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    <title>Pinboard (cshalizi)</title>
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    <description>recent bookmarks from cshalizi</description>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01621459.1948.10483278"/>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://journals.lww.com/greenjournal/Abstract/2021/11000/Homicide_During_Pregnancy_and_the_Postpartum.10.aspx"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://blog.pnas.org/2021/10/frustrations-can-combust-into-a-riot-regardless-of-age-politics-or-gender/"/>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01621459.2021.1898408"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/investigations/police-shootings-database/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.pnas.org/content/118/15/e2020430118"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.skeptic.com/research-center/reports/Research-Report-CUPES-007.pdf"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/national/mass-shootings-in-america/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2018/08/27/640323347/the-school-shootings-that-werent"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2019-09-01/mass-shooting-data-odessa-midland-increase?_amp=true"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5296697/#__ffn_sectitle"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://thebaffler.com/latest/brutal-force-al-gharbi"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/06/65309/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://lawliberty.org/social-control-and-human-dignity/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://traditionsofconflict.com/blog/2020/4/28/conceptual-issues-with-evolutionary-psychology-the-case-of-the-mate-killing-module"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/ajz2q/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/12/mass-shootings-mother-jones-full-data/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105222"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/170333"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.charlieseguin.com/dot_map.html"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520303812/deadly-quarrels?mc_cid=d39b6fa4f5&amp;mc_eid=3d88be13af"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674986800"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/investigations/unsolved-homicide-database/?city=pittsburgh"/>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11186-018-9305-y"/>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2013/07/18/indonesias-happy-killers/"/>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/S/bo23044232"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://sup.org/books/title/?id=24505"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.euppublishing.com/doi/10.3366/shr.2015.0239"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=23748"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-great-evasion"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/distributed/B/bo22555403"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://sociological-eye.blogspot.com/2012/05/drug-business-is-not-key-to-gangs-and.html"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.pnas.org/content/111/47/16712.abstract.html?etoc"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/May-2014/Chicago-crime-rates/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.104.1.123"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://haquelebac.wordpress.com/2013/11/27/pekka-hamalainen-the-comanche-empire/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://abandonedfootnotes.blogspot.com/2013/11/aztec-political-thought.html"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2156234"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/47/4/363"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://inthesetimes.com/duly-noted/entry/14356/newtown_and_the_crisis_of_masculinity/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://abstractfactory.blogspot.com/2012/12/are-lone-gunman-school-shootings.html"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://lisaschweitzer.com/2012/08/07/teachers-versus-armed-civilians-in-mass-murder-prevention/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.theonion.com/articles/sadly-nation-knows-exactly-how-colorado-shootings,28857/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.chrisblattman.com/documents/research/2011.EconomicShocksAndConflict.pdf?9d7bd4"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://chrisblattman.com/2012/02/13/can-we-predict-local-conflict/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/27497/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://arxiv.org/abs/1201.2458"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.bostonreview.net/BR37.1/claude_fischer_steven_pinker_better_angels_nature.php"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/tucson-shooting-memory-4874485"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.theonion.com/articles/shooting-suspect-released-after-not-breaking-any-a,18809/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2011/01/11/sneak-preview-of-the-cover-of-the-stranger-this-week-created-by-dan-savage-and-aaron-huffman"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://inversesquare.wordpress.com/2011/01/09/weimar-politics-in-az/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.csgv.org/issues-and-campaigns/guns-democracy-and-freedom/insurrection-timeline"/>
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  </channel><item rdf:about="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/18/technology/spain-domestic-violence-viogen-algorithm.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&amp;referringSource=articleShare&amp;sgrp=c-cb">
    <title>An Algorithm Told Police She Was Safe. Then Her Husband Killed Her. - The New York Times</title>
    <dc:date>2024-07-19T04:32:41+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/18/technology/spain-domestic-violence-viogen-algorithm.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&amp;referringSource=articleShare&amp;sgrp=c-cb</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[--- I'll certainly teach this, but it's worth emphasizing something that this only hints at in its quotes.  Suppose this scoring system is (1) generally very reliable but not perfect, while (2) police protection works when it's provided.  It then follows that a very large share of the women who do get killed will be ones who were scored at low risk, precisely because all the high-risk cases are being effectually protected!]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB to_teach:data-mining risk_assessment violence ethical_and_political_issues_in_data_mining decision-making have_read via:aeo</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:6ffe6f5184b4/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1745-9125.12353#crim12353-supitem-0001">
    <title>Streetwork at the crossroads: An evaluation of a street gang outreach intervention and holistic appraisal of the research evidence - Hureau - 2023 - Criminology - Wiley Online Library</title>
    <dc:date>2024-03-04T14:27:53+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1745-9125.12353#crim12353-supitem-0001</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Spurred by the success of public health violence interventions, and accelerated by policy pressure to reduce violence without exacerbating overpolicing and mass incarceration, streetwork programs—those that provide anti-violence services by neighborhood-based workers who perform their work beyond the walls of parochial institutions—have positioned themselves as the most important non–law-enforcement violence prevention option available to urban policy makers. Yet despite their importance, the state of the field seems difficult to interpret for academics and practitioners alike. In this article, we make several contributions that bring forth new findings and deliver new perspectives on streetwork as a violence reduction strategy. First, we offer an extended analytic review of the streetwork evaluation literature that connects the study of contemporary public health violence interventions to a preceding tradition of criminologically inspired streetwork studies. Second, we present the results of an impact evaluation of StreetSafe Boston (SSB)—a multiyear streetwork intervention that served 20 Boston gangs. We find that the SSB intervention had no detectable effect on violence among the gangs that it served. We conclude by offering a framework for understanding a field at multiple crossroads: past and present, proclaimed successes and failures, help and harm."

--- That last sentence is the most poetic way I can remember of announcing an informative null result.
--- Last tag is conditional on finding replication data.]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB to_read causal_inference crime violence public_policy winship.christopher to_teach:undergrad-ADA</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f109c63b3182/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article-abstract/doi/10.1162/rest_a_01323/115634/Flight-from-Urban-Blight-Lead-Poisoning-Crime-and?redirectedFrom=fulltext">
    <title>Flight from Urban Blight: Lead Poisoning, Crime, and Suburbanization | The Review of Economics and Statistics | MIT Press</title>
    <dc:date>2024-01-08T02:25:26+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article-abstract/doi/10.1162/rest_a_01323/115634/Flight-from-Urban-Blight-Lead-Poisoning-Crime-and?redirectedFrom=fulltext</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["In this paper we study the effect of violent crime on residential and firms location decisions and their implications for segregation in cities. We do so by proposing a new instrument to exogenously predict violent crime in city centers. We base our instrument on chemical and medical evidence that links local characteristics of the soil to lead poisoning and aggression. We show that the increase in violent crime between 1960 and 1990 due to lead poisoning moved almost 8 million people to the suburbs. Firms followed by leaving the city centers. We then show that the suburbanization process was characterized by “white flight”."

--- Really interested to see how they argue the _only_ channel for their instrument is through lead...]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB lead violence economic_history causal_inference</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:2800ba1fc860/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/nov/15/the-gun-numbers-just-3-of-american-adults-own-a-collective-133m-firearms">
    <title>The gun numbers: just 3% of American adults own a collective 133m firearms | Gun crime | The Guardian</title>
    <dc:date>2023-05-08T21:15:57+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/nov/15/the-gun-numbers-just-3-of-american-adults-own-a-collective-133m-firearms</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>guns violence heavy_tails have_read via:? tracked_down_references</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:da4b214e694b/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://cjcc.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/cjcc/release_content/attachments/DC%20Gun%20Violence%20Problem%20Analysis%20Summary%20Report.pdf">
    <title>Gun Violence Problem Analysis Summary Report for Washington, D.C. (National Institute for Criminal Justice Reform, December 2021)</title>
    <dc:date>2023-05-02T20:07:13+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://cjcc.dc.gov/sites/default/files/dc/sites/cjcc/release_content/attachments/DC%20Gun%20Violence%20Problem%20Analysis%20Summary%20Report.pdf</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[--- Tables 1 and 2 are incredibly depressing.  (So's the map, because it's exactly what I'd expect from growing up in the suburbs in the 1980s.)]]></description>
<dc:subject>have_skimmed violence crime washington_d.c. to_teach:statistics_of_inequality_and_discrimination</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:e6d4f79e2bf2/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/10887679231163287">
    <title>“Not as Bad as the ‘90s”? Firearm Violence in Small, Mid-Size, and Large US Cities, 2015–2021 - Magic M. Wade, 2023</title>
    <dc:date>2023-05-02T19:59:49+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/10887679231163287</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["I examine firearm homicide and injury data from more cities (N = 1,328) during a longer timespan (2015–2021) than previous research on firearm violence encapsulating the Covid-19 pandemic. I contextualize the historic 2020 spike in gun violence within a broader trend of worsening gun violence impacting hundreds of US cities since 2015. More cities (364) are surpassing adverse homicide rate benchmarks observed during the 1980s–1990s, and US states situated in all regions contain numerous peak gun violence cities. Examining gun violence trends outside of the largest US cities is imperative, since 42% of all firearm homicides occur in places with populations <250,000, and over two-thirds of peak violence cities (243) have fewer than 100,000 residents. A shared sense of the scope and severity of the problem of gun violence is also urgently needed. For too many American communities, it’s not as bad as the 1990s, it’s worse."

--- If one applied a _very_ naive binomial model, with a constant rate of homicide per person per year, independent across persons and years, you'd expect a lot of the peak cities to be smaller, because they'd have larger variance in their (realized) homicide rates.  I presume the author does something to account for this...
--- (Last tag is if I drastically expand the unit on crime.)]]></description>
<dc:subject>in_NB crime sociology violence to_teach:statistics_of_inequality_and_discrimination have_read</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:8540f1ca770f/</dc:identifier>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:sociology"/>
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</item>
<item rdf:about="https://acleddata.com/2020/09/03/demonstrations-political-violence-in-america-new-data-for-summer-2020/">
    <title>Demonstrations and Political Violence in America: New Data for Summer 2020</title>
    <dc:date>2023-03-18T14:24:28+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://acleddata.com/2020/09/03/demonstrations-political-violence-in-america-new-data-for-summer-2020/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[--- Last tag is very tentative, as this particular data set might be too inflammatory (you should pardon the expression).  Maybe if aggregated with others over a longer time period?]]></description>
<dc:subject>data_sets violence whats_gone_wrong_with_america spatial_statistics to_teach:data_over_space_and_time</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f7c793389d67/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36084751/">
    <title>Association between race, shooting hot spots, and the surge in gun violence during the COVID-19 pandemic in Philadelphia, New York and Los Angeles - PubMed</title>
    <dc:date>2023-03-15T15:12:22+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36084751/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Gun violence rates increased in U.S. cities in 2020 and into 2021. Gun violence rates in U.S. cities is typically concentrated in racially segregated neighborhoods with higher poverty levels. However, poverty levels and demographics alone do not explain the high concentration of violence or its relative change over time. In this paper, we examine the extent to which the increase in shooting victimization in Philadelphia, New York, and Los Angeles during the 2020-2021 pandemic was concentrated in gun violence hot spots, and how the increase impacted race and ethnic disparities in shooting victimization rates. We find that 36% (Philadelphia), 47% (New York), and 55% (Los Angeles) of the increase in shootings observed during the period 2020-2021 occurred in the top decile of census block groups, by aggregate number of shootings, and that the race/ethnicity of victims in these gun violence hot spots were disproportionately Black and Hispanic. We discuss the implications of these findings as they relate to racial disparities in victimization and place-based efforts to reduce gun violence."

--- The bit about seeing how much more concentration there really is, than would be "explained" (=predicted) by demographics alone is interesting.  I am not sure it's the right way to do it, but also not sure what'd be better.  (Fit a model using only the demographics, bootstrap the residuals, and calculate the Gini the ordinary way from the simulations?)]]></description>
<dc:subject>crime violence spatial_statistics racism to_teach:statistics_of_inequality_and_discrimination to_teach:data_over_space_and_time brantingham.p._jeffrey have_read crime_and_space in_NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:4502974a1eda/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:crime"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:spatial_statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:racism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:statistics_of_inequality_and_discrimination"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:data_over_space_and_time"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:brantingham.p._jeffrey"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:crime_and_space"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01621459.1948.10483278">
    <title>Variation of the Frequency of Fatal Quarrels with Magnitude: Journal of the American Statistical Association: Vol 43, No 244 (1948)</title>
    <dc:date>2022-12-29T03:55:54+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01621459.1948.10483278</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["A record of wars during the interval A.D. 1820 to 1945 has been collected from the whole world, and has been classified according to the number of war-dead. The smaller incidents have been the more frequent, according to a fairly regular graph which can be extended to quarrels that caused a single death."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB heavy_tails richardson.lewis_fry violence war</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:dac87af772d0/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:heavy_tails"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:richardson.lewis_fry"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:war"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2799859">
    <title>Comparing Risks of Firearm-Related Death and Injury Among Young Adult Males in Selected US Cities With Wartime Service in Iraq and Afghanistan | Firearms | JAMA Network Open | JAMA Network</title>
    <dc:date>2022-12-29T02:34:18+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2799859</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Design, Setting, and Participants  In this cross-sectional study of young adult males aged 18 to 29 years living in the top 10% most violent zip codes in each domestic setting (as measured by fatal shooting rates), fatal and nonfatal shooting data for 2020 and 2021 were aggregated at the zip code level for 4 of the largest US cities (Chicago, Illinois; Los Angeles, California; New York, New York; and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania). Wartime mortality and combat injury rates for the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan were used to assess relative risk.
"Main Outcomes and Measures  The relative risk of firearm-related death and nonfatal shootings in each setting as compared with combat death and injury in the comparator setting.
"Results  Of 129 826 young adult males aged 18 to 29 years living in the top 10% most violent zip codes in the 4 cities studied, 45 725 (35.2%) were Black, 71 005 (54.7%) were Hispanic, and 40 355 (31.1%) were White. Among this population, there were 470 homicides and 1684 firearm-related injuries. Young adult males living in the most violent zip code of Chicago (2585 individuals aged 20-29 y) and Philadelphia (2448 individuals aged 18-29 y) faced a higher risk of firearm-related homicide than US soldiers who were deployed to Afghanistan, with risk ratios of 3.23 (95% CI, 2.47-4.68) and 1.91 (95% CI, 1.32-3.46), respectively. In expanding the analysis to the top 10% of the cities’ most violent zip codes, the risks in Chicago likewise exceeded those of combat death faced by military service members, with a risk ratio of 2.10 (95% CI, 1.82-2.46), and the risks in Philadelphia were comparable with those of deployment to war 1.15 (95% CI, 0.98-1.39). Nonfatal shooting risks were comparable with, or exceeded, the injury risk of combat in Iraq, producing a combined annual firearm risk of 5.8% in Chicago and 3.2% in Philadelphia. However, these findings were not observed in the most violent zip codes of Los Angeles and New York City, where young men faced a 70% to 91% lower risk than soldiers in the Afghanistan war across fatal and nonfatal categories (eg, fatal shooting in most violent zip code in Los Angeles: risk ratio, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.26-0.34; nonfatal shooting in top 10% most violent zip codes in New York: risk ratio, 0.09; 95% CI, 0.08-0.10). The risk of violent death and injury observed in the zip codes studied was almost entirely borne by individuals from minoritized racial and ethnic groups: Black and Hispanic males represented 96.2% of those who were fatally shot (452 individuals) and 97.3% of those who experienced nonfatal injury (1636 individuals) across the 4 settings studied."

--- This could basically be a (very grim) exercise for The Kids.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB violence crime spatial_statistics to_teach:data_over_space_and_time to_teach:statistics_of_inequality_and_discrimination crime_and_space</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:2492d812b08e/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:crime"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:spatial_statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:data_over_space_and_time"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:statistics_of_inequality_and_discrimination"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:crime_and_space"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://papers.andycao.org/Media_Crime_Project.pdf">
    <title>Does News Coverage of Hate-motivated Mass Shootings Generate More Hatred?</title>
    <dc:date>2022-12-28T18:50:59+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://papers.andycao.org/Media_Crime_Project.pdf</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["This paper investigates the role that the media play in promoting hatred through the news
coverage of mass shootings. I first show through observational data that the media treat mass
shootings differently depending on the motive behind the shooting. Any time a shooting targets
a specific ethnicity/race/religion/gender/etc, i.e., the shooting is hate-motivated, its news coverage differs in two respects: 1) higher coverage; 2) more focus on the shooter. I then show that
there is more public interest in hate-motivated mass shootings, based on online searching behavior. Finally, I provide suggestive evidence that, immediately following a hate-motivated mass
shooting, there is an increase in the number of hate crimes against the same victimized group.
Based on these findings and the existing literature, I hypothesize that the way hate-motivated
mass shootings are covered in the news contributes to spreading hatred. I test my hypotheses
by conducting an online information provision experiment where I manipulate how a real past
mass shooting targeting immigrants is reported in the news. In particular, I examine how, in the
United States, Democrats and Republicans, who have different ex-ante views about immigration,
react to news coverage that emphasizes the hate ideology or the identity and personal background
of the shooter. Results from the experiment show that receiving details about the shooter’s hate
ideology increases Republicans’ support for the shooter. Emphasis on the shooter’s identity and
background increases Democrats’ support for both the shooter and the shooter’s hate ideology.
The latter finding is driven by the more right-leaning individuals within the Democrat sample."

--- I am very sympathetic to the idea that these crimes, like terrorism, should be covered only minimally by the media, since a big part of the motivation in both cases is being known.  ("The propaganda of the deed" = The infamy is the point.)  But the findings described in this abstract sound very weird, hence the last tag.]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB violence media_effects social_influence sociology via:? color_me_skeptical</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:308125e30dd0/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:media_effects"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_influence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:sociology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:?"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:color_me_skeptical"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article-abstract/104/4/764/97753/The-Promise-and-Pitfalls-of-Conflict-Prediction?redirectedFrom=fulltext">
    <title>The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia | The Review of Economics and Statistics | MIT Press</title>
    <dc:date>2022-07-23T17:05:37+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article-abstract/104/4/764/97753/The-Promise-and-Pitfalls-of-Conflict-Prediction?redirectedFrom=fulltext</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["How feasible is violence early-warning prediction? Colombia and Indonesia have unusually fine-grained data. We assemble two decades of local violent events alongside hundreds of annual risk factors. We attempt to predict violence one year ahead with a range of machine learning techniques. Our models reliably identify persistent, high-violence hot spots. Violence is not simply autoregressive, as detailed histories of disaggregated violence perform best, but socioeconomic data substitute well for these histories. Even with unusually rich data, however, our models poorly predict new outbreaks or escalations of violence. These “best-case” scenarios with annual data fall short of workable early-warning systems."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB prediction violence political_science blattman.chris</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:4795b27b0448/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:political_science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:blattman.chris"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://chrisblattman.com/2022/01/31/why-i-do-not-expect-a-civil-war-in-america-and-what-does-worry-me/">
    <title>Why I do not expect a civil war in America (and what does worry me) - Chris Blattman</title>
    <dc:date>2022-02-01T15:19:11+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://chrisblattman.com/2022/01/31/why-i-do-not-expect-a-civil-war-in-america-and-what-does-worry-me/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[This is very good.  (The bits about Polity scores are disturbing / infuriating / blackly funny.)]]></description>
<dc:subject>us_politics the_continuing_crises violence political_science have_read blattman.chris social_measurement via:?</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f9b1f06e3628/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:us_politics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:the_continuing_crises"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:political_science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:blattman.chris"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_measurement"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:?"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://journals.lww.com/greenjournal/Abstract/2021/11000/Homicide_During_Pregnancy_and_the_Postpartum.10.aspx">
    <title>Homicide During Pregnancy and the Postpartum Period in the U... : Obstetrics &amp; Gynecology</title>
    <dc:date>2021-12-13T06:23:50+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://journals.lww.com/greenjournal/Abstract/2021/11000/Homicide_During_Pregnancy_and_the_Postpartum.10.aspx</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[OBJECTIVE: 
To estimate the national pregnancy-associated homicide mortality ratio, characterize pregnancy-associated homicide victims, and compare the risk of homicide in the perinatal period (pregnancy and up to 1 year postpartum) with risk among nonpregnant, nonpostpartum females aged 10–44 years.

METHODS: 
Data from the National Center for Health Statistics 2018 and 2019 mortality files were used to identify all female decedents aged 10–44 in the United States. These data were used to estimate 2-year pregnancy-associated homicide mortality ratios (deaths/100,000 live births) for comparison with homicide mortality among nonpregnant, nonpostpartum females (deaths/100,000 population) and to mortality ratios for direct maternal causes of death. We compared characteristics and estimated homicide mortality rate ratios and 95% CIs between pregnant or postpartum and nonpregnant, nonpostpartum victims for the total population and with stratification by race and ethnicity and age.

RESULTS: 
There were 3.62 homicides per 100,000 live births among females who were pregnant or within 1 year postpartum, 16% higher than homicide prevalence among nonpregnant and nonpostpartum females of reproductive age (3.12 deaths/100,000 population, P<.05). Homicide during pregnancy or within 42 days of the end of pregnancy exceeded all the leading causes of maternal mortality by more than twofold. Pregnancy was associated with a significantly elevated homicide risk in the Black population and among girls and younger women (age 10–24 years) across racial and ethnic subgroups.

CONCLUSION: 
Homicide is a leading cause of death during pregnancy and the postpartum period in the United States. Pregnancy and the postpartum period are times of elevated risk for homicide among all females of reproductive age.

Homicide is a leading cause of death during pregnancy and the postpartum period in the United States.


--- Probably too grim for classroom use.]]></description>
<dc:subject>violence sexism</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:3886996406d3/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:sexism"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://blog.pnas.org/2021/10/frustrations-can-combust-into-a-riot-regardless-of-age-politics-or-gender/">
    <title>Frustrations can combust into a riot regardless of age, politics, or gender | National Academy of Sciences</title>
    <dc:date>2021-10-06T15:51:13+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://blog.pnas.org/2021/10/frustrations-can-combust-into-a-riot-regardless-of-age-politics-or-gender/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[--- I'm sorry, but as described, this is idiotic, because extrapolating from "pressing buttons in a videogame" to "engaging in physical violence, putting yourself at risk of bodily harm" is idiotic.  If they wanted to extrapolate to willingness to engage in online harassment / trolling / mobbing, that'd be more to the point.
(It is, of course, possible that the write-up of the study is grossly distorting it, and this is addressed somehow by the actual paper, though I can't begin to imagine how.  If I ever read the paper and come away convinced, I will eat crow and remove the last tag.)]]></description>
<dc:subject>psychology violence why_oh_why_cant_we_have_a_better_academic_publishing_system riots utter_stupidity</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:a13e16eb9742/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:psychology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:why_oh_why_cant_we_have_a_better_academic_publishing_system"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:riots"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:utter_stupidity"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.drrandallcollins.com/sociological-eye/2019/6/8/do-miyamoto-musashis-zen-samurai-techniques-apply-to-everything">
    <title>DO MIYAMOTO MUSASHI’S ZEN SAMURAI TECHNIQUES APPLY TO EVERYTHING? — Dr. Randall Collins</title>
    <dc:date>2021-07-22T17:13:21+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.drrandallcollins.com/sociological-eye/2019/6/8/do-miyamoto-musashis-zen-samurai-techniques-apply-to-everything</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[I should ask my sociologist contacts just how much of an eccentric R.C. is...]]></description>
<dc:subject>musashi.miyamoto moral_psychology violence collins.randall</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:547bdf1d82eb/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:musashi.miyamoto"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:moral_psychology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:collins.randall"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01621459.2021.1898408">
    <title>Investigating Clustering and Violence Interruption in Gang-Related Violent Crime Data Using Spatial–Temporal Point Processes With Covariates: Journal of the American Statistical Association: Vol 0, No 0</title>
    <dc:date>2021-04-25T03:24:29+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01621459.2021.1898408</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Reported gang-related violent crimes in Los Angeles, California, from 1/1/14 to 12/31/17 are modeled using spatial–temporal marked Hawkes point processes with covariates. We propose an algorithm to estimate the spatial-temporally varying background rate nonparametrically as a function of demographic covariates. Kernel smoothing and generalized additive models are used in an attempt to model the background rate as closely as possible in an effort to differentiate inhomogeneity in the background rate from causal clustering or triggering of events. The models are fit to data from 2014 to 2016 and evaluated using data from 2017, based on log-likelihood and superthinned residuals. The impact of nonrandomized violence interruption performed by The City of Los Angeles Mayor’s Office of Gang Reduction Youth Development (GRYD) Incident Response (IR) Program is assessed by comparing the triggering associated with GRYD IR Program events to the triggering associated with sub-sampled non-GRYD events selected to have a similar spatial–temporal distribution. The results suggest that GRYD IR Program violence interruption yields a reduction of approximately 18.3% in the retaliation rate in locations more than 130 m from the original reported crimes, and a reduction of 14.2% in retaliations within 130 m."]]></description>
<dc:subject>crime violence spatio-temporal_statistics point_processes causal_inference crime_and_space in_NB brantingham.p._jeffrey</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:c1639b50e553/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:crime"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:spatio-temporal_statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:point_processes"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:causal_inference"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:crime_and_space"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:brantingham.p._jeffrey"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/investigations/police-shootings-database/">
    <title>Police shootings database 2015-2021 - Washington Post</title>
    <dc:date>2021-04-19T03:00:07+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/investigations/police-shootings-database/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>violence police data_sets</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:bd1a2801105f/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:police"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:data_sets"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.pnas.org/content/118/15/e2020430118">
    <title>Combat stress in a small-scale society suggests divergent evolutionary roots for posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms | PNAS</title>
    <dc:date>2021-04-14T14:49:59+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.pnas.org/content/118/15/e2020430118</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Military personnel in industrialized societies often develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) during combat. It is unclear whether combat-related PTSD is a universal evolutionary response to danger or a culture-specific syndrome of industrialized societies. We interviewed 218 Turkana pastoralist warriors in Kenya, who engage in lethal cattle raids, about their combat experiences and PTSD symptoms. Turkana in our sample had a high prevalence of PTSD symptoms, but Turkana with high symptom severity had lower prevalence of depression-like symptoms than American service members with high symptom severity. Symptoms that facilitate responding to danger were better predicted by combat exposure, whereas depressive symptoms were better predicted by exposure to combat-related moral violations. The findings suggest that some PTSD symptoms stem from an evolved response to danger, while depressive PTSD symptoms may be caused by culturally specific moral norm violations."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB anthropology violence ptsd culture-bound_syndromes</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:d0ee95b56737/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:anthropology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:ptsd"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:culture-bound_syndromes"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.skeptic.com/research-center/reports/Research-Report-CUPES-007.pdf">
    <title>How Informed are Americans about Race and Policing?</title>
    <dc:date>2021-02-26T22:50:54+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.skeptic.com/research-center/reports/Research-Report-CUPES-007.pdf</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Obvious political-affiliation gradient is obvious, but also concerning is that _everyone_ skews very high.  About 5% of "very conservative" respondents are off by 3 orders of magnitude!  (A malicious part of me adds: this may be wishful thinking on their part.)
--- Something I'd need to know more about survey design to answer: since the actual number is low (13, as best as can be told), is providing a range of exponentially larger answers _inducing_ an appearance of ignorance?  E.g., maybe some respondents (at some level) take it as a cooperative, conversational cue that the larger options are somehow relevant. (Cf. [http://bactra.org/weblog/000014.html].)  
--- When I give my students multiple choice questions, if I am doing my job the incorrect options are ones they'd reach if they made specific mistakes in solving the problem, because that's diagnostic for me (and for them, when they see the solutions key).  Is there a way of designing a more elaborate survey like this which would tell us _why_ people come up with wildly-wrong numbers for this question?
--- Something I'd need to know more about epistemology and moral psychology to answer: if lots of the "very conservative" respondents who answered "about 10" actually had no idea what the true number was, but picked the smallest one to express their feeling that it's not a big issue and/or the libs are horrible, can they really be said to be more _accurate_ about this matter?
]]></description>
<dc:subject>police the_american_dilemma polarization surveys the_public_and_its_problems violence to_teach:statistics_of_inequality_and_discrimination</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:a4cf1858bbf5/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:police"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:the_american_dilemma"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:polarization"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:surveys"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:the_public_and_its_problems"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:statistics_of_inequality_and_discrimination"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/national/mass-shootings-in-america/">
    <title>Mass shooting statistics in the United States - Washington Post</title>
    <dc:date>2020-12-05T19:36:59+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/national/mass-shootings-in-america/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>violence data_sets mass_shootings re:statistics_of_muckers visual_display_of_quantitative_information</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f1fb448513b9/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:data_sets"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mass_shootings"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:statistics_of_muckers"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:visual_display_of_quantitative_information"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2018/08/27/640323347/the-school-shootings-that-werent">
    <title>The School Shootings That Weren't : NPR</title>
    <dc:date>2020-11-29T18:57:40+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2018/08/27/640323347/the-school-shootings-that-werent</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["How many times per year does a gun go off in an American school?
"We should know. But we don't.
"This spring the U.S. Education Department reported that in the 2015-2016 school year, "nearly 240 schools ... reported at least 1 incident involving a school-related shooting." The number is far higher than most other estimates.
"But NPR reached out to every one of those schools repeatedly over the course of three months and found that more than two-thirds of these reported incidents never happened. Child Trends, a nonpartisan nonprofit research organization, assisted NPR in analyzing data from the government's Civil Rights Data Collection.
"We were able to confirm just 11 reported incidents, either directly with schools or through media reports."]]></description>
<dc:subject>track_down_references mass_shootings violence bad_data_analysis social_measurement re:statistics_of_muckers</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:129a0c146def/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:track_down_references"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mass_shootings"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bad_data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_measurement"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:statistics_of_muckers"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2019-09-01/mass-shooting-data-odessa-midland-increase?_amp=true">
    <title>Opinion: We analyzed 53 years of mass shooting data. Attacks aren't just increasing, they're getting deadlier - Los Angeles Times</title>
    <dc:date>2020-11-29T18:56:01+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2019-09-01/mass-shooting-data-odessa-midland-increase?_amp=true</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["We analyzed 53 years of mass shooting data. Attacks aren’t just increasing, they’re getting deadlier"]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB to_read point_processes time_series mass_shootings re:statistics_of_muckers violence</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:e2db3310623e/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:point_processes"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:time_series"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mass_shootings"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:statistics_of_muckers"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5296697/#__ffn_sectitle">
    <title>Mass Shootings: The Role of the Media in Promoting Generalized Imitation</title>
    <dc:date>2020-11-29T18:53:46+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5296697/#__ffn_sectitle</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Mass shootings are a particular problem in the United States, with one mass shooting occurring approximately every 12.5 days.
"Recently a “contagion” effect has been suggested wherein the occurrence of one mass shooting increases the likelihood of another mass shooting occurring in the near future. Although contagion is a convenient metaphor used to describe the temporal spread of a behavior, it does not explain how the behavior spreads. Generalized imitation is proposed as a better model to explain how one person’s behavior can influence another person to engage in similar behavior.
"Here we provide an overview of generalized imitation and discuss how the way in which the media report a mass shooting can increase the likelihood of another shooting event. Also, we propose media reporting guidelines to minimize imitation and further decrease the likelihood of a mass shooting."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB to_read contagion social_influence mass_shootings re:homophily_and_confounding re:statistics_of_muckers violence</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:e156d5a494ef/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:contagion"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_influence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mass_shootings"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:homophily_and_confounding"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:statistics_of_muckers"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://thebaffler.com/latest/brutal-force-al-gharbi">
    <title>Brutal Force | Musa al-Gharbi</title>
    <dc:date>2020-07-28T18:51:46+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://thebaffler.com/latest/brutal-force-al-gharbi</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>police violence our_decrepit_institutions al-gharbi.musa</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f4c733ad2abf/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:police"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:our_decrepit_institutions"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:al-gharbi.musa"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/06/65309/">
    <title>Above the Law: The Data Are In on Police, Killing, and Race - Public Discourse</title>
    <dc:date>2020-07-16T19:34:06+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/06/65309/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Of course, since this is a conservative publication, this is used as an occasion to attack public-sector unions, but I think the moral indignation is sincere (and appropriate).]]></description>
<dc:subject>police violence our_decrepit_institutions</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:175ef220e3a8/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:police"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:our_decrepit_institutions"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://lawliberty.org/social-control-and-human-dignity/">
    <title>Social Control and Human Dignity - Law &amp; Liberty</title>
    <dc:date>2020-06-30T21:44:56+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://lawliberty.org/social-control-and-human-dignity/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[An exposition of Glenn Loury's work.]]></description>
<dc:subject>racism violence police the_american_dilemma loury.glenn</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:82b01aad2c52/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:racism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:police"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:the_american_dilemma"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:loury.glenn"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://traditionsofconflict.com/blog/2020/4/28/conceptual-issues-with-evolutionary-psychology-the-case-of-the-mate-killing-module">
    <title>Conceptual Issues with Evolutionary Psychology: The Case of the ‘Mate-Killing Module’ — Traditions of Conflict</title>
    <dc:date>2020-04-30T14:19:48+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://traditionsofconflict.com/blog/2020/4/28/conceptual-issues-with-evolutionary-psychology-the-case-of-the-mate-killing-module</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>evolutionary_psychology evisceration violence</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:d7681a977afe/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:evolutionary_psychology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:evisceration"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/ajz2q/">
    <title>SocArXiv Papers | Do police killings of unarmed persons really have spillover effects? Reanalyzing Bor et al. (2018)</title>
    <dc:date>2020-01-03T14:25:12+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/ajz2q/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["We reevaluate the claim from Bor et al. (2018: 302) that “police killings of unarmed black Americans have effects on mental health among black American adults in the general population.” The Mapping Police Violence data used by the authors misclassified 93 incidents involving black decedents who were either (1) not killed by police officers in the line of duty or (2) armed when killed. Correctly recoding these incidents decreased in magnitude all of the reported coefficients, and, more importantly, eliminated the reported statistically significant effect of exposure to police killings of unarmed black individuals on the mental health of black Americans in the general population. We caution researchers to vet carefully crowdsourced data that tracks police behaviors and warn against reducing these complex incidents to overly simplistic armed/unarmed dichotomies."]]></description>
<dc:subject>causal_inference epidemiology police violence regression via:rvenkat to:NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:4164a80995a3/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:causal_inference"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:epidemiology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:police"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:regression"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:rvenkat"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/12/mass-shootings-mother-jones-full-data/">
    <title>US Mass Shootings, 1982-2019: Data From Mother Jones’ Investigation – Mother Jones</title>
    <dc:date>2019-08-08T01:02:17+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/12/mass-shootings-mother-jones-full-data/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>data_sets violence whats_gone_wrong_with_america re:statistics_of_muckers mass_shootings</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:b3ba69f0d2d8/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:data_sets"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:whats_gone_wrong_with_america"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:statistics_of_muckers"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mass_shootings"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105222">
    <title>Using Statistics to Assess Lethal Violence in Civil and Inter-State War | Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application</title>
    <dc:date>2019-05-26T16:53:49+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105222</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["What role can statistics play in assessing the patterns of lethal violence in conflict? This article highlights the evolution of statistical applications in assessing lethal violence, from the presentation of data in the Nuremberg trials to current questions around machine learning and training data. We present examples from work conducted by our organization, the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, and others, primarily researching killings in the context of civil wars and international conflict. The primary challenge we encounter in this work is the question of whether observed patterns of violence represent the true underlying pattern or are a reflection of reports of violence, which are subject to many sources of bias. This is where we find the foundations of twentieth-century statistics to be most important: Is this sample representative? What methods are best suited to reduce the bias in nonprobability samples? These questions lead us to the approaches presented here: multiple systems estimation, surveys, complete data, and the question of bias within training data for machine learning models. We close with memories of Steve Fienberg's influence on these questions and on us personally. “It's all inference,” he told us, and that insight informs our concerns about bias in data used to create historical memory and advance justice in the wake of mass violence."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB violence war war_crimes statistics</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:00acce442a15/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:war"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:war_crimes"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/170333">
    <title>And Now – Pittsburgh | History News Network</title>
    <dc:date>2018-11-08T02:37:12+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/170333</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>pittsburgh violence us_politics us_culture_wars have_read</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:fb52c06e0b4f/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:pittsburgh"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:us_politics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:us_culture_wars"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.charlieseguin.com/dot_map.html">
    <title>The Lynching Dot Map: One dot for every lynching victim in the US 1883-1930</title>
    <dc:date>2018-10-21T23:37:52+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.charlieseguin.com/dot_map.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[I can't decide if using this to teach about spatial point processes be good, or grossly insensitive.]]></description>
<dc:subject>the_american_dilemma violence american_history something_about_america lynching visual_display_of_quantitative_information to_teach:data_over_space_and_time via:gabriel_rossman</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:8577df6e6698/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:the_american_dilemma"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:american_history"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:something_about_america"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:lynching"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:visual_display_of_quantitative_information"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:data_over_space_and_time"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:gabriel_rossman"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520303812/deadly-quarrels?mc_cid=d39b6fa4f5&amp;mc_eid=3d88be13af">
    <title>Deadly Quarrels by David Wilkinson - Paperback - University of California Press</title>
    <dc:date>2018-10-10T19:43:19+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520303812/deadly-quarrels?mc_cid=d39b6fa4f5&amp;mc_eid=3d88be13af</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Lewis Fry Richardson was one of the first to develop the systematic study of the causes of war; yet his great war data archive, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, posthumously published, has yet to be fully systematized and assimilated by war-causation scholars. David Wilkinson has reanalyzed Richardson's data and drawn together the results of kindred quantitative work on the causes of war, from other as well as from Richardson. He has translated this classic of international relations literature into contemporary idiom, fully and accurately presenting the substance of Richardson's idea and at the same time bringing it up to date with judicious comment, updating the references to the critical and successor literature, and dealing in some detail with Richardson himself. Professor Wilkinson lists among the findings: 1. the death toll of war is largely the product of a very few immense wars; 2. most wars do not escalate out of control, they are vey likely to be small, brief, and exclusive; 3. great powers have done most of the world's fighting, inflicting and suffering most of the casualties; 4. the propensity of any two groups to fight increases as the ethnocultural differences between them increase. Contemporary peace strategy would therefore seem to be to avoid World War III by promoting superpower detente, and reanimating, accelerating, and civilizing the process of world economic development.
"This title is part of UC Press's Voices Revived program, which commemorates University of California Press’s mission to seek out and cultivate the brightest minds and give them voice, reach, and impact. Drawing on a backlist dating to 1893, Voices Revived makes high-quality, peer-reviewed scholarship accessible once again using print-on-demand technology. This title was originally published in 1980."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB violence war heavy_tails lives_of_the_scholars books:noted</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:77e247de1f8e/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:war"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:heavy_tails"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:lives_of_the_scholars"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674986800">
    <title>When Police Kill — Franklin E. Zimring | Harvard University Press</title>
    <dc:date>2018-07-31T02:21:14+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674986800</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Deaths of civilians at the hands of on-duty police are in the national spotlight as never before. How many killings by police occur annually? What circumstances provoke police to shoot to kill? Who dies? The lack of answers to these basic questions points to a crisis in American government that urgently requires the attention of policy experts. When Police Kill is a groundbreaking analysis of the use of lethal force by police in the United States and how its death toll can be reduced.
"Franklin Zimring compiles data from federal records, crowdsourced research, and investigative journalism to provide a comprehensive, fact-based picture of how, when, where, and why police resort to deadly force. Of the 1,100 killings by police in the United States in 2015, he shows, 85 percent were fatal shootings and 95 percent of victims were male. The death rates for African Americans and Native Americans are twice their share of the population.
"Civilian deaths from shootings and other police actions are vastly higher in the United States than in other developed nations, but American police also confront an unusually high risk of fatal assault. Zimring offers policy prescriptions for how federal, state, and local governments can reduce killings by police without risking the lives of officers. Criminal prosecution of police officers involved in killings is rare and only necessary in extreme cases. But clear administrative rules could save hundreds of lives without endangering police officers."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB books:noted police violence whats_gone_wrong_with_america</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:d557b5833806/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:police"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:whats_gone_wrong_with_america"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/investigations/unsolved-homicide-database/?city=pittsburgh">
    <title>Homicide database: Mapping unsolved murders in major U.S. cities - Washington Post</title>
    <dc:date>2018-06-07T02:03:13+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/investigations/unsolved-homicide-database/?city=pittsburgh</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[I've bookmarked the Pittsburgh sub-page, for teaching purposes, but the whole thing looks great (for insanely depressing values of "great').

]]></description>
<dc:subject>crime violence visual_display_of_quantitative_information to_teach:data_over_space_and_time crime_and_space</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:224b0858665e/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:crime"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:visual_display_of_quantitative_information"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:data_over_space_and_time"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:crime_and_space"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/investigations/where-murders-go-unsolved/">
    <title>Murder with Impunity: Where killings go unsolved - Washington Post</title>
    <dc:date>2018-06-07T02:01:40+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/investigations/where-murders-go-unsolved/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>crime violence police to_teach:data_over_space_and_time have_read crime_and_space</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:7be7b5f56ca7/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:crime"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:police"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:data_over_space_and_time"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:crime_and_space"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11186-018-9305-y">
    <title>Have wars and violence declined? | SpringerLink</title>
    <dc:date>2018-04-17T13:36:06+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11186-018-9305-y</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["For over 150 years liberal optimism has dominated theories of war and violence. It has been repeatedly argued that war and violence either are declining or will shortly decline. There have been exceptions, especially in Germany and more generally in the first half of the twentieth century, but there has been a recent revival of such optimism, especially in the work of Azar Gat, John Mueller, Joshua Goldstein, and Steven Pinker who all perceive a long-term decline in war and violence through history, speeding up in the post-1945 period. Critiquing Pinker’s statistics on war fatalities, I show that the overall pattern is not a decline in war, but substantial variation between periods and places. War has not declined and current trends are slightly in the opposite direction. The conventional view is that civil wars in the global South have largely replaced inter-state wars in the North, but this is misleading since there is major involvement in most civil wars by outside powers, including those of the North. There is more support for their view that homicide has declined in the long-term, at least in the North of the world (with the United States lagging somewhat). This is reinforced by technological improvements in long-distance weaponry and the two transformations have shifted war, especially in the North, from being “ferocious” to “callous” in character. This renders war less visible and less central to Northern culture, which has the deceptive appearance of being rather pacific. Viewed from the South the view has been bleaker both in the colonial period and today. Globally war and violence are not declining, but they are being transformed."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB sociology history comparative_history imperialism war violence statistics mann.michael to_teach:data_over_space_and_time</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:a12eadbbb6ef/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:sociology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:history"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:comparative_history"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:imperialism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:war"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mann.michael"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:data_over_space_and_time"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11873-014-0250-2">
    <title>Micro-sociology of mass rampage killings | SpringerLink</title>
    <dc:date>2018-02-15T22:40:32+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11873-014-0250-2</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Spectacular but very rare violent events such as mass killings by habitual non-criminals cannot be explained by factors which are very widespread, such as possession of firearms, being a victim of bullying, an introvert, or a career failure. A stronger clue is clandestine preparation of attack by one or two individuals, against randomly chosen representatives of a hated collective identity. Mass killers develop a deep back-stage, obsessed with planning their attack, overcoming social inferiority and isolation by an emotion of clandestine excitement."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB violence sociology collins.randall via:gabriel_rossman re:statistics_of_muckers mass_shootings</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:b3817326fbf5/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:sociology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:collins.randall"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:gabriel_rossman"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:statistics_of_muckers"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mass_shootings"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC181064/">
    <title>Running Amok: A Modern Perspective on a Culture-Bound Syndrome</title>
    <dc:date>2018-02-15T22:39:58+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC181064/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Running amok is considered a rare culture-bound syndrome by current psychiatric classification systems, but there is evidence that it occurs frequently in modern industrialized societies. The historical origins of running amok as a psychiatric condition are reviewed in this article, and its relevance to modern day episodes of violent behavior is discussed. Psychotic illnesses, personality disorders, and mood disorders are all possible causes of amok, and the identification and treatment of patients who are at risk for manifesting violent behavior are discussed."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB violence via:gabriel_rossman mass_shootings re:statistics_of_muckers</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:c19d41238628/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:gabriel_rossman"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mass_shootings"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:statistics_of_muckers"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2013/07/18/indonesias-happy-killers/">
    <title>Indonesia's Happy Killers | by Francine Prose | NYR Daily | The New York Review of Books</title>
    <dc:date>2018-01-30T17:02:10+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2013/07/18/indonesias-happy-killers/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>have_read the_nightmare_from_which_we_are_trying_to_awake violence indonesia cold_war moral_psychology</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:094231b2d787/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:the_nightmare_from_which_we_are_trying_to_awake"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:indonesia"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:cold_war"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:moral_psychology"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/597791">
    <title>Murder by Structure: Dominance Relations and the Social Structure of Gang Homicide: American Journal of Sociology: Vol 115, No 1</title>
    <dc:date>2017-08-26T16:54:41+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/597791</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Most sociological theories consider murder an outcome of the differential distribution of individual, neighborhood, or social characteristics. And while such studies explain variation in aggregate homicide rates, they do not explain the social order of murder, that is, who kills whom, when, where, and for what reason. This article argues that gang murder is best understood not by searching for its individual determinants but by examining the social networks of action and reaction that create it. In short, the social structure of gang murder is defined by the manner in which social networks are constructed and by people's placement in them. The author uses a network approach and incident‐level homicide records to recreate and analyze the structure of gang murders in Chicago. Findings demonstrate that individual murders between gangs create an institutionalized network of group conflict, net of any individual's participation or motive. Within this network, murders spread through an epidemic‐like process of social contagion as gangs evaluate the highly visible actions of others in their local networks and negotiate dominance considerations that arise during violent incidents."

--- Uses the same  old methods for detecting contagion as Christakis-Fowler; perhaps more plausible here?]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB have_read social_networks violence contagion social_influence sociology re:network_differences honor re:homophily_and_confounding</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:5285fbb6155d/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_networks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:contagion"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_influence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:sociology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:network_differences"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:honor"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:homophily_and_confounding"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/S/bo23044232">
    <title>The Seductions of Quantification: Measuring Human Rights, Gender Violence, and Sex Trafficking, Merry</title>
    <dc:date>2016-07-02T00:03:38+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/S/bo23044232</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["We live in a world where seemingly everything can be measured. We rely on indicators to translate social phenomena into simple, quantified terms, which in turn can be used to guide individuals, organizations, and governments in establishing policy. Yet counting things requires finding a way to make them comparable. And in the process of translating the confusion of social life into neat categories, we inevitably strip it of context and meaning—and risk hiding or distorting as much as we reveal.
"With The Seductions of Quantification, leading legal anthropologist Sally Engle Merry investigates the techniques by which information is gathered and analyzed in the production of global indicators on human rights, gender violence, and sex trafficking. Although such numbers convey an aura of objective truth and scientific validity, Merry argues persuasively that measurement systems constitute a form of power by incorporating theories about social change in their design but rarely explicitly acknowledging them. For instance, the US State Department’s Trafficking in Persons Report, which ranks countries in terms of their compliance with antitrafficking activities, assumes that prosecuting traffickers as criminals is an effective corrective strategy—overlooking cultures where women and children are frequently sold by their own families. As Merry shows, indicators are indeed seductive in their promise of providing concrete knowledge about how the world works, but they are implemented most successfully when paired with context-rich qualitative accounts grounded in local knowledge."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB books:noted social_measurement crime sexism violence</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:faa906471698/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_measurement"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:crime"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:sexism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://sup.org/books/title/?id=24505">
    <title>The Colonial Origins of Ethnic Violence in India | Ajay Verghese</title>
    <dc:date>2016-02-29T17:05:32+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://sup.org/books/title/?id=24505</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["The neighboring north Indian districts of Jaipur and Ajmer are identical in language, geography, and religious and caste demography. But when the famous Babri Mosque in Ayodhya was destroyed in 1992, Jaipur burned while Ajmer remained peaceful; when the state clashed over low-caste affirmative action quotas in 2008, Ajmer's residents rioted while Jaipur's citizens stayed calm. What explains these divergent patterns of ethnic conflict across multiethnic states? Using archival research and elite interviews in five case studies spanning north, south, and east India, as well as a quantitative analysis of 589 districts, Ajay Verghese shows that the legacies of British colonialism drive contemporary conflict.
"Because India served as a model for British colonial expansion into parts of Africa and Southeast Asia, this project links Indian ethnic conflict to violent outcomes across an array of multiethnic states, including cases as diverse as Nigeria and Malaysia. The Colonial Origins of Ethnic Violence in India makes important contributions to the study of Indian politics, ethnicity, conflict, and historical legacies."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB books:noted imperialism india violence political_science</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:bcb81dd3d247/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:imperialism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:india"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:political_science"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.euppublishing.com/doi/10.3366/shr.2015.0239">
    <title>Homicide in Eighteenth-Century Scotland: Numbers and Theories - Edinburgh University Press</title>
    <dc:date>2016-02-13T21:44:27+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.euppublishing.com/doi/10.3366/shr.2015.0239</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["The purpose of this article is to address the lacuna in our knowledge of the extent of interpersonal violence in eighteenth-century Scotland, with particular reference to homicide, and in doing so use these findings to examine the theoretical and empirical issues that have dominated historical discourse regarding this phenomenon over the last few decades. Essentially, it seeks to challenge widely held explanations for the alleged long-term decline in homicide, arguing that incidences of murder in the eighteenth century were affected more by political tensions and socio-economic dislocation than by cultural changes in taste and manners. It also criticises the methodological weaknesses evident in longitudinal studies of homicide and tries to resolve them in two ways: firstly, by adjusting the homicide rate to take account of the rises and falls in population in the period 1700–1799; and, secondly, by providing national data rather than relying on extrapolating national trends from local or regional studies. Finally, it is argued that the main assumptions of historians working in the field of homicide studies are in the light of evidence for Scotland in need of revision as data from there provide little support for a linear fall in the level of homicides, or a link with shifts in sentiment and/or taste as put forward by those influenced by the civilising theories of Norbert Elias."

--- Smoothing over time, with a generalized additive model (though only one predictor variable, so really a spline + a fancy link function).  Perhaps usable as an example.]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB to_read violence statistics early_modern_european_history the_civilizing_process scotland to_teach:undergrad-ADA</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:e462c86e385c/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:early_modern_european_history"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:the_civilizing_process"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:scotland"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:undergrad-ADA"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=23748">
    <title>Cities, Business, and the Politics of Urban Violence in Latin America | Eduardo Moncada</title>
    <dc:date>2016-01-26T00:02:43+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=23748</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["This book analyzes and explains the ways in which major developing world cities respond to the challenge of urban violence. The study shows how the political projects that cities launch to confront urban violence are shaped by the interaction between urban political economies and patterns of armed territorial control. It introduces business as a pivotal actor in the politics of urban violence, and argues that how business is organized within cities and its linkages to local governments impacts whether or not business supports or subverts state efforts to stem and prevent urban violence. A focus on city mayors finds that the degree to which politicians rely upon clientelism to secure and maintain power influences whether they favor responses to violence that perpetuate or weaken local political exclusion. The book builds a new typology of patterns of armed territorial control within cities, and shows that each poses unique challenges and opportunities for confronting urban violence. The study develops sub-national comparative analyses of puzzling variation in the institutional outcomes of the politics of urban violence across Colombia's three principal cities—Medellin, Cali, and Bogota—and over time within each. The book's main findings contribute to research on violence, crime, citizen security, urban development, and comparative political economy. The analysis demonstrates that the politics of urban violence is a powerful new lens on the broader question of who governs in major developing world cities."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB books:noted political_economy cities violence crime colombia</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:a12aa7de1cd3/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:political_economy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:cities"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:crime"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:colombia"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-great-evasion">
    <title>The Great Evasion</title>
    <dc:date>2015-10-05T18:07:17+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/the-great-evasion</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[We as a society have made our decision. Monthly high profile gun massacres are the price we are willing to pay for increasingly unregulated access to guns by virtually everyone - with minor impediments for felons and people who have been adjudicated as mentally ill. If you step back from what I grant is the sincerity of many who advocate this non-naming, the whole thing is really just clearly a joke as a way to somehow take action about the growing scourge of mass gun violence.]]></description>
<dc:subject>guns violence moral_responsibility utter_stupidity have_read to:blog</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:d76529c09f5e/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:guns"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:moral_responsibility"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:utter_stupidity"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:blog"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/distributed/B/bo22555403">
    <title>Beyond Mothers, Monsters, Whores: Thinking about Women's Violence in Global Politics, Gentry, Sjoberg</title>
    <dc:date>2015-10-03T02:57:01+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/distributed/B/bo22555403</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["When we discuss violent acts committed by women, our responses are almost always rooted in deeply gendered assumptions about women. We express surprise and shock that a woman could be capable of such an act—a reaction that relies on a long history of unspoken assumptions about what is proper behavior for a woman.
"With Beyond Mothers, Monsters, Whores, Caron Gentry and Laura Sjoberg apply the understanding afforded by that lens to individual violence in global politics. The authors begin by demonstrating the crucial interdependence of the individual and international levels of global politics in the lives of violent women—but they then show how this interdependence is inaccurately depicted, or ignored altogether, in public, political, or media discussions of women’s violence. An eye-opening exploration of a major topic in the study of global conflict and women’s lives, Beyond Mothers, Monsters, Whores will be essential for both scholars and activists."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB books:noted violence feminism</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:99cb9971fd0a/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:feminism"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://sociological-eye.blogspot.com/2012/05/drug-business-is-not-key-to-gangs-and.html">
    <title>The Sociological Eye: DRUG BUSINESS IS NOT THE KEY TO GANGS AND ORGANIZED CRIME: WITH A PROGNOSIS FOR THE MEXICAN CARTEL WARS</title>
    <dc:date>2015-02-24T17:32:16+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://sociological-eye.blogspot.com/2012/05/drug-business-is-not-key-to-gangs-and.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>have_read crime violence political_science sociology organized_crime_as_state-making institutions via:?</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:7f8de537d0e1/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:crime"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:political_science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:sociology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:organized_crime_as_state-making"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:institutions"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:?"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.pnas.org/content/111/47/16712.abstract.html?etoc">
    <title>Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on the risk of violence in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980–2012</title>
    <dc:date>2014-11-25T22:50:56+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.pnas.org/content/111/47/16712.abstract.html?etoc</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Ongoing debates in the academic community and in the public policy arena continue without clear resolution about the significance of global climate change for the risk of increased conflict. Sub-Saharan Africa is generally agreed to be the region most vulnerable to such climate impacts. Using a large database of conflict events and detailed climatological data covering the period 1980–2012, we apply a multilevel modeling technique that allows for a more nuanced understanding of a climate–conflict link than has been seen heretofore. In the aggregate, high temperature extremes are associated with more conflict; however, different types of conflict and different subregions do not show consistent relationship with temperature deviations. Precipitation deviations, both high and low, are generally not significant. The location and timing of violence are influenced less by climate anomalies (temperature or precipitation variations from normal) than by key political, economic, and geographic factors. We find important distinctions in the relationship between temperature extremes and conflict by using multiple methods of analysis and by exploiting our time-series cross-sectional dataset for disaggregated analyses."

- Last tag inspired by the supposed existence of replication R code.]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB war violence instrumental_variables social_science_methodology statistics causal_inference hierarchical_statistical_models political_science to_teach:undergrad-ADA</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:98da9e18db34/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:war"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:instrumental_variables"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_science_methodology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:causal_inference"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:hierarchical_statistical_models"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:political_science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:undergrad-ADA"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/May-2014/Chicago-crime-rates/">
    <title>The Truth About Chicago’s Crime Rates, Part 1 | Chicago magazine | May 2014</title>
    <dc:date>2014-08-25T13:57:34+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/May-2014/Chicago-crime-rates/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[The last tag is of course the least of the issues here.
(And tempting as it is to say "what gets measured gets massaged", that seems like not just a counsel of despair, but an _unfounded_ counsel of despair.)]]></description>
<dc:subject>violence chicago crime corruption juking_the_stats evidence_based social_measurement management social_science_methodology to_teach have_read bad_data_analysis to:blog</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f0b73fcbf501/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:chicago"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:crime"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:corruption"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:juking_the_stats"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:evidence_based"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_measurement"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:management"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_science_methodology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bad_data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:blog"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.104.1.123">
    <title>AER (104,1) p. 123 - Violence and Risk Preference: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan</title>
    <dc:date>2014-01-03T19:57:51+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.104.1.123</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["We investigate the relationship between violence and economic risk preferences in Afghanistan combining: (i) a two-part experimental procedure identifying risk preferences, violations of Expected Utility, and specific preferences for certainty; (ii) controlled recollection of fear based on established methods from psychology; and (iii) administrative violence data from precisely geocoded military records. We document a specific preference for certainty in violation of Expected Utility. The preference for certainty, which we term a Certainty Premium, is exacerbated by the combination of violent exposure and controlled fearful recollections. The results have implications for risk taking and are potentially actionable for policymakers and marketers."

- Presumably the geocoded administrative data is Wikileaks?]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB to_read experimental_economics decision-making violence afghanistan risk_vs_uncertainty war of_course_we_shouldn't_forget_the_marketers</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:78416a60301c/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:experimental_economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:decision-making"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:afghanistan"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_vs_uncertainty"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:war"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:of_course_we_shouldn't_forget_the_marketers"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://haquelebac.wordpress.com/2013/11/27/pekka-hamalainen-the-comanche-empire/">
    <title>The Comanche Empire | Haquelebac</title>
    <dc:date>2013-12-19T01:07:15+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://haquelebac.wordpress.com/2013/11/27/pekka-hamalainen-the-comanche-empire/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[The alternate history sketched here is one which desperately needs to be written.]]></description>
<dc:subject>american_history imperialism institutions violence economics political_economy state-building native_american_history to:blog</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:701dde5e75e8/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:american_history"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:imperialism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:institutions"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:political_economy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:state-building"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:native_american_history"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:blog"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://abandonedfootnotes.blogspot.com/2013/11/aztec-political-thought.html">
    <title>Abandoned Footnotes: Aztec Political Thought</title>
    <dc:date>2013-11-21T14:36:45+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://abandonedfootnotes.blogspot.com/2013/11/aztec-political-thought.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>ritual ideology violence history_of_ideas history_of_morals aztec_empire</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:e0fb14946023/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:ritual"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:ideology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:history_of_ideas"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:history_of_morals"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:aztec_empire"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2156234">
    <title>Forecasting Political Instability: Results from a Tournament of Methods by Jay Ulfelder :: SSRN</title>
    <dc:date>2013-08-03T03:22:18+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2156234</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["This report describes the design, and summarizes the results of, a forecasting “tournament” undertaken by the CIA-funded Political Instability Task Force in 2009–2010. The purpose of the tournament was to evaluate systematically the relative merits of several statistical techniques for forecasting various forms of political change in countries worldwide. Among other things, the tournament confirmed our belief that domain expertise and familiarity with relevant data help lead to more accurate forecasts. When knowledge of theory and data were held constant, the forecasts produced by most of the techniques we tried did not diverge by much. Unsurprisingly, this tournament also confirmed that forecasting rare forms of political instability as far as two years in advance is hard to do well. The forecasting tools the participants produced were generally quite good at discriminating high-risk cases from low-risk ones, but none was very precise."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB prediction political_science data_mining violence to_teach:data-mining to:blog have_read intelligence_(spying)</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:9a1c5cf0804b/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:political_science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:data_mining"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:data-mining"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:blog"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:intelligence_(spying)"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/47/4/363">
    <title>The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts</title>
    <dc:date>2013-05-25T14:31:48+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/47/4/363</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Large-n studies of conflict have produced a large number of statistically significant results but little accurate guidance in terms of anticipating the onset of conflict. The authors argue that too much attention has been paid to finding statistically significant relationships, while too little attention has been paid to finding variables that improve our ability to predict civil wars. The result can be a distorted view of what matters most to the onset of conflict. Although these models may not be intended to be predictive models, prescriptions based on these models are generally based on statistical significance, and the predictive attributes of the underlying models are generally ignored. These predictions should not be ignored, but rather need to be heuristically evaluated because they may shed light on the veracity of the models. In this study, the authors conduct a side-by-side comparison of the statistical significance and predictive power of the different variables used in two of the most influential models of civil war. The results provide a clear demonstration of how potentially misleading the traditional focus on statistical significance can be. Until out-of-sample heuristics — especially including predictions — are part of the normal evaluative tools in conflict research, we are unlikely to make sufficient theoretical progress beyond broad statements that point to GDP per capita and population as the major causal factors accounting for civil war onset."

- I like the phrase "gazing at the significance stars".  Also, it seems the replication files use R; this should definitely go into ADAfaEPoV, since it uses nothing the Kids won't know.]]></description>
<dc:subject>social_science_methodology p-values hypothesis_testing statistics prediction political_science violence to_teach:undergrad-ADA via:abumuqawama have_read cross-validation to_teach:data-mining logistic_regression in_NB to:blog have_taught</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:28d2152d54d5/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_science_methodology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:p-values"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:hypothesis_testing"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:political_science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:undergrad-ADA"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:abumuqawama"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:cross-validation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:data-mining"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:logistic_regression"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:blog"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_taught"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://inthesetimes.com/duly-noted/entry/14356/newtown_and_the_crisis_of_masculinity/">
    <title>Newtown and the “Crisis of Masculinity” - Duly Noted</title>
    <dc:date>2012-12-21T00:36:50+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://inthesetimes.com/duly-noted/entry/14356/newtown_and_the_crisis_of_masculinity/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Livingston argues that mass shootings are a symptom of what he calls "the crisis of American masculinity." He thinks that young men are turning to hypermasculine, militarized displays of violence because they can no longer aspire to the traditional macho role of breadwinner in an industrial economy.
"Livingston doesn't provide any evidence to support the creeping emasculation theory. He notes that William James might have predicted this particular malaise, but that doesn't count as evidence. William James said a lot of things.
"What little we know about Lanza seems at odds with Livingston's model. Lanza wasn't an unemployed blue collar worker, he was a computer wiz from a comfortable family. He had skills that are richly rewarded in this economy. James Holmes, the Aurora shooter, was a graduate student in neuroscience. Dylan Klebold was a middle class kid who was filling out college applications as he planned the Columbine massacre.
"Of the recent mass shooters, Wade Michael Page, the Sikh temple shooter comes the closest to fitting Livingston's model. He was chronically down on his luck after his dishonorable discharge from the military. Then again, he was a neo-Nazi on the Southern Poverty Law Center's radar and he targeted a religious minority at prayer, so he may not be best example of plain old thwarted masculinity leading to spree killing.
"If spree killing is a function of thwarted masculinity in a post-industrial society, why are so many of the shooters white? Men of other races are even more likely to be shut out of well-paid industrial jobs. 
"Clearly, mass shootings have something to do with toxic machismo, but Livingston's model doesn't help explain what it is."]]></description>
<dc:subject>evisceration violence whats_gone_wrong_with_america muckers sexism beyerstein.lindsay livingston.james masculinity</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:0473c21b510a/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:evisceration"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:whats_gone_wrong_with_america"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:muckers"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:sexism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:beyerstein.lindsay"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:livingston.james"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:masculinity"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://abstractfactory.blogspot.com/2012/12/are-lone-gunman-school-shootings.html">
    <title>The Abstract Factory: Are &quot;lone gunman&quot; school shootings terrorism?</title>
    <dc:date>2012-12-16T19:15:36+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://abstractfactory.blogspot.com/2012/12/are-lone-gunman-school-shootings.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>rectification_of_names terrorism terrorism_fears violence</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f4fb6a19157d/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:rectification_of_names"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:terrorism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:terrorism_fears"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://lisaschweitzer.com/2012/08/07/teachers-versus-armed-civilians-in-mass-murder-prevention/">
    <title>Teachers versus armed civilians in mass murder prevention « Urban ethics and theory</title>
    <dc:date>2012-08-08T02:59:27+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://lisaschweitzer.com/2012/08/07/teachers-versus-armed-civilians-in-mass-murder-prevention/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["AKA: why you don’t get your policy positions from internet photo memes.
"Attention conservation notice: there are no pro-gun or anti-gun stances that can be supported with these cases. However, there are some amazing teachers, coaches, and students out there. Good job, you."

Schweitzer shows amazing patience with very foolish people.  (And, because I am very much a professionally-deformed heartless intellectual, I can't help thinking about using this as a case study in class.)]]></description>
<dc:subject>guns violence causal_inference to_teach:undergrad-ADA schweitzer.lisa</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:495b1f558f67/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:guns"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:causal_inference"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:undergrad-ADA"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:schweitzer.lisa"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.theonion.com/articles/sadly-nation-knows-exactly-how-colorado-shootings,28857/">
    <title>Sadly, Nation Knows Exactly How Colorado Shooting's Aftermath Will Play Out | The Onion - America's Finest News Source</title>
    <dc:date>2012-07-22T01:15:15+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.theonion.com/articles/sadly-nation-knows-exactly-how-colorado-shootings,28857/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>funny:laughing_instead_of_screaming something_about_america crime violence</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:a7677e5be8bf/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:funny:laughing_instead_of_screaming"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:something_about_america"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:crime"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.chrisblattman.com/documents/research/2011.EconomicShocksAndConflict.pdf?9d7bd4">
    <title>“Economic Shocks and Conflict: The (Absence of?) Evidence from Commodity Prices</title>
    <dc:date>2012-02-17T17:11:47+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.chrisblattman.com/documents/research/2011.EconomicShocksAndConflict.pdf?9d7bd4</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Replication files":
http://www.chrisblattman.com/documents/data/shocks-conflict/Bazzi-Blattman.zip?9d7bd4]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB statistics to_read data_analysis economics political_economy war violence political_science blattman.chris to_teach:undergrad-ADA</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:9f6b55893ac2/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:political_economy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:war"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:political_science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:blattman.chris"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:undergrad-ADA"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://chrisblattman.com/2012/02/13/can-we-predict-local-conflict/">
    <title>Can we predict eruptions of violence? Statistics and the future of conflict early warning | Chris Blattman</title>
    <dc:date>2012-02-17T16:55:17+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://chrisblattman.com/2012/02/13/can-we-predict-local-conflict/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[I want to see the trees!!!]]></description>
<dc:subject>violence statistics political_science to_teach:data-mining to_teach:undergrad-ADA track_down_references</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:ee8f51ee5ec9/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:political_science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:data-mining"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:undergrad-ADA"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:track_down_references"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/27497/">
    <title>Mathematicians Reveal Serial Killer's Pattern of Murder  - Technology Review</title>
    <dc:date>2012-01-16T15:56:17+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/27497/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>bad_science_journalism utter_stupidity violence via:henry_farrell blogged</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:7fcb79ec2ee5/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bad_science_journalism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:utter_stupidity"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:henry_farrell"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:blogged"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://arxiv.org/abs/1201.2458">
    <title>[1201.2458] Stochastic modeling of a serial killer</title>
    <dc:date>2012-01-16T15:55:50+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://arxiv.org/abs/1201.2458</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[In a word: no.  In more words, http://bactra.org/weblog/857.html]]></description>
<dc:subject>bad_data_analysis heavy_tails gives_physicists_a_bad_name violence via:henry_farrell stochastic_processes blogged my_initial_skeptical_coloration_became_on_examination_a_permanent_stain</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:949fcd46ac1c/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bad_data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:heavy_tails"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:gives_physicists_a_bad_name"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:henry_farrell"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:stochastic_processes"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:blogged"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:my_initial_skeptical_coloration_became_on_examination_a_permanent_stain"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.bostonreview.net/BR37.1/claude_fischer_steven_pinker_better_angels_nature.php">
    <title>Boston Review — Claude S. Fischer: Not So Nasty, Brutish, and Short</title>
    <dc:date>2012-01-08T23:57:10+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.bostonreview.net/BR37.1/claude_fischer_steven_pinker_better_angels_nature.php</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Very nice

"Steven Pinker has read the reports on civilian deaths in the Afghan war, mass rapes in the Congo, “going postal” shootings in the United States, and our youths’ seeming addiction to Call of Duty video games. Yet the Harvard cognitive scientist and wildly effective popularizer of evolutionary psychology brings you the Good News: humans are now far less violent than they have ever been. In roughly 700 pages of text and many dozens of graphs, Pinker’s The Better Angels of Our Nature takes us on a long trip through millennia of brutality and sadism to arrive at a time, our time, when we ain’t going to study war—nor, for that matter, wife-beating, animal torture, or burning at the stake—no more.
Professional historians have known this news for decades; in their field, it is conventional wisdom that violence has declined over the centuries in both rate and savagery. Now Pinker brings his considerable analytical powers and rhetorical skills to tell this story to the wider public. He can be heard on NPR, seen on The Colbert Report, and read about in New York Times features. The Times’s Nicholas Kristof is ready to award The Better Angels of Our Nature a Pulitzer. Unlike the historians, many lay readers and listeners are surprised. “Really?!” Stephen Colbert asked in one of his less parodic moments. Really.
Pinker also means to deliver on the book’s subtitle, “Why Violence Has Declined.” But while his chronicle is powerfully and convincingly straightforward—rates of violence have indeed decreased—his explanations are less so. They may even undermine his campaign for a biological view of the human condition."]]></description>
<dc:subject>book_reviews sociology violence pinker.steven fischer.claude evolutionary_psychology</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:7fe39fad02f4/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:book_reviews"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:sociology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:pinker.steven"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:fischer.claude"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:evolutionary_psychology"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/tucson-shooting-memory-4874485">
    <title>Oklahoma City Bombing Memorial and Tucson Shooting Memories - Esquire</title>
    <dc:date>2011-01-16T21:09:48+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.esquire.com/blogs/politics/tucson-shooting-memory-4874485</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Not that it's not great, but WTF is this doing in _Esquire_?
]]></description>
<dc:subject>terrorism violence us_politics historical_memory via:? running_dogs_of_reaction oklahoma_city_bombing</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:3e1085a496fb/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:terrorism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:us_politics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:historical_memory"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:?"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:running_dogs_of_reaction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:oklahoma_city_bombing"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.theonion.com/articles/shooting-suspect-released-after-not-breaking-any-a,18809/">
    <title>Shooting Suspect Released After Not Breaking Any Arizona Laws | The Onion - America's Finest News Source</title>
    <dc:date>2011-01-12T22:46:29+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.theonion.com/articles/shooting-suspect-released-after-not-breaking-any-a,18809/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>funny:laughing_instead_of_screaming funny:tasteless us_politics violence</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:a5eb8b615843/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:funny:laughing_instead_of_screaming"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:funny:tasteless"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:us_politics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2011/01/11/sneak-preview-of-the-cover-of-the-stranger-this-week-created-by-dan-savage-and-aaron-huffman">
    <title>Sneak Preview of the Cover of The Stranger This Week, Created by Dan Savage and Aaron Huffman | Slog | The Stranger, Seattle's Only Newspaper</title>
    <dc:date>2011-01-12T18:20:07+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2011/01/11/sneak-preview-of-the-cover-of-the-stranger-this-week-created-by-dan-savage-and-aaron-huffman</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Sometimes, good taste is inappropriate.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>us_politics funny:laughing_instead_of_screaming assassination violence running_dogs_of_reaction via:jbdelong</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:79a5578e2d0f/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:us_politics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:funny:laughing_instead_of_screaming"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:assassination"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:running_dogs_of_reaction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:jbdelong"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://inversesquare.wordpress.com/2011/01/09/weimar-politics-in-az/">
    <title>Weimar Politics in AZ « The Inverse Square Blog</title>
    <dc:date>2011-01-10T18:38:59+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://inversesquare.wordpress.com/2011/01/09/weimar-politics-in-az/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>weimar assassination violence running_dogs_of_reaction</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:427d288480a1/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:weimar"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:assassination"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:running_dogs_of_reaction"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.csgv.org/issues-and-campaigns/guns-democracy-and-freedom/insurrection-timeline">
    <title>Insurrectionism Timeline - Coalition to Stop Gun Violence</title>
    <dc:date>2011-01-09T23:50:06+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.csgv.org/issues-and-campaigns/guns-democracy-and-freedom/insurrection-timeline</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[To be fair, without a similarly-constructed list for earlier times, this does make it hard to say whether the problem is actually getting _worse_.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>us_politics violence guns running_dogs_of_reaction psychoceramics via:? crime</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:6e0033a3ba5a/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:us_politics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:guns"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:running_dogs_of_reaction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:psychoceramics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:?"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:crime"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
</rdf:RDF>