https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/public/ recent bookmarks from Vaguery 2024-11-08T13:25:27+00:00 https://donmoynihan.substack.com/p/what-happens-next?r=slfke&triedRedirect=true Vaguery anti-institutionalism American-cultural-assumptions politics prediction government https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:9af11c78fd96/ 2024-11-01T19:11:51+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.17095 Vaguery reservoir-computing nonlinear-dynamics neural-networks prediction time-series to-understand indistinguishable-from-magic https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:1e8a540476fb/ 2024-03-31T00:38:40+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.08708 Vaguery neural-networks transformers lattice-chemistry nonlinear-dynamics prediction o.O https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:32d24577b43d/ 2020-12-05T01:11:57+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.02179 Vaguery1, and even when successful, a reconstruction of the elementary rule (t=1) from t>1 data is not within the scope of what the neural network can deliver. We describe an alternative network-like method, based on constraint projections, where this is possible. From a single data item this method perfectly reconstructs not just the automaton rule but also the states in the time steps it did not see. For a unique reconstruction, the size of the initial state need only be large enough that it and the t−1 states it evolves into contain all possible automaton input patterns. We demonstrate the method on 1D binary cellular automata that take inputs from n adjacent cells. The unknown rules in our experiments are not restricted to simple rules derived from a few linear functions on the inputs (as in Game of Life), but include all 22n possible rules on n inputs. Our results extend to n=6, for which exhaustive rule-search is not feasible. By relaxing translational symmetry in space and also time, our method is attractive as a platform for the learning of binary data, since the discreteness of the variables does not pose the same challenge it does for gradient-based methods. ]]> via:cshalizi cellular-automata prediction learning-from-data rather-interesting robustness inference to-write-about consider:representation to-simulate https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:1a035887ab30/ 2020-05-03T11:42:47+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.02858 Vaguery operations-research planning prediction game-theory rather-interesting to-simulate toy-problems to-write-about consider:visualization consider:genetic-programming computational-complexity https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:68d802ac143e/ 2020-05-02T13:05:34+00:00 https://nyaspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/nyas.14321 Vaguery cognition prediction psychology experiment rather-interesting to-write-about consider:artificial-intelligence looking-to-see https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:20402e0303da/ 2020-01-22T00:47:27+00:00 http://simjs.com/index.html Vaguery discrete-event-simulator library javascript to-try simulation engineering-design prediction optimization https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:e6db3adfa73e/ 2019-07-25T11:13:57+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.02101 Vaguery social-networks prediction machine-learning marketing cart-before-the-horse to-write-about to-simulate consider:performance-measures consider:false-positives https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:e9218582ef1d/ 2019-06-12T13:53:34+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.06758 Vaguery machine-learning city-planning data-analysis looking-to-see prediction deep-learning to-write-about consider:data-sourcing https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:74a9aca209d1/ 2019-04-27T11:56:00+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1709.07662 Vaguery power-laws geology rather-interesting natural-experiments statistics prediction extreme-values to-write-about https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:f53f76f4e834/ 2019-03-03T13:39:04+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1101.0891 Vaguery modeling modeling-is-not-mathematics statistics prediction interpretability interestingness (they-forgot-that-one) philosophy-of-science multiobjective-optimization to-write-about https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:3abf85660a41/ 2018-03-10T13:34:53+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1801.00548 Vaguery modeling machine-learning prediction rather-interesting looking-to-see approximation algorithms to-write-about https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:1b0d4f68558d/ 2018-02-24T12:31:07+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.01092 Vaguery operations-research energy prediction time-series nudge-targets performance-measure to-write-about https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:3055b0ec07c1/ 2018-02-24T12:28:35+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.00194 Vaguery image-processing prediction nudge-targets consider:looking-to-see representation low-hanging-fruit https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:5014b730df49/ 2017-11-12T12:47:28+00:00 http://www.fharrell.com/2017/01/classification-vs-prediction.html Vaguery philosophy-of-engineering classification statistics machine-learning prediction to-write-about engineering-criticism https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:75301920af7d/ 2017-11-05T14:35:09+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1603.02597 Vaguery formal-languages automata consider:looking-to-see prediction modeling to-write-about https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:8442e47e6ed1/ 2017-10-15T11:43:13+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1501.03992 Vaguery cellular-automata computational-complexity prediction nudge-targets consider:looking-to-see to-write-about https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:5f077633a1c2/ 2017-09-30T12:46:19+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1702.03615v2 Vaguery mechanism-design prediction rather-interesting collective-behavior markets game-theory nudge-targets consider:representation https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:5011835b4860/ 2017-04-26T11:19:04+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.07510 Vaguery knot-theory inference rather-interesting prediction probability-theory nudge-targets consider:looking-to-see consider:rediscovery consider:feature-discovery https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:02ad6c2e29ad/ 2017-02-23T22:15:52+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1607.07086 Vaguery generative-models neural-networks rather-interesting time-series prediction to-write-about to-try nudge-targets consider:deneuralizing https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:a8a38bc25e99/ 2017-01-08T14:32:47+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1508.05837 Vaguery portfolio-theory operations-research financial-engineering time-series prediction models-and-modes nudge-targets consider:performance-measures consider:metaheuristics https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:6055ba5c2345/ 2016-10-31T12:53:34+00:00 https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.05058 Vaguery artificial-intelligence collective-intelligence collective-behavior prediction agent-based evolutionary-economics nudge-targets consider:representation to-write-about https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:8968781ed86f/ 2016-06-06T10:55:29+00:00 http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/05/27/055715?rss=1%2522 Vaguery bioinformatics deep-learning neural-networks machine-learning prediction nudge-targets consider:rediscovery https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:6d5a8c061369/ 2016-05-01T12:50:48+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1604.08354 Vaguery bioinformatics machine-learning systems-biology algorithms prediction nudge-targets consider:feature-discovery consider:representation https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:f945fc799b7b/ 2016-03-26T20:53:25+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1503.03332 Vaguery time-series data-analysis prediction industrial-design nudge-targets consider:pareto-GP symbolic-regression https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:7bd70675e16f/ 2015-12-30T12:42:29+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1505.07414 Vaguery time-series prediction regression feature-construction feature-extraction machine-learning nudge-targets consider:compare-to-Pareto-GP https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:06c7b0e6f5af/ 2015-12-28T14:07:37+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.03492 Vaguery financial-engineering time-series feature-extraction inference prediction nudge-targets consider:looking-to-see https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:58da28e0be5b/ 2015-12-14T12:29:02+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1505.01888 Vaguery knowledge-engineering subjective-modeling prediction wisdom-of-crowds system-of-professions statistics nudge-targets schools-of-thought consider:performance-measures https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:e23c92b2c508/ 2015-12-13T11:38:04+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1411.1528 Vaguery pharmaceutical multiobjective-optimization prediction classification interactions nudge-targets engineering-design network-theory inference algorithms https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:39cf0733542b/ 2015-11-01T10:45:35+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1406.7563 Vaguery aggregation wisdom-of-crowds prediction probability-theory economics via:cshalizi nudge-targets consider:robustness consider:feature-discovery https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:2e04f7d8eddc/ 2015-09-12T20:54:15+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1507.08455 Vaguery complex-systems nonlinear-dynamics cellular-automata prediction rather-interesting formalization nudge-targets consider:looking-to-see https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:d94342158e41/ 2015-09-12T13:23:20+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1505.05921 Vaguery autonomous-cars robotics inference feature-extraction prediction nudge-targets consider:rediscovery https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:f1ae6c7a19ec/ 2015-09-10T12:54:42+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1503.01678 Vaguery nonlinear-dynamics prediction chaos time-series statistics modeling nudge-targets rather-interesting https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:6841a255ca5c/ 2015-08-29T11:39:28+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1210.2706 Vaguery complex-systems nonlinear-dynamics prediction approximation rather-interesting nudge-targets https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:5ebb9be83096/ 2015-07-20T12:19:48+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1406.0140 Vaguery collective-intelligence algorithms machine-learning prediction performance-measure nudge-targets consider:looking-to-see https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:5c1597841048/ 2015-06-14T15:44:43+00:00 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2308659 Vaguery financial-engineering back-testing statistics models amusing rather-interesting prediction models-and-modes https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:dc73868d0f27/ 2015-06-07T12:43:50+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1505.06472 Vaguery data-fusion collective-intelligence wisdom-of-crowds algorithms statistics prediction rather-interesting nudge-targets consider:robustness https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:b424078ddfaa/ 2015-06-07T12:39:49+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1505.05310 Vaguery machine-learning prediction online-learning algorithms statistics models-and-modes to-consider https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:64d92867362e/ 2015-05-26T11:01:10+00:00 http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2015/04/24/018507 Vaguery bioinformatics molecular-machinery inference boolean-networks gene-regulatory-networks data-fusion prediction algorithms nudge-targets https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:f54447946d81/ 2015-05-25T12:14:19+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1403.6804 Vaguery modeling data-analysis prediction statistics nudge-targets simulation data-cleaning https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:06ac1fdb8efd/ 2015-05-25T12:05:32+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1504.01018 Vaguery network-theory models statistics prediction nudge-targets inference https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:fdea4a25e918/ 2015-03-16T11:19:44+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1404.6823 Vaguery information-theory time-series prediction stress-testing feature-construction rather-interesting horse-races nudge-targets consider:stress-testing performance-space-analysis https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:56f6d48e7fdf/ 2015-02-08T15:37:17+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1412.3678 Vaguery percolation network-theory graph-theory algorithms prediction rather-interesting nudge-targets https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:3627be898c29/ 2015-02-08T12:08:33+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1501.07077 Vaguery bioinformatics gene-networks network-theory machine-learning systems-biology prediction algorithms nudge-targets feature-extraction cancer https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:35f4d81b66f5/ 2015-02-06T12:15:21+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1403.5356 Vaguery information-theory nonlinear-dynamics prediction statistics machine-learning physics! nudge-targets consider:rediscovery https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:2b030bcdd005/ 2015-02-02T16:50:41+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1411.3904 Vaguery data-cleaning feature-extraction dimension-reduction time-series algorithms prediction nudge-targets https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:e4edd96ac5d4/ 2014-12-08T11:30:56+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1405.2432 Vaguery armed-bandit-problems information-theory machine-learning prediction risk-management inference nudge-targets game-theory formalization performance-measure multiobjective-optimization https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:cc39297407cc/ 2014-11-14T12:20:58+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1409.3379 Vaguery citation summary-statistics h-index social-networks models-and-modes academic-culture prediction rather-interesting counterexamples https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:6dacbd75bc6a/ 2014-11-08T13:55:42+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1408.6589 Vaguery databases prediction estimation nudge-targets online-learning rather-interesting computational-complexity https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:755d7ba9a016/ 2014-11-08T12:45:54+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1406.4607 Vaguery social-networks pragmatism what-good-is-it-really modeling prediction rather-interesting https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:5d9db2e1b385/ 2014-11-05T13:04:26+00:00 http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2014/10/14/002287 Vaguery systems-biology models prediction validation-and-verification rather-interesting theoretical-biology theory-and-practice-sitting-in-a-tree https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:4304c7fbfd90/ 2014-10-16T12:38:05+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1407.1889 Vaguery computational-complexity open-questions prediction classification nudge-targets consider:summarization consider:probabilistic-thinking consider:estimation consider:intuition-of-a-sort https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:6cd5ff0ecb50/ 2014-09-28T12:18:44+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6562 Vaguery microbiology theoretical-biology cell-biology model prediction physiology philosophy-of-science https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:2c9c58235b58/ 2014-09-07T10:50:59+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1408.3333 Vaguery statistics estimation prediction classification algorithms sampling https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:ef19a46b4021/ 2014-08-22T12:32:16+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1212.1740 Vaguery pattern-formation prediction models complex-systems emergent-design nudge-targets rather-interesting discrete-mathematics dynamical-systems https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:882eaa11291b/ 2014-07-27T12:22:41+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1407.0952 Vaguery complex-systems prediction network-theory robustness experiment simulation nudge-targets interesting https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:2b0d15e2fab4/ 2014-04-19T07:58:02+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1205.4265 Vaguery information-theory statistics prediction models synergy learning-from-data nudge https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:8eeae2c1c345/ 2014-04-07T12:06:37+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1311.1301 Vaguery protein-folding machine-learning partial-solutions prediction nudge-targets consider:more details https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:a5f9740f8e49/ 2014-04-04T12:06:54+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1311.6536 Vaguery prediction time-series algorithms collective-intelligence nudge-targets consider:stress-testing consider:detector-extraction https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:c2fb467323fc/ 2014-04-03T22:15:41+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1403.7373 Vaguery sudoku performance-measure problem-solving prediction classification nudge-targets consider:stress-testing consider:performance-space constraint-satisfaction https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:be1cf0397b63/ 2014-04-03T22:13:35+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6471 Vaguery prediction energy energy-grid public-policy statistics nudge-targets consider:numerous meteorology https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:b27926cdbf24/ 2014-03-17T12:09:11+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6826 Vaguery image-processing 3d attention prediction nudge-targets interesting machine-learning random-forests algorithms https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:c28a4b08067c/ 2014-03-17T12:04:43+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1401.8081 Vaguery simulation cheminformatics energy-landscapes prediction models nudge-targets https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:2ae70f236cf6/ 2014-03-10T18:11:26+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1401.3870 Vaguery via:cshalizi prediction modeling statistics nudge-targets representation interesting planning local https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:2fd6490ed027/ 2014-02-26T21:36:11+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1307.7306 Vaguery image-analysis video algorithms prediction nudge-targets consider:representation https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:b64c7bbe5d6a/ 2014-01-18T14:45:42+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1302.7149 Vaguery simulation prediction collective-intelligence aggregation algorithms interesting nudge-targets https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:1c5eaa345220/ 2013-12-20T11:52:03+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1304.6257 Vaguery social-networks evolutionary-algorithms hey-I-know-this-guy prediction interesting nudge-targets consider:expanded-ontology https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:adccbdf66844/ 2013-12-19T13:17:12+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1310.1553 Vaguery deep-learning operations-research scheduling algorithms prediction nudge-targets consider:symbolic-regression https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:9f240161d7a6/ 2013-12-04T21:39:19+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1311.1704 Vaguery recommendations data-mining modeling prediction feature-extraction algorithms nudge-targets https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:03dd54eb16f7/ 2013-12-04T21:35:08+00:00 http://arxiv.org/abs/1310.8220 Vaguery hey-I-know-this-guy social-networks citation academic-culture prediction https://pinboard.in/ https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:1d33a3dd8bd5/