Pinboard (guardiantech)

Satya Nadella explains the "mobile" in "mobile first, cloud first" >> Windows IT Pro

guardiantech — 2014-09-17T21:46:38+00:00

Paul Thurrott:

In an appearance at an annual luncheon at the Seattle Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce — which was nicely transcribed by Geekwire's Todd Bishop, thank you very much — Mr. Nadella was asked what he was doing to improve Windows Phone's market share, which is in the very low single digits and shows no signs of improving anytime soon. Nadella didn't talk about "making the market" for Windows Phone. He didn't explain that many new hardware partners have signed on with Windows Phone thanks to "zero dollar" licensing in 2014, and that their devices would improve matters. He didn't vaguely speak of future synergies between Windows Phone and "big" Windows. Instead, he offered up a surprising response. He said that Windows Phone's market share doesn't matter.

How long do Android phones last? >> Benedict Evans

guardiantech — 2014-08-14T16:49:05+00:00

Modelling from the "daily activations" and the new "monthly active users" figures given out by Google (and so only applicable for "Google Android" outside China):

These are (to repeat) approximate numbers, but it seems clear that Android phones remain in use for well below the 24m average for the market, and during the peak growth period the replacement rate was closer to one year. The chart [below in the original post] compares what a 24m replacement cycle would have looked like compared to Google's own numbers. [Active users would have been significantly higher at each data point on the graph shown at I/O.] The cycle clearly seems to be lengthening, but it's not clear yet how much. Meanwhile, we don't have comparable data for iPhones, but the fact that around a third of the active base is on the iPhone 4 or 4S does rather speak for itself: if anything the iPhone is on longer than 24 months, especially if you take 2nd hand into account (though quite a lot of that second-hand seems to be exported to emerging markets, complicating the picture). This has some interesting ecosystem implications. It looks like the Android ecosystem has to sell significantly more phones than Apple to get the same number of active users. This is probably good for the OEMs (presuming the replacements are not people switching away from Android to iPhone), but less good for Google. Ironically, Apple might prefer it to be the other way around as well - it would probably prefer you buy a new phone every year. But this makes comparing market share problematic - it looks like a given number of iPhone unit sales might mean more customers than the same number of Android unit sales.

So sales market share might not directly reflect installed base. Not a surprise.

The mobile OS paradigm >> Learning by Shipping

guardiantech — 2014-08-13T15:52:03+00:00

Steve Sinofsky (formerly at Microsoft, where he oversaw Windows 8):

During the transition from mini to PC, the low price and low performance created a price/performance gap that the minis thought they would exploit. Yet the scale volume, architectural openness, and rapid improvement in multi-vendor tools (and more) contributed to a rapid acceleration that could not compare. During the transition from character-based to GUI-based PCs many focused on the expense of extra peripherals such as graphics cards and mice, requirement for more memory and MIPs, not to mention the performance implications of the new interface in terms of training and productivity. Yet, Moore’s law, far more robust peripheral support (printers and drivers), and ability to draw on multi-app scenarios (clipboard and more) transformed computing in ways character-based could not. The same could be said about the transition to internetworking with browsers. The point is that the ancillary benefits of these architectural transitions are often overlooked while the dialog primarily focuses on the immediate and visible changes in the platform and experience… The transition to the mobile OS platforms is following this same pattern. For all the debates about touch versus keyboard, screen-size, vertical integration, or full-screen apps, there are fundamental shifts in the underlying implementation of the operating system that are here to stay and have transformed computing.

May 2010: Halloween XII: The Reckoning >> Jake Hamby

guardiantech — 2014-08-12T16:43:33+00:00

This dates from May 2010. Hamby previously worked for Danger - the phone company that was bought by Microsoft, where he had a terrible experience. Having left it (and joined Google's Android team), he looked back:

it's in the mobile space where Microsoft has most completely fallen down. One thing I learned about myself from the whole Kin ordeal was that I truly have a great deal of identification with the stuff that I'm working on. If I don't think there's a purpose and a meaning behind the code I'm writing, then I become very upset. Now a company like Google would tend to think that being passionate about making the best possible product is probably a good trait to have in a software engineer, but it's a genuine disadvantage at a company like Microsoft, where all is politics, and the middle management is utterly adrift. Let me just say that I think that Steve Ballmer is a clown and a buffoon, and he has no idea just how utterly pointless the whole "Windows Phone 7" exercise is. Good luck with that, dude, but I don't see it having any more of a chance than Kin did (i.e. slim to none). The rest of the mobile industry has already routed around your flavor of brain damage, and I hate to break it to you, but I'm pretty sure that your remaining handset and carrier partners are pretty much just humoring you at this point.

His remarks about astroturfing are eye-opening too.

The real meaning of the Fire Phone >> Mobile Opportunity

guardiantech — 2014-07-05T20:02:22+00:00

Michael Mace:

For online retailers, the single most frustrating thing about mobile technology, especially smartphones, is that it people using it don’t buy a lot of stuff. They’ll browse in your web store and use your shopping app, but when it comes time to buy they often don’t purchase. The industry rule of thumb is that a good commerce site on a personal computer will convert about 3% of shoppers to buyers (in other words, for every 100 online shoppers you make three sales). The conversion rate for smartphones is a third of that, about 1%. In an industry that would kill to improve conversion by a tenth of a point, that drop from 3% to 1% is horrifying. Many commerce companies have spent years trying to fix it, and through incredible effort and careful experimentation it is indeed possible to increase the mobile conversion rate. In my day job at UserTesting that’s one of the things I help companies do. But it’s a slow process of incremental fixes, and in the meantime mobile web use is growing explosively. Here’s the nightmare scenario for an online retailer: —What if the next generation of internet users moves to smartphones and wearables faster than we can figure out how to fix mobile shopping? —What if, as people move to mobile, the conversion rate for our whole business drops from 3% to 1%?

He makes an excellent case - that the sales of the Fire Phone really don't matter. It's what the sales on the Fire Phone reveal that matters.

Aviate: the intelligent homescreen that simplifies your phone. >> Aviate.com

guardiantech — 2014-06-09T14:49:27+00:00

Intelligent throughout your day. Aviate intelligently surfaces information at the moment it's useful.

Smart: the idea being that it tells you about the weather in the morning, transport later in the day, meetings when they're relevant, meals later, and so on. For Android phones only (obviously). But you probably won't guess who it's from. (Scroll to the bottom of its page to find out.)

Mobile broadband uptake continues to grow at double-digit rates >> ITU

guardiantech — 2014-05-24T21:55:37+00:00

Globally, mobile-broadband penetration will reach 32% by end 2014 – almost double the penetration rate just three years earlier (2011) and four times as high as five years earlier (2009). In developed countries, mobile-broadband penetration will reach 84%, a level four times as high as in developing countries (21%) . Mobile broadband remains the fastest growing market segment, with continuous double-digit growth rates in 2014. Mobile broadband is growing fastest in developing countries, where 2013/2014 growth rates are expected to be twice as high as in developed countries (26% compared with 11.5%). By end 2014, the number of mobile-broadband subscriptions will reach 2.3 billion globally, almost 5 times as many as just six years earlier (in 2008).

PDF, with fascinating detail. In 2005 there were 1bn total internet users worldwide; by the end of this year it will be 3bn total.

The uncomfortable truth at the heart of mobile gaming >> Mobile Opportunity:

guardiantech — 2014-05-09T22:22:09+00:00

Michael Mace on how mobile (and other) games rely on "whales" who spend huge amounts of money while most people spend nothing:

I think the code of conduct is a very good idea; without it, we could easily end up with government regulation of free-to-play gaming, and I can’t imagine how that could be effective without destroying the category altogether. It would also be a very good idea to develop other new revenue streams to support mobile gaming. That’s why I’m always interested when someone like Facebook claims they can fix mobile advertising. You may not love the idea of mobile games becoming like commercial television, but I think we’d all be a lot more comfortable pushing an occasional ad at every user rather than trying to extract $1,000 from 0.5% of them.

Rethinking what we mean by 'mobile web' >> Daring Fireball:

guardiantech — 2014-04-08T21:03:55+00:00

John Gruber responds to Chris Dixon's concern about the loss of the "mobile web":

let native apps be good at what they’re good at, too. Like water flowing downhill, users gravitate to the best experiences. Saying that we’re worse off for the popularity of native mobile apps is like saying water should run uphill.
The single biggest slice in Flurry’s statistics is “gaming”, at 32%. Does anyone really think that mobile games would be better off written to run in web browser tabs? Lamenting today the falling share of time people spend in web browsers at the expense of mobile apps is no different from those who a decade ago lamented the falling share of time spent reading paper newspapers and magazines at the expense of websites.

Mobile’s rapid evolution is far from over: comScore - content - Mobile Marketer

guardiantech — 2014-04-07T19:44:57+00:00

Consumer behavior is significantly shifting from traditional to digital media, with 2013 marking the first time mobile usage surpassed desktop, according to a new report from comScore.
The report, "US. Digital Future in Focus 2014," reveals that the number of United States smartphone users increased 24% last year for a total of 156m owners, a healthy growth rate considering the maturity of the market. Tablets grew 57% in the past year to 82m owners.
“The rapid evolution in mobile usage will only expand," said Adam Lella, a marketing insights analyst at comScore, Chicago, Illinois.

Chart: how mobile are social networks? >> Statista

guardiantech — 2014-04-07T13:57:27+00:00

As in, how much of their activity comes from mobile users? See if you can order this (alphabetical) list in order of most mobile use: Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Twitter, Tumblr. Then see.

Samsung has over 55% of North American Android web traffic >> Chitika Online Advertising Network

guardiantech — 2014-03-20T22:08:14+00:00

Looking at the Web traffic from all North American users of both operating systems, iOS users generate 65% of the total, and Android users the remaining 35%. Put another way, 85% more aggregate Web traffic is driven by iOS devices as compared to Android devices in North America. These figures are similar to what we observed in an identically framed study back in late 2012, with two percentage points in share moving from iOS to Android over that time frame.

No other Android manufacturer has more than single-digit share of web browsing there.

Bitcoin and mobile payments: don't get your hopes up >> CITEworld

guardiantech — 2014-03-14T17:53:33+00:00

So far, it's far less convenient than a credit card. Before I get accused of being the guy who said the Internet would never amount to anything because you couldn't take your laptop to the beach -- yes, the ecosystem will mature. As the exchanges get bigger, massive thefts like the ones recently experienced probably won't happen as often.

That "probably" in the last sentence isn't helping, to be honest.

Chart: smartphone shoppers rarely close the deal >> Statista

guardiantech — 2014-03-10T06:59:08+00:00

According to research published by Monetate, a provider of e-commerce solutions, tablets and smartphones accounted for 27% of e-commerce website traffic in Q4 2013, up from 18% in Q4 2012.
Tablets account for more traffic than smartphones do, and the conversion rate on tablets is much higher than it is on smartphones. The data suggests that tablet users actually make purchases on their device while smartphone users browse products and check prices on the go but turn to bigger devices or actual brick-and-mortar stores to make the purchase.

Differences between platforms too.

Mobile apps have overtaken ... >> Ian Maude

guardiantech — 2014-02-27T17:29:12+00:00

Maude is a consultant on digital media at Enders Analysis:

Mobile apps have overtaken PC internet usage in US - in total, mobile devices now account for 55% of time spent online.

There's a graph to accompany it; desktop use has stayed roughly static, but mobile apps have ramped like made, roughly doubling since November 2012. (Mobile browsing is gradually rising, but much smaller.) Tablets join the fray in February 2013.

Messaging: mobile's killer app >> stratēchery

guardiantech — 2014-02-18T20:11:46+00:00

Ben Thompson points to the evolution of messaging (and the intervention of the desktop, and then examines LINE - which many in the west won't have heard of or used:

This [illustration] is a sticker set from Häagen-Dazs; they have paid LINE tens of thousands of dollars (varies by market) to make this set available for free. To get the stickers, users must follow the official Häagen-Dazs account.
Voilà, Häagen-Dazs now has a direct communications channel to millions of users.
Perhaps this summer, when it’s particularly hot, Häagen-Dazs will send out a coupon to all those users for a discounted cup of ice cream. Many of those users will be out-and-about, likely in the vicinity of a Häagen-Dazs retail shop (they’re all over the place in Asia). And just like that customers have been moved to action.

He also has an excellent explanation for why companies love to store credit card details, despite all the hacks.

This data explains Nintendo’s mobile strategy >> CONSULGAMER

guardiantech — 2014-02-06T18:31:51+00:00

The biggest challenge for Nintendo to port games to mobile is that consumers aren’t buying games on mobile devices. In 2013, only 7% of revenue for mobile games came from non-free games. The obvious, but still staggering, size of this story is that free to play monetization tools bring in 93% of all spending on mobile games.
Only 7% of all of the revenue made in mobile games is earned by games that do not support in-app purchases. (Source: AppAnnie)
There are currently no titles in Nintendo’s back-catalog of games that are designed from the ground up for free to play. The company has never designed games with a range of free to play monetization methods involved. Without planning from the start when to insert time gates, probability gates, grind gates, or other monetization methods, Nintendo’s games would lag other game makers in a free to play environment.

Online shopping digital analytics benchmark >> IBM

guardiantech — 2013-12-26T20:35:09+00:00

Mobile traffic was up 28.3% year-on-year in the US, and mobile sales were 29% of all purchases - up 40% on 2012:

• Smartphones browse, tablets buy: Smartphones drove 28.5% of all online traffic compared to tablets at 18.1%, making it the browsing device of choice. When it comes to making the sale, tablets drove 19.4% of all online sales, more than twice that of smartphones, which accounted for 9.3%. Tablet users also averaged $95.61 per order, versus smartphone users, who averaged $85.11 per order.
• iOS vs. Android: As a percentage of total online sales, iOS was more than five times higher than Android, driving 23% vs. 4.6% for Android. On average, iOS users spent $93.94 per order, nearly twice that of Android users, who spent $48.10 per order. iOS also led as a component of overall traffic with 32.6% vs. 14.8% for Android.
• The Social Influence - Facebook vs. Pinterest: Shoppers referred from Facebook averaged $72.01 per order, versus Pinterest referrals, which drove $86.83 per order. However, Facebook referrals converted sales at nearly four times the rate of Pinterest referrals, perhaps indicating stronger confidence in network recommendations.

At this rate mobile will be the majority next year.

Has Microsoft gone nuts? >> Mobile Opportunity

guardiantech — 2013-12-17T11:16:30+00:00

Michael Mace on the rumours floating out of Redmond about free Windows Phone licences and others:

I think most PC users will stick with the traditional Windows interface, most Windows developers will follow them, and most people who want tablets will get iPad or Android or Kindle.
So the challenge for Microsoft’s new CEO is the same one Steve Ballmer has tried and failed to answer for years: Demand for Windows is declining because the platform hasn’t done anything new for a decade, while Microsoft doesn’t control the fast-growing segments in tablets and smartphones. Microsoft tried to use Windows 8 to take over tablets. That failed. What do you do now?

The speed of mobile adoption >> jdd.io

guardiantech — 2013-12-04T07:18:44+00:00

Duncan Davidson:

This month so far, the stats for jdd.io show 38% Mac, 31% iPhone, 16% iPad, 9% Windows, 3% Android, and it tapers from there.
That’s half phone and tablet devices with a huge bias towards iOS. Of course, these stats reflect the habits of people that read my blog or follow me on Twitter. If I do say so myself, it’s a pretty leading-edge crowd. But what about a more normal site, such as the Luma Labs website where Greg and I sell camera straps? That should be a bit more reflective of general trends.
The answer: 38% Mac, 38% Windows, 10% iPhone, 9% iPad, 4% Android, and then down from there. In other words, almost a quarter of our e-commerce traffic comes from phones and tablets. Wow.

(Those five categories he cites add up to 99%.)

The second operating system hiding in every mobile phone >> OS News

guardiantech — 2013-11-14T14:00:45+00:00

Thom Holwerda:

This operating system is stored in firmware, and runs on the baseband processor. As far as I know, this baseband RTOS is always entirely proprietary. For instance, the RTOS inside Qualcomm baseband processors (in this specific case, the MSM6280) is called AMSS, built upon their own proprietary REX kernel, and is made up of 69 concurrent tasks, handling everything from USB to GPS. It runs on an ARMv5 processor.
The problem here is clear: these baseband processors and the proprietary, closed software they run are poorly understood, as there's no proper peer review. This is actually kind of weird, considering just how important these little bits of software are to the functioning of a modern communication device. You may think these baseband RTOS' [real time operating systems] are safe and secure, but that's not exactly the case. You may have the most secure mobile operating system in the world, but you're still running a second operating system that is poorly understood, poorly documented, proprietary, and all you have to go on are Qualcomm's Infineon's, and others' blue eyes.

What's the betting that the NSA and GCHQ are very, very familiar with these RTOSs - and their bugs?

Akamai: half of all internet connections now at 4Mbps+, Safari remains most used mobile browser >> TechCrunch

guardiantech — 2013-10-16T16:24:10+00:00

Akamai notes that when it looks at access from mobile devices over cellular networks, Android Webkit is just edging out Mobile Safari, with other browsers trailing quite a ways behind. Webkit, it notes, accounted for 38% of requests, while Safari 34%. When usage was tracked across cellular and other networks (for example, broadband via WiFi), Safari shot into the lead, with 54% of all requests and Android Webkit at 27%+. This could partly be attributed to iPad usage; perhaps also just to the fact that while iOS owners may be proportionally smaller than Android device owners, when you take into account all kinds of usage, they are simply just using their devices more.

Odd.

No bids in 700 MHz auction, Paulwell disappointed >> JamaicaObserver.com

guardiantech — 2013-10-14T12:57:58+00:00

Despite a robust showing of interest from a number of entities, including the 24 persons from 10 countries, including India, China, Ghana, Japan, Canada, Taiwan, the Russian Federation and the United States who attended a public forum for interested parties via the internet, the auction ended with no bids submitted before the 2:00 pm deadline.
"We view this as a minor setback," [said Phillip Paulwell, Jamaica's minister for science, technology, energy and mining].

Broadband penetration in Jamaica is 8%. Paulwell says he's set his sights on 100%.

How many smartphone users will there be in the US? >> asymco

guardiantech — 2013-10-08T21:32:18+00:00

Horace Dediu continues from yesterday:

I expect smartphones will be used by nearly all [US residents over 13] by end of 2020.
That means about 270m users. It also means that about 125m more than are using smartphones today. Note also that a significant number of those under 13 will also use smartphones and that the metric is “primary phone” and insofar as there are more than one phone for some users they are a multiplicative factor. Finally this measure does not account for company assigned devices.

Ballmer sees Microsoft's 'almost no share' in mobile as an opportunity, regrets mistakes >> The Verge

guardiantech — 2013-09-23T21:06:04+00:00

Speaking at Microsoft's financial analysts meeting [on 19 September], CEO Steve Ballmer was refreshingly realistic about the company's struggles in smartphones and tablets. "Mobile devices. We have almost no share," he admitted on stage, before noting he didn't know whether to be enthusiastic over his admission or uncomfortably tense. "But I'm an optimistic guy, any time we have low market share sounds like upside opportunity to me." That upside opportunity is the key reason Microsoft moved to secure Nokia's phone business.
"The Nokia deal is a lot of things," said Ballmer. "One of the things it is, is a way to make sure we can capture the gross margin upside because we're making most of the investment today, that we need to make even owning Nokia." It's clear Microsoft wants to take some of the smartphone profits away from giants like Apple and Samsung, and Nokia is a key part of that plan.

It's fascinating how Google has destroyed Microsoft's business rationale in mobile by making Android free, and in effect forced it to buy Nokia. Next question: is Google making money from mobile?

Google releases a new version of Google Wallet, dumps NFC requirement >> Ars Technica

guardiantech — 2013-09-17T20:54:40+00:00

[Google] Wallet will also be supporting loyalty cards, which will require you to scan the phone screen with a barcode scanner at checkout. A small handful of companies will integrate with the wallet app and display things like rewards points balances in the Wallet app itself. The Wallet blog post also touts integration with Google Offers, which has been around for a while, and Google is offering 100% purchase protection against any fraudulent activity.
Since Wallet no longer requires NFC, there's no reason for it to be Android-only anymore. We wouldn't be surprised to see an iOS app (assuming Apple allows it) sometime soon. Almost a year ago, Google set up an invitation page for a version of Google Wallet that would work on Android, iOS, and "other" devices, but nothing ever came of the project.

Intriguing that this would happen just as Apple rolls out AirDrop (Bluetooth-range data links) and Google buys NFC replacement Bump.

Former Windows chief: Mobile will quickly become the new normal >> CITEworld

guardiantech — 2013-09-17T17:20:54+00:00

"The positive term is 'paradigm shift,'" said [former Windows chief Steve] Sinofsky, who was speaking on a panel with Box engineering chief (and Google Docs inventor) Sam Schillace at the Boxworks conference this afternoon. "One day everybody's mailing around PowerPoint presentations and carrying a five-pound laptop....The next day it's 'I couldn't read them on my phone so they don't exist.' That's what's driving this huge change. Companies are much more in tune with the resources outside them. They have the ability to work with vendors as though they were employees in the same organization."

Very big changes afoot. (Thanks #slimbowski for the link.)

Apple’s new iPhone deals a blow to NFC >> WSJ Digits blog

guardiantech — 2013-09-15T21:15:14+00:00

With 40% of the US smartphone market, Apple commands a large lead over other handset makers, according to Nielsen data. Its mobile operating system and app store are influential among application developers.
“It’s definitely troublesome for any developer looking to support NFC that it is not in the iPhone,” said Jordan McKee, an analyst with researcher Yankee Group. “It’s not going to reach massive scale without Apple adopting NFC.”
Though nearly every other major smartphone maker has models with NFC capability, a recent Yankee Group survey found that just 18% of US consumers have such handsets, said McKee.
NFC has been slow to catch on in part because it isn’t any easier than a credit-card swipe, and because not enough stores accept the technology. According to Gartner analyst Mark Hung, fewer than 100,000 NFC-enabled readers are in use in the US, which compares with near-ubiquity for traditional credit-card readers.
Meanwhile, early NFC adopters like BlackBerry and Nokia have seen their handset sales decline. An effort by Google to create a digital wallet linked to NFC chips in some Sprint phones has slowed as other carriers favour their own NFC joint venture called Isis, which is only available in two US cities.
In a year's time, the US might see more commerce via fingerprint and Bluetooth than NFC. (That 18% for NFC-enabled handsets seems low.)

Third to a billion >> asymco

guardiantech — 2013-09-08T20:55:10+00:00

Horace Dediu:

Android is the third platform to reach a billion users (Although activations are not users, I’m assuming that usage is not far behind and the cumulative sales figures I gather are roughly comparable). The first was Windows and the second was Facebook. Apple sold around 650m to 700m iOS and is expected to be the fourth to a billion sometime next year. (Separately, iTunes reports 575m account holders.)

If we define the Race To a Billion to be bounded by a time limit of 10 years, then Windows does not qualify and Android is actually second. The race is shown in the following graphs (the one on the left is logarithmic scaled, the one to the right includes only a few contenders for illustrative reasons).

On the future of iOS and Android >> steve cheney

guardiantech — 2013-08-28T21:45:18+00:00

Among other things:

NFC is dead—that’s not the interesting part though, it’s how Apple was able to replicate NFC functionality with Bluetooth 4.0 and WiFi (they’re also using GPS like Bump did for authentication) and how they standardized all of this into iBeacon in iOS7. While supporting it all backward compatibly to iPhone 4S. A two year old phone upgraded with iOS7 will just work… Bluetooth has arrived – it’s been around forever, but up to now it’s been crappy. Bluetooth LE (also called Bluetooth Smart) changes everything. Connections, pairing, device management etc will finally work 100% of the time, and Bluetooth will be a completely bulletproof, consumer ready, industry leading technology.

What Microsoft and Google's YouTube row says about the future of web development >> ZDNet

guardiantech — 2013-08-28T17:14:05+00:00

Simon Bisson digs deep into that Google/Windows Phone/YouTube row:

Drilling down into the code of the header that didn't render on Windows Phone, it's clear just why it didn't work. Much of the header layout requires WebKit-specific CSS; and that's CSS that won't display in other browsers. In fact if you drill down into any Google mobile app, there's plenty of WebKit specific code all the way through the application.
Are the features that Google wants Microsoft to put into its browser those WebKit vendor prefixes? It's certainly relying on them in many of its web properties – and that would explain why it wants changes to Internet Explorer, allowing it to simplify the code in its JavaScript libraries and developer kits.
It's tempting to build apps that rely on the latest features, and if they'll run on most of the devices out there, well, the rest will catch up someday. But that's a rationale that assumes that the W3C will standardise on those experimental features, and that the resulting CSS and HTML markup will end up in new editions of current browsers quickly.

His conclusion: "Google appears to be using user agent sniffing to deliver different experiences to different browsers — a poor approach to modern web design".

There's a $20bn pot of gold at the end of the mobile advertising rainbow >> comScore

guardiantech — 2013-08-26T19:10:29+00:00

Total US internet usage is up – way up – over the past three years. According to comScore Media Metrix® Multi-Platform, time spent on desktop computers, smartphones and tablets reached 958bn total minutes in May 2013, representing a gaudy 93% increase from May 2010.
While desktop web usage is still increasing, and tablet now accounts for a meaningful share, we can see that smartphone usage is the biggest driver of growth.

Desktop/laptop time up 14%; smartphone used quintupled; tablet time from zero to more than one-fifth of the 2013 desktop/laptop time (and equivalent to a quarter of the 2010 figure for desktop/laptop time).

Amazon initiates TOTAL MOBILE DOMINANCE cloud strategy >> The Register

guardiantech — 2013-08-13T20:53:23+00:00

Upgrades to the Amazon Web Services cloud's Simple Notification Service (SNS) were announced on Tuesday and see Amazon give developers a method for sending push notifications to a variety of mobile devices through one, unified API. This tightens competition with Microsoft, which already had a similar service in place, and puts both companies ahead of Google's cloud, which is for now Android-only.

LG puts buttons on back of G2 smartphone >> BBC News

guardiantech — 2013-08-07T20:47:25+00:00

The new device features a 5.2in (13.2cm) screen and is powered by Android.
Its rear keys can be used to adjust its volume or - if pressed for a longer time - to activate the device's camera and note-taking software.
LG suggests that using a back-button to take a self-portrait with the front camera also makes it easier to take a steady shot.
"Moving the main buttons to the back of the phone gave users more control since this place was where individuals' index fingers are naturally located," it said.
"Researchers also found that moving the buttons also resulted in fewer dropped phones when adjusting the volume while talking."

Novel, and rather clever, idea.

Understanding Google >> stratēchery

guardiantech — 2013-07-29T11:35:40+00:00

Ben Thompson:

For a horizontal player [such as Google], the focus in a “multi-screen world” needs to be on all verticals, not just one.
Chrome is the focus at Google; Android is just an afterthought. For Google, it is Chrome that fits this focus on a multi-screen world. Chrome shouldn’t be thought of as a web browser; rather, it’s an optimized bi-directional delivery vehicle: the best experience with Google services for users, and maximum user data for Google. And it runs everywhere.3 This is why Google has been investing millions of dollars in building the Chrome brand for some time now.
Android, on the other hand, enables several of those verticals, and keeps Apple honest in phones especially; however, by virtue of the hardware world it lives in, it’s not the best vehicle for reaching all users, and Google is fine with that.
Google isn't that interested in phones anymore. The only notable thing about Android phones at yesterday’s announcement was their absence.

Ironic if Google's really next big thing is its browser - such a 90s concept. But it does look that way.

ROLL IT: A Chrome Experiment >> Google

guardiantech — 2013-07-24T06:57:03+00:00

If you have a desktop and a smartphone to hand, here's where the rest of your day went. Works on "modern browsers": does this include Internet Explorer on Windows Phone?

How to give your lost phone a much better chance of being returned >> MediaBizTech

guardiantech — 2013-07-23T16:15:38+00:00

Robert Freeman:

It was an iPhone 4S, lying on the edge of a seat . There wasn’t anyone else in that part of the carriage. It was in flight mode, so the ‘Find my iPhone’ function would have been inoperable.
I don’t have an iPhone, but I’m prepared to bet there are lost property rooms packed with dozens of lost iPhones/Pads all over the world, particularly in airports and train stations.
They are unable to be reunited with their owners because Apple’s security features make it impossible and the owners themselves haven’t planned for their possible loss.
Here are the issues:
The lockscreen
This is the first hurdle most people will fall at. Unless you know the code, you can’t get into the contacts to start ringing obvious numbers, eg. Home, or Mum/Dad.
The simplest thing here is to take a photo of your contact details and use this as your lockscreen wallpaper. It’s in the Settings menu.

Devastatingly simple idea. (If you lose your phone, you'd want Freeman to find it.) Obviously, don't use your mobile number in the contact details...

Why mobile web apps are slow >> Sealed Abstract

guardiantech — 2013-07-15T21:52:32+00:00

Drew Crawford:

I’ve had an unusual number of interesting conversations spin out of my previous article documenting that mobile web apps are slow. This has sparked some discussion, both online and IRL. But sadly, the discussion has not been as… fact-based as I would like.

Everyone has been pointing to this post, with good reason: it's highly detailed and very useful.

Spain telecoms regulator sees more pain for operators in 2013 >> Reuters

guardiantech — 2013-07-04T14:53:54+00:00

Mobile is set for another tough year, with Orange, Yoigo (owned by TeliaSonera) and virtual operators, which rent network capacity from established operators, catching up with market leaders Telefonica and Vodafone who are losing clients.
Mobile revenue dropped 16% in 2012 to 9.5bn euros as consumers cut spending, switched to cheaper deals or ditched their mobiles altogether. Last year was the first time that the number of cellphone lines in Spain shrank, dropping by 1.9m connections.
Internet-based instant messaging services like WhatsApp, which are free after a small initial payment, are proving even more of a challenge for operators this year, Lorenzo said, as clients shun more expensive text messages.

It's quite shocking if the number of mobile connections fell. No clue whether that's people dumping a second (business?) mobile, or their primary mobile. One suspects the former, but more data welcomed.

Motorola is listening >> Beneath the Waves

guardiantech — 2013-07-02T21:44:10+00:00

Ben Lincoln:

In June of 2013, I made an interesting discovery about the Android phone (a Motorola Droid X2) which I was using at the time: it was silently sending a considerable amount of sensitive information to Motorola, and to compound the problem, a great deal of it was over an unencrypted HTTP channel.
If you're in a hurry, you can skip straight to the Analysis - email, ActiveSync, and social networking section - that's where the most sensitive information (e.g. email/social network account passwords) is discussed.

Concerning. (Thanks @ClarkeViper for the link.)

Style v substance in mobile software >> Mobile Opportunity

guardiantech — 2013-06-24T21:47:32+00:00

Michael Mace has been user testing mobile apps:

The most common problem I saw in the tests was users struggling with mobile apps and websites that prioritized beauty over usability. Too often, we as an industry equate an app that looks simple with an app that’s easy to use. Those are two entirely different things. Stripping all the text out of an app and hiding all of the buttons makes for a beautiful demo at TechCrunch, but a horrible user experience for people who are trying to get something done with an app.

There's a free downloadable white paper too (though it demands details like name and email).

Tell-all telephone >> De Zeit

guardiantech — 2013-06-09T23:55:26+00:00

Green party politician Malte Spitz sued to have German telecoms giant Deutsche Telekom hand over six months of his phone data that he then made available to ZEIT ONLINE. We combined this geolocation data with information relating to his life as a politician, such as Twitter feeds, blog entries and websites, all of which is all freely available on the internet. You can think of ways in which this is both good and bad.

'Draw Something' studio OMGPOP reportedly shuttered amid Zynga layoffs >> The Verge

guardiantech — 2013-06-09T22:01:15+00:00

As we reported earlier this afternoon, Zynga is laying off 520 employees, a full 18% of its global workforce, and reportedly shutting down offices in Los Angeles, Dallas, and New York. What we didn't realize is that OMGPOP is Zynga New York.
Now, OMGPOP's official Twitter account and some of its staffers are unsurprisingly tweeting that they're out of work, including community manager Joseph Alminawi and VP of outreach Ali Nicolas.

OMG it Popped. The real problem: couldn't adjust quickly enough to mobile.

Hard Choices: Intel’s ‘orrible new Haswell chips >> Rock, Paper, Shotgun

guardiantech — 2013-06-04T16:58:51+00:00

Jeremy Laird:

Intel reckons Haswell is the biggest step forward in processor efficiency in the history of its x86 CPUs. Yup, even bigger than the transition from Pentium 4 to Core.
Thus, if Haswell is anything like as good as Intel claims, it’s going to shake things up. Think tablets that combine iPad proportions with proper PC levels of processing prowess. Microsoft’s Surface Pro, as nice as it is in some ways, doesn’t quite deliver on that. Haswell, according to the hype, will. I’ve long wanted a tablet convertible that’s no bigger than an iPad but has the power of a proper PC. So I’m genuinely excited by the prospect. But it’s got naff-all to do with gaming PCs.

Given that laptops are outselling desktops by 4:3, and that gaming PCs make up a tiny fraction of desktop sales, this might not be a surprise. But does this point towards the end of gaming rigs? (Thanks @beardyweirdy666 for the link.)

Some thoughts on mobile >> Chris Dixon

guardiantech — 2013-06-03T16:19:09+00:00

He's a US-based venture capitalist:

Fans of Apple and Google have been arguing lately about which company is winning mobile. Apple has more profits, but Android has more users. But what really matters is when and if developers switch over to developing for Android first, or even Android only. For now, iOS users tend to monetize much better than Android users, more than making up for the smaller user base. The switch to Android first hasn’t happened yet, but at least based on conversations I’ve had with entrepreneurs, it seems likely to happen in the next year or two.
- Mobile has had a big effect on b2b software. People want to use their personal iOS/Android devices at work, and many people now have computers with them all the time who didn’t before. This has created opportunities for 1) traditional b2b software that is mobile friendly, 2) companies that support mobile devices for businesses (e.g. mobile security, compliance etc), 3) brand new categories of software for users who previously used pencil and paper for various business tasks.

As is pointed out in the comments, if you're an app developer in India, you're already going to be Android-only. Part of the problem about (the extremely tedious) "winning" arguments is that they don't take account of regional variation.

Billions: How exactly do Apple and Google count app downloads? >> The Next Web

guardiantech — 2013-05-20T05:19:18+00:00

Matthew Panzarino:

you can consider this the canonical answer to that question.
Both Apple and Google tabulate unique downloads of apps per user account. This means that they count only one download of an app no matter how many devices that you install that app on after you purchase it. Neither company counts updates in its app download numbers. These are purely single downloads from their stores.

So their app download figures are directly comparable.

Asha to Asha >> Stratechery

guardiantech — 2013-05-18T19:45:34+00:00

Ben Thompson:

Asha… has worse specifications than a cheap Android phone, and a much worse app selection. Thus it has been largely ignored by a tech press that considers little more than features and price.
However, finding a market is about finding a new axis of differentiation. In the case of low-end smartphones, are there things that matter beyond price and performance?
Consider again where Asha will be sold: India, Africa, Latin America – all have markets where mobile phones are the primary form of computing, as well as areas without consistent electricity. In such markets, nothing matters more than battery life.

And Asha has that in spades. In fact, the Asha range has sold more phones in the past three quarters than Windows Phone. (Also, bonus point for the title of the post.)

Pick your poison: messaging will be fragmented, expensive, or locked-in >> The Verge

guardiantech — 2013-05-16T16:18:54+00:00

The hottest space in mobile tech right now is messaging, with all the apps that let you skip past high-priced SMS and send texts for free (or very cheap). Just this week, we've heard that BlackBerry Messenger will soon work on iPhone and Android — and yesterday, Google Hangouts launched on those same platforms. Facebook, too, has made a big push to promote its Messenger solution with Facebook Home and Chat Heads just last month. Added together, these apps have surpassed traditional SMS in the total number of messages sent.
Yet for all that innovation in chat, there's still a problem. All these communication apps can't communicate with each other.

Exactly like instant messaging on the desktop, but now on mobile. Guess what though - there's one messaging standard that works across all mobile phones. It's called SMS.

Understanding smartphone use in stores: shoppers who use mobile more, spend more in store >> Google Mobile Ads Blog

guardiantech — 2013-05-12T20:28:15+00:00

The self-interest runs like the words through a stick of rock in this post, but this is intriguing:

Shoppers who use mobile more, spend more in store
While many businesses might assume that smartphone use in store drives shoppers to seek better prices elsewhere and order online, we found that the opposite was true. We compared the in-store purchases of moderate and frequent smartphone users and found that basket sizes of frequent mobile shoppers were 25-50% higher. For instance, while the average appliance smartphone shoppers spends $250 per shopping trip, frequent smartphone shoppers spend $350. Marketers shouldn’t shy away from the showrooming challenge, and should instead, meet it head on.

The only, but crucially big, question: is this causation - using smartphones more means you spend more - or correlation: people who use their smartphones more are also, for whatever reason, big spenders?

Mobile web apps are slow >> Sealed Abstract

guardiantech — 2013-05-12T20:18:24+00:00

Drew Crawford:

Now, if what you mean by “web app” is “website with a button or two”, you can tell all the fancypants benchmarks like SunSpider to take a hike. But if you mean “light word processing, light photo editing, local storage, and animations between screens” then you don’t want to be doing that in a web app on ARM unless you have a death wish.
Sure, you can design performant mobile web apps if you have good engineers. But do you know what else you can do with good engineers? Things that are actually of value to your customers.

Mobile phone usage in Asia >> Jana Mobile

guardiantech — 2013-05-07T20:33:33+00:00

Last week, we at Jana ran our first in a series of weekly surveys of mobile phone users in emerging markets. The theme for last week’s survey was mobile phone usage. We surveyed over 3,000 people in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, The Philippines, and Vietnam. We invite you to take a look at the results of the survey below.

An interactive infographic. Informative, though.

Mobile phone data redraws bus routes in Africa >> BBC News

guardiantech — 2013-05-02T17:17:46+00:00

Researchers at IBM have redrawn the bus routes of Ivory Coast's largest city using mobile phone data.
The research was completed as part of the Data for Development competition run by Orange which released 2.5bn call records from 5m mobile phone users in Ivory Coast.
The anonymised data is the largest of its kind ever released.
Such data could be used by urban planners for new infrastructure projects, said IBM.

Discovery: they could reduce travel times for people by 10%. If they could have integrated it with bus timetables..

Ghana’s ISPs are dying out because the mobile web is booming >> Quartz

guardiantech — 2013-05-02T17:09:33+00:00

Ghana boasts Africa’s highest penetration of mobile broadband, at 23% of the population in 2011, the latest year for which figures are available. That compares with just 7% in 2010. By contrast, fixed-broadband penetration stood at a negligible 0.3% in 2011, and that’s killing Ghana’s internet service providers (ISPs).
For a time, running an ISP was a trendy thing. Some 150 companies presently have a license, and about 20 are operational. But many of them are finding it hard to stay afloat. Even cyber cafés, many of which are run by ISPs, are beginning to shut down. Ghana’s biggest, which had 100 connections and its own satellite connection, closed in February.

One would guess that mobile broadband is a lot higher than 23% by 2013. Another unexpected consequence of the rise of the smartphone: in effect, it drives arbitrage between pricing of mobile and fixed broadband.

A Revolutionary Shape Changing Smartphone That Curls Upon a Call | Human Media Lab :: Queen's University

guardiantech — 2013-04-30T21:28:01+00:00

Researchers at queen’s university’s human media lab have developed a new smartphone – called morephone – which can morph its shape to give users a silent yet visual cue of an incoming phone call, text message or email.

Looks like those Christmas cracker fish which also tell you whether you're emotional or in love. (Thanks @Sputnikkers for the link.)

Apple tipping points - up or down? >> Benedict Evans

guardiantech — 2013-04-22T20:28:29+00:00

Moore's Law is at work, driving down prices; you can now get a 4.5" dual core Android phone from Huawei for just $200, and one from a generic Chinese manufacturer for $120-$150.
This is clearly a challenge for any handset OEM, but especially for one at the high end. There are fewer and fewer new high-end buyers coming into the market and the ones you sold to in the past may increasingly be tempted by ever improving cheaper phones. So a high-end phone maker risks losing sales if it stays at the high-end, or losing margin if it makes cheaper phones, or both.
In case it isn' t obvious, this is the essence of the bear story for Apple. There's lots of froth and nonsense swirling around as well, but this is a perfectly coherent and intelligent story. It isn't that Apple is losing sales to Android (it isn't, at least not yet) - it's that the high-end market itself may be close to tapped out.

This is the point where you have to figure out how the phone market is going to split.

Singapore’s NFC sign-ups are “slow” - report >> Mobile World Live

guardiantech — 2013-04-15T20:47:15+00:00

The rate at which mobile subscribers are signing up for NFC-based services in Singapore is “slow”, according to a report in the Straits Times.
Since last August about 15,000 users have upgraded to NFC-based SIM cards that enable mobile payments, sources told the publication.
Singapore has adopted a model whereby the country’s three mobile operators – SingTel, M1 and Starhub – have built a shared NFC infrastructure with partners in a government-backed approach. Although the underlying infrastructure is shared, the operators offer competitive retail services which they launched last summer.
Of the 15,000 figure, around half paid to upgrade their SIM cards to NFC, while the rest were given the cards as part of promotions.

What I learned about mobile in China… >> Robert Scoble on Google+ -

guardiantech — 2013-04-14T21:25:49+00:00

In China I met several entrepreneurs and others at the Bluetooth World conference there. China has a very different mobile culture, so thought I'd share what I learned here:

Truly fascinating on iPhones, Android, and BlackBerry and Windows Phone, as well as the firewall, VPNs and jailbreaking. A must-read, along with other data points in the comments. (Thanks @vassal for the link.)

Chart of the Week >> 51Degrees.mobi

guardiantech — 2013-04-07T20:01:56+00:00

This week's chart shows web traffic usage of the Blackberry Z10 in comparison to the traffic of the Sony Xperia Z during March 2013.
As you can see Australia and Europe seem to be using more of the Xperia Z, whereas the US and Canada seem to heavily favour the Blackberry Z10. We know it is home turf for Blackberry in Canada, but it seems Blackberry have managed to chip away at the American market as well.
Surprisingly the UK shows a small favour towards the flagship Sony device. Have Blackberry lost their dominance in the UK, or are they still a force in to be reckoned with?

Lots more very interesting graphs if you go to the "Product -> Mobile Analytics" page. (Ironically, it doesn't work well on mobile.) The one for Europe for OS share demonstrates that it's very much an Android/iOS world - and that the UK is the only place where BlackBerry makes a strong showing in Europe.

% Device count for Android vendors in the UK >> 51Degrees

guardiantech — 2013-04-07T19:40:31+00:00

Mobile analytics site (which ironically doesn't work at all well on mobile). Lots of different configurations to choose from: this one shows how Samsung took over from HTC in March 2012 and hasn't looked back.

Facebook Home >> Facebook

guardiantech — 2013-04-04T20:52:55+00:00

You may be seeing a lot more of this.

The Summly deal makes no sense >> Vibhu Norby

guardiantech — 2013-03-26T13:13:19+00:00

Vibhu Norby (founder of origami.com):

The story about Summly's 17-year old founder cashing out his company for $30,000,000 is fascinating because it makes no sense. I hate to be a curmudgeon, but I think Yahoo shareholders deserve an explanation. It's not clear at all to me that they are getting their money's worth.
…The craziest thing is that there are a lot of really qualified, CS-beefy teams doing really amazing things in the mobile news/discovery space these days - and that would definitely take a $30m acquisition offer or less. I don't really understand why they picked this one.

Includes a walkthrough of how the negotiations may have gone.

New Samsung security flaw – disable lockscreen, get total control >> Terence Eden

guardiantech — 2013-03-20T22:20:02+00:00

The latest to occur only in Samsung's lockscreen, but not in stock Google:

I have discovered another security flaw in Samsung Android phones. It is possible to completely disable the lock screen and get access to any app - even when the phone is "securely" locked with a pattern, PIN, password, or face detection. Unlike another recently released flaw, this doesn't rely quite so heavily on ultra-precise timing.

You do have to be pretty precise, though. But he unlocks the phone in less than 3 minutes. If it had been stolen, that might be enough. Samsung says it is "aware of it" - just as Apple has rolled out iOS 6.1.3, which removes its lockscreen bypass. (Thanks @rquick for the pointer; Eden also told us.)

2012 recap : the year mobile internet surpassed desktop internet in India >> Next Big What

guardiantech — 2013-03-05T21:51:50+00:00

The desktop market is shrinking, and it's a country where Nokia's S40 (aka Asha) and Symbian together make up the majority of mobile internet use - and Samsung is third. (Thanks @avro for the link.)

Android activations >> Benedict Evans

guardiantech — 2013-03-03T21:22:44+00:00

Android activations themselves, of course, are a somewhat murky data point. It has never been entirely clear (to me at least) how devices that are activated twice (for the growing second hand market, for example) are treated. On the other hand the great majority of Android devices sold in China, which are probably a third of the total, come with no Google services installed, including no Google Play, and hence are not even included in Google's activation numbers, since signing into Google Play is what counts as 'activation'. Even some Motorola phones are sold in this state. Such devices are invisible to Google.
In other words, asking Google about Android activations is a little like asking Microsoft about the Windows install base: it has some idea, but not a very precise one. Over time, with the proliferation of Kindle Fires, Android Car DVD players and all manner of other things, it might be a little like asking Linus Torvalds how many Linux devices there are: how should he know?

Note that IDC and Gartner include as "Android" those phones sold in China which don't connect to Google; they're somewhere between a quarter and a third of the "Android" figure quoted in, say, quarterly stats..

Kantar Worldpanel: Android and Verizon back on top In US smartphone sales, Android at nearly 50% of sales >> TechCrunch

guardiantech — 2013-02-25T22:12:57+00:00

Android, Kantar says, took 49.4% of smartphone sales, a growth of 6.4% points over the same period last year. Apple’s 45.9% of sales was 4.7% points down one year ago. It sources these numbers by extrapolating from data collected from 240,000 consumers annually.
And when you add those two numbers together you can see how ridiculously big the challenge is for others to get a look in. No. 3, Windows Phone, just barely breaks 3% of sales, although that’s an improvement on 2.1% last year.

Also notable: Windows Phone now leads BlackBerry, which was at 0.9% of sales. Can BB10 make a difference? (Thanks @modelportfolio2003 for the link.)

2013 iPass Mobile Enterprise Report >> iPass

guardiantech — 2013-02-09T23:07:15+00:00

• In line with the overall BYOD trend, IT is increasingly losing control of mobility budgets and departments are assuming greater responsibility. The number of enterprises in which IT manages the mobility budget has dropped from 53 to 48%, while it is now managed by business units in 22% of companies, and by finance in 18% of firms.
…• In 2012, Apple’s iPhone passed Research in Motion’s (RIM’s) BlackBerry to become the most popular smartphone in terms of corporate IT support. BlackBerry is still entrenched in the enterprise but it seems that it is being phased out.
• IT is more bullish on Microsoft’s Windows Phone 8 handsets than on RIM’s BlackBerry 10 phones. Both device lines are new and designed to appeal to the enterprise, as well as to consumers. However, only 34% of IT managers plan to support BlackBerry 10, compared to 45% who plan to support Windows Phone 8 devices going forward.
Tablet adoption is growing increasingly mainstream within the enterprise. Between 2011 and 2012, tablet usage increased in all nonexecutive departments, especially legal, HR/ administration and finance/accounting. The iPad is the top choice, with support from 73% of companies.

Don't Hold It Wrong >> Tumblr

guardiantech — 2013-02-07T16:46:21+00:00

David Chartier is collecting warnings about not holding phones wrong (it interferes with the antenna(e)). Nokia Lumia 820, Nokia 5130, Samsung Galaxy Note II, LG Cosmos, Nokia Lumia 900, Samsung Galaxy S III... it's a long and growing list.

If you lose your cellphone, don't blame Wayne Dobson >> ReviewJournal.com

guardiantech — 2013-01-15T23:10:54+00:00

Wayne Dobson doesn't have your cellphone.
Even if it looks like he might.
In the past two years the 59-year-old retiree has been pestered by people showing up at all hours of the day and night at his house, demanding their phones. They've yelled, shown him evidence, called the police - sworn that their phone is in his house.
But he's no thief.

Bizarre.

Fragmented world: what two years of traffic data teaches you about mobile >> Guardian Developer blog

guardiantech — 2012-12-30T22:22:36+00:00

As we set about redesigning our mobile site, one question that came up again and again was what the traffic to our existing site looked like.
We'd always known mobile to be a "fragmented" space, with the number of handsets expanding seemingly by the day, but could we get a better picture of what that fragmentation looked like?
A dip into the data proved instructive.
Note: we've looked at the top 250 mobile phone models ranked in terms of pages viewed. We looked at traffic to m.guardian.co.uk, our native iPhone and Android apps, and mobile devices accessing the guardian.co.uk desktop site. We did not include traffic to our iPad edition app.

The sheer number of different Samsung devices by 2012 is remarkable. However...

Unnatural acts and the rise of mobile >> Keith Teare

guardiantech — 2012-12-30T21:45:51+00:00

It's at Techcrunch, but Teare should be listened to because he helped build EasyNet, and then RealNames (and, well, TechCrunch):

A major symptom of the frenzy to monetize is that previously platform-centric products are reverting to destination-site thinking. Twitter’s adoption of media embedding, Instagram’s decision to pull its content from Twitter, Facebook’s launch of Poke and Google’s failure to add a write API to its G+ platform all display an “own the user” mentality. AdSense and AdWords would never have been invented had Larry and Sergey not understood the value of providing a monetization platform for others to benefit from, even for users not on Google. This is the type of thinking required today but currently all roads point to several varied attempts to re-portalize; that is to say, to own your own traffic and seek to monetize it. This is the old Yahoo view of the world and it clearly represents a limited mindset that will not scale to the huge mobile opportunity. For Twitter in particular, which has a large global opportunity as a platform, this trend represents a shrinking of its real opportunity.

There's plenty more like that, and all his insights are worth paying attention to.