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    <title>Pinboard (cshalizi)</title>
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    <description>recent bookmarks from cshalizi</description>
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  </channel><item rdf:about="https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9780691256740/html">
    <title>The Data Economy</title>
    <dc:date>2025-03-02T14:51:28+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9780691256740/html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["The most valuable firms in the global economy are valued largely for their data. Amazon, Apple, Google, and others have proven the competitive advantage of a good data set. And yet despite the growing importance of data as a strategic asset, modern economic theory neglects its role. In this book, Isaac Baley and Laura Veldkamp draw on a range of theoretical frameworks at the research frontier in macroeconomics and finance to model and measure data economies. Starting from the premise that data is digitized information that facilitates prediction and reduces uncertainty, Baley and Veldkamp uncover the ways that firm-level data choices resonate throughout the broader macroeconomic and financial landscapes.
"With The Data Economy, Baley and Veldkamp put forward a broad research agenda with a formal yet accessible approach, offering an analysis of the data economy and its welfare effects that will be of interest to practitioners, researchers, and graduate students. The tools presented, many of them information-related methods from macroeconomics and finance, are theoretical but introduced with careful attention to how they can inform or enable measurement. Applications include assessing the economic worth of data and unraveling its influence on the structure of production, inflation, and pricing dynamics; firm and investor behavior; advertising; market power; and asset pricing. Baley and Veldkamp bring readers to the cutting edge of this novel research area, equipping them to formulate their own theoretical advances and policy analysis."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB economics macroeconomics finance econometrics information_theory books:noted</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:c7f09031cfe2/</dc:identifier>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
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<item rdf:about="https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.08654">
    <title>[2111.08654] Exploration of the Parameter Space in Macroeconomic Agent-Based Models</title>
    <dc:date>2022-11-09T14:06:07+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://arxiv.org/abs/2111.08654</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Agent-Based Models (ABM) are computational scenario-generators, which can be used to predict the possible future outcomes of the complex system they represent. To better understand the robustness of these predictions, it is necessary to understand the full scope of the possible phenomena the model can generate. Most often, due to high-dimensional parameter spaces, this is a computationally expensive task. Inspired by ideas coming from systems biology, we show that for multiple macroeconomic models, including an agent-based model and several Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, there are only a few stiff parameter combinations that have strong effects, while the other sloppy directions are irrelevant. This suggest an algorithm that efficiently explores the space of parameters by primarily moving along the stiff directions. We apply our algorithm to a medium-sized agent-based model, and show that it recovers all possible dynamics of the unemployment rate. The application of this method to Agent-based Models may lead to a more thorough and robust understanding of their features, and provide enhanced parameter sensitivity analyses. Several promising paths for future research are discussed."]]></description>
<dc:subject>partial_identification macroeconomics agent-based_models have_read in_NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f0ac2c1c3c8a/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.16224">
    <title>[2210.16224] Empirical Macroeconomics and DSGE Modeling in Statistical Perspective</title>
    <dc:date>2022-10-31T04:16:14+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.16224</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have been an ubiquitous, and controversial, part of macroeconomics for decades. In this paper, we approach DSGEs purely as statstical models. We do this by applying two common model validation checks to the canonical Smets and Wouters 2007 DSGE: (1) we simulate the model and see how well it can be estimated from its own simulation output, and (2) we see how well it can seem to fit nonsense data. We find that (1) even with centuries' worth of data, the model remains poorly estimated, and (2) when we swap series at random, so that (e.g.) what the model gets as the inflation rate is really hours worked, what it gets as hours worked is really investment, etc., the fit is often only slightly impaired, and in a large percentage of cases actually improves (even out of sample). Taken together, these findings cast serious doubt on the meaningfulness of parameter estimates for this DSGE, and on whether this specification represents anything structural about the economy. Constructively, our approaches can be used for model validation by anyone working with macroeconomic time series."]]></description>
<dc:subject>in_NB self-promotion macroeconomics time_series re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:66bbc9584b8d/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04902">
    <title>[2206.04902] Forecasting macroeconomic data with Bayesian VARs: Sparse or dense? It depends!</title>
    <dc:date>2022-06-13T17:40:28+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04902</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Vectorautogressions (VARs) are widely applied when it comes to modeling and forecasting macroeconomic variables. In high dimensions, however, they are prone to overfitting. Bayesian methods, more concretely shrinking priors, have shown to be successful in improving prediction performance. In the present paper we introduce the recently developed R2-induced Dirichlet-decomposition prior to the VAR framework and compare it to refinements of well-known priors in the VAR literature. We demonstrate the virtues of the proposed prior in an extensive simulation study and in an empirical application forecasting data of the US economy. Further, we shed more light on the ongoing Illusion of Sparsity debate. We find that forecasting performances under sparse/dense priors vary across evaluated economic variables and across time frames; dynamic model averaging, however, can combine the merits of both worlds. All priors are implemented using the reduced-form VAR and all models feature stochastic volatility in the variance-covariance matrix."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB time_series prediction macroeconomics re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks ensemble_methods</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:b6484bcc0127/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.06921">
    <title>[2202.06921] Simple Models and Biased Forecasts</title>
    <dc:date>2022-03-07T20:52:59+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.06921</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["This paper proposes a general framework in which agents are constrained to use simple time-series models to forecast economic variables and characterizes the resulting bias in the agents' forecasts. It considers agents who can only entertain state-space models with no more than d states, where d measures the agents' cognitive abilities. Agents' models are otherwise unrestricted a priori and disciplined endogenously by maximizing the fit to the true process. When the true process does not have a d-state representation, agents end up with misspecified models and biased forecasts. If the true process satisfies an ergodicity assumption, the bias manifests itself as persistence bias: a tendency to attend to the most persistent observables at the expense of less persistent ones. The bias causes agents' foreword-looking decisions to mimic the dynamics of backward-looking, persistent variables in the economy. It also dampens the response of agents' actions to shocks and leads to additional co-movements between various choices. The paper then proceeds to study the implications of the theory in the context of three calibrated workhorse macro models: the new-Keynesian, real business cycle, and Diamond--Mortensen--Pissarides models. In each case, constraining agents to use simple models brings the model's predictions more in line with the data, without adding any parameters other than the integer d."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB misspecification prediction macroeconomics re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f20fe7f16747/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20191432">
    <title>Asymmetric Attention - American Economic Association</title>
    <dc:date>2021-08-30T15:11:52+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20191432</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["We document that the expectations of households, firms, and professional forecasters in standard surveys simultaneously extrapolate from recent events and underreact to new information. Existing models of expectation formation, whether behavioral or rational, cannot account for these observations. We develop a rational theory of extrapolation based on limited attention, which is consistent with this evidence. In particular, we show that limited, asymmetric attention to procyclical variables can explain the coexistence of extrapolation and underreactions. We illustrate these mechanisms in a microfounded macroeconomic model, which generates expectations consistent with the survey data, and show that asymmetric attention increases business cycle fluctuations."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB prediction psychology macroeconomics re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f8e69572c603/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2021.1967910">
    <title>Seeing like a macroeconomist: varieties of formalisation, professional incentives and academic ideational change: New Political Economy: Vol 0, No 0</title>
    <dc:date>2021-08-19T02:13:52+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2021.1967910</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["An emerging literature in political economy points to ‘hinges’ between academia and policy as important sites of analysis and emphasises the role of quantitative models in lending scientific legitimacy to economic ideas. This paper contributes to this literature by asking: what drives change in what is seen as authoritative macroeconomic modelling in academic settings? And how do drivers of ideational change in academia differ from drivers of ideational change in economic policy institutions? In answering these questions the paper emphasises the way in which variations in the formal structures of macroeconomic models interact with academics’ individual professional incentives. Specifically, it argues that ‘portable’ forms of modelling that do not require access to extensive resources are likely to trump ‘fixed’ and resource-intensive forms of modelling. Making this distinction helps elucidate critical junctures in the history of macroeconomic thought. Analytically, the paper relies on a framework that connects the sociology of science, the sociology of professions and the institutionalist tradition in political economy."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB macroeconomics science_as_a_social_process re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks via:henry_farrell</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:dd60ee671a39/</dc:identifier>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:science_as_a_social_process"/>
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<item rdf:about="https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.35.3.215">
    <title>Why Is Growth in Developing Countries So Hard to Measure? - American Economic Association</title>
    <dc:date>2021-08-05T02:55:00+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.35.3.215</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Occasional widely publicized controversies have led to the perception that growth statistics from developing countries are not to be trusted. Based on the comparison of several data sources and analysis of novel IMF audit data, we find no support for the view that growth is on average measured less accurately or manipulated more in developing than in developed countries. While developing countries face many challenges in measuring growth, so do higher-income countries, especially those with complex and sometimes rapidly changing economic structures. However, we find consistently higher dispersion of growth estimates from developing countries, lending support to the view that classical measurement error is more problematic in poorer countries and that a few outliers may have had a disproportionate effect on (mis)measurement perceptions. We identify several measurement challenges that are specific to poorer countries, namely limited statistical capacity, the use of outdated data and methods, the large share of the agricultural sector, the informal economy, and limited price data. We show that growth measurement based on the System of National Accounts (SNA) can be improved if supplemented with information from other data sources (for example, satellite-based data on vegetation yields) that address some of the limitations of SNA."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB economics statistics macroeconomics development_economics economic_growth social_measurement</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:4126463b4d50/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:development_economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economic_growth"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_measurement"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.nber.org/papers/w29060">
    <title>Modeling Macroeconomic Variations after Covid-19 | NBER</title>
    <dc:date>2021-07-27T13:13:21+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.nber.org/papers/w29060</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["The coronavirus is a global event of historical proportions and just a few months changed the time series properties of the data in ways that make many pre-covid forecasting models inadequate. It also creates a new problem for estimation of economic factors and dynamic causal effects because the variations around the outbreak can be interpreted as outliers, as shifts to the distribution of existing shocks, or as addition of new shocks. I take the latter view and use covid indicators as controls to 'de-covid' the data prior to estimation. I find that economic uncertainty remains high at the end of 2020 even though real economic activity has recovered and covid uncertainty has receded. Dynamic responses of variables to shocks in a VAR similar in magnitude and shape to the ones identified before 2020 can be recovered by directly or indirectly modeling covid and treating it as exogenous. These responses to economic shocks are distinctly different from those to a covid shock, and distinguishing between the two types of shocks can be important in macroeconomic modeling post-covid."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB macroeconomics coronavirus_pandemic_of_2019-- ng.serena time_series</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:0706ef1d2aa4/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:coronavirus_pandemic_of_2019--"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:ng.serena"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:time_series"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.nber.org/papers/w29050">
    <title>Macroeconomic Misery by Levels of Income in America | NBER</title>
    <dc:date>2021-07-19T15:41:52+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.nber.org/papers/w29050</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Thirty years of distributional data are used to study the short-term impacts of popular macroeconomic indicators on real household incomes from the poorest to the richest Americans. The appropriate weights on unemployment versus inflation vary across the distribution. The unemployment rate matters at all levels, but especially so for the poorest. Inflation rates matter at middle incomes, though Okun’s famous Misery Index only performs well for the top income groups. GDP growth matters at all levels and proportionately more for the poorest, though only via the unemployment rate. Recessions are poverty-increasing, and skewness-decreasing, but with ambiguous effects on overall inequality."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB macroeconomics economics inequality</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f2aa352cf5ec/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:inequality"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.nber.org/papers/w28888">
    <title>Supply, Demand, and Specialized Production | NBER</title>
    <dc:date>2021-06-19T06:15:25+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.nber.org/papers/w28888</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["This paper develops a growth model characterized by equilibrium unemployment and sustained monopoly power. The level of demand is a key factor in deviations from the steady-state growth path with a Keynesian-type spending multiplier despite the absence of any nominal rigidities. The key friction in the model is the technological requirement that production of certain goods requires a dedicated team of workers that takes time to train and assemble."

]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB macroeconomics</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:92512915895d/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.rebuildingmacroeconomics.ac.uk/research-prize-complexity-macro">
    <title>Prize Complexity Macro | Rebuild Macro</title>
    <dc:date>2021-06-11T18:15:15+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.rebuildingmacroeconomics.ac.uk/research-prize-complexity-macro</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Economic Forecasting with an Agent-based Model"

--- "Cars Hommes" --- now that is is a name which I haven't heard in a long time (sadly!).]]></description>
<dc:subject>to_read macroeconomics agent-based_models re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks hommes.cars via:? in_NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:fb0cdd4b20a6/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:agent-based_models"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:hommes.cars"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:?"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.00273">
    <title>[2007.00273] When are Google data useful to nowcast GDP? An approach via pre-selection and shrinkage</title>
    <dc:date>2021-06-10T02:09:00+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.00273</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Alternative data sets are nowadays widely used for macroeconomic nowcasting together with new Machine Learning-based tools which often are applied without having a complete picture of their theoretical nowcasting properties. Against this background, this paper proposes a theoretically-funded nowcasting methodology allowing to incorporate alternative Google Search Data (GSD) among the predictors and combining targeted preselection, Ridge regularization and Generalized Cross Validation. Breaking with most of the existing literature that focuses on asymptotic in-sample theoretical properties, we establish the theoretical out-of-sample properties of our methodology, that are supported by Monte-Carlo simulations. We apply our methodology to GSD in order to nowcast GDP growth rate of different countries during various economic periods. Our empirical findings support the idea that GSD tend to increase nowcasting accuracy, even after controlling for official variables, but that the gain differs between periods of recessions and of macroeconomic stability."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB macroeconomics social_measurement econometrics re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks statistics</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:3eddc826a2fe/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_measurement"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:econometrics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.nber.org/papers/w23673">
    <title>Opportunities and Challenges: Lessons from Analyzing Terabytes of Scanner Data | NBER</title>
    <dc:date>2021-04-11T03:31:25+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.nber.org/papers/w23673</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["This paper seeks to better understand what makes big data analysis different, what we can and cannot do with existing econometric tools, and what issues need to be dealt with in order to work with the data efficiently. As a case study, I set out to extract any business cycle information that might exist in four terabytes of weekly scanner data. The main challenge is to handle the volume, variety, and characteristics of the data within the constraints of our computing environment. Scalable and efficient algorithms are available to ease the computation burden, but they often have unknown statistical properties and are not designed for the purpose of efficient estimation or optimal inference. As well, economic data have unique characteristics that generic algorithms may not accommodate. There is a need for computationally efficient econometric methods as big data is likely here to stay."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB data_mining macroeconomics ng.serena heard_the_talk to_read re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:59ca1ea7aed8/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:data_mining"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:ng.serena"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:heard_the_talk"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11238-012-9305-8">
    <title>D-separation, forecasting, and economic science: a conjecture | SpringerLink</title>
    <dc:date>2021-04-05T14:55:39+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11238-012-9305-8</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["The paper considers the conjecture that forecasts from preferred economic models or theories d-separate forecasts from less preferred models or theories from the Actual realization of the variable for which a scientific explanation is sought. D-separation provides a succinct notion to represent forecast dominance of one set of forecasts over another; it provides, as well, a criterion for model preference as a fundamental device for progress in economic science. We demonstrate these ideas with examples from three areas of economic modeling."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB model_selection prediction causal_inference causal_discovery social_science_methodology econometrics macroeconomics re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks have_skimmed</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:80b199897417/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:model_selection"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:causal_inference"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:causal_discovery"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_science_methodology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:econometrics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_skimmed"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.nber.org/papers/w27453">
    <title>Towards a Dynamic Disequilibrium Theory with Randomness | NBER</title>
    <dc:date>2020-11-03T16:32:32+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.nber.org/papers/w27453</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Most macroeconomic crises, such as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, are associated with endogenous large changes in beliefs and understandings about the workings of the economy. Such downturns and crises are not consistent with the standard paradigm of a well-functioning competitive economy, and macroeconomic equilibrium models based on that paradigm have failed to predict the possibility of those downturns, to explain them, or even to design appropriate policy responses. The framework assumes there are no macroeconomic inconsistencies—all plans are realized, all budget constraints honored.
"In this paper, we present a dynamic disequilibrium theory with randomness that is based on the premise that a better way to understand deep downturns is to think of the economy experiencing a constant evolution, marked by uncertainty, in which there is continual learning about the economic system. Our framework explains why macroeconomic inconsistencies may arise and investigates their consequences. We explain why decentralized market forces may be disequilibrating. We identify the crucial departures from the Arrow-Debreu assumptions and those underlying DSGE models, emphasizing the limitations in the assumption of equilibrium and the absence of a coherent theory of how it is attained, the incompleteness of markets and the non-stationarity of the stochastic processes describing the economy. We analyze the policy implications of this alternative theory, which typically differ markedly from those of the standard model: In particular, the consequences for the effectiveness of different monetary and fiscal policies, and the eventual need of debt restructuring policies to restore macroeconomic consistency."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB economics macroeconomics stiglitz.joseph to_read</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:cb5f5b7f9359/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:stiglitz.joseph"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_read"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20181174">
    <title>Business-Cycle Anatomy - American Economic Association</title>
    <dc:date>2020-09-28T15:33:00+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20181174</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["We propose a new strategy for dissecting the macroeconomic time series, provide a template for the business-cycle propagation mechanism that best describes the data, and use its properties to appraise models of both the parsimonious and the medium-scale variety. Our findings support the existence of a main business-cycle driver but rule out the following candidates for this role: technology or other shocks that map to TFP movements; news about future productivity; and inflationary demand shocks of the textbook type. Models aimed at accommodating demand-driven cycles without a strict reliance on nominal rigidity appear promising."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB time_series macroeconomics to_read</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:56c5802db897/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:time_series"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_read"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://bengolub.net/papers/SNFF.pdf">
    <title>Supply Network Formation and Fragility</title>
    <dc:date>2020-04-08T14:11:38+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://bengolub.net/papers/SNFF.pdf</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["We model the production of complex goods in a large supply network. Firms source
several essential inputs through relationships with other firms. Due to the risk of such supply
relationships being idiosyncratically disrupted, firms multisource inputs and invest to make relationships with suppliers stronger. In equilibrium, aggregate production is robust to idiosyncratic
disruptions. However, depending on parameters, the supply network may be robust or arbitrarily
sensitive to small aggregate shocks that affect the functioning of relationships. We give conditions
under which the equilibrium network is driven to a fragile configuration, where arbitrarily small
aggregate shocks cause discontinuous losses. We use the model to provide a unified account of a
number of stylized facts about complex economies."

--- I could swear that Krugman had basically this model in a page of _The Self-organizing Economy_ (1996), only my copy is locked in my campus office...]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB percolation_theory networks economics macroeconomics to_read</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:5dfe92f1bb3e/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:percolation_theory"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:networks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_read"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.100.032307">
    <title>Phys. Rev. E 100, 032307 (2019) - May's instability in large economies</title>
    <dc:date>2019-09-24T05:22:37+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevE.100.032307</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Will a large economy be stable? Building on Robert May's original argument for large ecosystems, we conjecture that evolutionary and behavioural forces conspire to drive the economy towards marginal stability. We study networks of firms in which inputs for production are not easily substitutable, as in several real-world supply chains. Relying on results from random matrix theory, we argue that such networks generically become dysfunctional when their size increases, when the heterogeneity between firms becomes too strong, or when substitutability of their production inputs is reduced. At marginal stability and for large heterogeneities, we find that the distribution of firm sizes develops a power-law tail, as observed empirically. Crises can be triggered by small idiosyncratic shocks, which lead to “avalanches” of defaults characterized by a power-law distribution of total output losses. This scenario would naturally explain the well-known “small shocks, large business cycles” puzzle, as anticipated long ago by Bak, Chen, Scheinkman, and Woodford."


--- Ungated: [http://arxiv.org/abs/1901.09629]]]></description>
<dc:subject>economics macroeconomics color_me_skeptical input-output_analysis economic_networks in_NB random_matrices bouchaud.jean-philippe</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:7d467b654b8e/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:color_me_skeptical"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:input-output_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economic_networks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:random_matrices"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bouchaud.jean-philippe"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-economics-080218-030212">
    <title>Production Networks: A Primer | Annual Review of Economics</title>
    <dc:date>2019-08-26T23:53:54+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-economics-080218-030212</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["This article reviews the literature on production networks in macroeconomics. It presents the theoretical foundations for the role of input–output linkages as a shock propagation channel and as a mechanism for transforming microeconomic shocks into macroeconomic fluctuations. The article also provides a brief guide to the growing literature that explores these themes empirically and quantitatively."]]></description>
<dc:subject>economics macroeconomics input-output_analysis leontief_died_for_your_sins in_NB economic_networks have_read</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:bf15d6eba248/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:input-output_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:leontief_died_for_your_sins"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economic_networks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-economics-080217-053214">
    <title>Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data | Annual Review of Economics</title>
    <dc:date>2019-05-26T16:39:34+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-economics-080217-053214</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Data, data, data…. Economists know their importance well, especially when it comes to monitoring macroeconomic conditions—the basis for making informed economic and policy decisions. Handling large and complex data sets was a challenge that macroeconomists engaged in real-time analysis faced long before so-called big data became pervasive in other disciplines. We review how methods for tracking economic conditions using big data have evolved over time and explain how econometric techniques have advanced to mimic and automate best practices of forecasters on trading desks, at central banks, and in other market-monitoring roles. We present in detail the methodology underlying the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, which employs these innovative techniques to produce early estimates of GDP growth, synthesizing a wide range of macroeconomic data as they become available."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB economics econometrics macroeconomics social_measurement statistics</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:89337a521d83/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:econometrics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_measurement"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/rest_a_00718">
    <title>A Composite Likelihood Framework for Analyzing Singular DSGE Models | The Review of Economics and Statistics | MIT Press Journals</title>
    <dc:date>2019-01-04T03:27:21+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/rest_a_00718</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["This paper builds on the composite likelihood concept of Lindsay (1988) to develop a framework for parameter identification, estimation, inference, and forecasting in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models allowing for stochastic singularity. The framework consists of four components. First, it provides a necessary and sufficient condition for parameter identification, where the identifying information is provided by the first- and second-order properties of nonsingular submodels. Second, it provides a procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo for parameter estimation. Third, it delivers confidence sets for structural parameters and impulse responses that allow for model misspecification. Fourth, it generates forecasts for all the observed endogenous variables, irrespective of the number of shocks in the model. The framework encompasses the conventional likelihood analysis as a special case when the model is nonsingular. It enables the researcher to start with a basic model and then gradually incorporate more shocks and other features, meanwhile confronting all the models with the data to assess their implications. The methodology is illustrated using both small- and medium-scale DSGE models. These models have numbers of shocks ranging between 1 and 7."]]></description>
<dc:subject>state-space_models economics time_series macroeconomics statistics likelihood re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks in_NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:3f15d77b79b3/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:state-space_models"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:time_series"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:likelihood"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.32.3.141">
    <title>Evolution of Modern Business Cycle Models: Accounting for the Great Recession</title>
    <dc:date>2018-08-02T00:33:23+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.32.3.141</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Modern business cycle theory focuses on the study of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models that generate aggregate fluctuations similar to those experienced by actual economies. We discuss how these modern business cycle models have evolved across three generations, from their roots in the early real business cycle models of the late 1970s through the turmoil of the Great Recession four decades later. The first generation models were real (that is, without a monetary sector) business cycle models that primarily explored whether a small number of shocks, often one or two, could generate fluctuations similar to those observed in aggregate variables such as output, consumption, investment, and hours. These basic models disciplined their key parameters with micro evidence and were remarkably successful in matching these aggregate variables. A second generation of these models incorporated frictions such as sticky prices and wages; these models were primarily developed to be used in central banks for short-term forecasting purposes and for performing counterfactual policy experiments. A third generation of business cycle models incorporate the rich heterogeneity of patterns from the micro data. A defining characteristic of these models is not the heterogeneity among model agents they accommodate nor the micro-level evidence they rely on (although both are common), but rather the insistence that any new parameters or feature included be explicitly disciplined by direct evidence. We show how two versions of this latest generation of modern business cycle models, which are real business cycle models with frictions in labor and financial markets, can account, respectively, for the aggregate and the cross-regional fluctuations observed in the United States during the Great Recession."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB macroeconomics re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks financial_crisis_of_2007-- economics</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:73fb213d670a/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financial_crisis_of_2007--"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.32.3.113">
    <title>On DSGE Models</title>
    <dc:date>2018-08-02T00:32:16+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.32.3.113</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["The outcome of any important macroeconomic policy change is the net effect of forces operating on different parts of the economy. A central challenge facing policymakers is how to assess the relative strength of those forces. Economists have a range of tools that can be used to make such assessments. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are the leading tool for making such assessments in an open and transparent manner. We review the state of mainstream DSGE models before the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We then describe how DSGE models are estimated and evaluated. We address the question of why DSGE modelers—like most other economists and policymakers—failed to predict the financial crisis and the Great Recession, and how DSGE modelers responded to the financial crisis and its aftermath. We discuss how current DSGE models are actually used by policymakers. We then provide a brief response to some criticisms of DSGE models, with special emphasis on criticism by Joseph Stiglitz, and offer some concluding remarks."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB macroeconomics re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:0da532902d82/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.32.3.59">
    <title>Identification in Macroeconomics</title>
    <dc:date>2018-08-02T00:31:09+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.32.3.59</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["This paper discusses empirical approaches macroeconomists use to answer questions like: What does monetary policy do? How large are the effects of fiscal stimulus? What caused the Great Recession? Why do some countries grow faster than others? Identification of causal effects plays two roles in this process. In certain cases, progress can be made using the direct approach of identifying plausibly exogenous variation in a policy and using this variation to assess the effect of the policy. However, external validity concerns limit what can be learned in this way. Carefully identified causal effects estimates can also be used as moments in a structural moment matching exercise. We use the term "identified moments" as a short-hand for "estimates of responses to identified structural shocks," or what applied microeconomists would call "causal effects." We argue that such identified moments are often powerful diagnostic tools for distinguishing between important classes of models (and thereby learning about the effects of policy). To illustrate these notions we discuss the growing use of cross-sectional evidence in macroeconomics and consider what the best existing evidence is on the effects of monetary policy."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB causal_inference macroeconomics economics re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:6888f4f68114/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:causal_inference"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2684776">
    <title>The Non-Existence of Representative Agents by Matthew O. Jackson, Leeat Yariv :: SSRN</title>
    <dc:date>2018-07-18T14:33:24+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2684776</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["We characterize environments in which there exists a representative agent: an agent who inherits the structure of preferences of the population that she represents. The existence of such a representative agent imposes strong restrictions on individual utility functions -- requiring them to be linear in the allocation and additively separable in any parameter that characterizes agents' preferences (e.g., a risk aversion parameter, a discount factor, etc.). Commonly used classes of utility functions (exponentially discounted utility functions, CRRA or CARA utility functions, logarithmic functions, etc.) do not admit a representative agent."]]></description>
<dc:subject>economics macroeconomics macro_from_micro aggregation jackson.matthew_o. re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks in_NB have_read</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:92ae0b7d8444/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macro_from_micro"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:aggregation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:jackson.matthew_o."/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/guidance-enterprise-economy">
    <title>The Guidance of an Enterprise Economy | The MIT Press</title>
    <dc:date>2017-02-04T17:42:58+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/guidance-enterprise-economy</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["This book offers a rigorous study of control, guidance, and coordination problems of an enterprise economy, with attention to the roles of money and financial institutions. The approach is distinctive in drawing on game theory, methods of physics and experimental gaming, and, more generally, a broader evolutionary perspective from the biological and behavioral sciences. The proposed theory unites Walrasian general equilibrium with macroeconomic dynamics and Schumpeterian innovation utilizing strategic market games. Problems concerning the meaning of rational economic behavior and the concept of solution are noted.
"The authors argue that process models of the economy can be built that are consistent with the general equilibrium system but become progressively more complex as new functions are added. Explicit embedding of the economy within the framework of government and society provides a natural, both formal and informal, control system."]]></description>
<dc:subject>in_NB economics macroeconomics smith.eric kith_and_kin books:noted</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:119f163e1aaa/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:smith.eric"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:kith_and_kin"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://ejpe.org/pdf/4-2-int.pdf">
    <title>The economic entomologist: an interview with Alan Kirman</title>
    <dc:date>2016-12-29T15:46:26+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://ejpe.org/pdf/4-2-int.pdf</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>to:NB have_skimmed economics social_science_methodology kirman.alan macroeconomics agent-based_models bounded_rationality social_life_of_the_mind via:?</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:924386a0fcf3/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_skimmed"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_science_methodology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:kirman.alan"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:agent-based_models"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bounded_rationality"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_life_of_the_mind"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:?"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/08/12/the-state-of-macro-is-sad-wonkish/">
    <title>The State of Macro Is Sad (Wonkish) - The New York Times</title>
    <dc:date>2016-08-15T15:17:11+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/08/12/the-state-of-macro-is-sad-wonkish/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>have_read re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks macroeconomics krugman.paul</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:394f044f2903/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:krugman.paul"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://piie.com/system/files/documents/pb16-11.pdf">
    <title>Do DSGE Models Have a Future?</title>
    <dc:date>2016-08-11T15:31:24+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://piie.com/system/files/documents/pb16-11.pdf</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>to:NB to_read re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks economics macroeconomics blanchard.olivier via:jbdelong color_me_skeptical</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:5126eeee81ba/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:blanchard.olivier"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:jbdelong"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:color_me_skeptical"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jel.54.2.534">
    <title>Complexity and Economic Policy: A Paradigm Shift or a Change in Perspective? A Review Essay on David Colander and Roland Kupers's Complexity and the Art of Public Policy</title>
    <dc:date>2016-06-06T22:16:24+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jel.54.2.534</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["In their recent book, Colander and Kupers (2014) argue that viewing the economy as a complex adaptive system should change the way in which we make economic policy. This would necessitate a paradigm shift. Economics has, over time, tried to produce a coherent model to underpin the dominant laissez-faire liberal approach. But we have never proved, in that model, that left to their own devices, the participants in an economy will self-organize into a satisfactory state. This is an assumption. Complex interactive systems with direct interaction between heterogeneous agents may show no tendency to self-equilibrate and will undergo endogenous crises. Economists should concentrate on the emergence of certain patterns. Colander and Kupers suggest that we may be able to nudge the system into "good" basins of attraction. A more radical view is that there are no fixed basins of attraction; these change with the evolution of the system and it is illusory to believe that we can choose good basins. We may be able to recognize and influence the emergence of certain states of the economy, but we are far from Leon Walras's dream of economics as a science like astrophysics."]]></description>
<dc:subject>books:noted book_reviews economics economic_policy complexity kirman.alan macroeconomics in_NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:d7ec2115508e/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:book_reviews"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economic_policy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:complexity"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:kirman.alan"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/distributed/M/bo23464908">
    <title>Macroeconomics: A Critical Companion, Fine, Dimakou</title>
    <dc:date>2016-06-02T01:02:21+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/distributed/M/bo23464908</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Macroeconomics is fundamental to our understanding of how the world functions today. But too often our understanding is based on orthodox, canonized analysis. In this rule-breaking book, Ben Fine and Ourania Dimakou provides an engaging, heterodox primer for those interested in an alternative to mainstream macroeconomic theory and history. From classical theory to the Keynesian revolution and more modern forms including the Monetarist counterrevolution, New Classical Fundamentalism, and New Consensus Macroeconomics, Fine and Dimakou rigorously and comprehensively lay out the theories of mainstream economists, warts and all."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB books:noted economics macroeconomics</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:a7690fa588be/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10612.html">
    <title>Herbst, E.P. and Schorfheide, F.: Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models (eBook and Hardcover).</title>
    <dc:date>2016-01-04T18:09:41+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10612.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become one of the workhorses of modern macroeconomics and are extensively used for academic research as well as forecasting and policy analysis at central banks. This book introduces readers to state-of-the-art computational techniques used in the Bayesian analysis of DSGE models. The book covers Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for linearized DSGE models, novel sequential Monte Carlo methods that can be used for parameter inference, and the estimation of nonlinear DSGE models based on particle filter approximations of the likelihood function. The theoretical foundations of the algorithms are discussed in depth, and detailed empirical applications and numerical illustrations are provided. The book also gives invaluable advice on how to tailor these algorithms to specific applications and assess the accuracy and reliability of the computations."

]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB books:noted econometrics macroeconomics time_series estimation statistics re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:faa593baef93/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:econometrics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:time_series"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:estimation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11229-014-0503-5">
    <title>The ontological status of shocks and trends in macroeconomics - Springer</title>
    <dc:date>2015-12-14T22:53:31+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11229-014-0503-5</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Modern empirical macroeconomic models, known as structural autoregressions (SVARs) are dynamic models that typically claim to represent a causal order among contemporaneously valued variables and to merely represent non-structural (reduced-form) co-occurence between lagged variables and contemporaneous variables. The strategy is held to meet the minimal requirements for identifying the residual errors in particular equations in the model with independent, though otherwise not directly observable, exogenous causes (“shocks”) that ultimately account for change in the model. In nonstationary models, such shocks accumulate so that variables have discernible trends. Econometricians have conceived of variables that trend in sympathy with each other (so-called “cointegrated variables”) as sharing one or more of these unobserved trends as a common cause. It is possible for estimates of the values of both the otherwise unobservable individual shocks and the otherwise unobservable common trends to be backed-out of cointegrated systems of equations. The issue addressed in this paper is whether and in what circumstances these values can be regarded as observations of real entities rather than merely artifacts of the representation of variables in the model. The issue is related, on the one hand, to practical methodological problems in the use of SVARs for policy analysis—e.g., does it make sense to estimate of shocks or trends in one model and then use them as measures of variables in a conceptually distinct model? The issue is also related to debates in the philosophical analysis of causation—particularly, whether we are entitled, as assumed by the developers of Bayes-net approaches, to rely on the causal Markov condition (a generalization of Reichenbach’s common-cause condition) or whether cointegration generates a practical example of Nancy Cartwright’s “byproducts” objection to the causal Markov condition."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB macroeconomics economics time_series hoover.kevin philosophy_of_science causality causal_inference graphical_models have_read</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:444500c53937/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:time_series"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:hoover.kevin"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:philosophy_of_science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:causality"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:causal_inference"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:graphical_models"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://public.econ.duke.edu/~kdh9/Source%20Materials/Research/Reductionism-Economics14May2015.pdf">
    <title>Reductionism in Economics: Intentionality and Eschatological Justification in the Microfoundations of Macroeconomics</title>
    <dc:date>2015-08-03T04:31:42+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://public.econ.duke.edu/~kdh9/Source%20Materials/Research/Reductionism-Economics14May2015.pdf</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Macroeconomists overwhelmingly believe that macroeconomics requires microfoundations, typically understood as a strong eliminativist reductionism. Microfoundations aims to recover intentionality. In the face of technical and data constraints macroeconomists typically employ a representative-agent model, in which a single agent solves microeconomic optimization problem for the whole economy, and take it to be microfoundationally adequate. The characteristic argument for the representative-agent model holds that the possibility of the sequential elaboration of the model to cover any number of individual agents justifies treating the policy conclusions of the single-agent model as practically relevant. This eschatological justification is examined and rejected."]]></description>
<dc:subject>have_read economics reductionism macroeconomics social_science_methodology philosophy_of_science re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks via:jbdelong in_NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:844091280b33/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:reductionism"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_science_methodology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:philosophy_of_science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:jbdelong"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://equitablegrowth.org/2015/06/02/new-economic-thinking-hicks-hansen-wicksell-macro-blocking-back-propagation-induction-unraveling-long-run-omega-point-honest-broker-week-may-31-2015/">
    <title>New Economic Thinking, Hicks-Hansen-Wicksell Macro, and Blocking the Back Propagation Induction-Unraveling from the Long Run Omega Point: The Honest Broker for the Week of May 31, 2015 - Washington Center for Equitable Growth</title>
    <dc:date>2015-06-02T21:49:08+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://equitablegrowth.org/2015/06/02/new-economic-thinking-hicks-hansen-wicksell-macro-blocking-back-propagation-induction-unraveling-long-run-omega-point-honest-broker-week-may-31-2015/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Again, I am puzzled that Brad is puzzled.  In the first place, who actually does backwards induction?  In the second place, this presumes, what is not in evidence, that the long run will be reached, and will be a quantitatively and qualitatively distinct state from a succession of short runs more or less averaged together.  In the third place, even granting those two points (which one shouldn't), the backwards-induction logic would seem to presume that everyone knows when the long run will arrive.  If instead no man knows the hour, well...]]></description>
<dc:subject>economics macroeconomics delong.brad</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:fae31b810f76/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:delong.brad"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://rjwaldmann.blogspot.com/2012/03/modern-macroeconomic-methodology-modern.html">
    <title>Robert's Stochastic thoughts: Modern Macroeconomic Methodology</title>
    <dc:date>2015-05-07T22:51:19+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://rjwaldmann.blogspot.com/2012/03/modern-macroeconomic-methodology-modern.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>social_science_methodology economics macroeconomics waldmann.robert re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:561c14da7ac2/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_science_methodology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:waldmann.robert"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.nber.org/papers/w21021">
    <title>New Evidence on the Impact of Financial Crises in Advanced Countries</title>
    <dc:date>2015-03-18T17:44:33+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.nber.org/papers/w21021</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["This paper examines the aftermath of financial crises in advanced countries in the four decades before the Great Recession. We construct a new series on financial distress in 24 OECD countries for the period 1967–2007. The series is based on assessments of the health of countries’ financial systems from a consistent, real-time narrative source; and it classifies financial distress on a relatively fine scale, rather than treating it as a 0-1 variable. We find that output declines following financial crises in modern advanced countries are highly variable, on average only moderate, and often temporary. One important driver of the variation in outcomes across crises appears to be the severity and persistence of the financial distress itself."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB finance financial_crises macroeconomics economics via:jbdelong</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f5d7571dfa40/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:finance"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financial_crises"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:jbdelong"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/aer_104-5_50-55.pdf">
    <title>Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes (Reinhart and Rogoff)</title>
    <dc:date>2015-03-11T20:13:50+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/aer_104-5_50-55.pdf</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Examining the evolution of real per capita GDP around 100 systemic banking crises reveals that a significant part of the costs of these crises lies in the protracted and halting nature of the recovery. On average it takes about eight years to reach the pre-crisis level of income; the median is about 6.5 years. Five to six years after the onset of the current crisis only Germany and the United States (out of 12 systemic crisis cases) have reached their 2007–2008 peaks in per cap- ita income. In a sample that covers 63 crises in advanced economies and 37 in larger emerging markets, more than 40 percent of the post-crisis episodes experienced double dips. The analysis summarized here adds another dimension to an observation we have been emphasizing on the basis of our earlier work—namely, that the sub- prime crisis is not an anomaly in the context of the pre-WWII era. Postwar business cycles are not the right comparator for the severe crises that have swept advanced economies in recent years."

--- Of course, experience tells us that we can conclude nothing from their papers until someone else has debugged their spreadsheets.]]></description>
<dc:subject>economics financial_crisis_of_2007-- macroeconomics economic_history reinhart.carmen_m. rogoff.kenneth_s.</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:4679c88838dd/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financial_crisis_of_2007--"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economic_history"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:reinhart.carmen_m."/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:rogoff.kenneth_s."/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.lrb.co.uk/v37/n04/simon-wren-lewis/the-austerity-con">
    <title>Simon Wren-Lewis · The Austerity Con · LRB 19 February 2015</title>
    <dc:date>2015-02-16T14:49:41+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.lrb.co.uk/v37/n04/simon-wren-lewis/the-austerity-con</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>economics political_economy economic_policy macroeconomics financial_crisis_of_2007-- have_read</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:75888763c664/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:political_economy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economic_policy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financial_crisis_of_2007--"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.voxeu.org/article/how-good-are-out-sample-forecasting-tests">
    <title>How good are out-of-sample forecasting tests? | VOX, CEPR’s Policy Portal</title>
    <dc:date>2015-01-15T22:26:09+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.voxeu.org/article/how-good-are-out-sample-forecasting-tests</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Out-of-sample forecasting tests are increasingly used to establish the quality of macroeconomic models. This column discusses recent research that assesses what these tests can establish with confidence about macroeconomic models’ specification and forecasting ability. Using a Monte Carlo experiment on a widely used macroeconomic model, the authors find that out-of-sample forecasting tests have weak power against misspecification and forecasting performance. However, an in-sample indirect inference test can be used to establish reliably both the model’s specification quality and its forecasting capacity."

--- Except they don't run tests with _mis-specification_, they run tests with _changes in the parameters_.  I am not at all surprised that the forecasts of the Smets-Wooters DSGE are fairly insensitive to the parameters.  But to see the power of out-of-sample forecasting to detect mis-specification, you'd need to do runs where the data-generating process wasn't a Smets-Wooters DSGE with any parameter setting at all.]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB track_down_references economics macroeconomics econometrics prediction hypothesis_testing re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks have_read via:djm1107</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:8d636cff68ba/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:track_down_references"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:econometrics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:hypothesis_testing"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:djm1107"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.the-tls.co.uk/tls/public/article1501289.ece">
    <title>Debt piled up | TLS</title>
    <dc:date>2015-01-02T18:09:39+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.the-tls.co.uk/tls/public/article1501289.ece</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>book_reviews economics political_economy macroeconomics rauchway.eric have_read</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:06af92945ce2/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:book_reviews"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:political_economy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:rauchway.eric"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.powells.com/biblio?isbn=978-0199392001">
    <title>Hall of Mirrors: The Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the Uses-And Misuses-Of History by Barry Eichengreen - Powell's Books</title>
    <dc:date>2014-11-24T02:11:29+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.powells.com/biblio?isbn=978-0199392001</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["There have been two global financial crises in the past century: the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Recession that began in 2008. Both featured loose credit, precarious real estate and stock market bubbles, suspicious banking practices, an inflexible monetary system, and global imbalances; both had devastating economic consequences. In both cases, people in the prosperous decade preceding the crash believed they were living in a post-volatility economy, one that had tamed the cycle of boom and bust. When the global financial system began to totter in 2008, policymakers were able to draw on the lessons of the Great Depression in order to prevent a repeat, but their response was still inadequate to prevent massive economic turmoil on a global scale.
"In Hall of Mirrors, renowned economist Barry Eichengreen provides the first book-length analysis of the two crises and their aftermaths. Weaving together the narratives of the 30s and recent years, he shows how fear of another Depression greatly informed the policy response after the Lehman Brothers collapse, with both positive and negative results. On the positive side, institutions took the opposite paths that they had during the Depression; government increased spending and cut taxes, and central banks reduced interest rates, flooded the market with liquidity, and coordinated international cooperation. This in large part prevented the bank failures, 25% unemployment rate, and other disasters that characterized the Great Depression. But they all too often hewed too closely and too literally to the lessons of the Depression, seeing it as a mirror rather than focusing on the core differences. Moreover, in their haste to differentiate themselves from their forbears, today's policymakers neglected the constructive but ultimately futile steps that the Federal Reserve took in the 1930s. While the rapidly constructed policies of late 2008 did succeed in staving off catastrophe in the years after, policymakers, institutions, and society as a whole were too eager to get back to normal, even when that meant stunting the recovery via harsh austerity policies and eschewing necessary long-term reforms. The result was a grindingly slow recovery in the US and a devastating recession in Europe."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB economics economic_history macroeconomics great_depression financial_crisis_of_2007-- via:jbdelong books:owned eichengreen.barry books:recommended have_read</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f96f0c7b6742/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economic_history"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:great_depression"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financial_crisis_of_2007--"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:jbdelong"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:owned"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:eichengreen.barry"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:recommended"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.28.4.23">
    <title>JEP (28,4) p. 23 - From Micro to Macro via Production Networks</title>
    <dc:date>2014-11-13T01:39:12+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.28.4.23</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["A modern economy is an intricately linked web of specialized production units, each relying on the flow of inputs from their suppliers to produce their own output which, in turn, is routed towards other downstream units. In this essay, I argue that this network perspective on production linkages can offer novel insights on how local shocks occurring along this production network can propagate across the economy and give rise to aggregate fluctuations. First, I discuss how production networks can be mapped to a standard general equilibrium setup. In particular, through a series of stylized examples, I demonstrate how the propagation of sectoral shocks—and hence aggregate volatility—depends on different arrangements of production, that is, on different "shapes" of the underlying production network. Next I explore, from a network perspective, the empirical properties of a large-scale production network as given by detailed US input-output data. Finally I address how theory and data on production networks can be usefully combined to shed light on comovement and aggregate fluctuations."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB economics macroeconomics networks input-output_analysis</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:5ff0c99bff9e/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:networks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:input-output_analysis"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.nber.org/papers/w20517">
    <title>Reconstructing Macroeconomic Theory to Manage Economic Policy</title>
    <dc:date>2014-10-02T16:13:11+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.nber.org/papers/w20517</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Macroeconomics has not done well in recent years: The standard models didn't predict the Great Recession; and even said it couldn't happen. After the bubble burst, the models did not predict the full consequences.
"The paper traces the failures to the attempts, beginning in the 1970s, to reconcile macro and microeconomics, by making the former adopt the standard competitive micro-models that were under attack even then, from theories of imperfect and asymmetric information, game theory, and behavioral economics.
"The paper argues that any theory of deep downturns has to answer these questions: What is the source of the disturbances? Why do seemingly small shocks have such large effects? Why do deep downturns last so long? Why is there such persistence, when we have the same human, physical, and natural resources today as we had before the crisis?
"The paper presents a variety of hypotheses which provide answers to these questions, and argues that models based on these alternative assumptions have markedly different policy implications, including large multipliers. It explains why the apparent liquidity trap today is markedly different from that envisioned by Keynes in the Great Depression, and why the Zero Lower Bound is not the central impediment to the effectiveness of monetary policy in restoring the economy to full employment."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB to_read macroeconomics economics stiglitz.joseph financial_crisis_of_2007--</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:ef65dac82fed/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:stiglitz.joseph"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financial_crisis_of_2007--"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207097000307">
    <title>Forecasting economic time series using flexible versus fixed specification and linear versus nonlinear econometric models</title>
    <dc:date>2014-09-24T22:05:17+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207097000307</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Nine macroeconomic variables are forecast in a real-time scenario using a variety of flexible specification, fixed specification, linear, and nonlinear econometric models. All models are allowed to evolve through time, and our analysis focuses on model selection and performance. In the context of real-time forecasts, flexible specification models (including linear autoregressive models with exogenous variables and nonlinear artificial neural networks) appear to offer a useful and viable alternative to less flexible fixed specification linear models for a subset of the economic variables which we examine, particularly at forecast horizons greater than 1-step ahead. We speculate that one reason for this result is that the economy is evolving (rather slowly) over time. This feature cannot easily be captured by fixed specification linear models, however, and manifests itself in the form of evolving coefficient estimates. We also provide additional evidence supporting the claim that models which ‘win’ based on one model selection criterion (say a squared error measure) do not necessarily win when an alternative selection criterion is used (say a confusion rate measure), thus highlighting the importance of the particular cost function which is used by forecasters and ‘end-users’ to evaluate their models. A wide variety of different model selection criteria and statistical tests are used to illustrate our findings."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB economics macroeconomics prediction white.halbert to_read re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:e879a5ffa04e/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:white.halbert"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/07/20/state-macroeconomics-good-monday-focus-july-21-2014/">
    <title>The State of Macroeconomics? Not Good...: Monday Focus for July 21, 2014 | Washington Center for Equitable Growth</title>
    <dc:date>2014-07-22T01:07:15+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://equitablegrowth.org/2014/07/20/state-macroeconomics-good-monday-focus-july-21-2014/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>macroeconomics social_science_methodology economics re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:0eea229477af/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_science_methodology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://angrybearblog.com/2014/07/25621.html">
    <title>Angry Bear » Comment on Del Negro, Giannoni &amp; Schorfheide (2014)</title>
    <dc:date>2014-07-15T16:59:30+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://angrybearblog.com/2014/07/25621.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["My objection is that, since in practice all deviations between micro founded models and an ad hoc aggregate models are bugs not features, what possible use could there ever be in micro founding models."]]></description>
<dc:subject>macroeconomics financial_crisis_of_2007-- economics dsges re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks social_science_methodology have_read</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:eaa91198fa16/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financial_crisis_of_2007--"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:dsges"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_science_methodology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:have_read"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.104.7.2185">
    <title>AER (104,7) p. 2185 - Mafia and Public Spending: Evidence on the Fiscal Multiplier from a Quasi-experiment</title>
    <dc:date>2014-06-28T13:25:58+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.104.7.2185</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["A law issued to combat political corruption and Mafia infiltration of city councils in Italy has resulted in episodes of large, unanticipated, temporary contractions in local public spending. Using these episodes as instruments, we estimate the output multiplier of spending cuts at provincial level—controlling for national monetary and fiscal policy, and holding the tax burden of local residents constant—to be 1.5. Assuming that lagged spending is exogenous to current output brings the estimate of the overall multiplier up to 1.9. These results suggest that local spending adjustment may be quite consequential for local activity."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB economics macroeconomics italy crime corruption</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:de66473f14fa/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:italy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:crime"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:corruption"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.e-elgar.co.uk/bookentry_main.lasso?id=1975">
    <title>The Aggregate Production Function And The Measurement Of Technical Change by Jesus Felipe, John S.L. McCombie, - Edward Elgar Publishing</title>
    <dc:date>2014-05-30T11:22:30+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.e-elgar.co.uk/bookentry_main.lasso?id=1975</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["This authoritative and stimulating book represents a fundamental critique of the aggregate production function, a concept widely used in macroeconomics.
"The authors explain why, despite the serious aggregation problems that surround it, aggregate production functions often give plausible statistical results. This is due to the use of constant-price value data, rather than the theoretically correct physical data, together with an underlying accounting identity that relates the data definitionally. It is in this sense that the aggregate production function is ‘not even wrong’: it is not a behavioural relationship capable of being statistically refuted. The book examines the history of the production function and shows how certain seminal works on neoclassical growth theory, labour demand functions and estimates of the mark-up, among others, suffer from this fundamental problem.
"The book represents a fundamental critique of the aggregate production function and will be of interest to all macroeconomists."]]></description>
<dc:subject>books:noted economics macroeconomics econometrics via:jacobin in_NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:bab8aadfb906/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:econometrics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:jacobin"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://sociology.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/faculty/fligstein/Why%20the%20Federal%20Reserve%20Failed%20to%20See%20the%20Crisis%20of%202008%20v.2.6.pdf">
    <title>Why the Federal Reserve Failed to See the Financial Crisis of 2008: The Role of “Macroeconomics” as a Sensemaking and Cultural Frame</title>
    <dc:date>2014-03-06T23:17:08+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://sociology.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/faculty/fligstein/Why%20the%20Federal%20Reserve%20Failed%20to%20See%20the%20Crisis%20of%202008%20v.2.6.pdf</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["One of the puzzles about the financial crisis of 2008 is why the regulators were so slow to recognize the impending collapse of the financial system. In this, paper, we propose a novel account of what happened. We analyze the meeting transcripts of the Federal Reserve’s main decision-making body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), to show that they had surprisingly little recognition that there was a serious financial crisis brewing as late as December 2007. This lack of awareness was a function of the inability of the FOMC to connect the unfolding events into a narrative reflecting the links between the housing market, the subprime mortgage market, and the financial instruments being used to package the mortgages into securities. We use the idea of sensemaking to explain how this happened. The Fed’s main analytic framework for making sense of the economy, macroeconomic theory, made it difficult for them to connect the disparate events that comprised the financial crisis into a coherent whole. We use topic modeling to analyze transcripts of FOMC meetings held between 2000 and 2007, demonstrating that the framework provided by macroeconomics dominated FOMC conversations throughout this period. The topic models also show that each of the issues involved in the crisis remained a separate discussion and were never connected together. A close reading of the texts supports this argument. We conclude with implications for future such crises and for thinking about culture and sensemaking more generally."

- Topic models FTW.]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB to_read topic_models text_mining macroeconomics economic_policy economics sociology social_life_of_the_mind groupthink via:jbdelong ideology</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:e25393650a3b/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_read"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:topic_models"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:text_mining"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economic_policy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:sociology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_life_of_the_mind"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:groupthink"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:jbdelong"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:ideology"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.104.3.753">
    <title>AER (104,3) p. 753 - Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from US Regions</title>
    <dc:date>2014-03-03T17:22:01+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.104.3.753</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["We use rich historical data on military procurement to estimate the effects of government spending. We exploit regional variation in military build-ups to estimate an "open economy relative multiplier" of approximately 1.5. We develop a framework for interpreting this estimate and relating it to estimates of the standard closed economy aggregate multiplier. The latter is highly sensitive to how strongly aggregate monetary and tax policy "leans against the wind." Our open economy relative multiplier "differences out" these effects because monetary and tax policies are uniform across the nation. Our evidence indicates that demand shocks can have large effects on output."

--- A multiplier of 1.5 would indeed means that "demand shocks can have large effects on output"...]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB economics macroeconomics</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:8ab5da836a58/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.104.2.379">
    <title>AER (104,2) p. 379 - A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector</title>
    <dc:date>2014-02-03T19:54:26+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.104.2.379</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["This article studies the full equilibrium dynamics of an economy with financial frictions. Due to highly nonlinear amplification effects, the economy is prone to instability and occasionally enters volatile crisis episodes. Endogenous risk, driven by asset illiquidity, persists in crisis even for very low levels of exogenous risk. This phenomenon, which we call the volatility paradox, resolves the Kocherlakota (2000) critique. Endogenous leverage determines the distance to crisis. Securitization and derivatives contracts that improve risk sharing may lead to higher leverage and more frequent crises."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB economics macroeconomics financial_crisis_of_2007-- re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:1d1ccc0b47b7/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financial_crisis_of_2007--"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/the-equation-at-core-of-modern-macro.html">
    <title>Noahpinion: The equation at the core of modern macro</title>
    <dc:date>2014-01-15T20:02:29+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/the-equation-at-core-of-modern-macro.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[In defense of the Euler equation (*): why assume that the Fed funds rate / risk-free loan interest rate is the rate of time preference, or even closely correlated with the rate of time preference?  Surely the r.o.t.p. is at most one component of even the risk-free interest rate.  (I believe I am stealing this argument from J. W. Mason.)  --- The point about checking intermediate parts of the model is however entirely sound (and not handled just by doing a generalized-method-of-moments estimate for each equation).]]></description>
<dc:subject>economics macroeconomics re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks social_science_methodology model_checking</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:2a0f0469051b/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_science_methodology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:model_checking"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/~gean/art/p1358.pdf">
    <title>Getting at Systemic Risk Via an Agent-Based Model of the Housing Market</title>
    <dc:date>2014-01-10T19:35:27+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/~gean/art/p1358.pdf</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[No abstract; see summary of discussion at a conference here
http://www.mfmgroup.org/session-2-76.html (the comments by the rather conventional macro/finance guys are not very illuminating but at least not blankly hostile):

"The authors build an "agent-based" model of the housing market in metropolitan Washington, D.C. over the 1997-2009 period. The goal of the present paper is to build a model that can reproduce many of the facts of the housing boom and bust during the most recent episode, and especially how they relate to interest rates and leverage. 
"The strategy is an "agent-based" one; although all economic models feature "agents," Howitt observes that the term comes from computer science and multiple-agent systems, in which an agent is an autonomous piece of software that interacts with others in ex ante unforeseeable ways. The advantage of such an approach is that it need not assume the existence of an equilibrium; one might emerge endogenously, in which case it can be inspected, or it might not.
"In this sense, the first "agent-based" models in economics were the simple location models used by Thomas Schelling to show how very slight preferences for living near others of the same race can lead to drastically segregated communities. Schelling's model was meant to be qualitative, but agent-based models have also been applied quantitatively, to model traffic behavior in cities or to predict mortgage refinancing. 
"An advantage of the agent-based approach, other than the obvious one of being an additional tool with which to tackle the problem, is that it can directly account for heterogeneity among agents in ways that equilibrium-based models frequently cannot for computational or tractability reasons. This is especially 
valuable in the data-rich setting of the current project; although the authors lack complete individual-level panel data of all variables of interest, they are able to include household-level transaction data, loan-level performance data, data on individual house listings, anonymized tax-return data, Census data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the American Community Survey, as well as standard aggregate variables. 
"The model simulates income, wealth, housing, and financial decisions of 22,000 households (a 100:1 scale for Washington, D.C.) as well as the distribution of housing quality (defined as the sale price relative to the Case-Shiller index) and the foreclosure and sale decisions of a representative aggregate bank over the years 1997-2009, taking as given demographics, the income process, the housing stock (there is no construction in the model), and bank behavior (including interest rates, types of loans, and credit constraints). Rather than picking all parameters to fit target data moments as in the usual calibration exercise, the authors calibrate individual model components separately using micro-data, and then throw them all together in the simulation and see what happens. 
"In summary, after briefly describing households' desired housing expenditure, one of the many components of the model, Howitt presented a comprehensive "dashboard" of the model's predictions for the 1997-2009 period after running a 100-year \burn-in" simulation period to allow the model to reach a steady state. The model faithfully reproduces the boom and bust and housing prices, as well as the ratio of sold price to initial list price, but fails to match home-ownership rates or the number of house listings. The real strength of the approach, however, is the ability to run counterfactuals; the same model in which leverage constraints are drawn from their 1997 distribution, rather than relaxing as they did in the data, eliminates most of the run- up in house prices in the simulation. A comparable exercise fixing interest rates at their 1997 distribution eliminates some of the bubble, but not nearly as much of it. "]]></description>
<dc:subject>economics macroeconomics agent-based_models geanakoplos.john farmer.doyne axtell.robert finance mortgage_crisis in_NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:7e33d73998b5/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:agent-based_models"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:geanakoplos.john"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:farmer.doyne"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:axtell.robert"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:finance"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:mortgage_crisis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.104.1.27">
    <title>AER (104,1) p. 27 - Risk Shocks</title>
    <dc:date>2014-01-03T19:53:00+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.104.1.27</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["We augment a standard monetary dynamic general equilibrium model to include a Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist financial accelerator mechanism. We fit the model to US data, allowing the volatility of cross-sectional idiosyncratic uncertainty to fluctuate over time. We refer to this measure of volatility as risk. We find that fluctuations in risk are the most important shock driving the business cycle."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB macroeconomics economics re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:569c448206e4/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/REST_a_00359">
    <title>Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Models</title>
    <dc:date>2014-01-02T00:48:20+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/REST_a_00359</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["This paper uses multilevel factor models to characterize within- and between-block variations as well as idiosyncratic noise in large dynamic panels. Block-level shocks are distinguished from genuinely common shocks, and the estimated block-level factors are easy to interpret. The framework achieves dimension reduction and yet explicitly allows for heterogeneity between blocks. The model is estimated using an MCMC algorithm that takes into account the hierarchical structure of the factors. The importance of block-level variations is illustrated in a four-level model estimated on a panel of 445 series related to different categories of real activity in the United States."]]></description>
<dc:subject>time_series inference_to_latent_objects economics macroeconomics factor_analysis hierarchical_statistical_models statistics re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks in_NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:3c88c67e06a7/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:time_series"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:inference_to_latent_objects"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:factor_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:hierarchical_statistical_models"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:statistics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2013/12/microfoundations-we-like-vs-microfoundations-we-can-solve.html">
    <title>Worthwhile Canadian Initiative: Microfoundations we like vs microfoundations we can solve</title>
    <dc:date>2013-12-20T14:32:29+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2013/12/microfoundations-we-like-vs-microfoundations-we-can-solve.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[I fail to see why conclusion #4 is not altogether correct, and if it's outside the current comfort zone and skill-set of economists, well, that's just sad.]]></description>
<dc:subject>economics macroeconomics social_science_methodology agent-based_models simulation via:jbdelong to:blog</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:1357df5cfb2f/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:social_science_methodology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:agent-based_models"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:simulation"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:jbdelong"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:blog"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.51.4.1120">
    <title>JEL (51,4) p. 1120 - Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling</title>
    <dc:date>2013-12-12T16:41:25+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.51.4.1120</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["This paper provides a survey of business cycle facts, updated to take account of recent data. Emphasis is given to the Great Recession, which was unlike most other postwar recessions in the United States in being driven by deleveraging and financial market factors. We document how recessions with financial market origins are different from those driven by supply or monetary policy shocks. This helps explain why economic models and predictors that work well at some times do poorly at other times. We discuss challenges for forecasters and empirical researchers in light of the updated business cycle facts."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB economics macroeconomics financial_crisis_of_2007-- time_series re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:27b879922b58/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financial_crisis_of_2007--"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:time_series"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/REST_a_00374">
    <title>Expectations and Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Survey Data</title>
    <dc:date>2013-10-01T16:33:05+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/REST_a_00374</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Using survey-based measures of future U.S. economic activity from the Livingston Survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we study how changes in expectations and their interaction with monetary policy contribute to fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates. We find that changes in expected future economic activity are a quantitatively important driver of economic fluctuations: a perception that good times are ahead typically leads to a significant rise in current measures of economic activity and inflation. We also find that the short-term interest rate rises in response to expectations of good times as monetary policy tightens."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB economics macroeconomics re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:42dd490c9a95/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.103.5.1697">
    <title>Carvalho, Vasco, and Xavier Gabaix. 2013. &quot;The Great Diversification and Its Undoing.&quot; American Economic Review, 103(5): 1697-1727</title>
    <dc:date>2013-08-07T15:24:33+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.103.5.1697</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["We investigate the hypothesis that macroeconomic fluctuations are primitively the results of many microeconomic shocks. We define fundamental volatility as the volatility that would arise from an economy made entirely of idiosyncratic sectoral or firm-level shocks. Fundamental volatility accounts for the swings in macroeconomic volatility in the major world economies in the past half-century. It accounts for the "great moderation" and its undoing. The initial great moderation is due to a decreasing share of manufacturing between 1975 and 1985. The recent rise of macroeconomic volatility is chiefly due to the growth of the financial sector."

- I kind of like the idea, but that if anything means I need to examine it even more skeptically.]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB economics macroeconomics financial_crisis_of_2007-- financialization gabaix.xavier color_me_skeptical</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:3c86c7a1882f/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financial_crisis_of_2007--"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financialization"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:gabaix.xavier"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:color_me_skeptical"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/what-can-you-do-with-dsge-model.html">
    <title>Noahpinion: What can you do with a DSGE model?</title>
    <dc:date>2013-05-28T18:50:33+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/what-can-you-do-with-dsge-model.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>macroeconomics prediction bad_data_analysis smith.noah re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:4bb6fa35d2c9/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:prediction"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bad_data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:smith.noah"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo15233037">
    <title>Political Arithmetic: Simon Kuznets and the Empirical Tradition in Economics, Fogel, Fogel, Guglielmo</title>
    <dc:date>2013-05-01T00:40:46+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo15233037</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["We take for granted today that the assessments, measurements, and forecasts of economists are crucial to the decision-making of governments and businesses alike. But less than a century ago that wasn’t the case—economists simply didn’t have the necessary information or statistical tools to understand the ever more complicated modern economy.
"With Political Arithmetic, Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Fogel and his collaborators tell the story of economist Simon Kuznets, the founding of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the creation of the concept of GNP, which for the first time enabled us to measure the performance of entire economies."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB books:noted economics history_of_economics history_of_science 20th_century_history kuznet.simon econometrics macroeconomics</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:ba8b4f3c1236/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to:NB"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:history_of_economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:history_of_science"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:20th_century_history"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:kuznet.simon"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:econometrics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.nextnewdeal.net/rortybomb/researchers-finally-replicated-reinhart-rogoff-and-there-are-serious-problems">
    <title>Researchers Finally Replicated Reinhart-Rogoff, and There Are Serious Problems. | Next New Deal</title>
    <dc:date>2013-04-16T19:38:03+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.nextnewdeal.net/rortybomb/researchers-finally-replicated-reinhart-rogoff-and-there-are-serious-problems</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[I am speechless.  Also: final exam in undergrad ADA?]]></description>
<dc:subject>bad_data_analysis economic_policy economic_growth economics macroeconomics the_spreadsheet_menace reinhart.carmen why_oh_why_cant_we_have_a_better_intelligentsia to_teach:undergrad-ADA rogoff.kenneth_s.</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:90d7fd5864ae/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:bad_data_analysis"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economic_policy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economic_growth"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:the_spreadsheet_menace"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:reinhart.carmen"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:why_oh_why_cant_we_have_a_better_intelligentsia"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:to_teach:undergrad-ADA"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:rogoff.kenneth_s."/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-swamp-of-dsge-despair.html">
    <title>Noahpinion: The swamps of DSGE despair</title>
    <dc:date>2013-03-29T16:22:08+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-swamp-of-dsge-despair.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Shorter Noah: With notably rare exceptions, economics is a progressive scientific discipline.]]></description>
<dc:subject>economics macroeconomics re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:e6b88d0c37bf/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.interfluidity.com/v2/4218.html">
    <title>interfluidity » K is not capital, L is not labor</title>
    <dc:date>2013-03-18T20:51:42+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.interfluidity.com/v2/4218.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[The fundamental point here is about the non-triviality of linking the theoretical variables in something like standard macroeconomic models to the quantities we actually measure.]]></description>
<dc:subject>economics economic_policy evisceration modeling chamley.christophe via:slaniel macroeconomics waldman.steven_randy</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:2040be280318/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economic_policy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:evisceration"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:modeling"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:chamley.christophe"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:via:slaniel"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:waldman.steven_randy"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://slackwire.blogspot.com/2013/02/aggregate-demand-in-long-run.html">
    <title>The Slack Wire: Reviving the Knife-Edge: Aggregate Demand in the Long Run</title>
    <dc:date>2013-02-27T17:03:28+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://slackwire.blogspot.com/2013/02/aggregate-demand-in-long-run.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>macroeconomics economics economic_growth track_down_references</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:a87962b9ca19/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economic_growth"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:track_down_references"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.cambridge.org/us/knowledge/isbn/item6852611/?site_locale=en_US">
    <title>Transforming Modern Macroeconomics: Exploring Disequilibrium Microfoundations, 1956–2003</title>
    <dc:date>2013-02-09T19:32:50+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.cambridge.org/us/knowledge/isbn/item6852611/?site_locale=en_US</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["This book tells the story of the search for disequilibrium micro-foundations for macroeconomic theory, from the disequilibrium theories of Patinkin, Clower, and Leijonhufvud to recent dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with imperfect competition. Placing this search against the background of wider developments in macroeconomics, the authors contend that this was never a single research program, but involved economists with very different aims who developed the basic ideas about quantity constraints, spillover effects, and coordination failures in different ways. The authors contrast this with the equilibrium, market-clearing approach of Phelps and Lucas, arguing that equilibrium theories simply assumed away the problems that had motivated the disequilibrium literature. Although market-clearing models came to dominate macroeconomics, disequilibrium theories never went away and continue to exert an important influence on the subject. Although this book focuses on one strand in modern macroeconomics, it is crucial to understanding the origins of modern macroeconomic theory."]]></description>
<dc:subject>books:noted economics macroeconomics re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks in_NB</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:abc908d35fce/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:books:noted"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:re:your_favorite_dsge_sucks"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:in_NB"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2013/01/rough-transcript-stimulus-or-stymied-the-macroeconomics-of-recessions.html">
    <title>Brad DeLong : ROUGH TRANSCRIPT: Stimulus or Stymied?: The Macroeconomics of Recessions</title>
    <dc:date>2013-01-19T16:20:39+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2013/01/rough-transcript-stimulus-or-stymied-the-macroeconomics-of-recessions.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Uhlig's performance here, at least as presented through the transcript, is rather disappointing.]]></description>
<dc:subject>economics macroeconomics economic_policy financial_crisis_of_2007-- krugman.paul delong.brad uhlig.harald</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:0b52a853eec6/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:macroeconomics"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:economic_policy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:financial_crisis_of_2007--"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:krugman.paul"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:delong.brad"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/t:uhlig.harald"/>
</rdf:Bag></taxo:topics>
</item>
<item rdf:about="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/05/ideology-and-economics/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&amp;seid=auto">
    <title>Ideology and Economics - NYTimes.com</title>
    <dc:date>2013-01-05T19:23:26+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/05/ideology-and-economics/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&amp;seid=auto</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["OK, here’s how I read the Gordon and Dahl results: what they show is that most of what economists do is indeed fairly objective and non-ideological; business-cycle macro, although it’s not at all like that, is a small enough part of the academic field that their data don’t pick it up.
"Unfortunately, while business-cycle macro may not be a large part of what economists do, it’s a field that matters a lot – especially with the world still facing its worst economic crisis in three generations.
"And business-cycle macro is also, I’d argue, more important to the field of economics in general than most economists themselves realize.
"Long ago I stumbled on an analogy that still seems relevant to me: business-cycle macro is to economics in general in something like the way that nuclear bombs (and to some extent, to be fair, nuclear power) are to high-energy physics. I’m sure that very few physicists working on the mysteries of the universe trouble themselves at all thinking about how to make things go boom. Yet the reason the field continues to receive public funding is in large part precisely the fact that once upon a time physicists did, indeed, find a way to make things go boom, and you never know what they might come up with in the future.
"Similarly, while the vast majority of economists may work on issues far removed from the question of what to do in a depression, an important part of our field’s prestige and the support it receives comes from the perception that economists do indeed have useful advice to offer in times of depression, and may come up with more useful advice in the future.
"And if the perception spreads, instead, that business-cycle macro is just ideological posturing, that influential economists choose their doctrines to suit their political prejudices, and that the field not only fails to progress but sometimes actually retrogresses, this will be bad for the profession as well as the world."]]></description>
<dc:subject>economics macroeconomics ideology science_as_a_social_process economic_policy financial_crisis_of_2007-- krugman.paul</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
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