Pinboard (jerryking)
https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/public/
recent bookmarks from jerrykingFinancial Lessons from Divorce: Navigating High Costs and Avoiding Pitfalls - WSJ2024-03-04T11:14:33+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/financial-lessons-from-divorce-b4601bad?mod=hp_lista_pos1
jerrykinganticipating divorce personal_finance pitfalls relationshipshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:d5949d811bce/Flooding – when will we learn?2021-07-07T13:07:07+00:00
https://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2021/07/07/flooding-when-will-we-learn/
jerrykinganticipating editorials floods Guyana Guyanese preparation beforemath carelessness climate_change contingency_planning fallback_positions firefighting_mode disaster_preparedness emergencies readiness caught_off-guard muddling_through Groundhog_Day same_old-same_old canals drainagehttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:205bac83c46f/(1) What do 10x software developers understand that other programmers don't? - Quora2021-05-17T18:02:22+00:00
https://www.quora.com/What-do-10x-software-developers-understand-that-other-programmers-dont
jerryking10x anticipating coding hardware problem_framing problem_solving Quora software software_developers software_development high-achievinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:afa74025b566/Only scientists and voters can change the politics of catastrophe | Financial Times2021-05-14T19:18:08+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/3c1cd92b-707c-4511-b17c-5a30f3a0fed2
jerrykinganticipating artificial_intelligence bioterrorism books catastrophes co-ordinated_approaches COVID-19 cyber_warfare environmental_degradation historians leadership man-made Niall_Ferguson pandemics pre-emption predictability preventable_deaths risks scientists societal_resilience threats voters what_really_matters frequency_and_severity natural_calamities nuclear_proliferation threat_landscapehttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:7ea91aa64b4b/The power of negative thinking2020-10-23T20:01:02+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/96654b10-df40-49f3-83e2-046ae9e6a73f
jerryking>slip base<<”, which joins an upper pole to a mostly buried lower pole using easily breakable bolts. A car does not wrap itself around a slip-based pole; instead, the base gives way quickly. Slip-base systems are clever for two reasons:
(1) specifically, their detailed design.
(2) more generally, is a way of thinking which anticipates that things sometimes go wrong and then plans accordingly.
Invite people with the relevant expertise to consider the failure modes of the systems or projects or ideas that I am contemplating…..We should spend more time thinking about the prospect of failure and what we might do about it [i.e. = "pre-mortems"]. It is a useful mental habit but it is neither easy nor enjoyable………humans thrive on optimism because it is a more pleasant and natural pursuit to **hope for the best**. There is a risk that overindulging in the prospect of failure might paralyze us with anxiety such that success, too, becomes impossible. Judgement is required: not thinking about failure is bad. But thinking too much about it, and burdening your ideas, projects, and systems with back-up procedures introduces complexity and new ways to fail.………It is hard to think productively about the risk of failure. But that does not mean we shouldn’t try. There are three benefits to doing so:
(1) contingency planning: if you anticipate possible problems, you have the opportunity to prevent them or to prepare the ideal response.
(2) the possibility of rapid learning: pursue a feedback loop of of fly (i.e. action) —> crash —> adapt that is quick and cheap. When launching a new project, think about prototyping, gathering data, designing small experiments and avidly searching for feedback from the people who might see what we do not…..If you go in expecting that things will go wrong, you’re better off designing your projects to make learning and adapting part of the process. When we ignore the possibility of failure, when it occurs it is more likely to be expensive and harder to learn and recover from.
(3) we may avoid projects that are doomed from the outset. From the invasion of Iraq to the process of Brexit, seriously exploring the daunting prospect of disaster might have provoked the wise decision not to start in the first place.
……. All around us are failures — of business models, of pandemic planning, even of our democratic institutions. [We ought to contemplate] designing "slip bases" for everything.
]]>accelerated_lifecycles adaptability anticipating beforemath books cleverness contingency_planning dark_side data_collection design design_thinking experimentation failure feedback_loops lessons_learned messiness optimism prototyping spreadsheets street_furniture stress-tests thinking_tragically Tim_Harford worst-case democratic_institutions negativity_bias slip_bases natural_order_of_life pre-mortems hope_is_not_a_strategyhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:6c113b9190f9/What coronavirus tells company boards about the next crisis2020-05-27T16:03:19+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/3369fbc0-8b07-11ea-a109-483c62d17528
jerrykinganticipating boards_&_directors_&_governance COVID-19 decoupling deglobalization digitalization heterogeneity organizational_culture pandemics post-coronavirus_era risk-management scenario-planning crisis crisis_management different_perspectiveshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:64217dc8b6b8/Barbara W. Tuchman, Folly and the Stream of History - The New York Times2020-05-09T04:04:17+00:00
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/14/books/review/barbara-w-tuchman-march-of-folly.html
jerrykingalt-right anticipating Barbara_Tuchman blind_loyalty books Donald_Trump fallacies_follies historians history Jon_Meacham lessons_learned Niccolò_Machiavelli overreach questions self-destructive statecraft the_human_condition truth-telling historical_lessons wooden-headedness 5_W’s brutal_honesty straight-shooting ruling_classes truth-seeking advice-seekinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:8313617a6918/Opinion: Canada must be ready for the mayhem Trump’s about to unleash2020-03-27T11:21:50+00:00
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canada-must-be-ready-for-the-mayhem-trumps-about-to-unleash/
jerrykingAnthony_Fauci anticipating beforemath Canada COVID-19 crossborder disaster_preparedness disease Donald_Trump health_risks Justin_Trudeau mayhem NSC pandemics pandemonium PMO quarantines short-sightedness social_distancing threats viruses White_House epicentershttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:ca2c1275976f/Clear goals, involving multiple stakeholders can pave the way for greater change2019-10-28T15:39:52+00:00
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/careers/management/article-clear-goals-involving-multiple-stakeholders-can-pave-the-way-for/
jerrykingbacklash change change_management clarity Communicating_&_Connecting counter-revolutions failure goals Harvey_Schachter John_Kotter organizational_change overconfidence preparation quick_wins resistance transformational under-communication urgency values obstacles anticipatinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:1839f2c95428/We need to be better at predicting bad outcomes2019-09-21T19:42:42+00:00
https://www.ft.com/content/374fd3fa-dac1-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17
jerryking> "Seeing What Others Don’t" by Gary Klein, psychologist<<
A question some of us ask all too often, and some of us not often enough: what if it all [jk: our plan] goes wrong?.....we don’t think about worst-case scenarios in the right way......
The first problem is that our sense of risk is pretty crude. The great psychologist Amos Tversky joked that most of us have three categories when thinking about probabilities: “gonna happen”, “not gonna happen” and “maybe”.....It would be helpful if our sense of risk was a little more refined; intuitively, it is hard to grasp the difference between a risk of one in a billion and that of one in a thousand. Yet, for a gambler — or someone in the closely related business of insurance — there is all the difference in the world.....research by Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock and Hal Arkes suggests that making a serious attempt to put probabilities on uncertain future events might help us in other ways: the process makes us more humble, more moderate and better able to discern shades of grey. Trying to forecast is about more than a successful prediction......we can become sidetracked by the question of whether the worst case is likely. Rather than asking “will this happen?”, we should ask “what would we do if it did?”
The phrase “worst-case scenario” probably leads us astray: anyone can dream up nightmare scenarios.....To help us think sensibly about these worst-case possibilities, Gary Klein, psychologist and author of Seeing What Others Don’t, has argued for conducting “>>pre-mortems<<” — or hypothetical postmortems. Before embarking on a project, imagine receiving a message from the future: the project failed, and spectacularly. Now ask yourself: why? Risks and snares will quickly suggest themselves — often risks that can be anticipated and prevented.......Contingency planning is not always easy......woes that would result both as the “base case” (the truth) and a “worst-case scenario” (the government sucking in its stomach while posing for a selfie).
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In our increasingly airbrushed world, it becomes ever more necessary to ask the unfashionable questions like ‘what could possibly go wrong?’ - and then plan for it...
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Humanity's survival may well rely on the ability of our imaginations to explore alternative futures in order to begin building the communities that can forestall or endure worst-case catastrophes.
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]]>Amos_Tversky anticipating base_rates beforemath books contingency_planning discernment failure forecasting foresight frequency_and_severity humility nuanced predictions preparation probabilities risk-assessment risks Tim_Harford uncertainty worst-case imagination post-mortems messages_from_the_future pre-mortems Philip_Tetlockhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:60b3c024cdf4/The Optimist's Telescope: Thinking Ahead in a Reckless Age2019-09-04T21:55:41+00:00
https://www.amazon.ca/Optimists-Telescope-Thinking-Ahead-Reckless/dp/0735219478/ref=asc_df_0735219478/?tag=googlemobshop-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=341828283098&hvpos=1o2&hvnetw=g&hvrand=15692753826263199441&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=m&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9000899&hvtargid=pla-813734923151&psc=1
jerrykingoptimism climate_change beforemath books recklessness anticipating far-sightedness foresight forward_looking decision_making ideas immediacy instant_gratification precaution human_nature long-term forward-thinkinghttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:0bd69d5a5990/The Bank of England future-proofs itself – MainStreetEcon2018-06-27T01:50:25+00:00
http://mainstreetecon.com/the-bank-of-england-future-proofs-itself/
jerrykingBank_of_England central_banks monetary_policy frameworks policymakers anticipating future-proofinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:cc325b96f310/The Six Laws of Technology Everyone Should Know WSJ2017-11-27T19:34:52+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-6-laws-of-technology-everyone-should-know-1511701201?mod=trending_now_3
jerryking>political power<< or >>cultural power<< or something else.”
Craig Federighi, Apple senior vice president, software engineering, spoke about >>differential privacy<<, which Apple says is a way to collect user data while protecting the individual’s anonymity. More broadly, lawmakers are taking an interest in everything from privacy and data transparency to national security and antitrust issues in tech—more because of a shift in our culture than in the technology itself.
5. ‘All history is relevant, but the >>history of technology<< is the most relevant.’ The Cold War led to the buildup of nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them anywhere on Earth. That led to the development of a war-proof communication system: the internet..... But does that mean we owe the modern world to the existential contest between the U.S. and the former U.S.S.R.? Or was that conflict itself driven by previous technological developments that allowed Hitler to threaten both nations?
6. ‘Technology is a very human activity.’ “Technology is capable of doing great things,” .....how we use technology is up to us. The trick is, because technology generally reaches mass adoption via corporations, those businesses must think of the consequences of their actions as well as how they profit from them. When corporations don’t, regulators, journalists and the public sometimes do it for them.
As Prof. Kranzberg presciently noted at the dawn of the internet age, “Many of our technology-related problems arise because of the unforeseen consequences when apparently benign technologies are employed on a massive scale.”]]>technology Christopher_Mims Cold_War contextual privacy anonymity unintended_consequences cultural_power high-achieving necessity nuclear overachievers political_power problems scaling tradeoffs unforeseen anticipating differential_privacy mass_adoption history_of_technology nuclear_weaponshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:6bd432802bf1/Tornado-Ravaged Hospital Took Storm-Smart Approach During Rebuild - Risk & Compliance Journal.2017-09-05T03:10:28+00:00
https://blogs.wsj.com/riskandcompliance/2017/08/30/tornado-ravaged-hospital-took-storm-smart-approach-during-rebuild/
jerrykingdisasters Hurricane_Harvey extreme_weather_events hospitals tornadoes design rebuilding preparation emergencies lessons_learned worst-case natural_calamities anticipating insurance vulnerabilities large_companies redundancies business-continuity thinking_tragically high-risk risk-management isolation compounded network_risk black_swan beforemath frequency_and_severity resilience improbables George_Anders hazards disaster_preparedness what_really_matters low_probability loss-mitigationhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:c86179da8b26/Four qualities the wealthy look for when seeking out advisers - The Globe and Mail2017-08-30T02:50:19+00:00
https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/globe-wealth/four-qualities-the-wealthy-look-for-when-seeking-out-advisers/article36117888/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&
jerrykingfinancial_advisors high_net_worth advice asset_allocation assumptions contrarians roadmaps unarticulated_desires uncertainty wisdom risk-tolerance investment_advice anticipating boundaries boundary_conditions level-headedness character_traitshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:4d7fe4df1b2c/Rules for Modern Living From the Ancient Stoics -2017-06-08T15:55:30+00:00
https://www.wsj.com/articles/rules-for-modern-living-from-the-ancient-stoics-1495723404
jerryking>prepared mind<< may make all the difference between success and disaster.
(4) Be mindful of the here and now (i.e. living in the moment). The past is no longer under your control: Let it go. The future will come eventually, but the best way to prepare for it is to act where and when you are most effective—right here, right now.
(5) Before going to bed, write in a personal philosophical diary. This exercise will help you to learn from your experiences—and forgive yourself for your mistakes.
Stoicism was meant to be a practical philosophy. It isn’t about suppressing emotions or stalking through life with a stiff upper lip. It is about adjusting your responses to what happens, enduring what must be endured and enjoying what can be enjoyed.
]]>Stoics philosophy Romans journaling self-discipline mindfulness span_of_control preparation beforemath sense_of_proportion the_big_picture anticipating contextual forward_looking foresight GTD perspectives affirmations beyond_one's_control chance living_in_the_moment Greek personal_control mybestlife equanimity Marcus_Aurelius plan_ahead prepared_mindhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:241fbef8d5b1/The Power of ‘Why?’ and ‘What If?’ - The New York Times2016-07-04T01:17:52+00:00
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/03/jobs/the-power-of-why-and-what-if.html?ref=business&_r=0
jerryking>curious<<, more cognizant of **what they don’t know**, and more >>inquisitive<< — about everything, including “Why am I doing my job the way I do it?” and “How might our company find new opportunities?”....Companies in many industries today must contend with >>rapid change<< and rising >>uncertainty<<. In such conditions, even a well-established company cannot rest on its >>expertise<<; there is pressure to keep learning what’s new and anticipating what’s next. It’s hard to do any of that without asking >>questions<<.
Steve Quatrano, a member of the Right Question Institute, a nonprofit research group, explains that the act of formulating questions enables us “to >>organize our thinking<< around what we don’t know.” This makes questioning a good skill to hone in dynamic times.....So how can companies encourage people to ask more questions? There are simple ways to train people to become more comfortable and proficient at it. For example, question formulation exercises can be used as a substitute for conventional >>brainstorming<< sessions. The idea is to put a problem or challenge in front of a group of people and instead of asking for ideas, instruct participants to generate as many relevant questions as they can.......Getting employees to ask more questions is the easy part; getting management to respond well to those questions can be harder.......think of “what if” and “how might we” questions about the company’s goals and plans........Leaders can also encourage >>companywide<< questioning by being more curious and >>inquisitive<< themselves.]]>questions curiosity humility pretense_of_knowledge unknowns leadership cost_of_inaction expertise brainstorming dynamic change uncertainty rapid_change inquisitiveness Dr.Alexander's_Question leaders companywide asking_the_right_questions 5_W’s anticipating idea_generation ideas incisiveness information_gaps innovation counterfactuals organize_your_thinkinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:47a55b99c041/Brace yourselves: Trump is going to win - The Globe and Mail2016-05-16T18:06:36+00:00
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/brace-yourselves-trump-is-going-to-win/article30029924/
jerrykingDonald_Trump Campaign_2016 anticipating crossborder preparation prudence Derek_Burney readiness thinking_tragically worst-casehttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:91010e53f6b6/THE OXFORD ANALYTICA STORY: OXFORD IN BRIEF2016-05-05T04:31:13+00:00
https://notes.pinboard.in/u:jerryking/c5766e8ed73c9587a0a0
jerrykingPDB security_&_intelligence critical_thinking disinformation NSC questions memoranda decision_making Henry_Kissinger signals noise deception APNSA briefing realities anticipating strategic_thinking future_bias role-playing U.S.foreign_policy forward_looking situational_awareness sense-making anticipatory_strategic_volleyinghttps://notes.pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:61bcb2f11fec/Critical Thinking Frameworks2016-03-01T04:01:16+00:00
https://www.evernote.com/client/web#?n=3c65c867-6a11-435b-9e91-07a614c8c957&query=Critical%20Thinking%20Frameworks&s=s32&
jerrykingcritical_thinking frameworks questions probabilities contextual interpretative assumptions sense-making conventional_wisdom anticipating cheatsheetshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:35e382a7aa48/From terrorism to technological disruption: Leaders need to tackle risk - The Globe and Mail2016-02-23T19:32:02+00:00
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/from-terrorism-to-technological-disruption-leaders-need-to-tackle-risk/article28402829/
jerryking>circuit breaker<<” mechanism to halt trading, only to abandon it after it appeared to make the drop in the market even worse.
The lesson is that sometimes “business practices and even business products that seem acceptable today, for whatever reason, when something happens can be considered things you shouldn’t be doing. There’s more policy unpredictability than ever before,” Ms. Ecker says.
“In an increasingly risky world, a CEO needs to be increasingly flexible and adaptable. You also need to have a team and know what the latest threat might be.”
That isn’t necessarily easy, she adds. “There’s no rule book. When I was in politics, people used to ask me what we should anticipate. I’d tell them, ‘Read science fiction books.’ ”....CEOs in today’s risky world also need people skills that may not have been necessary before, says Shaharris Beh, director of Hackernest, a Toronto-based not-for-profit group that connects worldwide tech companies.
“CEOs have always needed strong skills around rapid decision-making and failure mitigation. In today’s >>hypercompetitive<< startup business climate, leaders need two more: pivot-resilience and proleptic consensus leadership,” he says.
“Pivot-resilience is the ability to tolerate the stress of gut-wrenching risks when dramatically shifting strategy. In other words, be able to take the blame gracefully while still warranting respect among your team members.”
Proleptic consensus leadership is especially important for startups, Mr. Beh says. “It’s the ability to garner the team’s support for taking big risks by giving them the assurance of what backup plans are in place should things go sour.”
This consensus building “is how you keep support,” he adds. In a volatile economy, “people can jump ship at any time or even unintentionally sabotage things if they’re not convinced a particular course of action will work.” So you have to constantly persuade.]]>law_firms law risks CEOs risk-management disruption BLG leaders pivots resilience consensus risk-taking contingency_planning unpredictability political_risk regulatory_risk policymakers flexibility adaptability anticipating people_skills circuit_breakers science_fiction market_crashes hypercompetitivehttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:c13ce1016f9b/As Germany Welcomes Migrants, Sexual Attacks in Cologne Point to a New Reality - The New York Times2016-01-15T22:42:39+00:00
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/15/world/europe/as-germany-welcomes-migrantssexual-attacks-in-cologne-point-to-a-new-reality.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
jerrykingGermany migrants refugees preparation anticipating policing asylum miscalculations outdated assumptions forward_looking Cologne sexual_assaulthttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:8ecc5095d857/Emergency planning: Flood warning — new data help predict risk2015-09-10T03:56:56+00:00
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/61814162-50fb-11e5-b029-b9d50a74fd14.html
jerrykingfloods massive_data_sets history natural_calamities data data_driven emergencies anticipating preparation extreme_weather_events historical_data flood-risk_maps IBM modelling supercomputers warning_signshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:9b219db5fe2d/Flooding woes - Stabroek News2015-06-07T22:09:23+00:00
http://www.stabroeknews.com/2015/opinion/editorial/06/07/flooding-woes/
jerrykingfloods Guyana infrastructure anticipating preparation contingency_planninghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:ecf34902d6f7/Cisco’s CEO on Staying Ahead of Technology Shifts - HBR2015-05-04T15:20:11+00:00
https://hbr.org/2015/05/ciscos-ceo-on-staying-ahead-of-technology-shifts
jerrykingHBR Cisco anticipating ksfs transitions market_intelligence John_Chambers IBM layoffs CEOs market_windows disruption customer_relationships sales_calls CIOs CTOs listening indicatorshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:fcb901b59806/Nine habits of lousy decision makers - The Globe and Mail2015-02-28T14:37:27+00:00
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/careers/management/nine-habits-of-lousy-decision-makers/article21230744/
jerrykingHarvey_Schachter decision_making habits Communicating_&_Connecting anticipatinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:200b7307f661/Don’t blame the flu for ER congestion - The Globe and Mail2015-01-06T13:59:20+00:00
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/dont-blame-the-flu-for-er-congestion/article22309794/
jerryking>Christmas<< to New Year’s period.
There is more illness in the winter – not just flu, but gastroenteritis, colds and other pathogens spread by coughing and sneezing in close quarters....The larger issue is that our health system does nothing to anticipate and adjust to these problems. On the contrary, it is irresponsibly >>inflexible<<.
During the holiday season, retail outlets extend their hours, add additional staff, stock more supplies, and so on. All sensible stuff – Planning 101, if you will – designed to make life easier for the consumer.
Hospitals, and the health system more generally, do the opposite: During the holiday season, they reduce or close a range of services, from hospital beds to primary care clinics, and funnel patients to jam-packed emergency rooms.
The so-called leaders in our health system need to stop >>blaming<< the public for their repeated >>institutional failures<< [i.e. = "organizational failure"] and start planning now for the flu surge that's coming in December 2015.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Congested
André Picard's point about extending the hours of primary-care practices in order to divert people from emergency rooms (Don't Blame Flu For ER Congestion – Jan. 6) is common sense, in times of flu or otherwise.
As a registered nurse in a family practice setting, I perform "telephone triage" through multiple daily calls to my patients. This results in keeping the majority of patients **at home** with expert advice on treating their symptoms (including red flags) and assessing which patients need to be seen urgently.[i.e. = "triage"]
]]>André_Picard flu_outbreaks hospitals emergency_rooms planning influenza home_care healthcare primary-care community_care overcapacity congestion inflexibility overflow adjustments anticipating pathogens institutional_failure common_sense blaming_fingerpointing Christmas demand_spikes organizational_failure in-home triagehttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:b8173f1ae7d6/The key to winning a dogfight? Focus2014-12-16T15:04:34+00:00
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/careers/management/the-key-to-winning-a-dogfight-focus/article22065353/
jerrykingVietnam_War veterans focus lessons_learned U.S._Navy Harvey_Schachter feedback scenario-planning anticipating preparation contingency_planning debriefs post-mortems simplicity priorities beforemath surprises Eisenhower_Matrix what_really_matters plan_ahead market_intelligence off-plan the_single_most_important difficult_situationshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:a301d4922245/Five questions to hone your business strategy - The Globe and Mail2014-09-30T03:37:15+00:00
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/careers/management/five-questions-to-test-your-strategy/article20760736/
jerrykingstrategy business_planning Harvey_Schachter execution effectiveness assumptions anticipating questions biases overconfidence self-delusions skin_in_the_gamehttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:3e9fcca16345/Sometimes luggage gets lost. Here's how to be prepared - The Globe and Mail2014-04-06T19:10:06+00:00
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/travel/travel-news/why-airlines-lose-luggage-and-why-it-may-be-your-fault/article17823143/
jerrykingtravel preparation packing anticipating unexpectedhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:a70470019f39/How to leave your company better off than you found it - The Globe and Mail2014-01-03T20:27:35+00:00
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/careers/leadership-lab/how-to-leave-your-company-better-off-than-you-found-it/article16172699/
jerrykinglegacies leadership RBC Gord_Nixon stewardship leaders CEOs employee_engagement organizational_culture leadership_development relationships anticipating threats thinking_holistically long-term short-term incrementalism nobystanders warning_signs companywidehttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:ac3d17318419/The need for an analytical approach to life2013-11-07T05:59:01+00:00
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/2935980a-3982-11e2-8881-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2jw5PdVCF
jerrykingengineering black_swan warning_signs 9/11 HIV Aids business_schools MBAs attitudes interconnections interdependence mindsets Stanford imagination systems_thinking anticipating probabilities pretense_of_knowledge risk-management thinking_tragically complexity catastrophes shorthand incentives quantified_self multiple_stressors compounded human_errors risks risk-analysis synchronicity cumulative self-protection systematic_approaches sense_of_control engineer's_mindsethttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:914ae18b971a/What fatal flaw led us so deeply into debt?2013-07-29T15:05:41+00:00
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ZPZsc6w7gO8pcr4tY4l2O31Au1ReFu-BFzMd9d_Jkss/edit
jerrykingWilliam_Thorsell books instant_gratification delayed_gratification social_classes debt debt_crisis long-term intuition far-sightedness beforemath anticipating contextual forward_looking foresight aftermath self-regulation sophisticated wisdom seizing_opportunities future_selveshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:f47315cae72b/Kingston flood2013-03-18T02:42:23+00:00
http://www.stabroeknews.com/2013/opinion/editorial/03/17/kingston-flood/
jerrykingGuyana climate_change cities scenario-planning floods anticipating preparation contingency_planning Georgetownhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:3b9510caa379/You Have to Negotiate For Everything in Life, So Get Good at It Now - WSJ.com2012-12-12T18:45:17+00:00
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB885855675541738000.html
jerryking>creative solution<<. "It doesn't hurt to say, 'I hear your problem; I don't know yet how to get there, but let me think about it,' " she says. "You become part of their team trying to solve their problem."
In career-related negotiations, she suggests anticipating concerns and lining up allies before making your pitch. In one case, she relates, an inexperienced associate seeking a new assignment lined up a senior associate to supervise him before making the request. "So he'd already taken care of my concerns," she says. In job-related negotiations, also, you must explain not only why the request is good for you, but for the company, she says.]]>Hal_Lancaster negotiations listening Communicating_&_Connecting anticipating preparation relationships one-time_events empathy win-win solution-finders creative_solutions active_listeninghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:df6d2c2b1fdc/Strategy vs. Implementation2012-11-30T17:21:06+00:00
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8QqaQt_ecJlaUhwdWpnc3NfR2M/edit
jerrykingstrategy execution frameworks implementation Ivey anticipating organizational_change contingency_planning rewards Communicating_&_Connectinghttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:3786bfcbef55/15 Most Likely Asked Questions2012-08-13T15:00:38+00:00
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8QqaQt_ecJldzFqSDI3bXFXZFk/edit
jerrykinginterview_preparation interviews anticipating questionshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:69a58c7676b5/Gaining and Sustaining Competitive Advantage2012-07-28T18:14:55+00:00
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8QqaQt_ecJlQXh6N0ROa3duRnM/edit
jerrykingcompetitive_advantage strategic_thinking market_segmentation KSFs anticipating strategy execution decision_making Michael_Porter Five_Forces_model value_chains experiece_curves differentiation descriptorshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:bab8f77b7cbb/Parting Shot - WSJ.com2012-07-23T13:15:46+00:00
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB969580242289857584.html
jerrykingwarning_signs recessions anticipating overconfidence checklistshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:bee95366bb88/Some Preliminary Thoughts on Action Planning and Implementation2012-07-22T16:51:00+00:00
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1vNlPF-XXG09irONswuxzmDfL0-ZCfIubzEcjRthZnME/edit
jerrykingfirst90days execution implementation listening contingency_planning anticipating influence action_planshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:f8dfc003f2c4/Inevitable Surprises: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence (9781592400270): Peter Schwartz: Books2012-07-20T12:06:57+00:00
http://www.amazon.com/Inevitable-Surprises-Thinking-Ahead-Turbulence/dp/1592400272
jerrykingAmazon contingency_planning books anticipating uncertainty turbulence surprises instabilityhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:bfdbdbe28045/Idaho Turns to Chess as Education Strategy2012-06-25T15:01:15+00:00
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/20/us/20chess.html?pageswanted=print
jerrykingchess anticipating courtesies curriculum students board_games education public_schoolshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:c337fe0e2789/Planning for and Implementing a Product Recall2012-06-11T12:55:19+00:00
http://search.proquest.com/docview/220648496/fulltextPDF/137411674F95CFF1DB8/1?accountid=44262
jerrykingProQuest product_recalls anticipating frameworks crisis adverse_eventshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:9cbb8ff150b7/Road to Nowhere - New York Times2012-06-04T08:04:57+00:00
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/01/opinion/01brooks.html
jerryking>failure of imagination<< [jk: unimaginative]. Market research is a snapshot of the past. With his data-set mentality, Romney has chosen to model himself on a version of Republicanism that is receding into memory. As Walter Mondale was the last gasp of the fading New Deal coalition, Romney has turned himself into the last gasp of the Reagan coalition.
That coalition had its day, but it is shrinking now....The leaders of the Republican coalition know Romney will lose. But some would rather remain in control of a party that loses than lose control of a party that wins. Others haven’t yet suffered the agony of defeat, and so are not yet emotionally ready for the trauma of transformation. Others still simply don’t know which way to turn.
And so the burden of change will be thrust on primary voters over the next few weeks. Romney is a decent man with some good fiscal and economic policies. But in this race, he has run like a manager, not an entrepreneur....]]>David_Brooks Mitt_Romney Campaign_2008 anticipating unintended_consequences imagination Reagan_coalition rational_irrationality mental_models messiness unimaginative GOP failures_of_imaginationhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:9cb1197173de/UNPRECEDENTED VOLATILITY A HALLMARK OF AGRICULTURE’S NEW AGE2012-05-08T01:08:26+00:00
http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/special/dc1111_agriculture.pdf
jerryking>muddle along<<.
• Know your costs – many producers have a good sense of how their top line is performing. But it is just as important to have a good understanding of the cost side of the equation.
• Maintain adequate liquidity and reasonable leverage – in order to mitigate the risks associated with increasing asset prices, it would be prudent for farmers to ensure that they have sufficient liquidity and manageable leverage if they are expanding.
• Use reasonable interest rate assumptions in assessing investment opportunities – even though borrowing costs are unusually low, farmers must be mindful of the fact that this low-rate environment won’t last forever. [i.e. = "never forever"]]]>agriculture uncertainty volatility farming liquidity leverage hedging futures_contracts diversification new_businesses risks risk-management risk-taking OPMA WaudWare interest_rates vision long-term business_planning credit costs anticipating risk-mitigation low-interest cost-consciousness never_forever human_nature business_acumen cunning muddling_through calculated_riskshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:5a80c0282e3d/The 6 Habits of True Strategic Thinkers2012-03-21T12:33:19+00:00
http://www.inc.com/paul-schoemaker/6-Habits-of-Strategic-Thinkers.html?nav=pop
jerryking>Anticipate<<. Hone your “peripheral vision.” Reduce vulnerabilities to rivals who detect and act on ambiguous signals. ... Build wide external networks to help you scan the horizon better
2. Think Critically. >>Critical thinkers<< question everything. To master this skill, you must force yourself to reframe problems to get to the bottom of things, in terms of >>root causes<<. Challenge current beliefs and mindsets [i.e. = challenge "conventional wisdom"], including your own. Uncover >>hypocrisy<<, manipulation, and bias in organizational decisions.
3. >>Interpret<<. >>Ambiguity<< is unsettling. Faced with it, you are tempted to reach for a fast (potentially wrongheaded) solution. A good strategic leader holds steady, **synthesizing information** from many sources before developing a viewpoint. To get good at this, you have to: Seek patterns in multiple sources of data; Question prevailing assumptions and test multiple hypotheses simultaneously.
4. Decide. Many leaders fall prey to “>>analysis paralysis<<.” Develop processes and enforce them, so that you arrive at a “>>good enough<<” position. To do that well, you have to: Carefully frame the decision to get to the crux of the matter, Balance speed, rigor, quality, and agility. Leave perfection to higher powers. Take a stand even with >>incomplete information<< and amid diverse views
5. Align. Consensus is rare. Foster open dialogue, build trust, and engage key stakeholders, especially when views diverge. To pull that off, you need to: **Understand what drives other people's agendas, including what remains hidden**. Bring tough issues to the surface, even when it's uncomfortable [i.e. = "difficult conversations"] Assess >>risk tolerance<< and follow through to build the necessary support
6. Learn. As your company grows, honest >>feedback<< is harder and harder to come by. You have to do what you can to keep it coming.
Encourage and exemplify honest, rigorous debriefs to extract lessons
**Shift course quickly if you realize you're off track**. Celebrate both successes and (well-intentioned) failures [i.e. = "failure-tolerant"] that provide insight.
Do you have what it takes?]]>habits strategic_thinking anticipating critical_thinking networks biases conventional_wisdom decision_making empathy feedback thinking failure lessons_learned leaders interpretation ambiguities root_cause insights paralyze peripheral_vision analysis_paralysis reframing course_correction vulnerabilities good_enough debriefs post-mortems problem_framing discomforts outward_looking assumptions game_changers tips leadership process-orientation incomplete_information optimization wide-framing well-intentioned off_track hidden_agendas risk-tolerance difficult_conversations failure-tolerant hypocrisy information_synthesis information_interpretationhttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:d773aeb8bc05/Taking the Stress out of Stressful Conversations2012-03-12T20:16:09+00:00
http://provost.tufts.edu/celt/files/Taking-the-Stress-Out-of-Stressful-Conversations-by-Weeks.pdf
jerrykingHBR conversations Communicating_&_Connecting tension anticipating preparation stressful self-awareness vulnerabilities weaknesses difficult_conversationshttps://pinboard.in/https://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:2084b1a9656b/DeMaurice Smith Takes On the N.F.L. Owners - NYTimes.com2011-01-23T03:59:09+00:00
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/23/business/23nfl.html?hpw=&pagewanted=all
jerrykingsports NFL labour negotiations lawyers crisis_management turnarounds troubleshooting creating_valuable_content preparation unions enterprise_clients anticipating playbooks event-drivenhttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:4e40cd615fe5/We are stone heads on medicare2010-10-18T09:16:20+00:00
https://secure.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/GIS.Servlets.HTMLTemplate?current_row=27&tf=tgam/columnists/FullColumn.html&cf=tgam/columnists/FullColumn.cfg&configFileLoc=tgam/config&date=&dateOffset=&hub=williamThorsell&title=William_Thorsell&cache_key=williamThorsell&start_row=27&num_rows=1
jerrykingWilliam_Thorsell Medicare Jared_Diamond incrementalism anticipating Canada healthcare creeping_normality complacency selfishness values self-destructive slowly_moving core_values imperceptible_threats societal_collapsehttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:6ad501878b4d/Managing Yourself: How to Save Good Ideas2010-09-24T03:35:30+00:00
http://hbr.org/2010/10/managing-yourself-how-to-save-good-ideas/ar/pr
jerrykinghowto HBR John_Kotter persuasion pitches Managing_Your_Career Communicating_&_Connecting organizational_change life_skills implementation failure human_factor human_frailties large-scale backlash buy-in obstacles ideas resistance anticipating eels well-intentioned common_sensehttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:3dc8462476ff/How to Present New Ideas to a Board of Directors | eHow.com2010-09-05T15:54:58+00:00
http://www.ehow.com/how_6019012_present-new-ideas-board-directors.html
jerryking>anticipating<< possible questions, providing enough information to permit decision-making and responding promptly to concerns can make the difference between acceptance and >>rejection<< of your >>proposal<<.
]]>pitches boards_&_directors_&_governance howto concision ideas anticipating proposals rejectionshttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:41eb494c0300/Avoid Betamax’s fate by anticipating change2010-05-22T03:29:20+00:00
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/your-business/grow/mia-wedgbury/avoid-betamaxs-fate-by-anticipating-change/article1575415/
jerryking>mistake<<. Take a cue from industry leaders that have tried new ideas and failed: Ford had the Edsel, Sony bet on the Betamax, and of course we will never forget >>New Coke<<.[i.e. = "product failures"]
One pair of entrepreneurs I know are keen proponents of this philosophy. Chetan Mathur and Clara Angotti are not afraid to make radical changes in light of industry developments. Their approach to managing a tax advisory firm Brendan Moore & Associates is a good example of seeing opportunity where others see a threat. Many in their industry thought that the introduction of HST in Ontario and B.C. would eat into the margins, but Mr. Mathur and Ms. Angotti saw an opportunity. They changed their service offering and challenged their staff to be experts on the subject, and their business went on to have its best year ever.
Being bold, creative, and in-tune with change will ensure that your products are relevant, your staff is engaged, and your customers stay happy and loyal. And ensuring you not only embrace the change, but communicate it to your customers and prospects is critical to driving growth.]]>small_business public_relations anticipating Betamax rising_demand SMEs boldness shifting_tastes technological_change daring Coca-Cola mistakes New_Coke product_failureshttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:b66d171eda22/Business diary: Claudi Santiago2010-05-13T01:21:58+00:00
http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=2030781921&sid=4&Fmt=3&clientId=11263&RQT=309&VName=PQD
jerrykingProQuest GE executive_management CEOs profile oil_industry anticipating forward_lookinghttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:f5ae4ec31524/What Any Goldman Settlement Might Entail - DealBook/White Collar Watch Blog - NYTimes.com2010-05-07T13:09:20+00:00
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/06/what-any-goldman-settlement-might-entail/?ref=business
jerrykingGoldman_Sachs SEC legal legal_strategies anticipating books Department_of_Justice think_threes white-collar white-collar_crime financial_penalties corruption piggybackinghttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:2953ce88b4c6/Dear Graduate...2009-11-01T15:31:01+00:00
http://www.businessweek.com/stories/2006-06-18/dear-graduate-dot-dot-dot
jerrykinghiring recruiting Managing_Your_Career advice Jack_Welch strategic_thinking anticipating new_graduates chutzpah movingonup overdeliver Pablo_Picasso individual_initiative generating_strategic_options independent_viewpoints thinking_big game_changers questionshttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:46ebe3598d78/The "Warning" Czar?2009-10-20T02:08:48+00:00
http://www.adamsmithesq.com/archives/2009/09/the.html
jerryking>analysts<< whose job is to monitor the rest of the intelligence community, challenging their analyses and assumptions. The goal is to to avoid >>surprise<<. One of Knight's core insights is the difference between what he calls the "simple likelihood-of-the-event versus impact-of-the-event calculation." Knight thinks you can >>systematize<< this type of analysis by being understand and being beware of the cognitive >>biases<< of experts; by >>training<<; and by creating an institutional >>check<<--a warning staff or Red Team. Beware analytical >>frameworks<<--know their limitations.[i.e. = recognize when you're on the cusp of a "deteriorating system"]
]]>Bruce_MacEwen strategic_thinking security_&_intelligence contrarians risk-management counterintuitive red_teams anticipating biases surprises warning_signs devil’s_advocates frequency_and_severity intelligence_analysts systematic_approaches early_warnings deteriorating_systems DNI checks_and_balances frameworks traininghttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:784cbaf731c9/Schools Prepare for Next Downturn - WSJ.com2009-08-20T14:06:26+00:00
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125072468343344581.html
jerrykingcurriculum economic_downturn MBAs business_schools uncertainty anticipatinghttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:cc06de0fbbd0/Netflix Boss Plots Life After the DVD - WSJ.com2009-06-25T16:13:33+00:00
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124570665631638633.html?mg=com-wsj
jerrykingNetflix business_models dvds Reed_Hastings anticipatinghttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:89600112bc81/Resilience vs. Anticipation: The West is resilient and can roll with the shocks. The East copes through anticipation, the static planning that assumes perfect foresight. - Reason Magazine2009-05-09T07:32:28+00:00
http://www.reason.com/news/show/34482.html
jerrykingresilience strategy anticipating business_planning forward_looking foresight exogenous_shockshttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:a4f73ec390e8/Succession Planning Is Over-Rated2009-04-14T17:02:40+00:00
http://www.bmacewen.com/blog/archives/2007/11/succession_planning_is_ov.html
jerrykingsuccession talent_management leadership law_firms anticipating CEOs Bruce_MacEwen status_quo experience change overrated what_really_matters industry_expertisehttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:5ba14730e4d2/Anticipating Corporate Crises - WSJ.com2009-04-14T16:55:21+00:00
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122202740338360765.html?mod=article-outset-box&mg=com-wsj
jerryking>fail to ask<<
enough **tough questions** or adequately scrutinize management, governance
specialists say.
]]>Joann_S._Lublin anticipating boards_&_directors_&_governance risk-management risk-assessment scenario-planning contingency_planning forward_looking crisis hard_questions preparation unprepared RoMTA failing_to_askhttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:0b05fbe19509/Robert Gates - Defense Secretary - International Relations - Politics - Iraq - Iran - New York Times2009-04-14T16:32:01+00:00
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/10/magazine/10gates-t.html?pagewanted=all
jerrykingsecurity_&_intelligence profile meetings Robert_Gates anticipating Fred_Kaplan forward_looking managing_up action-oriented APNSA SecDef future_bias policymaking strategic_thinking role-playing anticipatory_strategic_volleyinghttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:125ea4ceb109/Luck Isn't Lucky At All - Brian Babcock2009-04-01T01:35:05+00:00
http://www.brianbabcock.com/make-your-own-good-fortune.shtml
jerrykingBrian_Babcock introspection self-analysis Managing_Your_Career anticipating luck self-awareness self-assessment chance contingency self-appraisalhttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:b30e71929361/How to back the Right Technology: When trying to decide where to place their bets, companies often make three fundamental mistakes2009-02-19T18:12:55+00:00
http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB122911114649702421
jerrykingtechnology decision_making howto mistakes patterns anticipating batteries buyer_choice_rejection forward_looking impermanence messiness platforms portfolios shifting_tastes taxonomy technological_change uncertainty unpredictability design small_bets layer_mastery level_of_analysis thinking_in_layers lithium electric_cars improvement_rateshttps://pinboard.in/u:jerryking/b:4e84bb53a61e/