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    <description>recent bookmarks from cshalizi</description>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://arxiv.org/abs/1111.0537"/>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://stevereads.com/weblog/2009/03/28/robert-j-shiller-the-new-financial-order-risk-in-the-21st-century/"/>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://theamericanscene.com/2008/12/23/ahi-quanto-a-dir-qual-era-e-cosa-dura-esta-selva-selvaggia-e-aspra-e-forte-che-nel-pensier-rinova-la-paura"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.wilmott.com/blogs/paul/index.cfm/2008/12/12/Magicians-And-Mathematicians"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/archives/2008/12/credit_agencies.php"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.slate.com/id/2204583/pagenum/all/"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/28/business/28melt.html?_r=2&amp;hp=&amp;oref=slogin&amp;pagewanted=print"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.lrb.co.uk/v30/n18/mack01_.html"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/publications/C-B_pamphlet_final.pdf"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/08/reflections-on-alt.html"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.global-catastrophic-risks.com/index.html"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://thepoorman.net/2008/06/18/gregg-easterbrook-is-wait-for-it-an-idiot/"/>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/1102"/>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.efalken.com/papers/VaR.PDF"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://scienceblogs.com/principles/2008/01/school_killings_and_the_proble.php"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/2008/01/09/moodys_lament/index.html"/>
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    <title>An Algorithm Told Police She Was Safe. Then Her Husband Killed Her. - The New York Times</title>
    <dc:date>2024-07-19T04:32:41+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/18/technology/spain-domestic-violence-viogen-algorithm.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&amp;referringSource=articleShare&amp;sgrp=c-cb</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[--- I'll certainly teach this, but it's worth emphasizing something that this only hints at in its quotes.  Suppose this scoring system is (1) generally very reliable but not perfect, while (2) police protection works when it's provided.  It then follows that a very large share of the women who do get killed will be ones who were scored at low risk, precisely because all the high-risk cases are being effectually protected!]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB to_teach:data-mining risk_assessment violence ethical_and_political_issues_in_data_mining decision-making have_read via:aeo</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:6ffe6f5184b4/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://www.wired.com/story/welfare-state-algorithms/">
    <title>Inside the Suspicion Machine | WIRED</title>
    <dc:date>2023-03-21T15:43:38+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.wired.com/story/welfare-state-algorithms/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[--- Last tag for the underlying analysis.
--- The bit about coding _any_ comment from the social worker as a flag for trouble is mind-blowing, and not in a good way.]]></description>
<dc:subject>classifiers risk_assessment welfare_state algorithmic_fairness have_read to_teach:data-mining track_down_references bad_data_analysis</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:102b2cb016b2/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/711501">
    <title>Why Simpler Computer Simulation Models Can Be Epistemically Better for Informing Decisions | Philosophy of Science: Vol 88, No 2</title>
    <dc:date>2021-04-09T17:46:15+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/711501</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["For computer simulation models to usefully inform climate risk management, uncertainties in model projections must be explored and characterized. Because doing so requires running the model many times over, and because computing resources are finite, uncertainty assessment is more feasible using models that demand less computer processor time. Such models are generally simpler in the sense of being more idealized, or less realistic. So modelers face a trade-off between realism and uncertainty quantification. Seeing this trade-off for the important epistemic issue that it is requires a shift in perspective from the established simplicity literature in philosophy of science."]]></description>
<dc:subject>simulation philosophy_of_science risk_assessment climate_change complexity in_NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:410a0b30abb9/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520381155/safe-enough">
    <title>Safe Enough? A History of Nuclear Power and Accident Risk by Thomas R. Wellock - Hardcover - University of California Press</title>
    <dc:date>2021-03-19T14:36:19+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520381155/safe-enough</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Since the dawn of the Atomic Age, nuclear experts have labored to imagine the unimaginable and prevent it. They confronted a deceptively simple question: When is a reactor “safe enough” to adequately protect the public from catastrophe? Some experts sought a deceptively simple answer: an estimate that the odds of a major accident were, literally, a million to one. Far from simple, this search to quantify accident risk proved to be a tremendously complex and controversial endeavor, one that altered the very notion of safety in nuclear power and beyond.
"Safe Enough? is the first history to trace these contentious efforts, following the Atomic Energy Commission and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission as their experts experimented with tools to quantify accident risk for use in regulation and to persuade the public of nuclear power’s safety. The intense conflict over the value of risk assessment offers a window on the history of the nuclear safety debate and the beliefs of its advocates and opponents. Across seven decades and the accidents at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima, the quantification of risk has transformed both society’s understanding of the hazards posed by complex technologies and what it takes to make them safe enough."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB books:noted nukes history_of_science history_of_ideas history_of_technology risk_assessment decision-making sociology_of_science public_policy books:suggest_to_library</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
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<item rdf:about="http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev-statistics-010814-020148">
    <title>Risk and Uncertainty Communication | Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application</title>
    <dc:date>2017-09-25T13:38:27+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev-statistics-010814-020148</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["This review briefly examines the vast range of techniques used to communicate risk assessments arising from statistical analysis. After discussing essential psychological and sociological issues, I focus on individual health risks and relevant research on communicating numbers, verbal expressions, graphics, and conveying deeper uncertainty. I then consider practice in a selection of diverse case studies, including gambling, the benefits and risks of pharmaceuticals, weather forecasting, natural hazards, climate change, environmental exposures, security and intelligence, industrial reliability, and catastrophic national and global risks. There are some tentative final conclusions, but the primary message is to acknowledge expert guidance, be clear about objectives, and work closely with intended audiences."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB risk_vs_uncertainty risk_assessment statistics</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:37310ca603fd/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1198/jasa.2009.0155">
    <title>Adversarial Risk Analysis: Journal of the American Statistical Association: Vol 104, No 486</title>
    <dc:date>2017-08-07T22:37:48+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1198/jasa.2009.0155</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Applications in counterterrorism and corporate competition have led to the development of new methods for the analysis of decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. This field represents a combination of statistical risk analysis and game theory, and is sometimes called adversarial risk analysis. In this article, we describe several formulations of adversarial risk problems, and provide a framework that extends traditional risk analysis tools, such as influence diagrams and probabilistic reasoning, to adversarial problems. We also discuss the research challenges that arise when dealing with these models, illustrate the ideas with examples from business, and point out relevance to national defense."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB to_read risk_assessment risk_vs_uncertainty statistics game_theory</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:6d7f49205109/</dc:identifier>
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    <title>The price of complexity in financial networks</title>
    <dc:date>2016-09-06T18:17:44+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.pnas.org/content/113/36/10031.abstract.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Financial institutions form multilayer networks by engaging in contracts with each other and by holding exposures to common assets. As a result, the default probability of one institution depends on the default probability of all of the other institutions in the network. Here, we show how small errors on the knowledge of the network of contracts can lead to large errors in the probability of systemic defaults. From the point of view of financial regulators, our findings show that the complexity of financial networks may decrease the ability to mitigate systemic risk, and thus it may increase the social cost of financial crises."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB networks economics financial_markets risk_assessment</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:abc8337928fe/</dc:identifier>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
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<item rdf:about="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/prison-reform-risk-assessment/">
    <title>Should Prison Sentences Be Based On Crimes That Haven’t Been Committed Yet? | FiveThirtyEight</title>
    <dc:date>2015-08-23T20:40:23+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/prison-reform-risk-assessment/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Nobody seems to be pointing out that there is a basic causal-inference flaw here: even if these instruments are accurate predictors of the risk of committing crimes under _current_ circumstances, that doesn't mean that locking up the high-risk people for longer will reduce crimes!

Alt. URL: https://www.themarshallproject.org/2015/08/04/the-new-science-of-sentencing]]></description>
<dc:subject>us_politics crime law prediction data_mining to_teach:data-mining risk_assessment have_read goldstein.dana to:blog to_teach:statistics_of_inequality_and_discrimination</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:3cd9cafafdde/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/07/the-sex-offender-test/397850/">
    <title>The Abel Assessment and the Questions It Raises - The Atlantic</title>
    <dc:date>2015-07-09T23:18:41+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/07/the-sex-offender-test/397850/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Yet the pamphlet also says that test-takers who deny accusations of having molested a child should have their scores measured against the scores of “child sexual abusers who attempt to conceal,” suggesting that the percentage can be used to determine the likelihood that someone is lying." --- Hypothesis testing EPIC FAIL.]]></description>
<dc:subject>psychometrics mental_testing law crime data_mining statistics psychology risk_assessment</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f986daedaee2/</dc:identifier>
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</item>
<item rdf:about="http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/H/bo20298894">
    <title>How Our Days Became Numbered: Risk and the Rise of the Statistical Individual, Bouk</title>
    <dc:date>2015-06-08T02:46:37+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/H/bo20298894</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Long before the age of "Big Data" or the rise of today's "self-quantifiers," American capitalism embraced "risk"--and proceeded to number our days. Life insurers led the way, developing numerical practices for measuring individuals and groups, predicting their fates, and intervening in their futures. Emanating from the gilded boardrooms of Lower Manhattan and making their way into drawing rooms and tenement apartments across the nation, these practices soon came to change the futures they purported to divine."]]></description>
<dc:subject>books:noted history_of_ideas history_of_statistics statistics insurance economics the_present_before_it_was_widely_distributed risk_assessment in_NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:ca49e51b8790/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:history_of_ideas"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:history_of_statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:insurance"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:the_present_before_it_was_widely_distributed"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2013/6/10/what-are-fearless-white-hierarchical-individualist-males-afr.html">
    <title>www.culturalcognition.net - Cultural Cognition Blog - What are fearless white hierarchical individualist males afraid of? Lots of stuff!</title>
    <dc:date>2013-07-19T22:13:15+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2013/6/10/what-are-fearless-white-hierarchical-individualist-males-afr.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[This has the makings of a _great_ ADA assignment...]]></description>
<dc:subject>social_psychology us_politics risk_assessment conservatism track_down_references to_teach:undergrad-ADA</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:fd3ebf443557/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_psychology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:us_politics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:conservatism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:track_down_references"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:undergrad-ADA"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://arxiv.org/abs/1111.0537">
    <title>[1111.0537] Exact Moderate and Large Deviations for Linear Processes</title>
    <dc:date>2011-11-04T18:24:22+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://arxiv.org/abs/1111.0537</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Large and moderate deviation probabilities play an important role in many applied areas, such as insurance and risk analysis. This paper studies the exact moderate and large deviation asymptotics in non-logarithmic form for linear processes with independent innovations. The linear processes we analyze are general and therefore they include the long memory case. We give an asymptotic representation for probability of the tail of the normalized sums and specify the zones in which it can be approximated either by a standard normal distribution or by the marginal distribution of the innovation process. The results are then applied to regression estimates, moving averages, fractionally integrated processes, linear processes with regularly varying exponents and functions of linear processes. We also consider the computation of value at risk and expected shortfall, fundamental quantities in risk theory and finance."]]></description>
<dc:subject>stochastic_processes large_deviations moderate_deviations risk_assessment in_NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:c66c6933670d/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:stochastic_processes"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:large_deviations"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:moderate_deviations"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://crookedtimber.org/2010/12/22/the-christmas-sermon/">
    <title>The Christmas sermon — Crooked Timber</title>
    <dc:date>2010-12-22T23:20:20+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://crookedtimber.org/2010/12/22/the-christmas-sermon/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>funny:geeky quality_control risk_assessment dsquared</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:d3e02d5e355d/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:funny:geeky"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:quality_control"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:dsquared"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://dannyreviews.com/h/Coherent_Stress_Testing.html">
    <title>Coherent Stress Testing (Riccardo Rebonato) - book review</title>
    <dc:date>2010-11-06T15:29:25+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://dannyreviews.com/h/Coherent_Stress_Testing.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>books:noted book_reviews risk_assessment decision-making graphical_models yee.danny rebonato.riccard</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:4a358b6dda26/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:book_reviews"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:decision-making"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:graphical_models"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:yee.danny"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:rebonato.riccard"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://xkcd.com/795/">
    <title>xkcd: Conditional Risk</title>
    <dc:date>2010-09-20T12:45:32+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://xkcd.com/795/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Y'all can stop sending this to me now.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>funny:geeky funny:pointed risk_assessment risk_perception bad_data_analysis xkcd</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:4c29b1ae3537/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:funny:geeky"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:funny:pointed"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_perception"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bad_data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:xkcd"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/econ/archive/wp2008-03.pdf">
    <title>Competitive lending with partial knowledge of loan repayment</title>
    <dc:date>2009-06-28T02:22:11+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/econ/archive/wp2008-03.pdf</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>banking risk_assessment credit risk_vs_uncertainty to:NB brock.william_a. manski.charles_f.</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:ec2ab48d689e/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:banking"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:credit"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_vs_uncertainty"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:brock.william_a."/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:manski.charles_f."/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.springer.com/business/operations+research/book/978-0-387-89013-5">
    <title>Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems</title>
    <dc:date>2009-06-05T14:03:03+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.springer.com/business/operations+research/book/978-0-387-89013-5</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[This looks like it has to be either really interesting, or numbingly awful.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>books:noted risk_assessment risk_vs_uncertainty decision_theory</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f8bcc8134d70/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_vs_uncertainty"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:decision_theory"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.niss.org/affiliates/financialrisk200902/financial_risk_home.html">
    <title>NISS Explorations Workshop -- Exploring Statistical Issues in Financial Risk Modeling and Banking Regulation</title>
    <dc:date>2009-04-23T17:52:23+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.niss.org/affiliates/financialrisk200902/financial_risk_home.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Links to presentations.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>risk_assessment statistics</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:104ab4ab4181/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://stevereads.com/weblog/2009/03/28/robert-j-shiller-the-new-financial-order-risk-in-the-21st-century/">
    <title>Stephen Laniel’s Unspecified Bunker » Robert J. Shiller, The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century</title>
    <dc:date>2009-03-28T15:16:59+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://stevereads.com/weblog/2009/03/28/robert-j-shiller-the-new-financial-order-risk-in-the-21st-century/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Shorter (really, paraphrased) Steve: Shiller's heart is in the right place, but his brain is somewhere in the gamma quadrant.  In a vat.  Talking to swamp things.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>finance financialization utopian_capitalism shiller.robert book_reviews evisceration utter_stupidity risk_assessment risk_sharing economics laniel.stephen</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:de3d3afe1e7c/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:finance"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financialization"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:utopian_capitalism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:shiller.robert"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:book_reviews"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:evisceration"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:utter_stupidity"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_sharing"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:laniel.stephen"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/02/more-on-simply-dreadful-performance-of.html">
    <title>naked capitalism: More on the Simply Dreadful Performance of CDOs</title>
    <dc:date>2009-02-27T14:14:03+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/02/more-on-simply-dreadful-performance-of.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[There is a serious selection bias issue here (disproportionately looking at the badly-performing loans), but wow does everyone come out of this looking like a dangerous idiot.  (Use this as a negative example in the next incarnation of the data-mining class?)
]]></description>
<dc:subject>finance mortgage_crisis securitization risk_assessment via:hilzoy bad_data_analysis to_teach:data-mining</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:6da492089af8/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:finance"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mortgage_crisis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:securitization"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:hilzoy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bad_data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:data-mining"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/17-03/wp_quant?currentPage=all">
    <title>Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street</title>
    <dc:date>2009-02-24T18:18:22+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/17-03/wp_quant?currentPage=all</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Of course, since this is Wired, one has to wonder whether all the quotes are just made up to be "provocative".  (But Salmon is generally trustworthy, and this meshes with what I know from elsewhere.)  --- Donald MacKenzie fans will note the way the formula became embedded in market practice...
]]></description>
<dc:subject>financial_speculation risk_assessment copulas credit_derivatives li.david salmon.felix via:jbdelong quants</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f8d8003fb6c7/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financial_speculation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:copulas"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:credit_derivatives"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:li.david"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:salmon.felix"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:jbdelong"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:quants"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://content.cdlib.org/ark:/13030/ft3n39n8s1/">
    <title>RISK AND RATIONALITY: Philosophical Foundations for Populist Reforms (Shrader-Frechette)</title>
    <dc:date>2009-01-29T14:11:57+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://content.cdlib.org/ark:/13030/ft3n39n8s1/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Full text of 1991 book on (primarily environmental) risk assessment.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>books:noted risk_assessment environmental_policy rationality cost-benefit_analysis shrader-frechette.kristin</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:8235f827a33a/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:environmental_policy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:rationality"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:cost-benefit_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:shrader-frechette.kristin"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://ndpr.nd.edu/review.cfm?id=1252">
    <title>Shrader-Frechette on Sunstein on Risk</title>
    <dc:date>2009-01-29T13:59:51+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://ndpr.nd.edu/review.cfm?id=1252</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Not having read either of the two books in question, I can't say whether this is a fair critique, but it sounds reasonable.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>risk_assessment decision-making cost-benefit_analysis environmental_policy via:aaronsw moral_responsibility injustice_inherent_in_the_welfare_function sunstein.cass shrader-frechette.kristin</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:4af81e1109f2/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:decision-making"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:cost-benefit_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:environmental_policy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:aaronsw"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:moral_responsibility"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:injustice_inherent_in_the_welfare_function"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:sunstein.cass"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:shrader-frechette.kristin"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/28/business/28wamu.html?_r=1&amp;adxnnl=1&amp;partner=rss&amp;emc=rss&amp;adxnnlx=1230441239-8VhVlubh5FC6AJpG2xX86w&amp;pagewanted=all">
    <title>The Reckoning - WaMu Built an Empire on Bad Loans - Series - NYTimes.com</title>
    <dc:date>2008-12-29T02:10:51+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/28/business/28wamu.html?_r=1&amp;adxnnl=1&amp;partner=rss&amp;emc=rss&amp;adxnnlx=1230441239-8VhVlubh5FC6AJpG2xX86w&amp;pagewanted=all</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Was I the only one who read this and then thought "I can't wait to see what Tanta has to say about this?"
]]></description>
<dc:subject>mortgage_crisis fraud bad_management inequality risk_assessment washington_mutual</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:879ebe80369d/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mortgage_crisis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:fraud"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bad_management"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:inequality"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:washington_mutual"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://theamericanscene.com/2008/12/23/ahi-quanto-a-dir-qual-era-e-cosa-dura-esta-selva-selvaggia-e-aspra-e-forte-che-nel-pensier-rinova-la-paura">
    <title>Ahi quanto a dir qual era è cosa dura / esta selva selvaggia e aspra e forte / che nel pensier rinova la paura! | Economics | The American Scene</title>
    <dc:date>2008-12-24T14:27:32+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://theamericanscene.com/2008/12/23/ahi-quanto-a-dir-qual-era-e-cosa-dura-esta-selva-selvaggia-e-aspra-e-forte-che-nel-pensier-rinova-la-paura</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Aptly described by Kevin Drum as a structured-finance apparatchik performing self-criticism.  But interesting, especially for the CPDO story.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>finance credit_ratings risk_assessment fraud leverage via:kevin_drum to:blog millman.noah</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:02f4f2d74759/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:finance"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:credit_ratings"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:fraud"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:leverage"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:kevin_drum"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:blog"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:millman.noah"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.wilmott.com/blogs/paul/index.cfm/2008/12/12/Magicians-And-Mathematicians">
    <title>Paul Wilmott's Blog: Magicians And Mathematicians</title>
    <dc:date>2008-12-13T19:48:37+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.wilmott.com/blogs/paul/index.cfm/2008/12/12/Magicians-And-Mathematicians</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[I agree, but I don't think "the days when banking was populated by managers with degrees in History and who'd been leaders of the school debating team" had such a tremendous track-record either.  The time when finance has done the least social harm, it seems to me, was _when it was most regulated_, i.e., the post-WWII "golden age of capitalism".  The problem isn't the training of individual financiers, it's the institutions!
]]></description>
<dc:subject>risk_assessment risk_vs_uncertainty financial_speculation via:jbdelong wilmott.paul</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:daaef4d51406/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_vs_uncertainty"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financial_speculation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:jbdelong"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:wilmott.paul"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/archives/2008/12/credit_agencies.php">
    <title>Matthew Yglesias » Credit Agencies</title>
    <dc:date>2008-12-12T04:14:16+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/archives/2008/12/credit_agencies.php</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>market_failures_in_everything credit_ratings risk_assessment mortgage_crisis</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:96f4d86dc51a/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:market_failures_in_everything"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:credit_ratings"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mortgage_crisis"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.slate.com/id/2204583/pagenum/all/">
    <title>How the subprime good guys give home loans to poor people, strengthen communities, and still make a profit. - By Daniel Gross - Slate Magazine</title>
    <dc:date>2008-11-16T04:36:11+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.slate.com/id/2204583/pagenum/all/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>banking mortgage_crisis credit_unions risk_assessment gross.daniel</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:4833f6875c1c/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:banking"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mortgage_crisis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:credit_unions"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:gross.daniel"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/28/business/28melt.html?_r=2&amp;hp=&amp;oref=slogin&amp;pagewanted=print">
    <title>Behind Insurer’s Crisis, Blind Eye to a Web of Risk - Series - NYTimes.com</title>
    <dc:date>2008-10-01T23:16:58+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/28/business/28melt.html?_r=2&amp;hp=&amp;oref=slogin&amp;pagewanted=print</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Should I be surprised that somebody was pulling the Capital Destruction Partners/Hedge Fund Wizards scam in real life?  Or that they made millions and helped bring down AIG?  Probably not but it's still shocking.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>mortgage_crisis credit_derivatives risk_assessment utter_stupidity financial_speculation via:dani-rodrik</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:12c9e60cdd35/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mortgage_crisis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:credit_derivatives"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:utter_stupidity"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financial_speculation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:dani-rodrik"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.lrb.co.uk/v30/n18/mack01_.html">
    <title>LRB · Donald MacKenzie: What’s in a Number?</title>
    <dc:date>2008-09-25T16:05:27+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.lrb.co.uk/v30/n18/mack01_.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[MacKenzie explains LIBOR, and the social processes behind it.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>mackenzie.donald finance financial_markets libor banking risk_assessment popular_social_science</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:31d258b8ce1c/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mackenzie.donald"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:finance"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financial_markets"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:libor"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:banking"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:popular_social_science"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/publications/C-B_pamphlet_final.pdf">
    <title>Pricing the Priceless: Cost-Benefit Analysis of Environmental Protection</title>
    <dc:date>2008-08-27T19:59:19+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/publications/C-B_pamphlet_final.pdf</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Word.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>decision_theory cost-benefit_analysis risk_assessment environmental_management regulation natural_history_of_truthiness via:yglesias</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:ff146103860d/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:decision_theory"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:cost-benefit_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:environmental_management"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:regulation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:natural_history_of_truthiness"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:yglesias"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/08/reflections-on-alt.html">
    <title>Calculated Risk: Reflections on Alt-A</title>
    <dc:date>2008-08-14T02:50:16+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/08/reflections-on-alt.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>mortgage_crisis credit_ratings FICO risk_assessment tanta</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:4a4c062a7e04/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mortgage_crisis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:credit_ratings"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:FICO"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:tanta"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.global-catastrophic-risks.com/index.html">
    <title>Global Catastrophic Risks</title>
    <dc:date>2008-06-18T15:14:53+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.global-catastrophic-risks.com/index.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Website for the forthcoming volume edited by Bostrom & Cirkovic.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>risk_assessment supervolcanoes heat-death_of_the_universe pandemics grey_goo apocalypticism kith_and_kin bostrom.nick cirkovic.milan asteroids</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:eafb29a75ac9/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:supervolcanoes"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:heat-death_of_the_universe"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:pandemics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:grey_goo"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:apocalypticism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:kith_and_kin"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bostrom.nick"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:cirkovic.milan"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:asteroids"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://thepoorman.net/2008/06/18/gregg-easterbrook-is-wait-for-it-an-idiot/">
    <title>Gregg Easterbrook is - wait for it! - an idiot « The Poor Man Institute</title>
    <dc:date>2008-06-18T15:06:25+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://thepoorman.net/2008/06/18/gregg-easterbrook-is-wait-for-it-an-idiot/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>evisceration bad_science_journalism mass_extinctions utter_stupidity why_oh_why_cant_we_have_a_better_press_corps easterbrook.gregg risk_assessment asteroids</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:bca99af1b9a3/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:evisceration"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bad_science_journalism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mass_extinctions"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:utter_stupidity"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:why_oh_why_cant_we_have_a_better_press_corps"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:easterbrook.gregg"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:asteroids"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&amp;sid=aCFGw7GYxY14&amp;refer=home">
    <title>Bloomberg.com: Hedge Funds in Swaps Face Peril With Rising Junk Bond Defaults</title>
    <dc:date>2008-05-22T03:41:33+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&amp;sid=aCFGw7GYxY14&amp;refer=home</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[It looks like a lot of people have been following the Young/Foster "how to be a hedge fund wizard" strategy with credit default swaps, and it's all coming undone.  Note: horrible institutional set-up.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>financial_speculation credit_derivatives institutions via:email risk_assessment</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:19e31ab9ac9a/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financial_speculation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:credit_derivatives"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:institutions"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:email"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.lrb.co.uk/v30/n09/mack01_.html">
    <title>LRB · Donald MacKenzie: End-of-the-World Trade</title>
    <dc:date>2008-05-14T03:23:14+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.lrb.co.uk/v30/n09/mack01_.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Excellent piece on credit derivatives and the underlying institutional/cognitive problems of the markets, financial modeling, etc.  Makes me extra glad I didn't agree to supervise the credit default swap thesis.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>mackenzie.donald popular_social_science institutions mortgage_crisis social_life_of_the_mind collective_cognition markets_as_collective_calculating_devices financial_speculation finance credit_ratings risk_vs_uncertainty modeling abstraction sociology economics risk_assessment</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:0d25aae1470a/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mackenzie.donald"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:popular_social_science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:institutions"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mortgage_crisis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_life_of_the_mind"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:collective_cognition"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:markets_as_collective_calculating_devices"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financial_speculation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:finance"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:credit_ratings"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_vs_uncertainty"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:modeling"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:abstraction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:sociology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://scienceblogs.com/principles/2008/05/get_a_grip.php">
    <title>Uncertain Principles: Get a Grip!</title>
    <dc:date>2008-05-08T14:29:19+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://scienceblogs.com/principles/2008/05/get_a_grip.php</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["If we could stop seeing terrorists at every ticket counter, pedophiles in every YA section, and baby-snatchers in every hospital, we'd be much happier and healthier as a society."
]]></description>
<dc:subject>stupid_security magical_thinking decline_of_American_character orzel.chad risk_assessment</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:969452ae5be2/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:stupid_security"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:magical_thinking"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:decline_of_American_character"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:orzel.chad"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/1102">
    <title>The inappropriateness of financial regulation | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists</title>
    <dc:date>2008-05-03T16:39:23+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/1102</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[To think through.
]]></description>
<dc:subject>regulation banking economics herding financialization risk_assessment via:? presaud.avinash</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:489d6bcd088e/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:regulation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:banking"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:herding"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financialization"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:?"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:presaud.avinash"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_04/013609.php">
    <title>Kevin Drum: The Ratings Agencies</title>
    <dc:date>2008-04-28T16:22:43+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_04/013609.php</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>financial_speculation mortgage_crisis securitization risk_assessment credit_ratings</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:fd4da8a61a84/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financial_speculation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mortgage_crisis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:securitization"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:credit_ratings"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/2008/04/23/time_to_nationalize_moodys/index.html?source=rss&amp;aim=/tech/htww">
    <title>Nationalize the rating agencies! - How the World Works - Salon.com</title>
    <dc:date>2008-04-27T02:07:02+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/2008/04/23/time_to_nationalize_moodys/index.html?source=rss&amp;aim=/tech/htww</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>finance risk_assessment institutions leonard.andrew</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:1c122a9fc1f8/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:finance"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_assessment"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:institutions"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:leonard.andrew"/>
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</item>
<item rdf:about="http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2008/03/why-did-risk-mo.html">
    <title>Economist's View: Why Did Risk Models Fail?</title>
    <dc:date>2008-04-07T13:03:24+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2008/03/why-did-risk-mo.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>financial_speculation data_mining herding risk_vs_uncertainty risk_assessment</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:0ea8fd9b4803/</dc:identifier>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:herding"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:risk_vs_uncertainty"/>
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</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.efalken.com/papers/VaR.PDF">
    <title>Value-at-Risk and Derivatives Risk</title>
    <dc:date>2008-03-29T18:54:55+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.efalken.com/papers/VaR.PDF</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>finance risk_vs_uncertainty via:arthegall falkenstein.eric risk_assessment</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:0e673461bac9/</dc:identifier>
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</item>
<item rdf:about="http://scienceblogs.com/principles/2008/01/school_killings_and_the_proble.php">
    <title>Uncertain Principles: School Killings and The Problem With Relative Numbers</title>
    <dc:date>2008-01-21T16:43:06+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://scienceblogs.com/principles/2008/01/school_killings_and_the_proble.php</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[_Something_ has to be the 2nd-leading cause of death; that doesn't mean it's important
]]></description>
<dc:subject>bad_data_analysis violence risk_assessment</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f3286a872be0/</dc:identifier>
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</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/2008/01/09/moodys_lament/index.html">
    <title>Moody's lament: Our job is too hard</title>
    <dc:date>2008-01-18T18:10:02+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/2008/01/09/moodys_lament/index.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Andrew Leonard on the Moody's report
]]></description>
<dc:subject>financial_speculation leonard.andrew risk_assessment</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:2ad4283b7fa0/</dc:identifier>
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</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.moodys.com/moodys/cust/research/mdcdocs/06/2007000000466324.pdf">
    <title>Archaeology of the Crisis [Moody's]</title>
    <dc:date>2008-01-18T18:03:59+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.moodys.com/moodys/cust/research/mdcdocs/06/2007000000466324.pdf</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Nothing _wrong_, but also not that deep, or even conclusive.  But progress given the source. (Free PDF, registration required.)
]]></description>
<dc:subject>financial_speculation via:andrew-leonard risk_assessment</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:cae8c1219ecb/</dc:identifier>
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