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    <title>Pinboard (cshalizi)</title>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.chrisblattman.com/documents/research/2011.EconomicShocksAndConflict.pdf?9d7bd4"/>
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  </channel><item rdf:about="https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article-abstract/104/4/764/97753/The-Promise-and-Pitfalls-of-Conflict-Prediction?redirectedFrom=fulltext">
    <title>The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia | The Review of Economics and Statistics | MIT Press</title>
    <dc:date>2022-07-23T17:05:37+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://direct.mit.edu/rest/article-abstract/104/4/764/97753/The-Promise-and-Pitfalls-of-Conflict-Prediction?redirectedFrom=fulltext</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["How feasible is violence early-warning prediction? Colombia and Indonesia have unusually fine-grained data. We assemble two decades of local violent events alongside hundreds of annual risk factors. We attempt to predict violence one year ahead with a range of machine learning techniques. Our models reliably identify persistent, high-violence hot spots. Violence is not simply autoregressive, as detailed histories of disaggregated violence perform best, but socioeconomic data substitute well for these histories. Even with unusually rich data, however, our models poorly predict new outbreaks or escalations of violence. These “best-case” scenarios with annual data fall short of workable early-warning systems."]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB prediction violence political_science blattman.chris</dc:subject>
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<item rdf:about="https://chrisblattman.com/2022/01/31/why-i-do-not-expect-a-civil-war-in-america-and-what-does-worry-me/">
    <title>Why I do not expect a civil war in America (and what does worry me) - Chris Blattman</title>
    <dc:date>2022-02-01T15:19:11+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://chrisblattman.com/2022/01/31/why-i-do-not-expect-a-civil-war-in-america-and-what-does-worry-me/</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[This is very good.  (The bits about Polity scores are disturbing / infuriating / blackly funny.)]]></description>
<dc:subject>us_politics the_continuing_crises violence political_science have_read blattman.chris social_measurement via:?</dc:subject>
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<item rdf:about="http://www.chrisblattman.com/documents/research/2011.EconomicShocksAndConflict.pdf?9d7bd4">
    <title>“Economic Shocks and Conflict: The (Absence of?) Evidence from Commodity Prices</title>
    <dc:date>2012-02-17T17:11:47+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.chrisblattman.com/documents/research/2011.EconomicShocksAndConflict.pdf?9d7bd4</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Replication files":
http://www.chrisblattman.com/documents/data/shocks-conflict/Bazzi-Blattman.zip?9d7bd4]]></description>
<dc:subject>to:NB statistics to_read data_analysis economics political_economy war violence political_science blattman.chris to_teach:undergrad-ADA</dc:subject>
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<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:cshalizi/b:9f6b55893ac2/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="http://chrisblattman.blogspot.com/2008/03/holy-evaluation.html">
    <title>Imams love randomized controlled trials</title>
    <dc:date>2008-04-01T19:49:23+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://chrisblattman.blogspot.com/2008/03/holy-evaluation.html</link>
    <dc:creator>cshalizi</dc:creator><dc:subject>statistics development_policy funny:geeky experiments experimental_sociology via:aaronsw methodological_advice blattman.chris</dc:subject>
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