fine_arts high-end high-quality investing investments passions unpredictability whisky step_change online_auctions provenance rarity wines asset_accumulationhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:1c6c4e61fa18/Opinion | The American Dream Isn’t for Black Millennials2019-01-06T02:35:57+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/05/opinion/sunday/american-dream-black-millennials-homeownership.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
jerrykingAfrican-Americans downward_mobility economic_downturn millennials the_American_dream subprime predatory_practices racial_disparities home_ownership redlininghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:63200c618553/Roaring Out of Recession2018-10-28T04:02:28+00:00
https://hbr.org/2010/03/roaring-out-of-recession
jerrykingHBS economic_downturn recessionshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:7b39c0671c74/Five surprising outcomes of the 2008 financial crisis2018-09-14T13:19:27+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/73e3ae2a-b1ca-11e8-8d14-6f049d06439c#comments-anchor
jerrykingeconomic_downturn finance Gillian_Tett predictions pundits surpriseshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:36592a5d7e1c/