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    <description>recent bookmarks from MarcK</description>
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  </channel><item rdf:about="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20181219">
    <title>Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations - American Economic Association</title>
    <dc:date>2020-09-02T08:25:11+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20181219</link>
    <dc:creator>MarcK</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[" We study the rationality of individual and consensus forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), who examine predictability of forecast errors from forecast revisions. We find that individual forecasters typically overreact to news, while consensus forecasts underreact relative to full-information rational expectations. We reconcile these findings within a diagnostic expectations version of a dispersed information learning model. Structural estimation indicates that departures from Bayesian updating in the form of diagnostic overreaction capture important variation in forecast biases across different series, yielding a belief distortion parameter similar to estimates obtained in other settings."]]></description>
<dc:subject>AER expectations-measurement expectations-data macroeconomics</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:MarcK/b:e81e0205c733/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://fivebooks.com/best-books/economics-coronavirus-ricardo-reis/">
    <title>The Economics of Coronavirus | Five Books Expert Recommendations</title>
    <dc:date>2020-07-26T07:29:56+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://fivebooks.com/best-books/economics-coronavirus-ricardo-reis/</link>
    <dc:creator>MarcK</dc:creator><dc:subject>corona economics ricardo.reis macroeconomics books</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:MarcK/b:94df8d87c99a/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/aer.20141625?return_path=/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20141625&amp;etoc=1">
    <title>AEAweb Journal Articles Display</title>
    <dc:date>2019-10-01T08:44:57+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/aer.20141625?return_path=/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20141625&amp;etoc=1</link>
    <dc:creator>MarcK</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[" Abstract: This paper develops a new approach to test for downward wage rigidity by examining transitory shocks to labor demand (i.e., rainfall) across 600 Indian districts. Nominal wages rise during positive shocks but do not fall during droughts. In addition, transitory positive shocks generate ratcheting: after they have dissipated, wages do not adjust back down. Ratcheting reduces employment by 9 percent, indicating that rigidities distort employment levels. Inflation, which is unaffected by local rainfall, enables downward real wage adjustments—offering causal evidence for its labor market effects. Surveys suggest that individuals believe nominal wage cuts are unfair and lead to effort reductions. "

This sounds like some really interesting stuff, even if the rainfall isn't fully exogenous (can't remember who showed that and how much of a problem that'd be here - Sarsons?).]]></description>
<dc:subject>supreet.kaur **** inflation behavioral-economics macroeconomics to:read</dc:subject>
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<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:MarcK/b:5e541ef35779/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.33.2.89">
    <title>American Economic Association</title>
    <dc:date>2019-05-06T15:44:30+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.33.2.89</link>
    <dc:creator>MarcK</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["This paper takes stock of what we have learned from the "Renaissance" in fiscal research in the ten years since the financial crisis. I first discuss the new innovations in methodology and various strengths and weaknesses of the main approaches to estimating fiscal multipliers. Reviewing the estimates, I come to the surprising conclusion that the bulk of the estimates for average spending and tax change multipliers lie in a fairly narrow range, 0.6 to 1 for spending multipliers and -2 to -3 for tax change multipliers. However, I identify economic circumstances in which multipliers lie outside those ranges. Finally, I review the debate on whether multipliers were higher for the 2009 Obama stimulus spending in the United States or for fiscal consolidations in Europe. "]]></description>
<dc:subject>taxation multiplier macroeconomics AEA:JEP</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:MarcK/b:e7ba6d47cbf1/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20160576">
    <title>American Economic Association</title>
    <dc:date>2019-05-03T07:25:05+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20160576</link>
    <dc:creator>MarcK</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["We propose a generalization of the rational expectations framework to allow for temporarily unstable paths. Our approach introduces multiplicative sunspot shocks and it yields drifting parameters and stochastic volatility. Then, we provide an econometric strategy to estimate this generalized model on the data. The methodology allows the data to choose between different possible alternatives: determinacy, indeterminacy, and temporary instability. We apply our methodology to US inflation dynamics in the 1970s through the lens of a simple New Keynesian model. When temporarily unstable paths are allowed, the data unambiguously select them to explain the stagflation period in the 1970s."]]></description>
<dc:subject>sunspots multiple-equilibria out-of-equilibrium disequilibrium AER macroeconomics beliefs</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:MarcK/b:51f0bb8c8ee7/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/134/2/785/5266398">
    <title>Sell Low and Buy High: Arbitrage and Local Price Effects in Kenyan Markets* | The Quarterly Journal of Economics | Oxford Academic</title>
    <dc:date>2019-04-15T17:16:45+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/134/2/785/5266398</link>
    <dc:creator>MarcK</dc:creator><description><![CDATA["Large and regular seasonal price fluctuations in local grain markets appear to offer African farmers substantial intertemporal arbitrage opportunities, but these opportunities remain largely unexploited. Small-scale farmers are commonly observed to “sell low and buy high,” rather than the reverse. In a field experiment in Kenya, we show that credit market imperfections limit farmers’ abilities to move grain intertemporally. Providing timely access to credit allows farmers to buy at lower prices and sell at higher prices, increasing farm revenues and generating a return on investment of 29%. To understand general equilibrium (GE) effects of these changes in behavior, we vary the density of loan offers across locations. We document significant effects of the credit intervention on seasonal price fluctuations in local grain markets, and show that these GE effects shape individual-level profitability estimates. In contrast to existing experimental work, the results indicate a setting in which microcredit can improve firm profitability, and suggest that GE effects can substantially shape microcredit’s effectiveness. In particular, failure to consider these GE effects could lead to underestimates of the social welfare benefits of microcredit interventions."]]></description>
<dc:subject>finance GE macroeconomics experiment lauren.bergquist ted.miguel</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:MarcK/b:f8580e764dbe/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="http://www.cesifo-group.de/de/ifoHome/events/seminars/Muenchner-Seminare/Archive/mucsem_20180611_Varoufakis.html">
    <title>CESifo-Gruppe München - Why Germany Cannot and Should Not Pay to Save the Eurozone</title>
    <dc:date>2018-12-28T14:42:35+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.cesifo-group.de/de/ifoHome/events/seminars/Muenchner-Seminare/Archive/mucsem_20180611_Varoufakis.html</link>
    <dc:creator>MarcK</dc:creator><dc:subject>EU economics macroeconomics video yannis.varoufakis</dc:subject>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:MarcK/b:b06c55383d1f/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="http://www.bradford-delong.com/2018/04/the-dark-age-of-macroeconomics-and-advanced-economies-lost-decade.html#more">
    <title>[untitled]</title>
    <dc:date>2018-04-16T06:46:40+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.bradford-delong.com/2018/04/the-dark-age-of-macroeconomics-and-advanced-economies-lost-decade.html#more</link>
    <dc:creator>MarcK</dc:creator><dc:subject>macroeconomics FinancialCrises economics-and-policy</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:MarcK/b:9956f5b067f6/</dc:identifier>
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	<rdf:li rdf:resource="https://pinboard.in/u:MarcK/t:economics-and-policy"/>
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<item rdf:about="http://www.quantamagazine.org/20140903-the-thermodynamic-theory-of-ecology/">
    <title>The Thermodynamic Theory of Ecology | Quanta Magazine</title>
    <dc:date>2014-11-05T18:42:32+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.quantamagazine.org/20140903-the-thermodynamic-theory-of-ecology/</link>
    <dc:creator>MarcK</dc:creator><dc:subject>entropy information_theory macroeconomics universality have_read ***</dc:subject>
<dc:source>https://pinboard.in/</dc:source>
<dc:identifier>https://pinboard.in/u:MarcK/b:46c24ac9a126/</dc:identifier>
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<item rdf:about="http://www.cambridge.org/us/knowledge/isbn/item6852611/?site_locale=en_US">
    <title>Transforming Modern Macroeconomics - Academic and Professional Books - Cambridge University Press</title>
    <dc:date>2013-02-14T03:05:56+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://www.cambridge.org/us/knowledge/isbn/item6852611/?site_locale=en_US</link>
    <dc:creator>MarcK</dc:creator><dc:subject>books:noted economics macroeconomics via:CSR</dc:subject>
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<item rdf:about="http://slackwire.blogspot.com/2012/02/noah-clue.html">
    <title>The Slack Wire: Noah Clue</title>
    <dc:date>2012-02-05T20:49:52+00:00</dc:date>
    <link>http://slackwire.blogspot.com/2012/02/noah-clue.html</link>
    <dc:creator>MarcK</dc:creator><description><![CDATA[Stolen from CSR. ]]></description>
<dc:subject>economics macroeconomics financial_crisis_of_2007-- evisceration mason.j.w. smith.noah via:cshalizi</dc:subject>
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