https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/public/ recent bookmarks from cshalizi 2026-04-09T13:11:47+00:00 https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20240246 cshalizi decision_theory misspecification re:bayes_as_evol statistics in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f59185400440/ 2025-04-14T15:38:24+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.11709 cshalizi to:NB conformal_prediction gelman.andrew kith_and_kin via:rvenkat decision_theory decision-making https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:55bcde83ad7f/ 2024-08-21T17:38:25+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/2408.02841 cshalizi calibration probability prediction decision_theory scoring_rules in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:c76f79ade534/ 2023-12-10T02:33:04+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.17651# cshalizi prediction decision_theory low-regret_learning roth.aaron conformal_prediction in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:1d91278c068d/ 2023-11-09T19:19:41+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.05921 cshalizi to_read conformal_prediction decision_theory jordan.michael_i. via:rvenkat in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:3f36ce96d5e8/ 2023-06-29T16:01:22+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.01802 cshalizi to_read decision_theory causal_inference kennedy.edward_h. kith_and_kin re:codename:one_law_for_the_lion_and_ox_is_oppression in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:c25bcb7497ec/ 2022-07-10T23:44:35+00:00 http://frankackerman.com/worst-case-economics/ cshalizi in_NB books:noted economics decision_theory risk_vs_uncertainty books:suggest_to_library https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f8161043878a/ 2022-03-25T18:56:36+00:00 https://www.jmlr.org/papers/v23/20-1165.html cshalizi to_read prediction sufficiency decision_theory reinforcement_learning in_NB downloaded via:mraginsky https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:5485a68d723d/ 2022-02-08T14:31:56+00:00 https://mkcamara.github.io/ctc.pdf cshalizi decision_theory heuristics computational_complexity bounded_rationality via:suresh re:in_soviet_union_optimization_problem_solves_you have_read in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:e9d5e55ce330/ 2021-08-30T14:48:17+00:00 https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20180517 cshalizi to:NB decision_theory climate_change https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:5ec33f34551f/ 2021-08-05T02:56:36+00:00 https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.35.3.157 cshalizi to:NB to_read statistics hypothesis_testing confidence_sets decision_theory https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:e1aad5699696/ 2021-05-08T13:17:33+00:00 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3444678 cshalizi to:NB causal_inference experimental_design decision_theory via:arthegall https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:104863fd3ea6/ 2021-04-22T15:19:54+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.10573 cshalizi to:NB causal_inference missing_data decision_theory color_me_skeptical https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:6d219f0c104a/ 2021-04-16T20:13:56+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.01115 cshalizi to:NB decision_theory risk_vs_uncertainty to_read https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:b721c477deff/ 2021-04-14T14:30:38+00:00 https://www.pnas.org/content/118/15/e2022886118 cshalizi climate_change decision_theory partial_identification modeling have_read to_blog in_NB manski.charles_f. https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:48bbbb0df653/ 2021-03-30T12:25:43+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.05873 cshalizi to:NB reinforcement_learning low-regret_learning boots.byron gordon.geoff learning_theory decision_theory https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:e96a27d919c0/ 2021-01-28T17:28:45+00:00 https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20190390 cshalizi to:NB economics decision_theory epicycles_multiplication_thereof why_not_choose_to_be_happy endogenous_preferences transformative_treatments https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:4d61a2a1fbd8/ 2020-12-16T19:47:18+00:00 https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/evolutionary-human-sciences/article/fitnessmaximizers-employ-pessimistic-probability-weighting-for-decisions-under-risk/FCF743180A566332C8AF9F7E7406AB43 cshalizi to:NB decision-making decision_theory evolutionary_biology evolution_of_cognition https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:375d11c1ccb8/ 2020-07-15T20:51:56+00:00 https://wwnorton.com/books/9781324004776/about-the-book/description cshalizi to:NB books:noted decision_theory risk_vs_uncertainty popular_social_science https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:bfce5073cfe4/ 2020-01-30T23:56:30+00:00 https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/economics/econometrics-statistics-and-mathematical-economics/ignorance-and-uncertainty?format=PB cshalizito:NB books:noted decision_theory economics books:suggest_to_library https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:5a7f36f11016/ 2019-12-06T17:57:25+00:00 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-019-0732-0 cshalizi economics ergodic_theory decision_theory my_initial_skeptical_coloration_became_on_examination_a_permanent_stain https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:1ed7cdb276ce/ 2019-09-24T05:44:29+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.06853 cshalizi decision]. An SDF need not perform statistical inference; that is, it need not use data to draw conclusions about the true state of nature. Inference-based SDFs have the sequential form [data -> inference -> decision]. This paper motivates inference-based SDFs as practical procedures for decision making that may accomplish some of what Wald envisioned. The paper first addresses binary choice problems, where all SDFs may be viewed as hypothesis tests. It next considers as-if optimization, which uses a point estimate of the true state as if the estimate were accurate. It then extends this idea to as-if maximin and minimax-regret decisions, which use point estimates of some features of the true state as if they were accurate. The paper primarily uses finite-sample maximum regret to evaluate the performance of inference-based SDFs. To illustrate abstract ideas, it presents specific findings concerning treatment choice and point prediction with sample data."]]> to:NB decision_theory statistics to_read manski.charles_f. https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:b39b67dcce94/ 2019-06-23T17:11:02+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.07801 cshalizi to:NB hypothesis_testing statistics information_theory decision_theory grunwald.peter kelly_gambling https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:00aba69e82c1/ 2019-06-17T22:15:31+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.04118 cshalizi to:NB to_read learning_theory large_deviations decision_theory statistics to_teach:childs_garden_of_statistical_learning_theory https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:cc69f34c2117/ 2018-12-13T05:10:16+00:00 http://danielcsaba.com/content/bayes_miss_Oct2018.pdf cshalizi to:NB to_read bayesian_consistency decision_theory statistics https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:00a9ce518d83/ 2018-10-30T17:56:40+00:00 http://www.pnas.org/content/115/44/E10387?etoc= cshalizi collective_cognition collective_action decision_theory re:democratic_cognition in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f0ceeebd885c/ 2018-08-24T14:40:28+00:00 https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/09/vietnam-war-cambodia-ellsberg-pentagon-papers-kissinger cshalizius_military american_hegemony irrationalism decision_theory moral_psychology kissinger.henry ellsberg.daniel have_read vietnam_war https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:72a54211deea/ 2018-01-24T23:23:17+00:00 https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20161079 cshalizi to:NB decision_theory economics https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:08a285c73955/ 2017-10-13T00:38:23+00:00 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11238-017-9600-5 cshalizi to:NB decision-making decision_theory bounded_rationality https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:1e9e1fccbc84/ 2017-08-08T17:13:00+00:00 http://www.pnas.org/content/114/32/8499.abstract.html cshalizi to:NB decision-making decision_theory https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:87b86cedc8af/ 2017-07-31T16:02:18+00:00 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11238-017-9592-1?wt_mc=alerts.TOCjournals cshalizi to:NB decision-making decision_theory bounded_rationality manski.charles_f. https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:081bad7b9eb8/ 2017-07-10T07:12:41+00:00 http://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/R/bo3639393.html cshalizi books:noted to:NB history_of_science history_of_ideas political_philosophy economics political_economy cold_war game_theory decision_theory https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:d9cfdc5b10a0/ 2017-03-21T04:15:14+00:00 http://www.jstor.org/stable/1884324?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents cshalizi to:NB decision_theory probability bayesianism ellsberg.daniel rationality https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:e7e72458dccd/ 2016-12-13T14:40:44+00:00 https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2729537 cshalizi to:NB statistics bayesian_consistency misspecification decision_theory https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:faa7a13edadd/ 2016-09-08T20:49:36+00:00 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11229-015-0846-6?wt_mc=alerts.TOCjournals cshalizi to:NB epistemology decision_theory rationality https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:3b0ea103ed79/ 2016-08-30T21:57:54+00:00 https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20150678 cshalizi to:NB decision_theory social_choice risk_vs_uncertainty re:knightian_uncertainty https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:818e0cbacb75/ 2016-05-31T14:25:55+00:00 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11238-015-9526-8 cshalizi decision_theory low-regret_learning halpern.joseph_y. in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:aedebf5be7d2/ 2016-05-04T02:54:39+00:00 http://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/143718406034/the-future-of-humanity-institute-seems-very cshalizidecision_theory utter_stupidity https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:b8119e6a570c/ 2015-07-11T02:53:15+00:00 https://orgtheory.wordpress.com/2015/06/26/picking-the-right-metric-from-college-ratings-to-the-cold-war/#more-29713 cshalizihave_read decision_theory operations_research optimization economics but_what_do_i_optimize history_of_science RAND single_vision_and_newtons_sleep to:blog https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:3b396413a4b6/ 2014-12-04T15:25:04+00:00 http://laeuferpaar.de/Papers/ExpertsGroupDecisions.pdf cshalizi to_read collective_cognition re:democratic_cognition decision_theory in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:e42e4b9ea2d8/ 2014-11-25T02:19:45+00:00 http://mitpress.mit.edu/books/rational-action cshalizi books:noted decision_theory statistics economics history_of_science cold_war WWII optimization in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:4921051f048e/ 2014-11-13T01:33:43+00:00 https://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.28.4.213 cshalizi decision_theory economics moral_philosophy cold_war schelling.thomas cost-benefit_analysis asking_the_egg_what_it_would_give_to_not_be_in_the_omlet in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f1c5a600091a/ 2014-08-01T18:33:53+00:00 http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cp/p10b/p1053.pdf cshalizi decision_theory risk_vs_uncertainty economics re:knightian_uncertainty bewley.truman in_NB have_read to:blog via:mraginsky https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:50ffc098f332/ 2014-07-22T17:31:46+00:00 http://statweb.stanford.edu/~cgates/PERSI/papers/thinking.pdf cshalizi to_read decision_theory bounded_rationality rationality epistemology diaconis.persi foundations_of_statistics to:blog https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:1d372229f62e/ 2014-07-19T14:43:24+00:00 http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/bitwise/2014/07/roko_s_basilisk_the_most_terrifying_thought_experiment_of_all_time.single.html cshaliziutter_stupidity decision_theory the_rapture_for_nerds moral_philosophy psychoceramics auerbach.david blogged lesswrong impressive_act_what_do_you_call_yourselves_the_rationalists https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:c0cf310af56c/ 2014-07-12T01:02:51+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1406.7563 cshalizi to_read collective_cognition re:democratic_cognition prediction decision_theory via:henry_farrell in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:2ead13c2c666/ 2014-07-08T03:22:38+00:00 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11238-013-9393-0 cshalizi to:NB heuristics decision_theory cognitive_science gigerenzer.gerd https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:7016a155d2ee/ 2014-06-15T15:19:26+00:00 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11229-013-0286-0 cshalizi to:NB bayesianism decision_theory have_read my_initial_skeptical_coloration_became_on_examination_a_permanent_stain https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:19c99766b6c3/ 2014-03-31T19:00:28+00:00 http://journal.sjdm.org/14/14206/jdm14206.html cshalizi to:NB experimental_psychology decision_theory heuristics cognitive_science https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:931d2c25a5b2/ 2014-03-08T22:28:11+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1402.6118 cshalizi to:NB robustness misspecification decision_theory statistics https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:e2ba3b28fa4a/ 2014-02-24T17:43:31+00:00 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11229-014-0398-1 cshalizi to:NB rationality decision_theory have_skimmed https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:5afecf36b5a3/ 2014-02-21T19:18:55+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1402.4884 cshalizi to_read statistics learning_theory sufficiency decision_theory in_NB entableted https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:c0b08809acbb/ 2014-02-20T21:05:29+00:00 http://global.oup.com/academic/product/risk-and-rationality-9780199672165 cshalizi books:noted rationality decision_theory risk_vs_uncertainty in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:a8564f976938/ 2014-01-16T00:01:55+00:00 http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-statistics-022513-115553 cshalizi decision_theory sequential_optimization reinforcement_learning causal_inference graphical_models statistics murphy.susan in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:1a9b6828e858/ 2014-01-02T17:56:44+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1312.1277 cshalizi to:NB low-regret_learning bandit_problems optimization decision_theory re:growing_ensemble_project https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:1b8cc839aa66/ 2013-12-04T20:43:31+00:00 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.103.7.2790 cshalizi to:NB decision_theory bayesianism https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:c1f28b9bac38/ 2013-11-18T13:59:56+00:00 http://asset2013.org/archivo/ficheros/Microeconomics/19-CUHADAROGLU-TUGCE.pdf cshalizi to:NB to_read decision_theory social_influence re:homophily_and_confounding https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:34b0356b982e/ 2013-10-21T15:45:36+00:00 http://www.pnas.org/content/110/39/E3704.abstract cshalizi to:NB biochemical_networks decision_theory signal_transduction biological_computation biology https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:1d93863b9998/ 2013-07-02T03:17:00+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1307.0473 cshalizi distributed_systems learning_theory low-regret_learning risk_vs_uncertainty social_life_of_the_mind kith_and_kin raginsky.maxim re:democratic_cognition in_NB decision_theory re:knightian_uncertainty have_read markov_models https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:27a152dd8649/ 2013-06-23T00:10:13+00:00 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.51.2.496 cshalizi to:NB economics bounded_rationality decision_theory decision-making selten.reinhard social_science_methodology https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:f09dd742d2af/ 2013-06-10T18:49:29+00:00 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1023%2FA%3A1022899518027 cshalizi to:NB to_read bias-variance to_teach:undergrad-ADA to_teach:data-mining prediction decision_theory https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:75a5102c9d5c/ 2013-05-27T17:02:36+00:00 http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/bets-do-not-necessarily-reveal-beliefs.html cshalizi decision_theory gives_economists_a_bad_name evisceration prediction https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:da2bc29209d0/ 2013-02-07T17:13:35+00:00 http://www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/its-not-you-its-quantitative-cost-benefit-analysis#.URO1r9JCDZA.twitter cshalizidecision_theory funny:malicious funny:because_its_true practices_relating_to_the_transmission_of_genetic_information via:kjhealy https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:02b64af71073/ 2013-01-19T14:43:43+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1301.3840 cshalizi to:NB decision_theory statistics estimation koller.daphne https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:16ba9777a087/ 2012-11-06T17:33:20+00:00 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.26.4.43 cshalizi economics decision_theory cost-benefit_analysis in_NB https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:1eac574df7d0/ 2012-07-25T17:32:16+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1208.3213 cshalizi ergodic_theory decision_theory information_theory van_handel.ramon stochastic_processes via:mraginsky have_read in_NB https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:1348f0a57d21/ 2012-07-19T22:32:00+00:00 http://www-stat.stanford.edu/~cgates/PERSI/papers/thinking.pdf cshalizi decision_theory funny:academic funny:because_its_true diaconis.persi https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:48cecf01eaa2/ 2012-06-20T17:33:38+00:00 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jel.50.2.368 cshalizi to:NB economics institutions bowles.samuel experimental_economics mechanism_design decision_theory discipline_and_punish https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:e8030afa0758/ 2012-06-02T00:10:51+00:00 http://infostructuralist.wordpress.com/2012/06/01/information-theory-in-economics-part-i-rational-inattention/ cshaliziinformation_theory decision_theory optimization economics raginsky.maxim https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:0bf2bbb32fe5/ 2012-02-15T13:24:07+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1202.3079 cshalizi online_learning decision_theory optimization re:growing_ensemble_project cesa-bianchi.nicolo kakade.sham bubeck.sebastien in_NB bandit_problems https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:d3172d33e293/