Pinboard (cshalizi) https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/public/ recent bookmarks from cshalizi Situating Bayesian Knowledge: A Case Study of Modelling Pollutant Transfers from Land to Water – Computational Culture 2025-07-17T14:36:14+00:00 http://computationalculture.net/situating-bayesian-knowledge/ cshalizi to:NB to_read to_read_maybe the_french_disease bayesianism hydrology spatio-temporal_statistics re:phil-of-bayes_paper https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:e7e6be4024ca/ None of the Above | Elements of Evolutionary Anthropology 2025-03-23T17:17:45+00:00 https://elevanth.org/blog/2023/07/17/none-of-the-above/ cshalizi200 students/year...]]> statistics data_analysis have_read mcelreath.richard closing_old_tabs re:phil-of-bayes_paper to_teach:undergrad-ADA https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:1079612a0b01/ [2305.08429] Bayesian inference for misspecified generative models 2023-06-08T15:32:21+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.08429 cshalizi to:NB bayesianism misspecification statistics re:phil-of-bayes_paper to_read https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:683fd1cb974b/ Roger White, The epistemic advantage of prediction over accommodation - PhilPapers 2023-02-24T03:36:01+00:00 https://philpapers.org/rec/WHITEA cshalizi to:NB prediction philosophy_of_science re:phil-of-bayes_paper via:? https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:7dd0298aa71e/ [2012.12670] Testing whether a Learning Procedure is Calibrated 2020-12-24T15:34:15+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.12670 cshalizi computational_statistics calibration model_checking approximate_bayesian_computation re:phil-of-bayes_paper in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:a1543c3f9399/ Model Adequacy Checking/Goodness-of-fit Testing for Behavior in Joint Dynamic Network/Behavior Models, with an Extension to Two-mode Networks - Cheng Wang, Carter T. Butts, John Hipp, Cynthia M. Lakon, 2020 2020-12-16T21:32:30+00:00 https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0049124120914933 cshalizi network_data_analysis networks_in_and_over_time exponential_family_random_graphs goodness-of-fit statistics to_teach:baby-nets butts.carter_t. re:phil-of-bayes_paper simulation-based_inference model_checking in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:0c6f1d71eae6/ Collectivist Foundations for Bayesian Statistics - PhilSci-Archive 2020-12-12T16:04:04+00:00 http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/18496/ cshalizi to:NB bayesianism philosophy_of_science science_as_a_social_process mayo-wilson.conor re:phil-of-bayes_paper https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:09130a3e5710/ [1909.06523] Justifying the Norms of Inductive Inference 2019-09-18T12:55:38+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.06523 cshalizi to:NB bayesianism philosophy_of_science re:phil-of-bayes_paper color_me_skeptical https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:a5839291fd59/ Testing Sparsity-Inducing Penalties: Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics: Vol 0, No 0 2019-08-20T16:07:38+00:00 https://amstat.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10618600.2019.1637749 cshalizi to:NB model_checking sparsity regression hypothesis_testing bayesianism re:phil-of-bayes_paper hoff.peter to_besh https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:aaba8d8a838f/ [1908.00882] Population Predictive Checks 2019-08-05T12:47:41+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.00882 cshalizi to:NB model_checking bayesianism statistics blei.david re:phil-of-bayes_paper to_read cross-validation https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:221ff74c92f3/ Alternatives to post‐processing posterior predictive p values - Gåsemyr - - Scandinavian Journal of Statistics - Wiley Online Library 2019-06-15T16:54:04+00:00 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/sjos.12393?af=R cshalizi to:NB bayesianism statistics model_checking re:phil-of-bayes_paper https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:0616078fac6e/ trees are harlequins, words are harlequins — bayes: a kinda-sorta masterpost 2017-08-13T16:06:12+00:00 http://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/161645122124/bayes-a-kinda-sorta-masterpost cshalizi bayesianism statistics foundations_of_statistics utter_stupidity re:phil-of-bayes_paper https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:497d84bc939b/ [1511.01844] A note on the evaluation of generative models 2016-12-20T18:51:40+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1511.01844 cshalizi to:NB simulation stochastic_models model_checking statistics via:vaguery to_read re:ADAfaEPoV re:phil-of-bayes_paper https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:6d4902c7cfcf/ Critically evaluating the theory and performance of Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures 2016-08-24T16:14:25+00:00 http://www.pnas.org/content/113/34/9569.abstract.html cshalizi to:NB phylogenetics statistics re:phil-of-bayes_paper https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:09df42e1a901/ Reconstructing Reality: Models, Mathematics, and Simulations // Reviews // Notre Dame Philosophical Reviews // University of Notre Dame 2016-01-17T14:09:41+00:00 https://ndpr.nd.edu/news/59657-reconstructing-reality-models-mathematics-and-simulations/ cshaliziin_NB books:noted philosophy_of_science simulation modeling re:phil-of-bayes_paper https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:455c316ef510/ [1412.3442] Posterior predictive p-values and the convex order 2015-01-20T13:23:47+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1412.3442 cshalizi to:NB to_read model_checking bayesianism re:phil-of-bayes_paper hypothesis_testing p-values statistics https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:de3ce3593c11/ [1407.0050] Posterior predictive checks to quantify lack-of-fit in admixture models of latent population structure 2015-01-20T02:36:50+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1407.0050 cshalizi to:NB genetics statistics re:phil-of-bayes_paper blei.david https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:586b1c618d0b/ Testing for ontological errors in probabilistic forecasting models of natural systems 2014-08-20T15:52:37+00:00 http://www.pnas.org/content/111/33/11973.full cshalizi to:NB to_read statistics model_checking re:phil-of-bayes_paper foundations_of_statistics prediction https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:ae2487840f68/ [1312.0302] On the Equivalence between Bayesian and Classical Hypothesis Testing 2013-12-16T15:04:48+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1312.0302 cshalizi have_read hypothesis_testing bayesianism statistics re:phil-of-bayes_paper in_NB to:blog https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:1a00bd4bbb59/ Bayesian Estimation of the Discrepancy with Misspecified Parametric Models 2013-07-11T23:04:48+00:00 http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-BA024 cshalizi statistics estimation bayesian_consistency misspecification re:phil-of-bayes_paper in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:6488b86f8b46/ Calibration results for Bayesian model specification 2013-04-10T16:26:49+00:00 http://users.soe.ucsc.edu/~draper/draper-krnjajic-draft-2011.pdf cshalizi to:NB to_read model_selection bayesianism calibration model_checking hypothesis_testing re:phil-of-bayes_paper misspecification https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:48b44f050ab7/ Vehtari , Ojanen : A survey of Bayesian predictive methods for model assessment, selection and comparison 2012-12-27T19:33:47+00:00 http://projecteuclid.org/DPubS?service=UI&version=1.0&verb=Display&handle=euclid.ssu/1356628931 cshalizi bayesianism model_checking prediction statistics re:phil-of-bayes_paper in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:80ca07e28a1c/ The Safe Bayesian: learning the learning rate via the mixability gap 2012-07-13T01:18:25+00:00 http://homepages.cwi.nl/~pdg/ftp/alt12longer.pdf cshalizi heard_the_talk bayesianism learning_theory statistics misspecification re:phil-of-bayes_paper grunwald.peter in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:311c9df3d129/ Projective Evidence and the Heterogeneity of Scientific Confirmation - JSTOR: Philosophy of Science, Vol. 78, No. 5 (December <span class="smallcaps">2011</span>), pp. 887-899 2012-01-08T14:19:04+00:00 http://www.jstor.org/pss/10.1086/662283 cshalizi to:NB philosophy_of_science paleontology re:phil-of-bayes_paper https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:3bab84ab52ac/ Modeling the Change of Paradigm: Non-Bayesian Reactions to Unexpected News (Ortoleva) 2012-01-05T02:30:20+00:00 http://www.wordsmatter.caltech.edu/SSPapers/sswp1320.pdf cshalizi to:NB to_read decision_theory bayesianism statistics re:phil-of-bayes_paper https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:edb233896c20/ Modernizing Political Science: A Model-Based Approach 2011-10-18T19:52:04+00:00 http://rochester.edu/college/psc/clarke/POPArticle.pdf cshalizito:NB to_read political_science philosophy_of_science modeling re:phil-of-bayes_paper clarke.kevin primo.david https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:43873bec44a9/ A Model Discipline: Political Science and the Logic of Representations by - Powell's Books 2011-10-18T17:53:23+00:00 http://www.powells.com/biblio?isbn=978-0195382204 cshalizito:NB books:noted philosophy_of_science political_science re:phil-of-bayes_paper clarke.kevin primo.david via:scotte modeling https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:d20641798167/ Calibration and Econometric Non-Practice 2011-10-17T23:07:38+00:00 http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2011/10/calibration-and-econometric-non-practice.html? cshalizi macroeconomics econometrics rational_expectations calibration re:phil-of-bayes_paper statistics delong.brad model_checking https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f0bb44d9be55/ From Wald to Savage: homo economicus becomes a Bayesian statistician - Munich Personal RePEc Archive 2011-10-17T18:56:32+00:00 http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34117/ cshalizi re:phil-of-bayes_paper bayesianism statistics decision_theory economics history_of_statistics history_of_economics have_read wald.abraham savage.leonard_j. foundations_of_statistics in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:a7fe66fd71e1/ Little : Calibrated Bayes, for Statistics in General, and Missing Data in Particular 2011-08-01T16:45:47+00:00 http://projecteuclid.org/DPubS?service=UI&version=1.0&verb=Display&handle=euclid.ss/1312204002 cshalizi statistics bayesianism re:phil-of-bayes_paper to:NB to_read model_checking https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:51e2f2367743/ Confirmation in the Cognitive Sciences: The Problematic Case of Bayesian Models 2011-07-13T22:06:47+00:00 http://www.springerlink.com/content/v6g768437203h250/ cshalizi philosophy_of_science cognitive_science bayesianism kith_and_kin have_read re:phil-of-bayes_paper blogged eberhardt.frederick danks.david https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f9f68f6ba557/ [1106.2895] Statistical Inference: The Big Picture 2011-06-16T04:17:57+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1106.2895 cshalizire:phil-of-bayes_paper heard_the_talk kith_and_kin have_read to:blog kass.robert https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:66e47b62d8cf/ Irrelevant Conjunction and the Ratio Measure or Historical Skepticism - PhilSci-Archive 2011-05-26T19:53:35+00:00 http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/8616/ cshalizi philosophy_of_science bayesianism boltzmann_brains to:NB re:phil-of-bayes_paper https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:dfdc21e98ee6/ A frequentist interpretation of probability for model-based inductive inference 2011-03-03T12:35:10+00:00 http://www.springerlink.com/content/0426151n302h8804/ cshaliziprobability induction philosophy_of_science foundations_of_statistics re:phil-of-bayes_paper spanos.aris https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:77eb22ca570b/ "Induction, Samples, and Kinds" (Godfrey-Smith) 2010-11-08T01:23:45+00:00 http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~pgs/InductionSamplesKinds_INPC_final.pdf cshaliziinduction philosophy_of_science have_read re:phil-of-bayes_paper https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:e32781764093/ The strategy of model-based science (Godfrey-Smith, 2006) 2010-11-08T01:20:32+00:00 http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~pgs/PGS-StrategyMBS-06.pdf cshalizito_read modeling philosophy_of_science re:phil-of-bayes_paper godfrey-smith.peter https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:196ee032c04f/ "Popper's Philosophy of Science: Looking Ahead" (Godfrey-Smith) 2010-11-08T01:16:16+00:00 http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~pgs/PGSonPopper.pdf cshalizi have_read philosophy_of_science re:phil-of-bayes_paper godfrey-smith.peter popper.karl_r. https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:10552c27943a/ "Is Frequentist Testing Vulenrable to the Base-Rate Fallacy?" (Spanos) - Philosophy of Science 2010-10-03T18:48:39+00:00 http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/656009 cshalizi statistics philosophy_of_science re:phil-of-bayes_paper hypothesis_testing spanos.aris https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:5f0398164115/ [1006.3868] Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics 2010-06-22T00:10:31+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1006.3868 cshalizi bayesianism data_analysis foundations_of_statistics self-centered re:phil-of-bayes_paper philosophy_of_science gelman.andrew model_checking https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:9b880937c4c1/ [1005.5483] Model Selection Principles in Misspecified Models 2010-06-01T14:25:35+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1005.5483 cshalizi model_selection misspecification statistics re:phil-of-bayes_paper have_read https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:32be44d855fe/ A Material Theory of Induction 2010-05-24T21:03:00+00:00 http://www.pitt.edu/~jdnorton/papers/material.pdf cshalizi induction epistemology philosophy_of_science have_read re:phil-of-bayes_paper norton.john_d. https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:2137b675bd7d/ PhilSci Archive - A Little Survey of Induction 2010-05-24T03:36:27+00:00 http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/archive/00001446/ cshalizi induction philosophy_of_science philosophy re:phil-of-bayes_paper have_read norton.john_d. https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:c32b75a23e1e/ How persuasive is a good fit? A comment on theory testing. 2010-04-21T14:40:27+00:00 http://psycnet.apa.org/journals/rev/107/2/358/ cshalizi methodological_advice hypothesis_testing statistics psychology via:kass have_read re:phil-of-bayes_paper https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:ab4ac947389d/ Lindsay, Liu: Model Assessment Tools for a Model False World 2010-04-01T17:37:02+00:00 http://projecteuclid.org/DPubS?service=UI&version=1.0&verb=Display&handle=euclid.ss/1270041257 cshalizi statistics misspecification re:phil-of-bayes_paper hypothesis_testing bootstrap have_read to:blog https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:c4be6608d034/ Geweke, J.: Complete and Incomplete Econometric Models. 2010-01-31T18:27:42+00:00 http://press.princeton.edu/titles/9218.html cshalizi books:noted re:phil-of-bayes_paper re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks econometrics simulation statistics misspecification bayesianism books:owned https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:30f2cad66528/ [1001.4656] On Bayesian Data Analysis 2010-01-29T14:57:32+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1001.4656 cshalizibayesianism statistics re:phil-of-bayes_paper https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:1cd8d86499a6/ Likelihood for statistically equivalent models. John Copas. 2010; JRSS B 2010-01-29T14:26:16+00:00 http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/123266863/abstract cshalizi statistics estimation likelihood model_uncertainty misspecification re:phil-of-bayes_paper to_read https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:58fcc69c6f1b/ Commenges: Statistical models: Conventional, penalized and hierarchical likelihood 2009-12-31T18:48:47+00:00 http://projecteuclid.org/DPubS?service=UI&version=1.0&verb=Display&handle=euclid.ssu/1239113309 cshalizi statistics likelihood cross-validation re:phil-of-bayes_paper to_read https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:04fa6503ab91/ Evans, Jang: Invariant P-values for model checking 2009-12-31T16:49:05+00:00 http://projecteuclid.org/DPubS?service=UI&version=1.0&verb=Display&handle=euclid.aos/1262271622 cshalizi statistics hypothesis_testing p-values re:phil-of-bayes_paper have_read model_checking https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:ac6bd628cb55/ [0912.4269] Martingales and p-values as measures of evidence 2009-12-28T16:39:28+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/0912.4269 cshalizi martingales statistics p-values hypothesis_testing re:phil-of-bayes_paper to:NB have_read https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:02dd2e7604ba/ The Appraisal of Theories: Kuhn Meets Bayes (Salmon, 1990) 2009-11-21T13:44:53+00:00 http://www.jstor.org/pss/193077 cshalizi philosophy_of_science bayesianism have_read re:phil-of-bayes_paper salmon.wesley_c. https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:2723524f9ab5/ Bayesian Checking of the Second Levels of Hierarchical Models 2009-07-30T14:47:27+00:00 http://projecteuclid.org/DPubS?service=UI&version=1.0&verb=Display&handle=euclid.ss/1199285031 cshalizi statistics modeling bayesianism re:phil-of-bayes_paper have_read model_checking hierarchical_statistical_models https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:da48e8485ddb/ Inference and Stochastic Processes (Bartlett) 2009-06-19T15:35:00+00:00 http://www.jstor.org/stable/2982519 cshalizi statistical_inference_for_stochastic_processes foundations_of_statistics bayesianism re:phil-of-bayes_paper bartlett.m.s. have_read in_NB https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:677a9d51a506/ Testing Theories with Learnable and Predictive Representations 2009-03-20T15:55:18+00:00 http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/weinstein/htm/learnability0208.pdf cshalizi statistics learning_theory prediction decision_theory to_read re:phil-of-bayes_paper https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:dea026e00482/