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    <title>Pinboard (cshalizi)</title>
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    <description>recent bookmarks from cshalizi</description>
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      <rdf:Seq>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://kucharski.substack.com/p/real-signals-or-artificial-stereotypes"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://profmarkfabian.substack.com/p/airing-my-grievances-with-wellbeing"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aea3922"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://archive.org/stream/in.ernet.dli.2015.226591/2015.226591.Everybodys-Political_djvu.txt"/>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.theverge.com/2024/12/5/24313222/chatgpt-pardon-biden-bush-esquire"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiders_Georg"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2332914"/>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15366367.2017.1348108"/>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://hsm.stackexchange.com/questions/6092/when-did-error-propagation-become-prominent-in-physics/12207#12207"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://hsm.stackexchange.com/questions/12200/when-was-the-law-of-propagation-of-error-first-stated"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2020/12/20/good-enough-that-you-dont-need-statistics/"/>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://matthewlincoln.net/2015/03/21/confabulation-in-the-humanities.html"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/704080v1"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://simplystatistics.org/2019/05/29/research-quality-data-and-research-quality-databases/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://notstatschat.rbind.io/2019/06/11/confidence-intervals-not-a-very-strong-property/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2019/03/22/a-quick-and-tidy-look-at-the-2018-gss/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-tesla-autopilot-cut-crashes-40-that-was-bogus/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/01/polar-vortex-weather-forecasting-good-now/581605/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://psyarxiv.com/6fjr7"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.jstatsoft.org/article/view/v016i09"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.stat.umn.edu/geyer/5601/notes/sand.pdf"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.blog.google/products/search/making-it-easier-discover-datasets/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.cs.ubc.ca/~tmm/courses/cheat.html"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2015/1/2/humans-using-statistical-models-are-embarrassingly-bad-at-pr.html"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/21/nobody-knows-anything-about-china/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.ucpress.edu/book.php?isbn=9780520289949&amp;mc_cid=3d6dd98934&amp;mc_eid=3d88be13af"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://xkcd.com/1053/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://www.buzzfeed.com/charliewarzel/meet-the-trump-movements-post-truth-post-math-anti-nate-silv#.uyEKPd3qE"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://arxiv.org/abs/1609.00037"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.03490#"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.unido.org/en/resources/statistics/statistical-databases.html"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://datacolada.org/2014/05/01/20-we-cannot-afford-to-study-effect-size-in-the-lab/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.nicebread.de/a-comment-on-we-cannot-afford-to-study-effect-size-in-the-lab-from-the-datacolada-blog/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/June-2014/Chicago-crime-statistics/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/May-2014/Chicago-crime-rates/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2014/07/learning-about-theory-does-not-teach-people-how-to-theorize.html"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-07-22/for-ceos-correlation-between-pay-and-stock-performance-is-pretty-random"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/02/upshot/how-not-to-be-misled-by-the-jobs-report.html"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://familyinequality.wordpress.com/2014/06/17/data-stories/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.vox.com/2014/5/15/5720596/how-wall-street-recruits-so-many-insecure-ivy-league-grads"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/no-tech-adoption-is-not-speeding-up-1565326373"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://crookedtimber.org/2014/04/08/to-the-point-of-collapse-and-beyond/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://terrytao.wordpress.com/career-advice/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-the-koch-backed-political-donor-network/2014/01/05/94719296-7661-11e3-b1c5-739e63e9c9a7_graphic.html"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2014/02/10/the-network-nonsense-of-albert-laszlo-barabasi/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://journal.sjdm.org/13/131029/jdm131029.pdf"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.carlislerainey.com/compactr/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://immersion.media.mit.edu/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/8624.html"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.slate.com/articles/life/culturebox/2013/04/there_are_no_academic_jobs_and_getting_a_ph_d_will_make_you_into_a_horrible.html"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.amstat.org/awards/coxscholarship.cfm"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.cs.utexas.edu/~elie/networks.html#/sfw-reddit"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://gist.github.com/4158578"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb21/motologie/mitarbeiter_seiten/ls/storks.pdf"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://orgtheory.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/america-is-not-getting-lonlier/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/faq-the-snake-fight-portion-of-your-thesis-defense"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://chzlolcats.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/funny-cat-pictures-classic-lolcat1.jpg"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.longstoryshortpier.com/2012/05/09/clews"/>
      </rdf:Seq>
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  </channel><item rdf:about="https://kucharski.substack.com/p/real-signals-or-artificial-stereotypes">
    <title>Real signals or artificial stereotypes? - by Adam Kucharski</title>
    <dc:date>2026-05-21T16:09:03+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://kucharski.substack.com/p/real-signals-or-artificial-stereotypes</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[--- Very nice.  I can see getting a lot of use out of this example in many classes.  (Of course it would also be best complemented by subjecting _human_ content-analysts to the same protocol.)]]></description>
<dc:subject>via:kjhealy social_measurement large_language_models_(so_called) have_read to_teach to_teach:statistics_and_generative_ai</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:c3e8ce793921/</dc:identifier>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_measurement"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:large_language_models_(so_called)"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:statistics_and_generative_ai"/>
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</item>
<item rdf:about="https://profmarkfabian.substack.com/p/airing-my-grievances-with-wellbeing">
    <title>Airing my grievances with wellbeing science</title>
    <dc:date>2026-02-07T20:08:01+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://profmarkfabian.substack.com/p/airing-my-grievances-with-wellbeing</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Last tag is if I ever find myself teaching a surveys or measurement class. 
]]></description>
<dc:subject>measurement psychometrics social_measurement evisceration have_read via:? to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:fdbb6da02779/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:measurement"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:psychometrics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_measurement"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:evisceration"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:?"/>
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<item rdf:about="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aea3922">
    <title>Why AI chatbots lie to us | Science</title>
    <dc:date>2025-08-05T13:14:38+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aea3922</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["A few weeks ago, a colleague of mine needed to collect and format some data from a website, and he asked the latest version of Anthropic’s generative AI system, Claude, for help. Claude cheerfully agreed to perform the task, generated a computer program to download the data, and handed over perfectly formatted results. The only problem? My colleague immediately noticed that the data Claude delivered was entirely fabricated.
"When asked why it had made up the data, the chatbot apologized profusely, noting that the website in question didn’t provide the requested data, so instead the chatbot generated “fictional participant data” with “fake names...and results,” admitting “I should never present fabricated data as if it were scraped from actual sources.”
"I have encountered similar examples of gaslighting by AI chatbots. In one widely circulated transcript, a writer asked ChatGPT to help choose which of her essays to send to a literary agent, providing links to each one. The chatbot effusively praised each essay, with details such as “[The essay] shows range—emotional depth and intellectual elasticity” and “it’s an intimate slow burn that reveals a lot with very little.” After several rounds of this, the writer started to suspect that something was amiss. The praise was effusive, but rather generic. She asked “Wait, are you actually reading these?” ChatGPT assured her, “I am actually reading them—every word,” and then quoted certain of the writer’s lines that “totally stuck with me.” But those lines didn’t actually appear in any of the essays. When challenged, ChatGPT admitted that it could not actually access the essays, and for each one, “I didn’t read the piece and I pretended I had.”"

--- I want to make this required reading for all classes I teach going forward, but I'm depressingly convinced that it wouldn't do any good.]]></description>
<dc:subject>large_language_models_(so_called) to_teach:statistics_and_generative_ai to_teach mitchell.melanie kith_and_kin in_NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:ab902136dfe6/</dc:identifier>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mitchell.melanie"/>
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</item>
<item rdf:about="https://archive.org/stream/in.ernet.dli.2015.226591/2015.226591.Everybodys-Political_djvu.txt">
    <title>Full text of &quot;Everybodys Political Whats What&quot;</title>
    <dc:date>2025-04-30T19:03:22+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://archive.org/stream/in.ernet.dli.2015.226591/2015.226591.Everybodys-Political_djvu.txt</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[For "The Vice of Gambling and the Virtue of Insurance".  (Because many of my students are completely ignorant of how insurance works, and I'm scared to ask them what they know about gambling.)]]></description>
<dc:subject>shaw.george_bernard insurance gambling probability to_teach welfare_state</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:9b2c80f99806/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://retractionwatch.com/2015/07/21/to-our-horror-widely-reported-study-suggesting-divorce-is-more-likely-when-wives-fall-ill-gets-axed/">
    <title>“To our horror”: Widely reported study suggesting divorce is more likely when wives fall ill gets axed – Retraction Watch</title>
    <dc:date>2024-12-22T03:24:34+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://retractionwatch.com/2015/07/21/to-our-horror-widely-reported-study-suggesting-divorce-is-more-likely-when-wives-fall-ill-gets-axed/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[The first tag is a little harsh on the authors...]]></description>
<dc:subject>bad_data_analysis to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:4a289433710a/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://www.theverge.com/2024/12/5/24313222/chatgpt-pardon-biden-bush-esquire">
    <title>Stop using generative AI as a search engine - The Verge</title>
    <dc:date>2024-12-06T13:56:06+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.theverge.com/2024/12/5/24313222/chatgpt-pardon-biden-bush-esquire</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[--- The "to_teach" tags are just the courses I'm gearing up for in the next few semesters; I suspect I will be giving _this_ lesson (and having it ignored) for many years to come.]]></description>
<dc:subject>large_language_models_(so_called) to_teach to_teach:data-mining to_teach:undergrad-ADA to_teach:statistics_of_inequality_and_discrimination information_retrieval have_read via:?</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:?"/>
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<item rdf:about="https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiders_Georg">
    <title>Spiders Georg - Wikipedia</title>
    <dc:date>2024-06-10T13:11:29+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiders_Georg</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[--- Bookmarking to have a stable reference for when I use this in teaching.]]></description>
<dc:subject>statistics funny:pointed to_teach:statistics_of_inequality_and_discrimination heavy_tails to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:af1852c94ecf/</dc:identifier>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:statistics_of_inequality_and_discrimination"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:heavy_tails"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2332914">
    <title>Notes on Bias in Estimation on JSTOR</title>
    <dc:date>2023-11-30T16:21:10+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.jstor.org/stable/2332914</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>to:NB have_read jackknife to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:293c8533c77f/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:jackknife"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/ai-cant-beat-stupid">
    <title>AI Can't Beat Stupid — The New Atlantis</title>
    <dc:date>2023-09-07T15:07:17+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/ai-cant-beat-stupid</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[

"The lesson of this black comedy is not that we should dismiss the fear of AI apocalypse, but that no one, no matter how intelligent, is free from enduring the ways that other people frustrate, confound, and disappoint us. For some, recognizing this can lead us to wisdom: recognizing our limitations, calibrating our ambitions, respecting the difficulty of knowing others and ourselves. But the tuition for these lessons may be high. Coping with our flawed humanity will always involve more pain, suffering, and trouble than we want. It is a war we can never really win, however many victories we accumulate. But perhaps it is one the machines cannot win either."

--- Aelkus on AI doom scenarios is (predictably?) very, very good.]]></description>
<dc:subject>artificial_intelligence debunking rapture_for_nerds to_teach elkus.adam via:multiple to:NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:3d15bee168d5/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:artificial_intelligence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:debunking"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:rapture_for_nerds"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:elkus.adam"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:multiple"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/metrics">
    <title>Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - Metrics</title>
    <dc:date>2023-07-09T23:44:04+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/metrics</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["How Social Science Metrics Work"]]></description>
<dc:subject>funny:academic funny:because_its_true measurement social_measurement to_teach in_NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:4d02554be723/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:funny:academic"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:funny:because_its_true"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:measurement"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_measurement"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5001799/">
    <title>Is the United States Maternal Mortality Rate Increasing? Disentangling trends from measurement issues Short title: U.S. Maternal Mortality Trends - PMC</title>
    <dc:date>2023-06-15T19:00:21+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5001799/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Background: A pregnancy question was added to the U.S. standard death certificate in 2003 to improve ascertainment of maternal deaths. The delayed adoption of this question among states led to data incompatibilities, and impeded accurate trend analysis. Our objectives were to develop methods for trend analysis, and to provide an overview of U.S. maternal mortality trends from 2000–2014.
"Methods: This observational study analyzed vital statistics maternal mortality data from all U.S. states in relation to the format and year-of-adoption of the pregnancy question. Correction factors were developed to adjust data from before the standard pregnancy question was adopted, to promote accurate trend analysis. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze trends for groups of states with similar pregnancy questions.
"Results: The estimated maternal mortality rate (per 100,000 live births) for 48 states and Washington D.C. (excluding California and Texas, analyzed separately) increased by 26.6%, from 18.8 in 2000 to 23.8 in 2014. California showed a declining trend, while Texas had a sudden increase in 2011–2012. Analysis of the measurement change suggests that U.S. rates in the early 2000s were higher than previously reported.
"Discussion: Despite the United Nations Millennium Development Goal for a 75% reduction in maternal mortality by 2015, the estimated maternal mortality rate for 48 states and Washington D.C. increased from 2000–2014, while the international trend was in the opposite direction. There is a need to redouble efforts to prevent maternal deaths and improve maternity care for the 4 million U.S. women giving birth each year."

--- To teach to The Kids, with the moral being that even something that seems straightforward is really complicated, and usually a mess.

--- WTH is up with Texas?  Doubling over two years cries out "measurement issues" but they say they looked into it carefully...]]></description>
<dc:subject>have_read social_measurement demography statistics to_teach in_NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:b3ff5c1d8dde/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_measurement"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:demography"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2023.2197686">
    <title>Cross-Validation: What Does It Estimate and How Well Does It Do It?</title>
    <dc:date>2023-06-08T15:37:53+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2023.2197686</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Cross-validation is a widely used technique to estimate prediction error, but its behavior is complex and not fully understood. Ideally, one would like to think that cross-validation estimates the prediction error for the model at hand, fit to the training data. We prove that this is not the case for the linear model fit by ordinary least squares; rather it estimates the average prediction error of models fit on other unseen training sets drawn from the same population. We further show that this phenomenon occurs for most popular estimates of prediction error, including data splitting, bootstrapping, and Mallow’s $C_p$. Next, the standard confidence intervals for prediction error derived from cross-validation may have coverage far below the desired level. Because each data point is used for both training and testing, there are correlations among the measured accuracies for each fold, and so the usual estimate of variance is too small. We introduce a nested cross-validation scheme to estimate this variance more accurately, and show empirically that this modification leads to intervals with approximately correct coverage in many examples where traditional cross-validation intervals fail. Lastly, our analysis also shows that when producing confidence intervals for prediction accuracy with simple data splitting, one should not refit the model on the combined data, since this invalidates the confidence intervals."

--- (Last part is obvious, no?)]]></description>
<dc:subject>cross-validation statistics tibshirani.robert hastie.trevor to_read to_teach in_NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:92e07da3433c/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:cross-validation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:tibshirani.robert"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:hastie.trevor"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15366367.2017.1348108">
    <title>Rethinking Traditional Methods of Survey Validation: Measurement: Interdisciplinary Research and Perspectives: Vol 15, No 2</title>
    <dc:date>2023-03-24T18:54:55+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15366367.2017.1348108</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["It is commonly believed that self-report, survey-based instruments can be used to measure a wide range of psychological attributes, such as self-control, growth mindsets, and grit. Increasingly, such instruments are being used not only for basic research but also for supporting decisions regarding educational policy and accountability. The validity of such instruments is typically investigated using a classic set of methods, including the examination of reliability coefficients, factor or principal components analyses, and correlations between scores on the instrument and other variables. However, these techniques may fall short of providing the kinds of rigorous, potentially falsifying tests of relevant hypotheses commonly expected in scientific research. This point is illustrated via a series of studies in which respondents were presented with survey items deliberately constructed to be uninterpretable, but the application of the aforementioned validation procedures nonetheless returned favorable-appearing results. In part, this disconnect may be traceable to the way in which operationalist modes of thinking in the social sciences have reinforced the perception that attributes do not need to be defined independently of particular sets of testing operations. It is argued that affairs might be improved via greater attention to the manner in which definitions of psychological attributes are articulated and greater openness to treating beliefs about the existence and measurability of psychological attributes as hypotheses rather than assumptions—in other words, as beliefs potentially subject to revision."]]></description>
<dc:subject>social_measurement measurement psychometrics factor_analysis evisceration re:g_paper to_teach yes_ha_ha_ha_yes have_read in_NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:d44f2e548282/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_measurement"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:measurement"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:psychometrics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:factor_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:evisceration"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:g_paper"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:yes_ha_ha_ha_yes"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://journal.r-project.org/archive/2014/RJ-2014-023/index.html">
    <title>phaseR: An R Package for Phase Plane Analysis of Autonomous ODE Systems (Grayling, 2014)</title>
    <dc:date>2022-12-02T15:46:52+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://journal.r-project.org/archive/2014/RJ-2014-023/index.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["When modelling physical systems, analysts will frequently be confronted by differential equations which cannot be solved analytically. In this instance, numerical integration will usually be the only way forward. However, for autonomous systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) in one or two dimensions, it is possible to employ an instructive qualitative analysis foregoing this requirement, using so-called phase plane methods. Moreover, this qualitative analysis can even prove to be highly useful for systems that can be solved analytically, or will be solved numerically anyway. The package phaseR allows the user to perform such phase plane analyses: determining the stability of any equilibrium points easily, and producing informative plots."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB have_skimmed R dynamical_systems to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:a925ecd44c4a/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_skimmed"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:R"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:dynamical_systems"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://xjdp.aspi.org.au/">
    <title>Homepage: Xinjiang Data Project</title>
    <dc:date>2022-03-25T19:10:38+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://xjdp.aspi.org.au/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>data_sets xinjiang china:prc to_teach via:absfac</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:9aba9c0889fe/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:data_sets"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:xinjiang"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:china:prc"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:absfac"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://notstatschat.rbind.io/2021/03/19/phobos-and-deimos-and-public-speaking/">
    <title>Phobos and Deimos and public speaking - Biased and Inefficient</title>
    <dc:date>2021-06-01T13:43:41+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://notstatschat.rbind.io/2021/03/19/phobos-and-deimos-and-public-speaking/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["On a smaller scale, the deimos/phobos dichotomy seems relevant to training students1 to give talks in public. Some are worried in advance, but not when actually speaking; some are happy in advance but tend to fall apart at the time2; some have both problems or neither. The example from the military suggests that simple encouragement, telling people not to worry, will be unhelpful, and that a better message is “yes, you will be scared giving this talk at Big Conference, but it will still be a good talk because we’ve practiced and you know this research better than anyone, and do you want to run through it again on Thursday?”"

--- Cf.[http://bactra.org/weblog/900.html]]]></description>
<dc:subject>fear public_speaking lumley.thomas to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:d64399feb5d2/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:fear"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:public_speaking"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:lumley.thomas"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/communicating-with-data-9780198862758?cc=us&amp;lang=en#">
    <title>Communicating with Data - Paperback - Deborah Nolan; Sara Stoudt - Oxford University Press</title>
    <dc:date>2021-05-28T16:40:35+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://global.oup.com/academic/product/communicating-with-data-9780198862758?cc=us&amp;lang=en#</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Communication is a critical yet often overlooked part of data science. Communicating with Data aims to help students and researchers write about their insights in a way that is both compelling and faithful to the data. General advice on science writing is also provided, including how to distill findings into a story and organize and revise the story, and how to write clearly, concisely, and precisely. This is an excellent resource for students who want to learn how to write about scientific findings, and for instructors who are teaching a science course in communication or a course with a writing component.
"Communicating with Data consists of five parts. Part I helps the novice learn to write by reading the work of others. Part II delves into the specifics of how to describe data at a level appropriate for publication, create informative and effective visualizations, and communicate an analysis pipeline through well-written, reproducible code. Part III demonstrates how to reduce a data analysis to a compelling story and organize and write the first draft of a technical paper. Part IV addresses revision; this includes advice on writing about statistical findings in a clear and accurate way, general writing advice, and strategies for proof reading and revising. Part V offers advice about communication strategies beyond the page, which include giving talks, building a professional network, and participating in online communities. This book also provides 22 portfolio prompts that extend the guidance and examples in the earlier parts of the book and help writers build their portfolio of data communication."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB books:noted statistics writing_advice nolan.deborah to_teach books:have_suggested_to_library</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:cb7f7c89eaf7/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:writing_advice"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:nolan.deborah"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:have_suggested_to_library"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n334">
    <title>Covid-19 deaths in Africa: prospective systematic postmortem surveillance study | The BMJ</title>
    <dc:date>2021-04-12T03:46:04+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n334</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>coronavirus_pandemic_of_2019-- to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:4a024e7c45c9/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:coronavirus_pandemic_of_2019--"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://hsm.stackexchange.com/questions/6092/when-did-error-propagation-become-prominent-in-physics/12207#12207">
    <title>statistics - When did error propagation become prominent in physics? - History of Science and Mathematics Stack Exchange</title>
    <dc:date>2021-02-19T06:13:04+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://hsm.stackexchange.com/questions/6092/when-did-error-propagation-become-prominent-in-physics/12207#12207</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Your question is about when error propagation become prominent (rather than about when it first appeared). That part I can answer by saying that Raymond Birge in 1939 said that the question of how to assign an uncertainty has been discussed for decades but the subject matter of error propagation is one for which "many scientists still fail to avail themselves" and that "others frequently use the theory [of error propagation] incorrectly and thus arrive at quite misleading conclusions"."

--- I presume this explains why it was drilled into us in physics lab class (though I can't now remember if the actual lab rooms were in Birge Hall or Le Conte).]]></description>
<dc:subject>propagation_of_error history_of_statistics history_of_physics to_teach track_down_references</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f256820eaa83/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:propagation_of_error"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:history_of_statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:history_of_physics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:track_down_references"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://hsm.stackexchange.com/questions/12200/when-was-the-law-of-propagation-of-error-first-stated">
    <title>mathematics - When was the &quot;Law of Propagation of Error&quot; first stated? - History of Science and Mathematics Stack Exchange</title>
    <dc:date>2021-02-19T06:09:01+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://hsm.stackexchange.com/questions/12200/when-was-the-law-of-propagation-of-error-first-stated</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["That formula was stated (albeit in a rather different notation) and derived in section 149 of Galloway (1839, A treatise on probability, Adam and Charles Black), of which Google Books has the full text available. That work appears to be a republication as a book of an article from the 7th edition of Encyclopaedia Britannica, which was published in 1827.
"I can't be sure that that's the earliest appearance of it, but as I argued in my answer to the above-mentioned related question, it can't have appeared very much earlier, because the formula relies on a conceptual understanding of errors that was first clearly described in 1798, and an approximation method for integrals which was invented in 1774."]]></description>
<dc:subject>propagation_of_error history_of_statistics track_down_references to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:5df8520ea32e/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:propagation_of_error"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:history_of_statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:track_down_references"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2020/12/20/good-enough-that-you-dont-need-statistics/">
    <title>Good enough that you don’t need statistics? | Stats Chat</title>
    <dc:date>2020-12-21T01:57:54+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.statschat.org.nz/2020/12/20/good-enough-that-you-dont-need-statistics/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>statistics to_teach coronavirus_pandemic_of_2019-- lumley.thomas</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:a834e21fcda5/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:coronavirus_pandemic_of_2019--"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:lumley.thomas"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.statschat.org.nz/2020/04/19/counting-rare-things-is-hard/">
    <title>Counting rare things is hard « Stats Chat</title>
    <dc:date>2020-04-20T06:41:21+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.statschat.org.nz/2020/04/19/counting-rare-things-is-hard/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>coronavirus_pandemic_of_2019-- to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:46874fd1fbee/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:coronavirus_pandemic_of_2019--"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article">
    <title>Early Release - High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 - Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC</title>
    <dc:date>2020-04-11T13:44:19+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus."

--- R0=5.7 !!!]]></description>
<dc:subject>to_read epidemic_models coronavirus_pandemic_of_2019-- to_teach via:?</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:790d22f7a803/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:epidemic_models"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:coronavirus_pandemic_of_2019--"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:?"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://matthewlincoln.net/2015/03/21/confabulation-in-the-humanities.html">
    <title>Confabulation in the humanities - Matthew Lincoln, PhD</title>
    <dc:date>2019-08-15T19:51:55+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://matthewlincoln.net/2015/03/21/confabulation-in-the-humanities.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Now, realize that this doesn't _just_ apply to interpreting quantitative analyses, but also to more traditionally-humanistic explanations...]]></description>
<dc:subject>data_analysis humanities everything_is_obvious_once_you_know_the_answer to_teach via:? have_read</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:19823c3df5de/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:humanities"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:everything_is_obvious_once_you_know_the_answer"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:?"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/704080v1">
    <title>Supercentenarians and the oldest-old are concentrated into regions with no birth certificates and short lifespans | bioRxiv</title>
    <dc:date>2019-08-07T16:15:55+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/704080v1</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["The observation of individuals attaining remarkable ages, and their concentration into geographic sub-regions or ‘blue zones’, has generated considerable scientific interest. Proposed drivers of remarkable longevity include high vegetable intake, strong social connections, and genetic markers. Here, we reveal new predictors of remarkable longevity and ‘supercentenarian’ status. In the United States, supercentenarian status is predicted by the absence of vital registration. The state-specific introduction of birth certificates is associated with a 69-82% fall in the number of supercentenarian records. In Italy, which has more uniform vital registration, remarkable longevity is instead predicted by low per capita incomes and a short life expectancy. Finally, the designated ‘blue zones’ of Sardinia, Okinawa, and Ikaria corresponded to regions with low incomes, low literacy, high crime rate and short life expectancy relative to their national average. As such, relative poverty and short lifespan constitute unexpected predictors of centenarian and supercentenarian status, and support a primary role of fraud and error in generating remarkable human age records."

--- This is a lovely little case study.]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB data_collection demography bureaucracy statistics to_teach via:kjhealy have_read fraud</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:99d8b706d217/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:data_collection"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:demography"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bureaucracy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:kjhealy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:fraud"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://simplystatistics.org/2019/05/29/research-quality-data-and-research-quality-databases/">
    <title>Research quality data and research quality databases · Simply Statistics</title>
    <dc:date>2019-06-19T16:00:52+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://simplystatistics.org/2019/05/29/research-quality-data-and-research-quality-databases/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>data_cleaning statistics to_teach to_teach:undergrad-research</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:20268e1ceebf/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:data_cleaning"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:undergrad-research"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://notstatschat.rbind.io/2019/06/11/confidence-intervals-not-a-very-strong-property/">
    <title>Confidence intervals: not a very strong property - Biased and Inefficient</title>
    <dc:date>2019-06-15T17:04:01+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://notstatschat.rbind.io/2019/06/11/confidence-intervals-not-a-very-strong-property/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Cute.  (The "Gygax intervals" in paragraph 2 are what I use in teaching to say that coverage, while essential, isn't _enough_.)]]></description>
<dc:subject>statistics confidence_sets lumley.thomas to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:aa4a3c9c0097/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:confidence_sets"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:lumley.thomas"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2019/03/22/a-quick-and-tidy-look-at-the-2018-gss/">
    <title>A Quick and Tidy Look at the 2018 GSS</title>
    <dc:date>2019-03-26T22:30:09+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2019/03/22/a-quick-and-tidy-look-at-the-2018-gss/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Where by "to_teach" I mean "to work through myself".]]></description>
<dc:subject>R visual_display_of_quantitative_information to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:2d414ea6cf1b/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:R"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:visual_display_of_quantitative_information"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-tesla-autopilot-cut-crashes-40-that-was-bogus/">
    <title>In 2017, the feds said Tesla Autopilot cut crashes 40%—that was bogus | Ars Technica</title>
    <dc:date>2019-02-14T17:36:01+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-tesla-autopilot-cut-crashes-40-that-was-bogus/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Unfortunately, the mistake here is so bald that it'd be hard to turn into a good teaching example.]]></description>
<dc:subject>bad_data_analysis to_teach driverless_cars</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:48b7a848a430/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bad_data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:driverless_cars"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/01/polar-vortex-weather-forecasting-good-now/581605/">
    <title>Polar Vortex 2019: Why Forecasts Are So Accurate Now - The Atlantic</title>
    <dc:date>2019-02-04T03:08:05+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/01/polar-vortex-weather-forecasting-good-now/581605/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Actually teaching this would mean learning a lot about the history & current state of weather forecasting...]]></description>
<dc:subject>prediction meteorology to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:dea40a02aa4a/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:meteorology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://psyarxiv.com/6fjr7">
    <title>PsyArXiv Preprints | Do smartphone usage scales predict behaviour?</title>
    <dc:date>2018-12-09T14:43:21+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://psyarxiv.com/6fjr7</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Understanding how people use technology remains important, particularly when measuring the impact this might have on individuals and society. However, despite recent methodological advances in portable computing and the ability to record digital traces of behaviour, research concerning smartphone use overwhelmingly relies on self-reported assessments, which have yet to convincingly demonstrate an ability to predict objective behaviour. Here, and for the first time, we compare a variety of smartphone use and ‘addiction’ scales with objective behaviours derived from Apple’s Screen Time application. While correlations between psychometric scales and objective behaviour are generally poor, measures that attempt to frame technology use as habitual rather than ‘addictive’ correlate more favourably with subsequent behaviour. We conclude that existing self-report instruments are unlikely to be sensitive enough to accurately predict basic technology use related behaviours. As a result, conclusions regarding the psychological impact of technology are unreliable when relying solely on these measures to quantify typical usage."

--- Tagged "to teach" because this is a great example of the actual foundations of statistics (namely, knowing where the numbers came from and what they mean), but I don't know what class I'd teach this in.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB to_read networked_life social_measurement psychometrics to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:0c8f537627b5/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:networked_life"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_measurement"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:psychometrics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.jstatsoft.org/article/view/v016i09">
    <title>Object-oriented Computation of Sandwich Estimators | Zeileis | Journal of Statistical Software</title>
    <dc:date>2018-10-26T04:32:52+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.jstatsoft.org/article/view/v016i09</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Sandwich covariance matrix estimators are a popular tool in applied regression modeling for performing inference that is robust to certain types of model misspecification. Suitable implementations are available in the R system for statistical computing for certain model fitting functions only (in particular lm()), but not for other standard regression functions, such as glm(), nls(), or survreg(). Therefore, conceptual tools and their translation to computational tools in the package sandwich are discussed, enabling the computation of sandwich estimators in general parametric models. Object orientation can be achieved by providing a few extractor functions' most importantly for the empirical estimating functions' from which various types of sandwich estimators can be computed."
]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB computational_statistics R estimation regression statistics to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:3e85d23b7b4f/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:computational_statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:R"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:estimation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:regression"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.stat.umn.edu/geyer/5601/notes/sand.pdf">
    <title>5601 Notes: The Sandwich Estimator</title>
    <dc:date>2018-10-26T04:25:40+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.stat.umn.edu/geyer/5601/notes/sand.pdf</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[I believe the subscript in n inside the sums defining V_n and J_n should be i.  Otherwise, this is terrific (unsurprisingly).]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB to_teach have_read statistics estimation fisher_information misspecification geyer.charles re:HEAS</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:4dfb54a8de30/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:estimation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:fisher_information"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:misspecification"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:geyer.charles"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:HEAS"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.blog.google/products/search/making-it-easier-discover-datasets/">
    <title>Making it easier to discover datasets</title>
    <dc:date>2018-09-19T15:25:38+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.blog.google/products/search/making-it-easier-discover-datasets/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Data set search; not sure how well it really works yet (or how long it will live, before Google breaks it.  [Why, yes, I am still bitter about Reader.])]]></description>
<dc:subject>data_sets to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:af585e9ae47c/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:data_sets"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.cs.ubc.ca/~tmm/courses/cheat.html">
    <title>Cheating: The List Of Things I Never Want To Hear Again</title>
    <dc:date>2018-09-14T03:15:32+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.cs.ubc.ca/~tmm/courses/cheat.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>academia teaching cheating to_teach via:?</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:329dc4b938b5/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:academia"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:teaching"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:cheating"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:?"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2015/1/2/humans-using-statistical-models-are-embarrassingly-bad-at-pr.html">
    <title>cultural cognition project - Cultural Cognition Blog - Humans using statistical models are embarrassingly bad at predicting Supreme Court decisions....</title>
    <dc:date>2018-09-08T13:54:06+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2015/1/2/humans-using-statistical-models-are-embarrassingly-bad-at-pr.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Ouch.  This would make a great teaching example, if replication data is available.]]></description>
<dc:subject>track_down_references classifiers law evisceration to_teach kahan.dan</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:69b883a69a5d/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:track_down_references"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:classifiers"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:law"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:evisceration"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:kahan.dan"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/21/nobody-knows-anything-about-china/">
    <title>Nobody Knows Anything About China – Foreign Policy</title>
    <dc:date>2018-03-22T20:40:24+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/21/nobody-knows-anything-about-china/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["The government’s solution to this is an increasing faith in big data, a belief that by circumventing lower-level officials it can gather information directly from the source. Huge amounts of money are being poured into big data, including efforts at predictive policing and the widespread monitoring of dissidents. The government requires Chinese firms, and foreign firms with a Chinese presence, such as Apple, to store and hand over data on a vast scale. But big data itself is prone to systematic distortions, misplaced trust, and the oldest rule of coding: garbage in, garbage out.
"As the economist Josiah Stamp recounted of another power trying to control a vast territory through oppressive means, “The Government [of British India] are very keen on amassing statistics—they collect them, add them, raise them to the nth power, take the cube root and prepare wonderful diagrams. But you must never forget that every one of these figures comes in the first instance from the chowty dar (village watchman), who just puts down what he damn pleases.” Will technology let the Chinese government today do any better? We don’t know."]]></description>
<dc:subject>china:prc have_read to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:a3772a8e1fa6/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:china:prc"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.ucpress.edu/book.php?isbn=9780520289949&amp;mc_cid=3d6dd98934&amp;mc_eid=3d88be13af">
    <title>Principles of Data Management and Presentation - John P. Hoffmann - Paperback - University of California Press</title>
    <dc:date>2017-08-08T16:42:33+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.ucpress.edu/book.php?isbn=9780520289949&amp;mc_cid=3d6dd98934&amp;mc_eid=3d88be13af</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["The world is saturated with data. We are regularly presented with data in words, tables, and graphics. Students from many academic fields are now expected to be educated about data in one form or another. Yet the typical sequence of courses—introductory statistics and research methods—does not provide sufficient information about how to focus in on a research question, how to access data and work with datasets, or how to present data to various audiences.
"Principles of Data Management and Presentation addresses this gap. Assuming only that students have some familiarity with basic statistics and research methods, it provides a comprehensive set of principles for understanding and using data as part of a research project, including:
"• how to narrow a research topic to a specific research question
"• how to access and organize data that are useful for answering a research question
"• how to use software such as Stata, SPSS, and SAS to manage data
"• how to present data so that they convey a clear and effective message
 "A companion website includes material to enhance the learning experience—specifically statistical software code and the datasets used in the examples, in text format as well as Stata, SPSS, and SAS formats. "

--- The appearance of a radar plot on the cover is not a good sign, but ...]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB books:noted data_analysis to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:663fbd009f26/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://xkcd.com/1053/">
    <title>xkcd: Ten Thousand</title>
    <dc:date>2017-07-19T20:02:39+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://xkcd.com/1053/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>funny:geeky moral_psychology to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:5bdd2d16bb02/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:funny:geeky"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:moral_psychology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.buzzfeed.com/charliewarzel/meet-the-trump-movements-post-truth-post-math-anti-nate-silv#.uyEKPd3qE">
    <title>FiveThirtyHate: Meet The Trump Movement's Post-Truth, Post-Math Anti-Nate Silver - BuzzFeed News</title>
    <dc:date>2016-10-25T15:47:15+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.buzzfeed.com/charliewarzel/meet-the-trump-movements-post-truth-post-math-anti-nate-silv#.uyEKPd3qE</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>epidemiology_of_representations psychoceramics statistics surveys to_teach us_politics re:democratic_cognition</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:dc57378cb24f/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:epidemiology_of_representations"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:psychoceramics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:surveys"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:us_politics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:democratic_cognition"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://arxiv.org/abs/1609.00037">
    <title>[1609.00037] Good Enough Practices in Scientific Computing</title>
    <dc:date>2016-09-07T18:28:27+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://arxiv.org/abs/1609.00037</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["We present a set of computing tools and techniques that every researcher can and should adopt. These recommendations synthesize inspiration from our own work, from the experiences of the thousands of people who have taken part in Software Carpentry and Data Carpentry workshops over the past six years, and from a variety of other guides. Unlike some other guides, our recommendations are aimed specifically at people who are new to research computing."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB to_teach:statcomp to_teach scientific_computing have_read to:blog</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:8fbb0ef901b6/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:statcomp"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:scientific_computing"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:blog"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.03490#">
    <title>[1606.03490] The Mythos of Model Interpretability</title>
    <dc:date>2016-07-05T14:02:28+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.03490#</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Supervised machine learning models boast remarkable predictive capabilities. But can you trust your model? Will it work in deployment? What else can it tell you about the world? We want models to be not only good, but interpretable. And yet the task of interpretation appears underspecified. Papers provide diverse and sometimes non-overlapping motivations for interpretability, and offer myriad notions of what attributes render models interpretable. Despite this ambiguity, many papers proclaim interpretability axiomatically, absent further explanation. In this paper, we seek to refine the discourse on interpretability. First, we examine the motivations underlying interest in interpretability, finding them to be diverse and occasionally discordant. Then, we address model properties and techniques thought to confer interpretability, identifying transparency to humans and post-hoc explanations as competing notions. Throughout, we discuss the feasibility and desirability of different notions, and question the oft-made assertions that linear models are interpretable and that deep neural networks are not."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB data_mining statistics modeling via:vaguery to_teach color_me_skeptical</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:536917692927/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:data_mining"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:modeling"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:vaguery"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:color_me_skeptical"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.unido.org/en/resources/statistics/statistical-databases.html">
    <title>Statistical Databases: UNIDO</title>
    <dc:date>2015-01-15T23:14:32+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.unido.org/en/resources/statistics/statistical-databases.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[These would make for great problem sets, but I'd have to get one of the "secondary dissemination" licenses, and those seem to start at 800 euros!  Yowza.  Maybe if I ever have unspent funds at the end of a grant...]]></description>
<dc:subject>data_sets economics to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:ff7eb93c297f/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:data_sets"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://datacolada.org/2014/05/01/20-we-cannot-afford-to-study-effect-size-in-the-lab/">
    <title>Data Colada | [20] We cannot afford to study effect size in the lab</title>
    <dc:date>2014-09-18T01:05:32+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://datacolada.org/2014/05/01/20-we-cannot-afford-to-study-effect-size-in-the-lab/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>statistics data_analysis psychology experimental_psychology estimation to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:422078f0deba/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:psychology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:experimental_psychology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:estimation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.nicebread.de/a-comment-on-we-cannot-afford-to-study-effect-size-in-the-lab-from-the-datacolada-blog/">
    <title>Felix Schönbrodt's website</title>
    <dc:date>2014-09-18T01:05:19+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.nicebread.de/a-comment-on-we-cannot-afford-to-study-effect-size-in-the-lab-from-the-datacolada-blog/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>statistics data_analysis psychology experimental_psychology estimation to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:7272d0a3931b/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:psychology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:experimental_psychology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:estimation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/June-2014/Chicago-crime-statistics/">
    <title>The Truth About Chicago’s Crime Rates: Part 2 | Chicago magazine | June 2014</title>
    <dc:date>2014-08-26T18:10:21+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/June-2014/Chicago-crime-statistics/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>crime juking_the_stats evidence_based chicago social_measurement social_science_methodology bad_data_analysis to_teach to:blog</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:6238d6ca8d21/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:crime"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:juking_the_stats"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:evidence_based"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:chicago"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_measurement"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_science_methodology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bad_data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:blog"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/May-2014/Chicago-crime-rates/">
    <title>The Truth About Chicago’s Crime Rates, Part 1 | Chicago magazine | May 2014</title>
    <dc:date>2014-08-25T13:57:34+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/May-2014/Chicago-crime-rates/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[The last tag is of course the least of the issues here.
(And tempting as it is to say "what gets measured gets massaged", that seems like not just a counsel of despair, but an _unfounded_ counsel of despair.)]]></description>
<dc:subject>violence chicago crime corruption juking_the_stats evidence_based social_measurement management social_science_methodology to_teach have_read bad_data_analysis to:blog</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f0b73fcbf501/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:violence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:chicago"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:crime"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:corruption"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:juking_the_stats"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:evidence_based"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_measurement"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:management"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_science_methodology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bad_data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:blog"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2014/07/learning-about-theory-does-not-teach-people-how-to-theorize.html">
    <title>Worthwhile Canadian Initiative: Learning about theory does not teach people how to theorize</title>
    <dc:date>2014-07-27T14:46:05+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2014/07/learning-about-theory-does-not-teach-people-how-to-theorize.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Likewise, learning about statistical methods doesn't teach people to design them, or select them...]]></description>
<dc:subject>theorizing economics education to_teach social_science_methodology art_of_conjecture to:blog</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:6f3c92f6157f/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:theorizing"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:education"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_science_methodology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:art_of_conjecture"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:blog"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-07-22/for-ceos-correlation-between-pay-and-stock-performance-is-pretty-random">
    <title>For CEOs, Correlation Between Pay and Stock Performance Is Pretty Random - Businessweek</title>
    <dc:date>2014-07-25T03:19:04+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-07-22/for-ceos-correlation-between-pay-and-stock-performance-is-pretty-random</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[While I agree with the conclusion, I really have to poke holes in this.  At the very least, it makes little sense to aggregate over industries this way.  (A few years ago, you could have put an orangutan in charge of a commodities company and it would have made money.)  And: what if each CEO were paid exactly what they were worth to the company, but there was inevitably a substantial amount of noise in stock returns because of circumstances beyond their control --- what would this plot look like?]]></description>
<dc:subject>economics corporations corporate_governance why_corporations_are_messed_up finance to_teach via:mejn have_read bad_data_analysis</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:47abe93c8a64/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:corporations"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:corporate_governance"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:why_corporations_are_messed_up"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:finance"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:mejn"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bad_data_analysis"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/02/upshot/how-not-to-be-misled-by-the-jobs-report.html">
    <title>How Not to Be Misled by the Jobs Report - NYTimes.com</title>
    <dc:date>2014-07-12T01:50:05+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/02/upshot/how-not-to-be-misled-by-the-jobs-report.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[This is an awesome demonstration.]]></description>
<dc:subject>statistics data_analysis via:civilstat to_teach why_oh_why_cant_we_have_a_better_press_corps to:blog</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:51b39a535303/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:civilstat"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:why_oh_why_cant_we_have_a_better_press_corps"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:blog"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://familyinequality.wordpress.com/2014/06/17/data-stories/">
    <title>Deciphering a well-told data story, cars are good for kids edition | Family Inequality</title>
    <dc:date>2014-06-17T13:03:11+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://familyinequality.wordpress.com/2014/06/17/data-stories/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>bad_data_analysis why_oh_why_cant_we_have_a_better_press_corps why_oh_why_cant_we_have_a_better_intelligentsia journalism natural_history_of_truthiness to_teach via:ariddell</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:059173e0f5a8/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bad_data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:why_oh_why_cant_we_have_a_better_press_corps"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:why_oh_why_cant_we_have_a_better_intelligentsia"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:journalism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:natural_history_of_truthiness"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:ariddell"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.vox.com/2014/5/15/5720596/how-wall-street-recruits-so-many-insecure-ivy-league-grads">
    <title>How Wall Street recruits so many insecure Ivy League grads - Vox</title>
    <dc:date>2014-05-30T03:33:38+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.vox.com/2014/5/15/5720596/how-wall-street-recruits-so-many-insecure-ivy-league-grads</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>financial_markets our_decrepit_institutions class_struggles_in_america to_teach have_read</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:23ee3d123368/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financial_markets"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:our_decrepit_institutions"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:class_struggles_in_america"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/no-tech-adoption-is-not-speeding-up-1565326373">
    <title>No, Tech Adoption Is Not Speeding Up</title>
    <dc:date>2014-04-21T20:30:59+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/no-tech-adoption-is-not-speeding-up-1565326373</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>bad_data_analysis evisceration diffusion_of_innovations technological_change inequality the_wired_ideology to_teach the_present_before_it_was_widely_distributed to:blog</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:64466ea10cdb/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bad_data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:evisceration"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:diffusion_of_innovations"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:technological_change"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:inequality"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:the_wired_ideology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:the_present_before_it_was_widely_distributed"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:blog"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://crookedtimber.org/2014/04/08/to-the-point-of-collapse-and-beyond/">
    <title>To the point of collapse, and beyond — Crooked Timber</title>
    <dc:date>2014-04-09T14:13:36+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://crookedtimber.org/2014/04/08/to-the-point-of-collapse-and-beyond/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>exhaustion history_of_morals labor moral_psychology to_teach professionalism_as_an_asceticism to:blog</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:3a1c1cb33cc4/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:exhaustion"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:history_of_morals"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:labor"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:moral_psychology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:professionalism_as_an_asceticism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:blog"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://terrytao.wordpress.com/career-advice/">
    <title>Career advice | What's new</title>
    <dc:date>2014-04-08T16:35:44+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://terrytao.wordpress.com/career-advice/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>education mathematics tao.terence to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:3bfec5ffa970/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:education"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mathematics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:tao.terence"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-the-koch-backed-political-donor-network/2014/01/05/94719296-7661-11e3-b1c5-739e63e9c9a7_graphic.html">
    <title>Inside the $400-million political network backed by the Kochs - The Washington Post</title>
    <dc:date>2014-02-24T21:55:36+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-the-koch-backed-political-donor-network/2014/01/05/94719296-7661-11e3-b1c5-739e63e9c9a7_graphic.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>track_down_references to_teach us_politics campaign_finance network_data_analysis political_networks to:blog</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:897808ace1d8/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:track_down_references"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:us_politics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:campaign_finance"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:network_data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:political_networks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:blog"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2014/02/10/the-network-nonsense-of-albert-laszlo-barabasi/">
    <title>The network nonsense of Albert-László Barabási | Bits of DNA</title>
    <dc:date>2014-02-19T02:52:53+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2014/02/10/the-network-nonsense-of-albert-laszlo-barabasi/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Dear, dear me.]]></description>
<dc:subject>evisceration network_data_analysis bad_science barabasi.albert-laszlo linear_algebra why_oh_why_cant_we_have_a_better_academic_publishing_system to_teach have_read</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:08b39e7c7256/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:evisceration"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:network_data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bad_science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:barabasi.albert-laszlo"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:linear_algebra"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:why_oh_why_cant_we_have_a_better_academic_publishing_system"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://journal.sjdm.org/13/131029/jdm131029.pdf">
    <title>Lay understanding of probability distributions</title>
    <dc:date>2014-02-03T02:10:40+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://journal.sjdm.org/13/131029/jdm131029.pdf</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["How accurate are laypeople’s intuitions about probability distributions of events? The economic and psychological literatures provide opposing answers. A classical economic view assumes that ordinary decision makers consult perfect expectations, while recent psychological research has emphasized biases in perceptions. In this work, we test laypeople’s intuitions about probability distributions. To establish a ground truth against which accuracy can be assessed, we control the information seen by each subject to establish unambiguous normative answers. We find that laypeople’s statistical intuitions can be highly accurate, and depend strongly upon the elicitation method used. In particular, we find that eliciting an entire distribution from a respondent using a graphical interface, and then computing simple statistics (such as means, fractiles, and confidence intervals) on this distribution, leads to greater accuracy, on both the individual and aggregate level, than the standard method of asking about the same statistics directly."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB cognitive_science statistics cognitive_biases to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:4ca61d858ca4/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:cognitive_science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:cognitive_biases"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.carlislerainey.com/compactr/">
    <title>compactr | Carlisle Rainey</title>
    <dc:date>2013-07-24T12:15:46+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.carlislerainey.com/compactr/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>R visual_display_of_quantitative_information to_teach via:kjhealy</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:39ef03660cf2/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:R"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:visual_display_of_quantitative_information"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:kjhealy"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://immersion.media.mit.edu/">
    <title>Immersion: a people-centric view of your email life</title>
    <dc:date>2013-07-09T21:17:23+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://immersion.media.mit.edu/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>social_networks network_data_analysis networked_life visual_display_of_quantitative_information to_teach via:?</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:27072bfac402/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_networks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:network_data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:networked_life"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:visual_display_of_quantitative_information"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:?"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/8624.html">
    <title>Bryant, J. and Sangwin, C.: How Round Is Your Circle? Where Engineering and Mathematics Meet.</title>
    <dc:date>2013-05-10T21:29:58+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://press.princeton.edu/titles/8624.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["How do you draw a straight line? How do you determine if a circle is really round? These may sound like simple or even trivial mathematical problems, but to an engineer the answers can mean the difference between success and failure. How Round Is Your Circle? invites readers to explore many of the same fundamental questions that working engineers deal with every day--it's challenging, hands-on, and fun.
"John Bryant and Chris Sangwin illustrate how physical models are created from abstract mathematical ones. Using elementary geometry and trigonometry, they guide readers through paper-and-pencil reconstructions of mathematical problems and show them how to construct actual physical models themselves--directions included. It's an effective and entertaining way to explain how applied mathematics and engineering work together to solve problems, everything from keeping a piston aligned in its cylinder to ensuring that automotive driveshafts rotate smoothly. Intriguingly, checking the roundness of a manufactured object is trickier than one might think. When does the width of a saw blade affect an engineer's calculations--or, for that matter, the width of a physical line? When does a measurement need to be exact and when will an approximation suffice? Bryant and Sangwin tackle questions like these and enliven their discussions with many fascinating highlights from engineering history. Generously illustrated, How Round Is Your Circle? reveals some of the hidden complexities in everyday things."]]></description>
<dc:subject>books:noted approximation geometry engineering modeling to_teach books:owned</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:9b2ded06b1c9/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:approximation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:geometry"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:engineering"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:modeling"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:owned"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.slate.com/articles/life/culturebox/2013/04/there_are_no_academic_jobs_and_getting_a_ph_d_will_make_you_into_a_horrible.html">
    <title>There are no academic jobs and getting a Ph.D. will make you into a horrible person: A jeremiad. - Slate Magazine</title>
    <dc:date>2013-04-05T20:24:32+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.slate.com/articles/life/culturebox/2013/04/there_are_no_academic_jobs_and_getting_a_ph_d_will_make_you_into_a_horrible.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Via a colleague I'd perhaps better not name.]]></description>
<dc:subject>education academia humanities to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:1472512aa98c/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:education"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:academia"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:humanities"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.amstat.org/awards/coxscholarship.cfm">
    <title>Gertrude M. Cox Scholarship</title>
    <dc:date>2013-03-29T18:08:52+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.amstat.org/awards/coxscholarship.cfm</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Purpose and History
"The Gertrude M. Cox Scholarship was established in 1989 to encourage more women to enter statistically oriented professions.
"Selection Criteria
"Application is limited to women who are citizens or permanent residents of the United States or Canada and who are admitted to full-time study in a graduate statistics program by July 1 of the award year. Women in or entering the early stages of graduate training (MS or PhD) are especially encouraged to apply."]]></description>
<dc:subject>scholarships statistics to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:abd12b99756f/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:scholarships"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.cs.utexas.edu/~elie/networks.html#/sfw-reddit">
    <title>Hidden Communities</title>
    <dc:date>2012-12-13T23:19:52+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.cs.utexas.edu/~elie/networks.html#/sfw-reddit</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Social networks like Facebook, LinkedIn, and MySpace, where the relationships between users are explicit, have been mined to death. But social communities like Reddit, StackExchange, Hacker News and SomethingAwful have barely been mined at all. I'm working on a project to try to predict social cascades - when new memes are going to spread, and where they are going to go. But inference on graphs is hard! 
"To limit the difficulty, we can reduce the number of edges in the graph, and only look at the important ones. But what are important edges? 
"Time to SCRAPE ALL THE THINGS! I wrote scrapers for Reddit (using their awesome API) SomethingAwful (using BeautifulSoup!) and StackExchange (well, actually I used the dataset they so kindly released). For Reddit and SomethingAwful, I made a huge adjacency matrix that showed how many users posting in each forum had also recently posted in another forum. StackExchange has public member subscriptions, and Wes made a matrix from that. 
The first ideas for meaningful matrices failed. The default subreddits, the content-aggregating forums, and StackOverflow were so overrepresented in terms of sheer numbers that it was nearly impossible to see anything else for the noise. There are 50! = 3.0414093e+64 connections between 50 different sites. Our solution? Finding the sites with a reasonable number of subscribers (to eliminate flukes) with connections several standard deviations above the norm of the strength of a standard connection. "]]></description>
<dc:subject>network_data_analysis networks social_media to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:ffdb2514a4e2/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:network_data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:networks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_media"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://gist.github.com/4158578">
    <title>Mathematics: What do grad students in math do all day? — Gist</title>
    <dc:date>2012-11-29T18:28:51+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://gist.github.com/4158578</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Actually, this is not just math but all forms of theoretical science.]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:blog to_teach mathematics research education via:unfogged</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:4b43d0c1e496/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:blog"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mathematics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:research"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:education"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:unfogged"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb21/motologie/mitarbeiter_seiten/ls/storks.pdf">
    <title>Storks Deliver Babies (p = 0.008)</title>
    <dc:date>2012-10-11T21:38:22+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.uni-marburg.de/fb21/motologie/mitarbeiter_seiten/ls/storks.pdf</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["This article shows that a highly statistically significant correlation exists between stork populations and human birth rates across Europe. While storks may not deliver babies, unthinking interpretation of correlation and p-values can certainly deliver unreliable conclusions."]]></description>
<dc:subject>funny:geeky funny:malicious statistics regression bad_data_analysis birds to_teach via:tslumley</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:84911b40c767/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:funny:geeky"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:funny:malicious"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:regression"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bad_data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:birds"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:tslumley"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://orgtheory.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/america-is-not-getting-lonlier/">
    <title>america is not getting lonelier « orgtheory.net</title>
    <dc:date>2012-09-05T12:03:59+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://orgtheory.wordpress.com/2012/09/03/america-is-not-getting-lonlier/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Yikes.]]></description>
<dc:subject>statistics sociology social_networks bad_data_analysis ok_surprisingly_fragile_data_analysis to_teach track_down_references surveys via:phnk</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:e19515af7ee9/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:sociology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_networks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bad_data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:ok_surprisingly_fragile_data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:track_down_references"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:surveys"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:phnk"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/faq-the-snake-fight-portion-of-your-thesis-defense">
    <title>McSweeney’s Internet Tendency: FAQ: The “Snake Fight” Portion Of Your Thesis Defense.</title>
    <dc:date>2012-07-06T01:36:22+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/faq-the-snake-fight-portion-of-your-thesis-defense</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Q: When and where do I fight the snake? Does the school have some kind of pit or arena for snake fights?
"A: You fight the snake in the room you have reserved for your defense. The fight generally starts after you have finished answering questions about your thesis. However, the snake will be lurking in the room the whole time and it can strike at any point. If the snake attacks prematurely it’s obviously better to defeat it and get back to the rest of your defense as quickly as possible."

--- Have I really not bookmarked this before?
]]></description>
<dc:subject>funny:geeky snakes academia to_teach funny:academic thesis_defense</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:64994b8a4b88/</dc:identifier>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:academia"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:funny:academic"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:thesis_defense"/>
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</item>
<item rdf:about="http://chzlolcats.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/funny-cat-pictures-classic-lolcat1.jpg">
    <title>funny-cat-pictures-classic-lolcat1.jpg 500×375 pixels</title>
    <dc:date>2012-07-05T16:43:49+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://chzlolcats.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/funny-cat-pictures-classic-lolcat1.jpg</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Half of undergraduate advising in one lolcat.]]></description>
<dc:subject>lolcats funny to_teach</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:216eb62d5464/</dc:identifier>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach"/>
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</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.longstoryshortpier.com/2012/05/09/clews">
    <title>Long story; short pier: Clews</title>
    <dc:date>2012-05-10T13:32:14+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.longstoryshortpier.com/2012/05/09/clews</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["And the time ... in physics class, when we were doing these basic (very basic) labs on probability, and I had a little handheld pachinko machine? With a bunch of balls, and evenly spaced rods, and stalls at the bottom? And you tilt it down, and all the balls roll to the top, and you tilt it back, and they come cascading down, and hit the rods, and either bounce left or right, and in the end you’ve got this lovely little bell curve of balls at the bottom, because law of averages and such most balls bounce left, then right, then left, or some combination thereof, and end up in the middle? And only a few go left-left-left-left, or right-right-right-right, and end up on either end? —Anyway, it’s my turn, so I tilt it down, then back again, and click-clack-click-clack-click, and wouldn’t you know it, I’ve got an almost perfect reverse bell curve. Towering stacks of balls to the left and right, and almost nothing at all in the middle.
"So I go to the teacher running the show and hold it out to him and say, okay, now what, smart guy? (“If it fails to agree, under novel experiments or with refined measuring techniques, it is not said that one should not be happy.”)
"And the teacher looks at the little handheld pachinko machine, cocks an eyebrow, tilts it down, tilts it back, clack-click-clack-click-clack. Perfect bell curve.
"“There,” he says. “Fixed it for you.”
"—And I can’t for the life of me tell you which of those gestures is the argument with the universe, and which the sermon on the way things ought to be, dammit. —And that might just be my problem."]]></description>
<dc:subject>funny:geeky probability central_limit_theorem to_teach at_that_moment_the_student_was_enlightened</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:c71f24f71c46/</dc:identifier>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:central_limit_theorem"/>
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</item>
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