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    <title>Pinboard (Vaguery)</title>
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    <description>recent bookmarks from Vaguery</description>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2011/05/the-economic-outlook-as-of-may-2011-yes-this-is-called-the-dismal-science-why-do-you-ask.html"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.siliconvalleywatcher.com/mt/archives/2008/10/the_size_of_der.php"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120027155742887331.html"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fi4fzvQ6I-o"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/09/commercial-real-estate-prices-may-drop.html"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/06/bear-stearns-and-vagaries-of-models.html"/>
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  </channel><item rdf:about="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/08/has-the-shale-bubble-already-burst.html">
    <title>Has the Shale Bubble Already Burst? « naked capitalism</title>
    <dc:date>2013-08-31T14:22:35+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/08/has-the-shale-bubble-already-burst.html</link>
    <dc:creator>Vaguery</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[The sharp inflection points for shale gas wells result from a well-known drawback of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies. Production peaks for a year or two but then the initial flow peters out. Overall lifespan of shale wells in Texas is about 8 years. Drilling company must continuously invest in the new wells or refrack the old ones. In comparison conventional, vertically drilled wells demonstrate more stable output for 20-30 years.

Fracking business model in 2009-2012 was based on enormous cashflow from investors attracted by tall promises of natural gas bonanza. At the same time shale wells were considerably underperforming in dollar terms making the whole business a very risky venture. Lack of statistics was sugar coated by lucrative promises.]]></description>
<dc:subject>energy bubble public-policy financial-crisis startup-culture-must-die</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:31dea8a223fc/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/t:energy"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/t:bubble"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/t:public-policy"/>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/t:startup-culture-must-die"/>
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<item rdf:about="http://scripting.com/stories/2012/04/19/itsDefinitelyABubble.html">
    <title>Scripting News: It's definitely a bubble</title>
    <dc:date>2012-04-20T09:46:36+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://scripting.com/stories/2012/04/19/itsDefinitelyABubble.html</link>
    <dc:creator>Vaguery</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["They're turning universities into incubators. It's happening at NYU and Harvard, two schools I have some familiarity with. Probably everywhere else too, to some extent. But I'd guess these two schools are pretty leading edge. Stanford has been there for a few generations."]]></description>
<dc:subject>bubble entrepreneurship-as-pathology startup-culture-must-die ayup</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:bce38d2b80d2/</dc:identifier>
<taxo:topics><rdf:Bag>	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/t:bubble"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/t:entrepreneurship-as-pathology"/>
	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/t:startup-culture-must-die"/>
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<item rdf:about="http://www.uic.edu/htbin/cgiwrap/bin/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/3142/2603">
    <title>Odlyzko</title>
    <dc:date>2011-09-29T12:48:36+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.uic.edu/htbin/cgiwrap/bin/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/3142/2603</link>
    <dc:creator>Vaguery</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Gullibility is the principal cause of bubbles. Investors and the general public get snared by a “beautiful illusion” and throw caution to the wind. Attempts to identify and control bubbles are complicated by the fact that the authorities who might naturally be expected to take action have often (especially in recent years) been among the most gullible, and were cheerleaders for the exuberant behavior. Hence what is needed is an objective measure of gullibility."]]></description>
<dc:subject>bubble economic-crisis economics social-dynamics pragmatism-it-ain't</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:a926f364c0bc/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="http://www.feld.com/wp/archives/2011/06/how-not-to-start-a-relationship.html?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed:+FeldThoughts+(Feld+Thoughts)">
    <title>How Not To Start A Relationship</title>
    <dc:date>2011-06-01T18:15:01+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.feld.com/wp/archives/2011/06/how-not-to-start-a-relationship.html?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed:+FeldThoughts+(Feld+Thoughts)</link>
    <dc:creator>Vaguery</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["It amazes me that 50+ people could suddenly come out of the woodwork in an effort to “build a new relationship that’s not really a relationship” thinking it would give them an opportunity, or even an advantage, in the context of a set of hot companies.

When I think about the relationships I’ve developed, whether it be with investment bankers, LPs, co-investors, or anyone else, they evolve over a period of time. They don’t require boondoggles or fancy things; they require sincerity and substantive interaction over a long period of time. Then, when there are moments of opportunity, these are the people that I go to (and hopefully who come to me.)

There suddenly seem to be an abundance of “transaction relationships” out there. Entrepreneurs beware."]]></description>
<dc:subject>economic-development-will-destroy-the-city bubble venture-capital business-culture via:pkedrosky</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:cab252a60ee6/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2011/05/the-economic-outlook-as-of-may-2011-yes-this-is-called-the-dismal-science-why-do-you-ask.html">
    <title>The Economic Outlook as of May 2011: Yes, This Is Called the Dismal Science. Why Do You Ask? - Grasping Reality with a Flexible Trunk</title>
    <dc:date>2011-05-26T12:56:42+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2011/05/the-economic-outlook-as-of-may-2011-yes-this-is-called-the-dismal-science-why-do-you-ask.html</link>
    <dc:creator>Vaguery</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["As the foundations of this crisis were laid, there were always arguments against massive regulatory intervention to deal with it. Those arguments always sounded convincing. The stayed convincing even as the situation transformed itself from a justified boom in long duration assets driven by advances in diversification and by capital inflows pushing down interest rates, to froth, to irrational exuberance, to a full-fledged bubble."]]></description>
<dc:subject>financial-crisis hindsight economics bubble woops</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:09dd63a1446c/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="http://www.siliconvalleywatcher.com/mt/archives/2008/10/the_size_of_der.php">
    <title>The Size of Derivatives Bubble = $190K Per Person on Planet</title>
    <dc:date>2009-03-17T23:21:43+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.siliconvalleywatcher.com/mt/archives/2008/10/the_size_of_der.php</link>
    <dc:creator>Vaguery</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["According to various distinguished sources including the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel, Switzerland -- the central bankers' bank -- the amount of outstanding derivatives worldwide as of December 2007 crossed USD 1.144 Quadrillion, ie, USD 1,144 Trillion. The main categories of the USD 1.144 Quadrillion derivatives market were the following:"
]]></description>
<dc:subject>economics economic-crisis finance derivatives financial-crisis bubble politics future risk credit-default-swaps</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:cfaa2fff1162/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120027155742887331.html">
    <title>Heard on the Street - WSJ.com</title>
    <dc:date>2008-01-15T14:51:01+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120027155742887331.html</link>
    <dc:creator>Vaguery</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[When scientists do money
]]></description>
<dc:subject>Magnetar economy hedge-funds derivatives trading mortgages bubble investment risk</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:29041e8dce92/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fi4fzvQ6I-o">
    <title>YouTube - Here Comes Another Bubble - The Richter Scales</title>
    <dc:date>2007-12-07T13:35:48+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fi4fzvQ6I-o</link>
    <dc:creator>Vaguery</dc:creator><dc:subject>via:logista bubble web2.0 fad extraordinary-popular-delusions parody YouTube</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:7da3c9ab3af6/</dc:identifier>
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</item>
<item rdf:about="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/09/commercial-real-estate-prices-may-drop.html">
    <title>naked capitalism: Commercial Real Estate Prices May Drop 15% in Next Year</title>
    <dc:date>2007-09-09T22:03:07+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/09/commercial-real-estate-prices-may-drop.html</link>
    <dc:creator>Vaguery</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Sam Zell is widely regarded as one of the savviest value investors around. The fact that Zell, an old hand in real estate, was cashing out was widely seen as the sign of a market top."
]]></description>
<dc:subject>real-estate finance markets economics bubble correction downturn depression recession</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:14a0872511d6/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/06/bear-stearns-and-vagaries-of-models.html">
    <title>naked capitalism: Bear Stearns and the Vagaries of Models</title>
    <dc:date>2007-06-24T20:09:49+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/06/bear-stearns-and-vagaries-of-models.html</link>
    <dc:creator>Vaguery</dc:creator><dc:subject>finance economics economy USA investment models decision-making hedge-funds bubble</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:c14864fff2ff/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/06/housing-total-inventory.html">
    <title>Calculated Risk: Housing: Total Inventory</title>
    <dc:date>2007-06-24T16:36:55+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/06/housing-total-inventory.html</link>
    <dc:creator>Vaguery</dc:creator><dc:subject>via:mitten real-estate economy economics public-policy finance USA threats bubble</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:Vaguery/b:cd931de370cb/</dc:identifier>
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